*(additional VAT may be added depending on your country – currently US, Canada, Asia have no added VAT but most European countries do)

We’re sure you’ll reap the benefits – don’t forget to contact us with any Elliott Wave questions – Peter is always keen to hear you views, queries and comments.

Visit us @ www.wavetrack.com

We’re sure you’ll reap the benefits. Don’t forget to contact us with any Elliott Wave questions. Our EW-team is always keen to hear your views, queries, and comments.

Visit us @ www.wavetrack.com

New Stock Indices Mid-Year Video Update now available!

by WaveTrack International| June 23, 2023 | No Comments

Stock Indices Mid-Year Video Update 2023

Hightlights

Central Banks

Central Banks are still warning markets that the fight against inflation is ongoing. This determined approach is perpetuating their hawkish resolve. Yet, should interest rates remain elevated, there is little doubt that major stock indices will struggle to maintain this year’s advances. The deteriorating bank balance sheets caused by deposit withdrawals are expected to trigger a second banking crisis. Perfectly following this year’s earlier debacle. Furthermore, we believe that systemic financial credit risk provides the catalyst for a short but sharp recession in developed markets.

Banking Sector Risk

The biggest downside risk remains in the banking sector. February/March’s meltdown in U.S. regional banks is only the beginning of a more widespread contagion. Rapidly declining deposit withdrawals due to banks’ reluctance to pass on interest rate rises to customers will cause another round of balance sheet problems.

U.S. Sectors

U.S. Sectors show another period of Value (SVX) outperforming Growth (SGX) over the next several months, suggesting an overall stock index decline prompting defensive or safe-haven strategies. Banking sector weakest although declines expected in Dow Jones Transportation, XLF Financials, NBI Biotechnology, XLV Healthcare and XLY Consumer Discretionary.

Furthermore, we will discuss in detail why we believe that Continental European and Asian stock indices are expected to decline by double-digit percentages during the next several months. Stay informed about the latest market predictions and analysis with our Video Mid-Year report.

Quite a Year so far for Stock Indices!

This year’s stock market recovery from last September’s/October’s 2022 lows has overturned the extreme bearish sentiment that occurred eight months ago. Initial gains were met with derision as central banks continued their rate-hiking cycle which began in March ’22. With headline inflation surging higher in both the U.S. and Europe, central banks had little choice but to maintain aggressive monetary tightening.

Ordinarily, money supply constraints would be bearish for stock markets, but last year’s (2022’s) sell-off came as a surprise to markets and by the time prices bottomed last September/October, sentiment was so bearish, it held back expectations of a sustained recovery. In fact, this was reflected over the next several months in various investment bank fund manager surveys – as the months ticked by, large asset managers held onto high cash levels, reluctant to buy back into the market so soon after lightening-up on positioning during last year’s sell-off. Expectations of a recession dominated thinking as CB’s continued rate-hiking cycles.

Stock markets ignored the fundamentals, rising initially modestly, hesitantly, with the benchmark S&P 500 gaining +20% per cent by early-May ’23. Only in June have prices begun to accelerate, mainly because of improving sentiment over the introduction of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and ChatGPT technologies, especially reflected in a narrow band of big-tech stocks like Nvidia Corp.

We’re now in a situation where the AI frenzy has turned mainstream, pushing other index benchmarks higher, attracting those big asset fund managers to re-enter the market. The big question everyone’s asking is whether this is a sustainable uptrend that began from last September’s/October’s lows? Or are central banks going to trigger a recession? Persistently high interest rate levels could precipitate another banking crisis. This latest mid-year report attempts to answer those questions.

New Stock Indices Mid-Year Video Update 2023 – PART I/III

This exclusive Stock Indices Mid-Year Video Update from WaveTrack International is a rare gem that presents the future trends using an innovative approach based on the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP), in addition to the correlation between Cycles, Fib-Price-Ratios, Sentiment extremes, and Economic data trends.

You don’t want to miss out on this unique opportunity to expand your financial knowledge, and we’re thrilled to invite you to join us on this exciting journey. With our video subscription details listed below, you’re just a few moments away from gaining access to valuable insights that will enhance your investment strategy.

WaveTrack’s team of experts offers you unprecedented access to a comprehensive analysis of the stock market that cannot be found anywhere else.

Most sincerely,

Peter Goodburn
Founder and Chief Elliott Wave Analyst
WaveTrack International

Contents Stock Indices Mid-Year Video Update 2023

Charts: 91 | Video: 2 hours 30 mins.

CONTACT US NOW VIA EMAIL – SELECT YOUR PACKAGE

Single Video – *$49.00 – PART I Stock Index Mid-Year Video Update 2023 (June 2023) or send us an email to services@wavetrack.com
Triple Package offer – *$99.00 (saving 33%)! – PART I – PART II – PART III (June – August ’23)

*(additional VAT may be added depending on your country – currently US, Canada, Asia have no added VAT but most European countries do)

PARTS II & III will be available in a few weeks’ time – we’re working on it!

HOW CAN YOU GET THE VIDEO FORECAST?

To receive your VIDEO UPDATE please click here to contact us.
– Please state if you wish to purchase the SINGLE VIDEO – Stock Index Mid-Year Video Update 2023 for USD *49.00 and send us an email to services@wavetrack.com?
– Or opt for the TRIPLE PACKAGE for USD *99.00 in total?
– Next -depending on you preference- we will send you a credit card payment link (for this we need your name and address) or alternatively, a PayPal payment request and provide you with the video link & PDF report once payment is confirmed. Please know the reply can take up to 6 hours. But rest assured we will give our best to provide you with the information as soon as possible!

*(additional VAT may be added depending on your country of residence. Currently, the US, Canada, Asia have no added VAT but most European countries do)

We’re sure you’ll reap the benefits – don’t forget to contact us with any Elliott Wave questions – Peter is always keen to hear your views, queries, and comments.

Visit us @ www.wavetrack.com

EW-Commodities Outlook March 2023

by WaveTrack International| March 6, 2023 | No Comments

Commodities – Main Drivers for Prices are…

The main drivers for commodity prices are inflation, interest rates, the US$ dollar and the impact of the reopening of China’s economy.

Fig #1 – The Race to Raise Interest Rates – Source: Refinitive

Central Banks have slowed the pace of interest rate hikes during the last couple of months basis declines in U.S. CPI from last June’s 9.10% peak – but a recent surge in U.S. employment numbers has shown that large corporations are managing the rise in interest rates far better than most expected.

Fig #3 – US CPI – Monthly – Forecast by WaveTrack International

Regardless, Elliott Wave analysis expects an uptick in CPI and inflation expectations over the next few months before it turns down again later this year.

Government bond yields are trending higher again, although this wasn’t expected by consensus opinion earlier this year where a peak in inflation and a mild recession was mainstream – that’s changing too – the Fed’s mantra ‘Higher Rates for Longer’ is taking hold and this is one aspect that is expected to weigh heavily on Commodity Prices during the next several months.

The effects of a recession in western economies is not without risk – in fact, we’re expecting a short but sharp recession this year – and that’s despite the markets’ expectation of a reopening of China’s economy following three years of lockdown.

US$ Dollar

Fig #7 – Kimble Technical US Dollar Positioning – Source: Kimble

The US$ Dollar’s extreme long-positioning towards the end of last year has been completely reversed over the last 5 months – if anything, there are early signs of it being oversold although there’s a risk during March of one more decline before a multi-month upside correction begins. The dollar’s movements are more critical for precious metals as this month’s analysis shows.

CRB Index

Fig #11 – Thompson/Reuters CRB Index – Daily – by WaveTrack International

The CRB Reuters-Jefferies index is set to continue its counter-trend decline that began from the June ’22 high of 329.59 later this month, maybe delayed into early-April although a postponement is more reflected in the way energy contracts are continuing to range trade whilst precious metals begin their next advance.

Base Metals

Base Metals can benefit from a short-term dollar decline this month, but overall, are expected lower during the next several months, including Copper and Aluminium. Energy markets like Crude and Brent oil are in transitory correction patterns since December’s lows – they can finish by month-end, but the direction is still lower, progressing last year’s counter-trend declines that began from the March ’22 highs.

Watch the latest amazing EW-Commodities video and get more insights about s trading opportunities in our latest EW-Commodities Outlook report and video update!

New Currencies + Interest Rate Video Outlook 2023

by WaveTrack International| February 25, 2023 | No Comments

Currencies and Interest Rate Video Outlook 2023

Inflation Ticks Higher before Resuming Lower – Short but Sharp Recession for 2023

Currencies and Interest Rates Highlights

Outlook Preview Currencies

• Central Banks (CBs) have overestimated the impact from 6-month declines in headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) prices – whilst CB’s are still maintaining their interest rate-hiking cycles, they’ve slowed the pace as they approach perceived ceilings – market participants have expected a Fed-Pivot but this is unlikely right now – Elliott Wave analysis expects further interest rate rises through Q1/2 ’23 before a collapse lower afterwards as risk-assets sell-off triggering a short but sharp recession for 2023.
• The long-term outlook for the US$ dollar index remains very bearish – the year-1985 decline from record highs of 164.72 began a cycle degree A-B-C zig zag correction – wave A ended at 85.33 in 1987 and wave B only recently, into the Sep.’22 high of 114.78 – wave C has since begun a primary degree five wave impulse decline where ultimate downside targets remain towards 51.18+/-. That’s a depreciation of -55% per cent before the end of the decade.

Outlook Preview – Interest Rates

• The 60-year cycle in Corporate AAA Bond Yields formed a major low in year-2011 which ordinarily translates into a new sustained half-cycle uptrend of 30+/- years – but the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic forced more monetary accommodation from central banks, prolonging the previous 30-year cycle downtrend even longer – but the March ’20 lows are finally secure, confirming a new 30+ year uptrend for interest rates has begun.
• Central Banks & Inflation – In last year’s mid-year report, we forecast an interim high for inflation and a pullback lasting several months, maybe longer. That scenario has unfolded to plan – U.S. headline CPI has pulled lower from last June’s high of 9.1% to 6.4% in Jan.’23 fueling market expectations of higher risk-assets, i.e. stocks and commodities on a growing belief that inflation has peaked, Central Banks will deliver a soft (economic) landing, consumers adapting to higher costs and a China reopening. But Elliott Wave analysis suggests this is too optimistic – inflationary pressures are expected to tick higher during the next 2-3 months causing a re-think from the consensus Fed-Pivot/soft-landing forecasts – rather, Central Banks are forced to turn more hawkish, prolonging the current interest rate hiking cycle, i.e. higher-rates-for-longer. This triggers a risk-asset collapse which later turns yields lower but not before higher-highs during the next 2-3 months.

Currencies – US$ Dollar Index – Long-Term Cycle

The origin of the US$ dollar goes back to the 1660’s when the Spanish Real-de-a-Ocho, also known as the piece of eight, is a silver coin worth eight Spanish Reales. It was minted in the Spanish Empire following a monetary reform in 1497 with content 25.563 g = 0.822 oz t fine silver (Quarterly Forecast chart in our latest report!).

The amazing thing about the price development of the Spanish dollar into the American dollar is the way in which it unfolds over many centuries into a perfectly formed Elliott Wave impulse pattern consisting of five waves from the all-time-low of the American Civil War low of 1864 into the eventual peak of 1985. That five wave expanding impulse ending on a quarterly closing price of 149.46 (intraday at 164.72) explains why the dollar has been declining ever since reaching this peak – because the completion of a five wave uptrend must next be compensated by a three wave correction, in this case, labelled as a cycle degree A-B-C zig zag which is still unfolding to this day.

Cycle wave B ended last September ’22 at 114.78 having completed a primary degree running flat pattern from the Oct/’87 low of 85.33. Extending wave A (including the lower-low to 70.70 of wave B) by a fib. 38.2% ratio projects wave C down to 51.18+/- within the next several years. Such a decline would emulate wave A’s decline which took 2½ years to complete – that’s a dollar depreciation of -55% per cent with a date for completion in March ’25.

Fig #216 – US$ Dollar Index – Composite Cycle – Monthly by WaveTrack International

We think it will take a little longer basis the 195-month, 16.25-year cycle which depicts the next major low around Oct.’27 – see fig #216.

Preview Currencies – USD vs. CAD

US$/CAD Canadian dollar ended cycle wave B at 1.4040 (146.69) into the pandemic high and is now trending lower as cycle wave C during the next several years. Shorter-term, the outlook is unclear with primary wave 2’s rally from the June ’21 low of 1.2007 ending into the Oct.’22 high of 1.3978 alongside a US$ dollar index peak – but so far, no five wave impulse decline to confirm the new downtrend. See fig 253.

Fig #253 – USD vs. CAD – Daily – Forecast by WaveTrack International

Year of Opportunity and Vigilance – Be Prepared

Our EW-team worked hard to put this information together in a way that is comprehensive to ensure that you are prepared for the major FX moves to come in 2023 and beyond. Check out the table of contents below and if you are trading Currencies – don’t miss it!

We invite you to take this next step in our financial journey with us – video subscription details are below – just follow the links and we’ll see you soon!

Most sincerely,

Peter Goodburn
Founder and Chief Elliott Wave Analyst
WaveTrack International

What you get

Contents: 150 charts | VIDEO DURATION: nearly 2 hours 44 mins.
The contents of this CURRENCIES & INTEREST RATES VIDEO include Elliott Wave analysis for:

Forex (151 charts):
• US CPI
• US PCE
• US$ Index + Cycles
• Euro/US$ + Cycles
• Stlg/US$
• US$/Yen
• US$/CHF
• US$/NOK
• US$/SEK
• AUD/US$
• US$/CAD
• NZD/US$
• Euro/Stlg
• Euro/Yen
• Euro/CNY Renminbi
• Stlg/YEN
• Stlg/AUD
• Stlg/ZAR
• AUD/YEN
• AUD/CNY Renminbi
• AUD/NZD
• Asian ADXY
• US$/Renminbi
• US$/KRW
• US$/SGD
• US$/INR
• US$/TWD
• USD/THB
• US$/MYR
• US$/IDR
• US$/PHP
• USD/BRL
• USD/RUB
• US$/ZAR
• US$/MXN
• US$/TRY
• US$/PLZ
• Bitcoin
• Ethereum

Interest Rates (53 charts):
• US10yr Real Yield
• US30yr Yield + Cycles
• US10yr Yield + Cycles
• US5yr Yield
• US2yr Yield
• US2yr-10yr Yield Spread
• US10yr-30yr Yield Spread
• 3mth EuroDollar-US10yr Yield Spread
• Comparison US10-DE10yr vs S&P 500
• US10yr TIPS Break Even Inflation Rate
• US10-DE10yr Yield Spread
• DE10yr Yield
• ITY10yr Yield
• Italy10-DE10yr Yield Spread
• Australia 10yr Yield
• Japan 10yr Yield

How to buy the Forex + Bonds Video Outlook 2023

Simply contact us @ services@wavetrack.com to buy the CURRENCIES + INTEREST RATES Video Outlook 2023 for USD 49.00 (+ VAT where applicable) or alternatively our Triple Video Offer for USD 99.00 (+ VAT where applicable) – Review the content of WaveTrack Stock Indices Video PART I here and the Commodities Video PART II here.

*(additional VAT may be added depending on your country – currently US, Canada, Asia have no added VAT but most European countries do)

We’re sure you’ll reap the benefits – don’t forget to contact us with any Elliott Wave questions – Peter is always keen to hear you views, queries and comments.

Visit us @ www.wavetrack.com

New Commodities Video Outlook 2023

by WaveTrack International| January 23, 2023 | No Comments

Commodities Video Outlook 2023 – ‘Let’s review the main drivers for COMMODITY prices – Inflation, Interest Rates, the likelihood of an Economic Recession and trends in the US$ Dollar’

We’re pleased to announce the publication of WaveTrack’s annual Triple Video Outlook 2023 of medium-term ELLIOTT WAVE price-forecasts. Today’s release is PART II, COMMODITIES – Part I was released last month and Part III will be published in late-February / beginning of March 2023…

• PART I – STOCK INDICES – out now!
• PART II – COMMODITIES – out now!
• PART III – CURRENCIES & INTEREST RATES – coming soon!

Commodities Forecast Highlights 2023!

Commodities Underperformers vs. Outerperformer’s for 2023

Commodities tied to the fluctuations in the global economic cycle are preparing for another downturn during the first-half of 2023. In many cases, corrective declines that began mid/late-2021 or early-2022. This depended greatly on the specific commodity to remain incomplete with further declines forecast this year, in 2023. Recession fears have since been diluted in January’s optimism, but downside risks remains.

Base Metals like Copper were initially down in 2022 by -35% but rallied higher from July’s low by +33% per cent. Eroding those earlier losses. Prices are set to decline again though, from current levels.

Energy markets which were big outperformers in 2022 are also expected lower this year. Crude/Brent oil are expected to see some of the biggest declines together with benchmark XLE and XOP ETF’s. These declines can pull prices down by -40% per cent through the first-half of the year.

In contrast, Precious Metals bottomed in September ’22 having undergone a successful counter-trend completion over the last two years. Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium are all set to outperform and trend higher whilst industrial commodities decline. Whilst 2-year uptrends are underway, pockets of downward corrections are expected to mirror the US$ dollar’s movements. Find out more amazing details in our Elliott Wave Commodities Video 2023!

Main Drivers for Commodity Prices

Commodities main drivers for this year remain with existing inflationary trends, interest rates, the risk of an economic recession and direction in the US$ dollar.

Double-digit inflation in some developing economic regions of the world has resulted in cap-ex reductions in key commodity areas. Especially, in developing nations, high single-digit inflation has increased fears of a recession this year, in 2023 – see fig #96. Fund managers were unanimous late last year (2022) that persistent inflationary pressures would trigger an economic downturn this year although declines in U.S. CPI from the June ’22 peak of 9.1% to 6.5% has given way to January’s optimism for a mild recession.

Fig #96 – Double-Digit Inflation – Source: Elements ELEMENTS.VisualCapitalist.com

‘Goldilocks’ moment?

Goldman Sachs analysts are epitomising that change into more optimistic sentiment. They say that commodities have the strongest outlook of any asset class in 2023, with a perfect macroeconomic environment and critically low inventories for almost every key raw material. They said that demand in China is starting to rebound and there’s insufficient investment in supply, meaning the year as a whole will be a ‘Goldilocks’ moment for rising prices.

The Federal Reserve dot-plot

The Federal Reserve dot-plot suggests the fed-funds rate will end up around 5.0% per cent. February’s next meeting suggests a slowing down in the pace of increases with the market expecting only 0.25% rate hike. Even so, rising rates remain in the background. The long-end of the interest rate curve, ten-year treasuries and bunds traded in Europe completed counter-trend 4th wave corrections into December’s lows. They’re already showing signs of heading higher. This is really important because if interest rates are set to resume higher, then it will be the major pain trade of the year because just about every bond trader is currently positioned for lower rates, not higher.

The US$ Dollar

One of the main contributing factors that’s expected to drive commodity prices higher over the next several years into an ‘inflation-pop’ peak is the weakening of the US$ dollar. There’s a distinct 15.6-year cycle recurrence for the US$ dollar index which has signalled the various peaks and troughs over the past several decades – see fig #105.

Fig # 105 – US Dollar Index – Composite Cycle by WaveTrack International

Commodities Video Outlook 2023

This video is Part II and we’ll be taking a look at over 100 individual commodity contracts and cycles within three main sub-sectors, Base Metals, Precious Metals, Precious and Base Metal Miners and Energy.

The central themes we’ll be discussing in this video include amongst those mentioned before an update of inflation-sensitive commodities like Food and Energy including ETF’s like the DB Agriculture Fund, XLE and XOP. Furthermore, we’re taking a look at some strategic metals like Iron Ore, Uranium and Rare Earth ETF’s and a few related equities. And much more…

This is WaveTrack’s state of the art video –only available twice a year– if you are trading commodities this is a must have.

Sincerely,

Peter Goodburn & EW-team

Commodities Video Outlook 2023 Part II/III

Contents: 113 charts
Time: 2 hours 24 mins.

• US CPI
• Food and Agriculture Index
• DB PowerShares Agriculture Fund
• US Dollar index + Cycles
• CRB-Cash index + Cycles
• Copper + Cycles
• Aluminium
• Lead
• Zinc
• Nickel
• Tin
• Iron Ore
• Uranium
• Rare Earths
• BHP-Billiton
• Freeport McMoran
• Antofagasta
• Anglo American
• Glencore
• Rio Tinto
• Vale
• Gold
• Gold-Silver Ratio
• Silver
• Platinum/Silver Ratio
• Platinum
• Palladium/Gold Ratio
• Palladium/Platinum Ratio
• Palladium
• GDX Gold Miners Index
• Newmont Mining
• Amer Barrick Gold
• Agnico Eagle Mines
• AngloGold Ashanti
• XAU Gold/Silver Index
• Fresnillo Silver
• Crude Oil + Cycles
• Brent Oil
• Gasoline RBOB
• Natural Gas
• TTF Natural Gas
• XLE Energy SPDR
• XOP Oil and Gas Index

How can you purchase the video?

1. Contact us @ services@wavetrack.com and ask for a PayPal payment link(please state if you like to purchase the Commodities Single video for USD 49.00 + VAT* or the Triple Video for USD 99.00 +VAT*?).
2. Additionally, to PayPal we now offer as well payment via credit card payment link

Each video runs for at least up to 2 hours and it’s packed with SPECIFIC Elliott Wave price-forecasts (the Stock Indices Video is 2 hour 11 mins long!).

*(additional VAT may be added depending on your country – currently US, Canada, Asia have no added VAT but most European countries do)

We’re sure you’ll reap the benefits – don’t forget to contact us with any Elliott Wave questions – Peter is always keen to hear you views, queries and comments.

Visit us @ www.wavetrack.com

We’re sure you’ll reap the benefits. Don’t forget to contact us with any Elliott Wave questions. Our EW-team is always keen to hear your views, queries, and comments.

Visit us @ www.wavetrack.com

Category: Commodities, CRB, Elliott Wave, Fibonacci Trading, Palladium, Platinum, Precious Metals, Silver, trading

Stock Indices Video Outlook 2023

by WaveTrack International| December 28, 2022 | No Comments

Stock Indices Video Outlook 2023

2022’s CORRECTION RESUMES IN 2023!!

Highlights

2022’s Correction far from Over

Another -28% to -30% Decline Ahead Following Dow Jones’ Rally of +22% in October-December Upswing

No Definable Underperformance in 2023

S&P 500 same as Nasdaq 100

Small-Cap Biotechnology to Outperform as a Sector

Recession Sharp and Deep – Major Lows by Q2 2023

European Indices -30% in 2023

No Hiding Place for Banking Sector

Asian Indices Down but Mainland China to Outperform

Emerging Markets Down

Further Out, Bull Market Returns

Record Highs for 2024

2022’s CORRECTION RESUMES IN 2023!!

This exact time last year (December 2021), Elliott Wave analysis identified the end of 1st waves within post-pandemic five wave uptrends, the final bull market of the greater secular-bull uptrend that originated back to the financial-crisis lows. A deep 2nd wave correction was forecast for 2022, predicting decline of between minus -30% to -40% per cent.

At the same time, 70% per cent of mainstream investment brokers and analysts were telling their clients the benchmark indices would rise in 2022 between 5% to 15% per cent. So how did we do? It turns out that the benchmark S&P 500 declined from its Jan.’22 high into October’s low by minus -28% per cent and the Nasdaq 100 from its Nov.’21 high by minus -38% per cent! Lucky guess? – absolutely not, but down to the application of what R.N. Elliott described by applying the principle of ‘Nature’s Law’ – action/reaction as a Universal Principle. So what can we expect in the coming year, for 2023?

Double-Digit Inflation

Rising inflationary pressures continued to dominated financial markets during 2022 with U.S. headline acceleration peaking into a mid-year high of 9.1% whilst elsewhere, in Europe, peaking at 10.6% in October.

Geopolitical tensions are triggering high energy costs. While supply-side disruptions are also distorting consumer prices. The end result is that almost half of countries worldwide are seeing double-digit inflation rates or higher – see fig #1 (courtesy of elements.visualcapitalist.com).

Fig #1 – Double-Digit Inflation – Source: by courtesy of elements.visualcapitalist.com

With new macroeconomic forces shaping the global economy, the infographic shows countries with the highest inflation rates (using data from Trading Economics). As the table below shows, countless countries are navigating record-high levels of inflation. Some are even facing triple-digit inflation rates. Globally, Zimbabwe, Lebanon, and Venezuela have the highest rates in the world.

As price pressures mount, 33 central banks tracked by the Bank of International Settlements (out of a total of 38) have raised interest rates this year. These coordinated rate hikes are the largest in two decades, representing an end to an era of rock-bottom interest rates. Where do we go from here? Find out more in our latest Elliott Wave Stock Indices Video Outlook 2023!

New Stock Indices Video Outlook 2023 – PART I/III

This STOCK INDICES Video Outlook 2023 is like nothing you’ve seen anywhere else in the world. It’s unique to WaveTrack International, how we foresee trends developing through the lens of Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) and how its forecasts correlate with Cycles, Sentiment extremes and Economic data trends.

We invite you to take this next step in our financial journey with us – video subscription details are below – just follow the links and we’ll see you soon!

Most sincerely,

Peter Goodburn
Founder and Chief Elliott Wave Analyst
WaveTrack International

Contents Stock Indices Video Outlook 2023

Charts: 95 | Video: 2 hours 11 mins.

Interest Rates + Inflationary Pressures Information

S&P 500 + cycle

Dow Jones 30 + cycle

Russell 2000

Nasdaq 100

Value vs Growth

DJ Transportation Average

DJ Utility Index

KBW Banking Index

XLF Financial

XLK Technology

FANG+

NASDAQ Biotechnology

Biotechn Small Cap XBI

XLV Health Care

SOX Semiconductor

XLY Consumer Discretionary

XLP Consumer Staples

XOP Oil and Gas

Eurostoxx 50

Xetra Dax 30

FTSE-100

FTSE-30

EuroStock Banks

Deutsche Bank

UniCredit

Commerzbank

MSCI Emerging Market

MSCI China

China Enterprises

MSCI Hong Kong

Hang Seng

Shanghai Composite

Bovespa

Sensex

Nifty 50

Tasi

Singapore Straits

Taiwan SE Weighted

All Ordinaries Australia

ASX 200

Nikkei 225

CONTACT US NOW VIA EMAIL – SELECT YOUR PACKAGE

Single Video – *$49.00 – PART I Stock Index Video Outlook 2023 (Decmeber ’22) or send us an email to services@wavetrack.com
Triple Package offer – *$99.00 (saving 33%)! – PART I – PART II – PART III (January – February ’23)

Each video runs for at least 1 hour 50 minutes and it’s packed with SPECIFIC Elliott Wave price-forecasts. The Stock Index Video is already 2 hours 11 mins. long!.

*(additional VAT may be added depending on your country – currently US, Canada, Asia have no added VAT but most European countries do)

BONUS! The Stock Index Video Outlook 2023 contains 95 charts already. illustrated in the VIDEOS will be created into a .pdf document/report and sent to you so that you can always keep these to refer to!

PARTS II & III will be available in a few weeks’ time – we’re working on it!

HOW CAN YOU RECEIVE THE VIDEO FORECAST?

To receive your VIDEO UPDATE please click here to contact us.
– Please state if you wish to purchase the SINGLE VIDEO – Stock Index Video Outlook 2023 for USD *49.00 and send us an email to services@wavetrack.com?
– Or opt for the TRIPLE PACKAGE for USD *99.00 in total?
– Next we will send you a PayPal payment request and provide you with the video link & PDF report once payment is confirmed. Please know the reply can take up to 6 hours. But rest assured we will give our best to provide you with the information as soon as possible!

*(additional VAT may be added depending on your country of residence. Currently, the US, Canada, Asia have no added VAT but most European countries do)

We’re sure you’ll reap the benefits – don’t forget to contact us with any Elliott Wave questions – Peter is always keen to hear your views, queries, and comments.

Visit us @ www.wavetrack.com

Category: ASX 200, Australia ASX 200, Biotechnology, Bovespa, Cycles, Dow Jones 30, Eurostoxx 50, EuroStoxx50, EuroStoxxBanks, FANG+, Fibonacci Trading, Global Economy, Hang Seng, India-CNX Nifty 50, MSCI China, MSCI Emerging Markets, Nasdaq 100, Nasdaq Biotechnology Index, Nasdaq100, Nikkei 225, Russell 2000, Russia RTS, S&P 500, Sector, Sentiment Survey, SP500, Stock Index, Stock Indices, Stock Indices Video Outlook 2023, Track Record, trading, UniCredit, Xetra Dax, XOP, ‘INFLATION-POP’

Elliott Wave Commodities Update

by WaveTrack International| November 29, 2022 | No Comments

Main Drivers for Commodities are Inflation, Interest Rates and US$ Dollar – Inflation Peak, Rising Interest Rates, Peak US$ Dollar Major Headwinds – Base Metals Completing July’s Counter-Trend Rallies, Heading Lower Now – Precious Metals Bottoming with Short-Term Downside Risk – Energy forming Interim Lows, Heading Higher into Year-End

Commodities Prices – 3 Main Drivers

The main drivers for commodities prices are inflation, interest rates and the US$ dollar.

Central Banks have maintained their aggressive pace of interest rate hikes with one or two exceptions. The Reserve Bank of Australia pulled back on its 50bps basis point incremental increased from June to September with only 25bps basis points in the last two meetings. The Reserve Bank of Canada hiked rates by 100bps basis points last July but has since pulled back to 50bps increases in October. The U.S. Federal Reserve have maintained their 75bps basis point increases since June but is hinting it may slow down to 50bps in the next December meeting. Inflation pressures have eased off a little in the U.S.. This is giving rise to peak inflation expectations. However, the big question related to commodity prices is whether this year’s hikes have already dented the world’s economic growth prospects? See fig #1.

Fig #1 – Central Banks – The Race to Raise Rates – Source: Refinitiv Datastream

CPI/Eurozone Inflation

In Bank of America’s latest Global Fund Manager Survey, a massive 92% per cent of fund managers predict stagflation in 2023 – see fig #2 . That means persistent inflationary pressures but at the same time economic stagnation. Central Banks are set to keep hiking during the first quarter of next year in an attempt to bring inflation down. Even if this means sacrificing the global economies. And this combined with more COVID lockdowns in China is creating strong headwinds for commodities into year-end though Q1 2023.

Fig #2 – FMS – Stagflation Call for 2023 – Source: BofA Fund Manager Survey

Commodities and Energy

We can see the effect in Base Metals like Copper – see fig #3. Prices have declined a lot over the past year. Precisely, down -35% per cent into July’s low although a recovery since means it’s down now by -20% per cent. However, that’s still massive, and it hasn’t finished yet. July’s recovery has unfolded into an Elliott Wave corrective zig zag pattern ending into the mid-November high. It’s now preparing for another big downswing which is forecast ending sometime into the end of Q1 2023, or beginning of Q2. That’s confirming what most fund managers expect – stagflation.

Fig #3 – Copper – Daily – Source: WaveTrack International – www.wavetrack.com

Commodities and Energy

The energy markets are also showing big declines for Crude and Brent oil next year. Although there’s the prospect of good gains before the next declines begin. We’ll be taking a look at these contracts later.

If there’s good news on the horizon, it has to be in Precious Metals. Last month’s report identified a major low in Gold, Silver, Platinum and the Gold Miners. This is still the case. However, there are some downside risks before year-end. This is dependent on whether the US$ dollar undergoes one last push to a modest higher-high, or if September’s high has already peaked – see fig’s #4-5.

Fig #4 – US Dollar Index – Daily – Source: WaveTrack International – www.wavetrack.com

Fig #5 – US Dollar Index – Daily – Count #2 – Source: WaveTrack International – www.wavetrack.com

Either way, the Gold Minders have been confirmed putting in a major low and are already trending into a new multi-year uptrend – See GDX Gold Miners index fig #6.

Fig #6 – GDX Gold Miners Index – Weekly – Source: WaveTrack International – www.wavetrack.com

WaveTrack’s EW-Commodities Report has been released. Get more insights about trading opportunities in our latest EW-Commodities Outlook report and video update!

Category: Base Metals, Commodities, Copper, CRB, Crude oil, Elliott Wave, Gold, Mines, Mining, Palladium, Platinum, Precious Metals, Silver, trading, XAU Gold/Silver Index, XOP, Zinc

FANG+ Rallying Higher from October Low

by WaveTrack International| November 16, 2022 | No Comments

FANG+ Rallying Higher from October Low as Expanding Flat Pattern – Completion Due Year-End but then Declining together with Global Indices as Final Sequence of 2022-2023 Counter-Trend Decline – Downside Targets Considerably Lower

FANG+ Rallying Higher

This month’s report updates several technology stocks which themselves are components of the FANG+ index. We’ve selected 6 FROM 10 components that best illustrate the varying divergences of trend. The analysis begins with a take on the pattern developing in the benchmark FANG+ index. And, then moving on to the equities – Amazon Inc., Apple Inc., Facebook/Meta Inc., Microsoft Corp., Netflix Inc. and finally NVIDIA Corp. See fig #1.

Fig #1 – NYSE FANG+ Index

FANG+ Analysis from an Elliott Wave Persepective

From an Elliott Wave pattern perspective, we can order these equities into two groups. Those stocks that have already formed a major low and the second group which are set to continue this year’s declines into Q1 2023.

The Fang+ index has lost Twitter since Elon Musk’s takeover with Microsoft taking its place. The weighting is the same 10% for each equity, 10 in all equating to 100% per cent.

The Fang+ index is unfolding similarly to the Nasdaq 100 with some slight variation. Both are declining into a multi-year corrections that began from the Nov.’21 highs. These are developing into double zig zags, i.e. a-b-c-x-a-b-c – see fig #2. We already had a pretty good idea in December ’21. Note, this is almost a year ago, that 2022 would see a severe downward correction in the technology sector because the post-pandemic advance into the Nov.’21 peaks unfolded into an a-b-c zig zags. Implying this was ending the 1st wave of an ending-type diagonal with the necessity of a deep 2nd wave correction to augment the ongoing pattern development of the diagonal. These zig zags were especially evident in the Nasdaq 100 and the XLK Technology indices.

Fig #2 – NYSE FANG+ Index – Daily – Forecast by WaveTrack International

And so, the FANG+’s corrective decline from the Nov.’21 high of 8077.01 completed the 1st wave of the diagonal with a double zig zag downswing declining since as a deep 2nd wave. That double zig zag remains incomplete. As a result, it forewarns of another big sell-off next year. However, during Q1 2023 but not before finishing the current counter-trend rally that began in October and due to finish in December, year-end.

FANG+ What about Apple, Microsoft and NVIDIA?

Equities that fall into this grouping where upside rallies continue until year-end but then decline rapidly during Q1 ’23 are Apple Inc., Microsoft and NVIDIA. In contrast, the others are forming major lows right now. They are set to outperform over the next several months because they’re unlikely to break below recent lows. This applies to Amazon Inc., Facebook/Meta and Netflix.

The latest Bank of America Fund Manager Survey shows the technology sector as the most underweight since 2006. We’d expect that extreme to neutralise a little with a push higher for technology into year-end. See fig #3.

Fig #2 – Bank of America Fund Manager SurveyInternational

Watch the latest amazing EW-Navigator video and get more insights about Technology Stocks trading opportunities US Stock Indices update!

Category: Amazon, FANG+, Stock Indices, trading
Tags: Amazon > Apple Inc. > Meta Inc. > Microsoft Corp. > Netflix Inc > NVIDIA Corp

EW-Commodities Update

by WaveTrack International| November 3, 2022 | No Comments

Commodities – Base Metals Mixed – Copper & Lead Higher, Aluminium & Zinc Lower – Precious Metals Bottoming, Beginning New Multi-Year Uptrend – Natural Gas Rebound After Massive Declines – Crude/Brent Oil Continue Counter-Trend Rallies from September’s Lows

Natural Gas Prices – Elliott Wave Forecasts predicted the decline!

Commodities Highlight! European TTF Gas prices have declined by -72% per cent from the late-August high whilst U.S. Natural Gas prices have declined during the same time by -52% per cent. And here we are, seeing core inflationary pressures still rising!

Just today, Eurozone CPI (HICP) inflation for October has come through at an annualised headline rate of 10.7% per cent. The highest ever recorded across the Bloc. As a result, core CPI is rising too, but much lower at 5.0% per cent.

Just last week, U.S. headline CPI was annualised at 8.2%, down from June’s high of 9.1% per cent but with core rising much faster, at new post-pandemic highs of 6.6% per cent.

Inflationary Pressures and Natural Gas Conundrum

Both Europe and the U.S. central banks have blamed Food & Energy as the two key components within CPI that are responsible for elevated inflationary pressures. But if that’s correct, how is it possible for continued inflation rises whilst TTF and Natural Gas prices are plummeting? Is this just a lag? Or some other explanation?

What about Japanese Inflation?

Japan is the world’s 3rd biggest economy. They consume food and energy just like you and me. And yet inflation is only 3% per cent – why? We’re told it’s because there’s government price controls in place. E.g. an aging population with some of the world’s highest savings rates and negative interest rates implemented by the Bank of Japan. Certainly, all contributing factors. But are these able to absorb the huge energy price rises of the last 18-months? We think not. One thing’s for sure, now that TTF/Natural Gas prices have collapsed lower, we should expect inflation to come down now. If not, then data manipulation on a grand scale is where our thoughts lead to next.

How are Central Banks responding to rising Inflationary Pressures?

Fig #1 – Central Banks – Hiking Peak – Source: Bloomberg and IMF staff calculations

Right now, there’s no let up in Central Banks (CB’s) responding to inflationary pressures. Especially, with aggressive hiking cycles expected to continue through to year-end. The number of CB’s hiking have reached a new peak – see fig #1.

This is having a negative impact on sentiment in both financial markets and small businesses in western economies. Even U.S. Federal Reserve officials are recognising the current pace of interest rate increases are likely to impact growth prospects, even causing a recession – see fig #2.

Fig #2 – FED Officials See Recession Risk Rising – Source: FED Board of Governors and Bloomberg

Commodities and the Bank of America Fund Manager Survey

In the latest Bank of America Fund Manager Survey, close to a record percentage of fund managers expect a weaker economy in the next 12-month period – see fig #3. That’s an incredible number because it surpasses bearish sentiment lows of the pandemic, the financial crisis and the post-dot-com crash lows of 2002. In all cases though, a silver lining in the cloud can be found. Notice how on each occasion of these previous lows, the benchmark S&P 500 begins a new bull market uptrend between 0-12 months afterwards.

Fig #3 – Record Low Expectations for Weaker Economy – Source: BofA Fund Manager Survey, Bloomberg

That’s very interesting when we also take a look at how Commodity prices fit into the picture. The current extremes of economic pessimism is interpreted as a contrarian bullish signal within the next 0-12 month period. This certainly fits into the overall picture we see in the Elliott Wave structure of both Base Metals and Energy prices.

Commodities and the CRB Index

The CRB-Reuters/Jefferies index illustrates the point – where the post-pandemic advance has unfolded into a five wave impulse pattern from 101.48 finishing last June at 329.59 – see fig #4.

Fig #4 – CRB Index – Daily – Source: WaveTrack International – www.wavetrack.com

It has since begun a counter-trend downswing, shown unfolding into a corrective double zig zag pattern. This is set for a rebound higher for a month or so, but then continuing its decline until downside targets are reached into the end of Q1 2023, around levels of 202.45+/-. That’s another -25% per cent lower than today’s price levels – it’s already dropped -20% per cent so far this year.

Declines of another -25% per cent are mostly correlated to the Energy markets. Base Metals have already completed most of their corrective declines although there’s still more downside risk too. The exciting area for commodities is precious metals. These are forming major lows with small downside risk this month, New multi-year uptrends are set to begin.

Watch the latest amazing EW-Commodities video and get more insights about s trading opportunities in our latest EW-Commodities Outlook report and video update!

Category: Base Metals, Commodities, Copper, CRB, Crude oil, Elliott Wave Charts, GDX, Gold, Gold Mining, Mines, Mining, Platinum, Precious Metals, Silver, trading, XOP, Zinc

‘SHOCK-POP-DROP’ & ‘INFLATION-POP’ Explained

by WaveTrack International| October 7, 2022 | No Comments

‘SHOCK-POP-DROP’ & ‘INFLATION-POP’Explained!

Almost all commodities ended super-cycle uptrends around the year’s 2006-2008. We define the super-cycle uptrend not from the 1999 lows as is generally considered in the financial industry but from the ‘Great Depression’ lows of 1932. This is because most commodities reached all-time lows at that time. Even lower than levels traded several hundred years earlier and this provides a strong basis for historical Elliott Wave analysis. The subsequent uptrend from the 1932 low unfolded into a five wave impulse pattern into the 2006-08 highs, for benchmarks like the CRB-Cash (CCI) index, Copper and Crude oil – see fig #1.

Fig #1 – CRB Cash Index – Quarterly by WaveTrack International

All price action following those peaks in Commodities around 2006-08 is part of a rebalancing correction to the completion of the Super-Cycle uptrend. This correction is forecast unfolding over the next two decades. Perhaps even a little longer with declining prices over that term. In Elliott Wave terms, the correction can only unfold into three types of pattern or categories, Zig Zag, Flat or Triangle. So far, there’s evidence that confirms a Flat or specifically, an Expanding Flat pattern is taking shape. It consists of three main price-swings, labelled A-B-C subdividing 3-3-5. This is assigned the term ‘Shock-Pop-Drop’ – see fig 2.

Fig #2 – ‘SHOCK-POP-DROP’ Flat Expanind Elliott Wave Pattern by WaveTrack International

‘SHOCK-POP-DROP’

The first ‘SHOCK’ phase develops during the financial-crisis sell-off which comes as a complete surprise to financial markets. The second ‘POP’ phase incites recovery, triggers Central Banks (CB’s) to begin an unprecedented act of Quantitative Easing (QE) forcing asset prices higher but later, inducing Rising Inflationary Pressures until the bubble finally bursts. We’ve specifically termed this the ‘INFLATION-POP’ (we’re experiencing this right now!). That leads to the final third ‘DROP’ phase when financial markets collapse under the weight of debt and excessiveness. As a result, we will see overreaching speculation resulting in massive asset price declines, both stocks and commodities comparable in percentage terms to collapses in stock markets in 1837-1842 (-70%) and 1929-1932 (-90%) – see fig #3.

Fig #3 – Dow Jones Yearly Averages by WaveTrack International

The financial-crisis that developed in 2007-09 is simply the 1st phase or wave A of the ‘Shock-Pop-Drop’.
The post financial-crisis recovery is the 2nd phase or wave B of the super-cycle correction which is capable of pushing many commodities into new record highs. This phenomenon is not recognised in conventional fundamental/economic or even technical analysis because analysts see this as part of the previous super-cycle uptrend. But the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) specifically identifies such price development as the 2nd phase of the multi-decennial correction of the expanding flat pattern.

‘INFLATION-POP’

This 2nd phase of the expanding flat can be broken-down into a three price-swing event, up-down-up until prices reach new record highs. We know markets adhere to ‘fractal’ qualities of subdivision and this is a good example. These three price-swings are known as an A-B-C zig zag, subdividing 5-3-5 and given the term ‘INFLATION-POP’. Because it will undoubtedly trigger a resurgence of inflationary pressures by the time prices reach new record highs – see fig #4.

Fig #4 – ‘SHOCK-POP-DROP’ Zig Zag Single Elliott Wave Pattern by WaveTrack International

There are three price-swings attributed to the A-B-C zig zag pattern. Wave A represents the first phase of the inflation pop and wave C as the second phase. The first phase ended wave A into the 2010-11 highs. The second phase as wave C began from the Feb.’16 lows for Base Metals but extended into the Coronavirus Pandemic lows of March ’20 for energy markets like Crude/Brent oil and for Platinum.

‘RE-SYNCHRONISATION’

The second phase of the inflation-pop began in January/February 2016. At the time corrective declines in developed (stock) markets formed synchronous lows with Emerging Market and Commodity corrections that began from the year-2011 peaks. We termed this as the grand ‘RE-SYNCHRONISATION’ lows. This is why significant price rises have followed. Now, continuing the secular-bull uptrend for stock markets whilst beginning the next but final third phase of inflationary price rises for EM’s and Commodities – see fig #5.

Fig #5 – Copper – Weekly – Track Record by WaveTrack International

Labelled as primary wave C (could be cycle wave C for some other commodities), the second phase of price rises are typically unfolding into five price-swings or waves, 1-2-3-4-5. Over a period of several years, into the culmination of the next cyclical peak due around the years-2023-24. In some cases, this could extend to 2025-27. So far, wave 1 ended its advance in Base Metals having taken two-years to develop into January/February 2018’s highs. This has since given way to a period or regression or correction in wave 2. In Elliott Wave terms this is a necessary function before prices can resume higher in wave 3 and so on. Wave 2 completed into the March/April COVID-19 lows for various Base Metals.

The Precious Metals Difference

The progress of the inflation-pop for precious metals is somewhat different. They too will succumb to the gradual build-up of inflationary pressures which maintains it within the overall schematic. However, its Elliott Wave pattern progress is different. Gold’s long-term five wave impulse uptrend that dates back to the Great Depression lows remains in upside progress despite trading in Aug.’20 to record highs. Industrial precious metals like Silver and Platinum have a different rhythm but are trending higher during the final phase of the inflation-pop cycle, due to peak latest in 2024-2027 – see fig #6.

Fig #6 – Gold – Weekly – Track Record by WaveTrack International

The biggest gains during this next second phase of the Inflation-Pop is expected to be in Equity Miners, both Base & Precious Metal Miners with some multiples of 4:1, perhaps more, measuring from those lows of 2016 – see fig #7.

Fig #7 – GDX – Monthly by WaveTrack International

Get more insights about Commodities trading opportunities in our latest EW-Commodities Outlook report and video update!

Category: Commodities, economy, Elliott Wave, ‘INFLATION-POP’, ‘SHOCK-POP-DROP’

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