WaveTrack International

Elliott Wave Financial Price Forecasting

Commodities 2020 Mid-Year Video Series

by WaveTrack International| July 15, 2020 | No Comments

Commodities Video by WaveTrack International - ‘Inflation-Pop’ Lift-Off – Commodities Hit Major Lows – Next 2-3 Year Uptrends Underway

Commodities Hit Major Lows –‘Inflation-Pop’ Lift-Off – Next 2-3 Year Uptrends Underway

We’re pleased to announce today’s release is PART II, COMMODITIES – Part I was released last month and Part III will be published in late-July

PART I – STOCK INDICES – out now!
• PART II – COMMODITIES – out now!

• PART III – CURRENCIES & INTEREST RATES – coming soon!

Elliott Wave Forecasts – Mid-Year 2020 – Summary

  • The Commodity Super-Cycle began from the Great Depression lows of year-1932. Typically unfolding over the next 76-year period into an Elliott Wave impulse pattern ending in year-2008. Since then, a two-decade long corrective downswing has begun a new deflationary era but with pockets of rising inflationary pressures
  • One of those pockets of rising inflationary pressures resumed in early 2016, took a pause in 2018-2020 and is now set to surge higher through 2023/24. This is the final phase of the ‘Inflation-Pop’ cycle
  • Commodities have undergone extreme sell-offs during the COVID-19 panic that lasted through the first-quarter of 2020. Last January’s report cited a ‘Q1 Sell-Off’ prior to a major recovery – and that’s exactly what’s happened! All commodity sectors were hit hard, Base Metals, Precious Metals & Energy but especially Crude/Brent oil – since then, major recoveries have begun and these are seen lasting into the next cycle peaks due in 2023/24
  • BASE METALS – Most of the base metals ended their commodity super-cycle peaks in 2006/07. Since then, a dominant deflationary cycle began with the financial-crisis sell-off but the subsequent advances from the 2008/09 lows triggered a mid-term ‘inflation-pop’ cycle induced by central bank’s liquidity programmes. This continues to this day, despite secondary declines during this year’s COVID-19 collapse. Important lows formed last March with prices now ready to trend significantly higher over the next 2-3 year period, many to new record highs led by Copper but also for Aluminium, Lead and Zinc
  • PRECIOUS METALS – Precious metals are trading into two sub-categories, safe-havens and industrials. Gold holds its safe-haven status although central banks’ new liquidity programmes triggered from the COVID-19 pandemic is the main contributor to gold’s inherent strength. Silver, platinum and palladium are all trading as industrial metals, are cyclical and mostly in sync with the rhythm of the stock market. However, gold is continuing its five wave bull market uptrend from the end-Dec.’15 low of 1046.45 but approaching a terminal 3rd wave around 1840.00-65.00+/-. This would allow a 4th wave corrective downswing to begin soon, lasting for the remainder of this year, and into next. Silver collapsed in March to 11.64 with this low ending the second sequence of a multi-year A-B-C expanding flat pattern – wave C is now engaged to the upside but its 1st wave approaching targets at 19.20-60+/-. Platinum hit downside targets last March at 580.10 ending A-B-C zig zag declines from all-time-highs – a new multi-year upside recovery has begun. Palladium’s outlook is uncertain having reached long-term upside objectives last February at 2880.87
  • ENERGY – March’s collapse in Crude/Brent oil triggered alternate count #2 downside targets into lows of 6.50 and 15.98 respectively, both ending A-B-C-X-A-B-C double zig zag corrective patterns that began from the all-time-highs of July ’08. Subsequent advances are labelled as the next sequence of a long-term triangle pattern where next upside targets for Crude oil are towards 81.75+/-, maybe higher and for Brent oil, towards minimum 97.60+/- into the ‘inflation-pop’ peak due in 2023/24. Shorter-term, Crude oil is testing upside resistance at 41.00+/-, opening the way for a multi-month corrective downswing targeting 20.50+/-, max. 16.25+/- and Brent oil towards 45.80+/- with corrective downside targets towards min. 30.65+/-, max. 27.00+/-. The XOP Oil & Gas index (ETF) formed an important low last March at 29.48 and is now engaged in a multi-year rally towards 118.00+/-
  • EW-Forecast Review – H1 2020

    The Annual 2020 report published last January (2020) highlighted first-quarter Q1 ’20 downside risk across the commodities sector – ‘…This specifically applies to base metals like Copper, Aluminium and Lead’…’Commodities like Crude/Brent oil are still some way from ending corrective X wave declines that began from the Oct.’18 highs. So far, downside targets are still -32% per cent below current levels…’. It continued…’ The probability of a Q1 dip in prices is evident across other asset classes – the US10yr treasury yield downtrend that began from the Oct.’18 peak of 3.262% remains incomplete, requiring another but final decline to lower-lows, below last September’s low of 1.429%. Also, U.S. stock markets are set to end last October’s uptrend – those gains of +16% per cent must be corrected to the downside…Various Base Metal Mining stocks are set to trade lower over the next few months too. The US$ dollar could flip higher for a few months, indicating the same risk-off event…’.

    Commodities and Coronavirus Aftermath

    These forecasts were realised as the coronavirus pandemic spread from China, across continental Europe and later to the United States. There was no contemplation at the time that the COVID-19 pandemic would be the catalyst for the expected declines across commodity markets. However, Elliott Wave patterns were already warning of a significant sell-off.

    Fig #1 - Track Record - CRB Cash Index - 2nd January 2020 by WaveTrack International

    Fig #1 – Track Record – CRB Cash Index – 2nd January 2020 by WaveTrack International

    COMMODITIES VIDEO - Fig #2 - Result! - CRB Cash Index - 2nd January 2020 by WaveTrack International

    Fig #2 – Result! – CRB Cash Index – 2nd January 2020 by WaveTrack International

    Price declines were even more severe that these bearish forecasts. Copper declined by -30% per cent. Crude/Brent oil collapsed by an unprecedented -90% per cent whilst industrial precious metal fell by -40% per cent. Even gold wobbled! And traded down -15% per cent into March’s low. Stock markets declined by -35% per cent whilst the US10yr yield traded down to historical lows of 0.378% per cent.

    Fig #3 – Track Record – MSCI EM and Copper Correlation Study – 4th January 2020 by WaveTrack International

    Fig #3 – Track Record – MSCI EM and Copper Correlation Study – 4th January 2020 by WaveTrack International

    Fig #4 – Result! – MSCI EM and Copper Correlation Study by WaveTrack International

    Fig #4 – Result! – MSCI EM and Copper Correlation Study by WaveTrack International

    Commodities and V-Shaped Recovery

    Commodities have certainly undergone a V-shaped recovery since forming important lows last March. Despite warnings of a second-wave of coronavirus infections spreading across the U.S. and South America, this is unlikely to lead to prices trending below last March’s lows. Base metals ended major corrective lows as did industrial precious metals together with Crude/Brent oil.

    Commodities Fig #5 – Track Record – GDX - Gold Miners Index – 9th January 2020 by WaveTrack International

    Fig #5 – Track Record – GDX – Gold Miners Index – 9th January 2020 by WaveTrack International

    Fig #6 – Track Record – Crude Oil - Count #2  – 9th January 2020 by WaveTrack International

    Fig #6 – Track Record – Crude Oil – Count #2 – 9th January 2020 by WaveTrack International

    Aftermath of Coronavirus Sell-Off

    V-shaped recoveries have begun from March’s lows and these are sustainable uptrends that are forecast unfolding over the next 2-3 years. But commodity trends don’t head higher in straight lines but are instead punctuated by intervals of corrective declines. Price advances are reaching interim upside targets right now.

    New Commodities Mid-Year 2020 Video – PART II/III

    We’ve amassed over 75 commodity charts from our EW-Forecast database in this mid-year 2020 video. Each one provides a telling story into the way Elliott Wave price trends are developing in this next INFLATION-POP’ phase of cycle development. We’re taking a look at some very specific patterns that span the entire SUPER-CYCLE, explaining why the super-cycle began from the GREAT DEPRESSION lows of 1932 and not from the lows of 1999 and how this ended in 2006-2008 and why the multi-decennial corrective downswing that began soon afterwards has taken the form of a very specific, but identifiable Elliott Wave pattern into the COVID-19 lows.

    We invite you to take this next step in our financial journey with us. Video subscription details are below. Just follow the links and we’ll see you soon!

    Most sincerely,

    Peter Goodburn
    Founder and Chief Elliott Wave Analyst
    WaveTrack International

    Commodities Video Part II

    Contents: 78 charts
    Time: 2 hours 10 mins.

    • CRB-Cash index
    • US Dollar index + Cycles
    • Copper + Cycles
    • Aluminium
    • Lead
    • Zinc
    • Nickel
    • Tin
    • XME Metals & Mining Index
    • BHP-Billiton
    • Freeport McMoran
    • Antofagasta
    • Anglo American
    • Kazakhmys Copper
    • Glencore
    • Rio Tinto
    • Teck Resources
    • Vale
    • Gold + Cycles
    • GDX Gold Miners Index
    • Newmont Mining
    • Amer Barrick Gold
    • Agnico Eagle Mines
    • AngloGold Ashanti
    • Silver + Cycles
    • XAU Gold/Silver Index
    • Platinum
    • Palladium
    • Crude Oil + Cycles
    • Brent Oil
    • XOP Oil and Gas Index

    BUY NOW on WaveTrack’s VIMEO Video On Demand Page

    Click here to buy the COMMODITIES Mid-Year Video Update 2020

  • Each video runs for at least up to 2 hours and it’s packed with SPECIFIC Elliott Wave price-forecasts (the Forex + Bonds Video is 2 hour 10 mins long!).
  • *(additional VAT may be added depending on your country – currently US, Canada, Asia have no added VAT but most European countries do)

    We’re sure you’ll reap the benefits – don’t forget to contact us with any Elliott Wave questions – Peter is always keen to hear you views, queries and comments.

    Visit us @ www.wavetrack.com

    We’re sure you’ll reap the benefits. Don’t forget to contact us with any Elliott Wave questions. Our EW-team is always keen to hear your views, queries, and comments.

    Visit us @ www.wavetrack.com

    Stock Index Mid-Year Video Series – 2020 | PART I/III

    by WaveTrack International| June 24, 2020 | No Comments

    STOCK INDEX VIDEO - COVID-19 Aftermath II – Secular-Bull Market Uptrend Resumes! Elliott Wave Financial Forecasting @ its best! by WaveTrack International

    COVID-19 Aftermath II – Secular-Bull Market Uptrend Resumes!

    This report combines ELLIOTT WAVE with updated SENTIMENT & ECONOMIC INDICATOR STUDIES

    We’re pleased to announce the publication of WaveTrack’s mid-year 2020 video updates of medium-term ELLIOTT WAVE price-forecasts. Today’s release is PART I, STOCK INDICES – Parts II & III will be published during the next month.

    PART I – STOCK INDEX
    • PART II – COMMODITIES
    • PART III – CURRENCIES & INTEREST RATES

    EW-Forecast Review – H1 2020

    The Annual 2020 report published last December (2019) highlighted several main points, including –

  • Dow Jones remains on-course to continue secular-bull uptrend to original upside targets of 40,000 – European indices outperform – Banks, Biotech outperforming sectors

  • T-Minus 3 months & counting – US10yr Breakeven Inflation Rate (TIPS) could delay the next surge higher until end-Q1 2020 – some commodities, Copper, Crude oil have downside risk but closing-in on completing counter-trend declines from 2018’s highs
  • Well, a lot’s happened since then! The coronavirus pandemic has decimated global economies with a collapse in almost all areas of manufacturing and services. Only online sales survived the downturn. But even Amazon’s shares traded sharply lower during the worst of the stock market rout in February/March with declines of -25% per cent compared to the benchmark SP500’s decline of -36% per cent.

    International Monetary Fund (IMF)

    The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has recently made a statement saying the current COVID-19 crisis is ‘unlike anything the world has seen before’. The organisation forecast in April a contraction of -3% for the global economy in 2020. However, the IMF has since said it could be even worse. It noted that the services industry had been more severely impacted than manufacturing. This represents a change from previous crises, where a lack of investment hit manufacturing activity hardest.

    The IMF added ‘For the first time since the Great Depression, both advanced and emerging market economies will be in recession in 2020. The forthcoming June World Economic Outlook Update is likely to show negative growth rates even worse than previously estimated’.

    Global PMI - Source: JP Morgan - WaveTrack International Stock Index Mid-Year Video 2020

    fig #1 – Global PMI – Source: JP Morgan

    This downbeat assessment has been echoed in the data. The IHS Markit/JP Morgan Global PMI Output Index shows a massive slide lower during the height of the coronavirus pandemic. As a result, the index kept falling from 52.0 down to 26.0 before staging a V-shaped rally from the March/April low – see fig #1. The less sensitive quarterly GDP figures haven’t yet reflected that extreme downturn, but they will do once compiled, but lagging behind.

    Enter the Central Banks

    In response to the effects of COVID-19 and the lockdowns, central banks and governments have begun an estimated $15 trillion dollars of stimulus in order to protect their economies from systemic collapse. These are record sums that will explode balance sheets and deficits to peacetime highs and to levels that equate to about 17% per cent of an $87 trillion dollar global economy. It’s a massive undertaking.

    Stimulus so far – $15 trillion and counting

    In a Reuters report from Ritvik Carvalho, it states that central banks have so far unveiled as much as $15 trillion dollars of funding into the financial system in an attempt to reverse the economic slump – see fig #2. It’s caused an exponential rise in the balance sheets. And in reaching that number, Reuters has included the increase in central bank balance sheets since the crisis erupted, new government cash injections and spending pledges, as well as about $7 trillion worth of quasi-fiscal loans and credit guarantees. Much of the latter may never be drawn upon, which would reduce the size of the fiscal stimulus. Central banks will also buy more bonds. Some are even saying there is no cap on purchases, inflating the $15 trillion number between now and end-2020.

    G3 Central Bank Balance Sheets    Sources: Ritvik Carvalho Reuters - Stock Index Video by WaveTrack International

    fig #2 – G3 Central Bank Balance Sheets Sources: Ritvik Carvalho Reuters

    Earlier this month (June), the European Central Bank (ECB) announced that it will increase its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) by €600 billion euros as it attempts to bolster the region’s economy following the coronavirus crisis. The amount is in addition to the existing €750 billion euros of government bond purchases that the ECB announced in March, taking to total to €1.35 trillion euros.

    Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve announced its expanding its current stimulus programme to include the purchasing of corporate bonds as a function of its Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility (SMCCF). The Fed’s stimulus has already exceeded $2.3 trillion dollars and together with various fiscal stimulus by the U.S. government, is expected to be as high as $5.0 trillion dollars.

    Coronavirus – 2nd Wave?

    Just as lockdowns have been relaxed and economies begin to reopen, so warnings have emerged over a 2nd wave of COVID-19 infections.

    The second wave has begun’ said William Schaffner of the Vanderbilt University School of Medicine following reports of a spike in infection rates in Arizona, Florida and California. White House health advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci said in a recent announcement that a second wave of the coronavirus outbreak in the United States ‘could happen’ but is ‘not inevitable’.

    Mike Ryan, executive director of the World Health Organisation’s (WHO’s) Health Emergencies Programme, said ‘calling instances like these a second wave isn’t quite accurate – most of the world right now is still very much in the first wave of this pandemic’ – it’s not surprising at all that any country coming out of this so-called lockdown can have clusters of disease, reemergence of disease’.

    Investors are confused and you can understand why!

    Sentiment

    In the late-May Global Fund Manager survey conducted by Bank of America/Merrill Lynch, it reported that just 10% of fund managers expected a V-shaped recovery, only 25% a new bull market. In contrast 75% expect a U or W-shaped recovery with 68% believing a bear market rally began from the March lows – see fig #3.

    fig #3 - FMS Investors Are Still More Bearish Than Bullish  - Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey - Stock Index Video 2020 by WaveTrack International

    fig #3 – FMS Investors Are Still More Bearish Than Bullish – Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

    Around the same time, Reuters conducted a similar sentiment poll of more than 250 economists highlighting recessions in most major economies would be deeper this year than previously predicted. Almost three-quarters of economists said the recovery would be either U-shaped, with a prolonged trough, or like a tick mark where the speed of the recovery is not as quick as the drop-off. Only 15 respondents predicted a strong, V-shaped recovery. The others said it would be W-shaped, where a vigorous rebound results in another sharp slump, or L-shaped where the economy flat-lines after the downturn – see fig #4.

    fig #4 - Reuters Poll: Expected shape of the global economic recovery - Source: Reuters Polls - www.wavetrack.com Elliott Wave Stock Index Video 2020

    fig #4 – Reuters Poll: Expected shape of the global economic recovery – Source: Reuters Polls

    From this we can discern that fund managers and economists have been very cautious since the COVID-19 pandemic hit financial markets during February/March’s sell-off – and they haven’t changed their opinions into late-May despite stock markets gaining back most of those -36% per cent losses since March’s lows.

    What Next? Elliott Wave Perspective

    COVID-19 Aftermath II – Secular-Bull Market Uptrend Resumes!

    Despite all the conflicting news stories, COVID-19 vs. Central Banks, the outlook for global stock markets are clearly bullish, at least from an Elliott Wave perspective.

    The benchmark SP500 completed a 4th wave correction into March’s low of 2191.86 with a new 5th wave uptrend getting underway since – this explains the V-shaped recovery into the mid-June high – see fig #5. The 4th wave, intermediate wave (4) completed a clearly-defined expanding flat pattern, labelled a-b-c subdividing 3-3-5 from the Jan.’18 high of 2872.87 – all criteria in correctly identifying this pattern were fulfilled, including its overall ‘form’ where wave minor wave a. establishes its initial trading-range ending in Dec.’18 at 2346.58 which is later exceeded slightly as waves b. and c., the former at 3393.52 and the latter into March’s low of 2191.86.

    fig #5 - SP500 - Track Record - dated 25th March 2020 - WaveTrack International Financial Forecasting - STOCK INDEX VIDEO 2020

    fig #5 – SP500 – Track Record – dated 25th March 2020 – WaveTrack International Financial Forecasting

    Importance of Keeping it all in the Right Ratio and Proportion

    Another criteria is ratio and proportion. Ratio is fulfilled where the initial downswing within minor wave a. at 2532.69 is extended by a fib. 61.8% ratio in projecting its low at 2346.58. Also, extending the initial upswing of wave b. to 2954.13 by a fib. 61.8% ratio projects the exact high at 3393.52. The final criteria is overall proportionality where minor wave a. is extended by a fib. 38.2% ratio in projecting the terminal low for minor wave c. to 2172.00+/-, the actual low being just 20 points higher at 2191.86.

    fig #6 - EuroStoxx 50 - Weekly - by WaveTrack International

    fig #6 – EuroStoxx 50 – Weekly – by WaveTrack International

    The completion of the SP500’s expanding flat pattern is not a one-off coincidence. This same pattern is replicated in many other indices. Larger expanding flat patterns also completed last March for European indices too, the Eurostoxx 50 and the Xetra Dax. The Eurostoxx 50’s expanding flat is clearly defined because its second sequence, primary wave B has definitively unfolded into a double zig zag pattern, (A)-(B)-(C)-(X)-(A)-(B)-(C) from the Feb.’16 low of 2672.73 nudging to a momentary higher-high last February ending at 3867.28 – see fig #6. The coronavirus sell-off completed primary wave C into the exact fib. 38.2% extension level of primary wave A’s low of 2672.73 at 2302.84, just 26 points from the idealised measurement!

    Emerging Markets + Asia – Australia – Japan

    Emerging markets tell the same bullish story. They’re all signalling major coronavirus lows last March. The next two charts echo the same bullish outlook across Asian and the rest of the world’s indices – see fig’s #7 + fig #8.

    fig #7 - MSCI Emerging Markets - Track Record dated 19th December 2019 - by WaveTrack International - Stock Index Video 2020

    fig #7 – MSCI Emerging Markets – Track Record dated 19th December 2019 – by WaveTrack International

    This shows last December’s MSCI Emerging Market index forecast in preparation for the 2020 annual video report. It forecast a collapse lower as minor wave c. from a price-expectancy high of 1132-1172+/- towards a low of 825+/- that completes a counter-trend zig zag pattern from the Jan.’18 high.

    fig #8 - MSCI Emerging Markets - Track Record - RESULT! - by WaveTrack International

    fig #8 – MSCI Emerging Markets – Daily – by WaveTrack International

    As you can see, the decline began from 1151 then declined to a major low of 752 before staging a reversal-signature upswing. This is confirming a resumption of its much larger uptrend.

    Conclusion

    Despite all the conflicting news surrounding COVID-19, financial stock markets are giving clearly bullish signs going forward. We’re excited to see these developments and hope you’ll join us in looking through over 70 charts supporting this outlook in our latest mid-year update.

    New Stock Index H2-2020 Video – PART I/III

    This MID-YEAR 2020 VIDEO UPDATE for STOCK INDICES is like nothing you’ve seen anywhere else in the world – it’s unique to WaveTrack International, how we foresee trends developing through the lens of Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) and how its forecasts correlate with Cycles, Sentiment extremes and Economic data trends.

    We invite you to take this next step in our financial journey with us – video subscription details are below – just follow the links and we’ll see you soon!

    Most sincerely,

    Peter Goodburn
    Founder and Chief Elliott Wave Analyst
    WaveTrack International

    What you get!

    Contents: 73 charts – 1 hour 55 mins.
    • Economic Sentiment Indicators (9 charts)
    • AAII Bullish Sentiment
    • Cape P/E Ratio
    • Dow Jones 30 + Cycles
    • S&P 500 + Cycles
    • Russell 2000
    • Nasdaq 100
    • Dow Jones Transport
    • Dow Jones Utilities
    • KBW Banking Index
    • XLF Financial
    • XLK Technology
    • NASDAQ Biotechnology
    • XLP Consumer Staples
    • XLY Consumer Discretionary
    • XOP Oil + Gas Index
    • EuroStoxx 50
    • Xetra Dax 30
    • FTSE-100
    • FTSE-30
    • EuroStoxx Banks
    • Deutsche Bank
    • UniCredit
    • MSCI Emerging Market
    • MSCI BRIC
    • MSCI China
    • China Enterprises
    • MSCI Hong Kong
    • Hang Seng
    • Shanghai Composite
    • Bovespa
    • Russia RTS
    • Sensex
    • Nifty 50
    • Taiwan SE Weighted
    • Singapore Straits
    • ASX 200
    • Nikkei 225

    BUY NOW on WaveTrack’s VIMEO Video On Demand Page

    Click here to buy the STOCK INDEX Mid-Year Video Update 2020

  • Each video runs for at least up to 2 hours and it’s packed with SPECIFIC Elliott Wave price-forecasts (the Forex + Bonds Video is 2 hour 15 mins long!).
  • *(additional VAT may be added depending on your country – currently US, Canada, Asia have no added VAT but most European countries do)

    We’re sure you’ll reap the benefits – don’t forget to contact us with any Elliott Wave questions – Peter is always keen to hear you views, queries and comments.

    Visit us @ www.wavetrack.com

    SP500 – Counter-Trend in Progress to 3213.75+/-

    by WaveTrack International| June 22, 2020 | No Comments

    SP500 – Counter-Trend Zig Zag Rally in Progress from 2923.75 to 3213.75+/-

    For more details, see last Friday’s Elliott Wave Compass Report

    The SP500 began a corrective 2nd wave downswing from the June high of 3231.25 (futures). Labelled as minor wave ii. two, this unfolding into a minute degree a-b-c zig zag pattern, subdividing 5-3-5. It is the correction of minor wave i. one’s five wave impulse advance that began from the March low of 2174.00.

    SP500 Futures - 30 mins. - Track Record 17th June 2020

    SP500 Futures – 30 mins. – Track Record 17th June 2020

    Minute wave a of this corrective zig zag downswing completed already, into the mid-June low of 2923.75. Note its five wave structure, labelled [i]-[ii]-[iii-]-[iv]-[v]. This is being followed by a counter-trend zig zag rally as minute wave b. However, this minute wave b is still incomplete. Labelled [a]-[b]-[c], this must subdivide into a 5-3-5 sequence. Note, wave [a] satisfactorily unfolded into a five wave upswing ending at 3156.25. Although this time last week, wave [b] remained incomplete to the downside where targets were towards 3028.00+/-, max. 3006.75+/-. See fig #1.

    SP500 - 30 mins. - Forecast by WaveTrack International

    SP500 – 30 mins. – Forecast by WaveTrack International

    But overnight selling has now pulled the SP500 down to the 3028.00+/- target level, trading at 3027.25 in completing wave [b] – see fig #2. The immediate response higher is a good indication of its intention to now push higher as wave [c] targeting 3213.75+/- over the next several trading days.

    Once this [a]-[b]-[c] zig zag rally has ended minute wave b, then wave c declines can resume the larger zig zag downswing as minor wave ii. two.

    The Elliott Wave Compass Report

    Get WaveTrack’s latest SP500 forecasts by subscribing to the Elliott Wave Compass report.

    The ELLIOTT WAVE COMPASS report focuses on the shorter-term perspective of price development. Firstly, the report is comprised of two online updates per week. Secondly, it is describing and illustrating a cross-section of market trends/counter-trends for stock indices, bonds, currencies, and commodities from around the world. And above all, this report is ideal for professional and private clients trading a time horizon of just a few days to a few weeks ahead.

    The bi-weekly EW-Compass report offers a short-term perspective for global markets

    · Stock Indices
    · Bonds
    · Currencies (FX)
    · Commodities

    If you like to know more details about the Elliott Wave Compass report click here, please click here

    Institutions

    Italian ITY10yr Yield

    by WaveTrack International| June 5, 2020 | No Comments

    The Italian ITY10yr yield has just broken below key support levels traded last week at 1.417% as the ECB commit to more funding – existing downside targets towards 0.993% remain on-track

    ECB and Yields

    The European Central Bank met earlier this afternoon, deciding on an extension of the Pandemic Purchase Programme (PPP) to at least June 2021. The ECB will buy bonds up to €20bn month plus €120bn this year in a total programme rising from €600bn to €1.35 trillion Euros. The central bank leaves the main refinancing rate unchanged at 0.00% per cent.

    Italy 10yt Yield - Daily - Elliott Wave Forecast by WaveTrack International

    fig #1 – Italy 10yt Yield – Daily – Elliott Wave Forecast by WaveTrack International

    The news of more funding into the financial system was a commitment that sends the ITY10yr yield tumbling lower from 1.592% just before the announcement to 1.373% before closing the session at 1.408%. The break below last week’s support at 1.417% is confirming original downside targets towards 0.993% remain on-track – see fig #1.

    Italy 10yr Yield - Daily - Elliott Wave Forecast by WaveTrack International

    fig #2 – Italy 10yr Yield – Daily – Elliott Wave Forecast by WaveTrack International

    Once completed at 0.993, this decline ends a zig zag pattern for intermediate wave (2) from 2.977 opening the way for a continuation of the larger five wave impulse uptrend as wave (3) towards 3.550+/- and ultimately wave (5) to 3.790+/- sometime next year – see fig #2 & fig #3.

    Italy 10yr Yield - Weekly - Elliott Wave Forecast by WaveTrack International

    fig #3 – Italy 10yr Yield – Weekly – Elliott Wave Forecast by WaveTrack International

    The long-term picture remains unchanged. Cycle wave A’s five wave impulse uptrend is forecast towards 8.820+/- during the next several years – see fig #4.

    Italy 10yr Yield - Quarterly - Elliott Wave Forecast by WaveTrack International

    fig #4 – Italy 10yr Yield – Quarterly – Elliott Wave Forecast by WaveTrack International

    Italian and German 10yr Yield

    The ITY10yr-DE10yr yield spread is clearly narrowing over the medium term over the next several years. However, the intermediate-term picture suggests some narrowing in the short-term. With shorter-term targets towards 1.500+/- as minor wave b. within an a-b-c widening counter-trend upswing of wave (2) that began from the Feb.’20 low of 1.263 (weekly closing chart)see fig #5. Minor wave c. upside targets over the coming year are towards 3.018+/-.

    Italy 10yr-DE 10yr Yield - Weekly - Elliott Wave Forecast by WaveTrack International

    fig #5 – Italy 10yr-DE 10yr Yield – Weekly – Elliott Wave Forecast by WaveTrack International

    Conclusion

    The ECB is obviously ready to go to any lengths to support the Eurozone economy. For the time being, that is triggering lower Italian yields. However, slightly higher DE10yr bund yields as the burden of payment lies with Germany.

    XOP Oil and Gas Index/ETF – Advance

    by WaveTrack International| May 12, 2020 | 2 Comments

    Mid-March $29.48 Low Begins 2½ Year Advance to 1180.00+/-

  • The XOP Oil & Gas Index/ETF ended a major decline last March at 29.48, completing declines that originated from the July ’18 high of 181.80. This downswing is the 3rd wave within a declining five wave diagonal-impulse pattern from 336.16. Next upside targets for the 4th wave are towards 118.00+/- over next 2½ year period
  • Read more «XOP Oil and Gas Index/ETF – Advance»

    SP500 – Heading Lower

    by WaveTrack International| April 28, 2020 | No Comments

    SP500 – Expanding Flat – Heading Lower Towards 2655.75+/-

  • The SP500 has just completed a three wave (a)-(b)-(c) zig zag upswing from the April 21st low of 2717.25 into today’s high of 2913.50. This completes wave [b] of a developing [a]-[b]-[c] expanding flat pattern. Downside targets for wave [c] towards 2655.75+/-
  • SP500 E-mini Futures - 60 mins. - Elliott Wave Forecast by WaveTrack International

    SP500 E-mini Futures – 60 mins. – Elliott Wave Forecast by www.wavetrack.com – WaveTrack International

    The SP500 has just completed a three wave zig zag rally from last week’s low of 2717.25 into today’s high of 2913.50. This pattern is labelled in sub-minuette degree, (a)-(b)-(c). Note how extending wave (a) by a fib. 61.8% ratio projects the terminal high for wave (c) smack into the actual high of 2913.50, validating its completion.

    The 2913.50 high ends a larger degree [b] wave advance within a declining [a]-[b]-[c] expanding flat pattern. By extending wave [a]’s initial decline to 2717.25 by a fib. 14.58% ratio projects a terminal high towards 2910.25, just a slither away from the high.

    Wave [a] can also be extended to the downside by fib-price-ratios in determining the terminal low for wave [c]’s five wave impulse downswing. We’ve selected a fib. 38.2% ratio because this converges with the fib. 50% retracement level of the preceding impulse advance of minute wave 1 that began from the April 2nd low of 2424.75 (log scale). This projects wave [c] towards 2655.75+/-.

    Conclusion

    Identifying this expanding flat pattern verifies the larger advance from the March 23rd low of 2174.00 is a bullish 1-2-1 sequence with another 2nd wave correction underway towards 2655.75+/-.

    This disproves the theory that March’s advance is a corrective zig zag within a secular-bear downtrend. Rather, it proofs the bullish outlook of the secular-bull uptrend of intermediate wave (5).

    If you’d like to see more charts like this, please subscribe to our latest video update – more information here:

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    Gilead Sciences – Stock Pops +16% Overnight!

    by WaveTrack International| April 17, 2020 | 2 Comments

    Gilead Science’s stock pops +16% per cent in the pre-market following its announcement that its coronavirus drug trial shows encouraging early results. However, in the past it has been shown that vaccines need longer testing to be deemed safe.

    Gilead Sciences has been on our stock-watch list since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic began to spread outside of China in early February. Overnight news that it’s made progress in clinical testing of a new drug that combats the symptoms of the coronavirus has sent its stock price up +16% per cent in the pre-market.

    Trading overnight has been as high as 89.38. Although it’s drifted lower in the last hour from that high to 84.20. But could this leap higher have been predicted? Any number of companies engaged in the rush to find a cure for coronavirus could be watched. However, this stock did get our interest early on because of its pattern development.

    Back in December ‘18, Gilead Sciences had completed a multi-year corrective downswing that began from the Oct.’14 high of 116.83 at 60.32 – see fig #1. This correction unfolded into a typical Elliott Wave expanding flat pattern as primary wave 4 whilst labelled in intermediate degree, (A)-(B)-(C).

    Gilead Sciences - Weekly - Financial Forecast by WaveTrack International

    Gilead Sciences – Weekly – Financial Forecast by WaveTrack International

    Gilead and Fibonacci Ratio Analysis

    Wave (A) ended an initial three wave zig zag downswing to 85.95 which was followed by another zig zag upswing to 123.37. Wave (C)’s decline would normally extend below wave (A) by a fib. 38.2% ratio (or sometimes 23.6%. 14.58%). But in this case, it extended by a fib. 100% ratio. This rather uncommon fib-price-ratio measurement was required in order to fully balance the preceding uptrend of primary wave 3’s advance so that wave 4’s percentage correction was at least similar to wave 2’s decline.

    Nevertheless, extending wave (A) by a fib. 100% ratio projected a terminal low for wave (C) to 59.88+/-. The actual low was in close proximity, at 60.32.
    It then spent another year doing absolutely nothing until prices shot higher towards the end of February this year and now overnight to 89.38. As you can see from the chart, upside targets to complete wave (1) were towards 90.70+/-. And in answer to the original question, could this pop higher have been predicted, the answer is clearly yes.

    What Next?

    The long-term uptrend of Gilead Sciences shows an incomplete five wave impulse uptrend in development from the June ’94 low of 0.20 – see fig #2.

    Gilead Sciences - Monthly - Financial Forecast by WaveTrack International

    Gilead Sciences – Monthly – Financial Forecast by WaveTrack International

    The December ’18 low ended primary wave 4 with a percentage decline of -48.3% per cent. Very similar to primary wave 2’s decline of -57.5% per cent.
    Primary wave 5 now seems well established to the upside, notwithstanding a potential wave (2) correction at some stage soon. Other than that, primary wave 5 upside targets remain unchanged towards 235.75+/-. This measurement is derived by extending the initial 1-2-1 sequence from 0.20 to 2.98 by a fib. 161.8% ratio.

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    SP500 – Crisis! What Crisis!

    by WaveTrack International| April 15, 2020 | No Comments

    SP500 – Crisis! What Crisis by WaveTrack International

    The SP500 advance is only three waves up from the March 23rd low – so does this qualify as a corrective a-b-c zig zag within a secular-bear downtrend, or a bullish 1-2-1 sequence within the continuation of the secular-bull uptrend?

    The Big Question

    Given the amount of correspondence received recently, we’d like to address the one big question that rests upon everyone’s lips. Has February/March’s coronavirus sell-off begun a secular-bear downtrend? Or has the March 23rd low ended a counter-trend correction within the continuation of a secular-bull uptrend?

    Our Elliott Wave analysis suggests the March 23rd low ended a correction within the continuation of the secular-bull uptrend. But let’s see if this can really be objectively substantiated.

    Mainstream Elliott Wave analysts are saying we’re entering the beginning of a secular-bear downtrend. However, this seems fanciful and not substantiated basis introspective analysis across varying stock indices. Why not take a look at equities or other asset classes?

    SP500 – Up or Down?

    SP500 Emini Futures - 120 mins. by WaveTrack International www.wavetrack.com

    E-Mini SP500 Futures – 120 mins. by WaveTrack International

    This first chart of the SP500 depicts a five wave impulse downswing from February’s high of 3397.50 ending into the March 23rd low of 2174.00 – see fig #1. This actual low of 2174.00 was forecast on the very day it occurred (see WaveTrack social media updates, twitter and FaceBook dt. March 23rd). See here:

    This decline has excited the bears! Mainly, because the next rally has unfolded into a three wave sequence to current levels of 2836.00+/-. But is this an a-b-c corrective zig zag? Or as we suggest, a bullish 1-2-1 sequence?

    SP500 and The Larger Picture

    Viewed in isolation, both can be equally true! But to answer this truthfully, we must first take a look at how these two sequences, the five wave decline and the three wave rally fit into the larger picture.

    SP500 Index - Daily mins. by WaveTrack International www.wavetrack.com

    SP500 Index – Daily mins. by WaveTrack International www.wavetrack.com

    What must be considered is the way the SP500’s advance from the Dec.’18 low of 2346.58 (cash) unfolded into the Feb.’20 high of 3393.52 – see fig #2. In this chart, we can ‘proof’ that it unfolded into an a-b-c zig zag pattern – from a qualitative perspective, both waves a and c subdivide into a necessary five wave impulse sequence – from a quantitative perspective, this advance fits perfectly into the criteria of unfolding into a zig zag, where wave a is extended by a fib. 61.8% ratio in projecting the terminal high for wave c at 3405.85+/- (small deviation).

    We already know that secular-bull uptrends don’t finish major highs as zig zags but as five wave impulse patterns. The only time a zig zag can end a secular-bull uptrend in this way is if it were the 5th wave within an ending-diagonal, but this is clearly not the case here.

    SP500 Index - Daily mins. by WaveTrack International www.wavetrack.com

    SP500 Index – Daily mins. by WaveTrack International www.wavetrack.com

    This a-b-c zig zag is in fact, the second sequence, i.e. minor wave b. within a larger a-b-c 3-3-5 expanding flat pattern that began unfolding lower as intermediate wave (4) from the Jan.’18 high of 2872.87 – see fig #3. This explains why February/March’s sell-off to 2196.86 unfolded into a five wave impulse pattern, ending at 21941.86 (cash), 2174.00+/- (futures).

    Putting these aspects together, the outlook turns bullish over the next couple of years, not bearish.

    But what about the three wave upswing from the March 23rd low? Well, this must be a bullish 1-2-1 sequence – another 2nd wave correction is due, but that should, must end above the secondary low of 2424.75 (futures).

    Corroboration – Deutsche Bank – UniCredit Bank

    There are many other global indices that support this bullish development – Europe’s Eurostoxx 50 and Xetra Dax, the U.K.’s FTSE-100 are all showing major corrective downswings ended last month. But we’ve also taken a look at the underperforming European Banking Sector to get some idea of which direction the larger trends are developing.

    Deutsche Bank

    SP500 Crisis what Crisis? - Deutsche Bank - Weekly by WaveTrack International

    Deutsche Bank – Weekly by WaveTrack International

    First up is Deutsche Bank. This equity has been underperforming for so long, it’s guaranteed that it will look super-bearish if the SP500 were beginning a secular-bear downtrend. But it’s not! See fig #4. Deutsche Bank is just finishing a major A-B-C zig zag downswing from its all-time high of 105.812 into the March ’20 low of 4.448. We can ‘proof’ this where cycle waves A and C both subdivide into a five wave impulse sequence whilst wave C approaches a terminal low at the fib. 61.8% extension below cycle wave A. Now that’s really bullish. A multi-year rally can begin now. You wouldn’t see that if the SP500 were about to collapse lower!

    UniCredit

    SP500 and UniCredit - Weekly - Financial Forecast by WaveTrack International

    UniCredit – Weekly – Financial Forecast by WaveTrack International

    Second, up is UniCredit Bank. It has also declined into a huge A-B-C zig zag corrective pattern from its all-time high of 256.290 ending into the March ’20 low of 6.420! See fig #5. Even more interesting is how cycle wave C’s decline has unfolded, into a five wave ending/contracting-diagonal pattern. Unlike expanding-impulse patterns, the completion of an ending-diagonal pattern has certain finite limits. It can’t ‘extend’ like an expanding-impulse, instead is confined to its narrowing boundary lines. In all probability, it has already ended its concluding 5th wave at 6.420. Now that’s very bullish going forward, and like Deutsche Bank, has the opportunity to begin a multi-year recovery advance – that wouldn’t be the case if the SP500 were about to collapse lower.

    Conclusion

    There’s no doubt that global economies have been hard hit due to the coronavirus pandemic. Will they recover? Yes, we think they will. It may take longer for Main-Street to pick itself off the ground than Wall-Street. But the omens look good – Crisis! What Crisis!? [Supertramp – circa. 1975].

    If you’d like to see more charts like this, please subscribe to our latest video update – more information here:

    SPECIAL VIDEO – Aftermath of the Coronavirus Sell-off – Inflation-Pop Diluted but Still On-Track

    Get WaveTrack’s latest SP500 forecasts by subscribing to the Elliott Wave Compass report.

    The ELLIOTT WAVE COMPASS report focuses on the shorter-term perspective of price development. Firstly, the report is comprised of two online updates per week. Secondly, it is describing and illustrating a cross-section of market trends/counter-trends for stock indices, bonds, currencies, and commodities from around the world. And above all, this report is ideal for professional and private clients trading a time horizon of just a few days to a few weeks ahead.

    The bi-weekly EW-Compass report offers a short-term perspective for global markets

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    Aftermath of the Coronavirus Sell-off Video Update

    by WaveTrack International| March 27, 2020 | No Comments

    Coronavirus Sell Off - WaveTrack - Elliott Wave Financial Forecasting

    Aftermath of the Coronavirus Sell-off – Inflation-Pop Diluted but Still On-Track

    The coronavirus sell-off in global stock indices has been described by Goldman Sachs as a ‘Black Swan’, a term for an improbable or unforeseen event. Economist Burton Malkiel who authored the 1973 book ‘A Random Walk Down Wall Street’ said he could not spot a recession on the horizon – he also qualified his remarks by saying that predicting a recession is a very difficult task. So was the coronavirus sell-off really an unpredictable, exogenous event or could the downturn have been foreseen?

    Coronavirus – Could it have been predicted?

    From an Elliott Wave perspective, yes, the downturn and even its amplitude could have been predicted. Our own analysis was blinded by the fact that various positive-correlation studies indicated a limited risk to a sell-off because of the extent of gains in technology stocks combined with a maturing counter-trend downswing in key commodities like Copper from 2018 highs. But there was evidence that heightened the downside risk which means it was certainly plausible to predict the downturn (see ‘Update Alert!’ e-mail dt. February 25th – ‘Increasing Risk of -20% Decline’). Almost all U.S. and European indices completed A-B-C zig zag advances from their Dec.’18 lows into the mid-February highs – and that was the clue to the coronavirus sell-off. See fig #1.

    Coronavirus Sell-Off - SP500 - Daily - WaveTrack International

    SP500 – Daily – WaveTrack International

    This report updates the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices which are used as benchmarks for pretty much everything else. The DJ Transportation Average and KBW Banking indices are also updated, giving relevance to the ongoing secular-bull uptrend.

    We also update benchmark commodities that are all-so-important in triggering this next but final phase of inflationary pressures – Copper remains on track, heading for record highs as are many other Base Metals – but the coronavirus sell-off in Silver, Platinum and Crude Oil has diluted their participation – but they’ll still have massive gains over the next few years, they just won’t trade to record highs anymore.

    Dilution of Inflation-Pop

    One of the big ‘take-home’ effects from the coronavirus sell-off is its impact on commodities like Precious Metals and Crude oil. With Silver breaking below its Dec.’15 low of 13.64, that really negates any notion that prices could launch into new record highs during this next but last stage of the ‘Inflation-Pop’ – it’s a similar condition for Platinum too. They will still push dramatically higher over the next few years, but they won’t break to new record highs. Crude oil is similar. Its recent break below the Feb.’16 low of 26.05 to 20.52 has just about negated any chance of it trading to new record highs during the next few years – but it can still test levels towards 99.25+/-.

    What this means is the coronavirus sell-off has in some cases, diluted the up-coming advances for several key commodities during this next but last stage of the ‘Inflation-Pop.

    That’s not the case for many of the mining stocks though – gold and base metal miners are still forecast to new record highs.

    Currencies & Interest Rates

    This report also updates the US$ dollar index and several other major currency pairs. In the annual PART III Currencies & Interest Rate report, over 90 charts of different currency pairs/crosses were updated. Many of those forecasts remain unchanged, especially those US$ Dollar/Asian currency pairs which already depicted dollar strength.

    There are only modest changes to the US$ dollar index and Euro/US$, more for Stlg/US$ and US$/Yen but this report updates others which have seen severe weakness against the US$ dollar including the Aussie Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Norwegian Krona and Brazilian Real.

    Long-dated government bond yields collapsed at the beginning of March. Even though Elliott Wave analysis depicted declines through most of 2019 and into the first quarter of 2020, we didn’t expect the US10yr yield to collapse down to 0.378% per cent! But ‘Update-Alerts’ quickly identified that low as the end of its long-term downtrend, and since, yields have sprung higher to 1.269%. This report examines the trends across varying maturities alongside the latest forecasts for the European DE10yr yield, Italian ITY10yr yield and related spreads.

    S&P 500 – End of the Coronavirus Sell-Off

    On Friday 20th March, the EW-Compass report commented –

    The S&P’s rally from last Wednesday’s low of 2262.00 has so far unfolded higher into only a three wave sequence to Friday’s high of 2497.25… could stretch lower towards 2151.00+/- early Monday/Tuesday this coming week…It now seems inevitable that Monday’s opening will test lower levels before reversal-signatures get triggered. European indices alongside several Asian indices were already completing idealised targets last Thursday – which means the U.S. indices require one additional pull lower before re-synchronising’.

    Sure enough, come Monday 23rd March, the S&P 500 put in a major low at 2174.00 which has since triggered a major ‘reversal-signature’. The S&P’s gain since has rallied by +21% per cent, setting some new records.

    The outlook now turns very bullish despite many analysts crowding around the idea that the secular-bull uptrend has ended with the beginning of an Armageddon collapse on its way – THINK AGAIN! – the evidence suggests otherwise!

    Coronavirus Sell-Off - Bank of America - Bull and Bear Indicator - Souce BofA Global Investment Strategy

    Bank of America – Bull and Bear Indicator – Souce BofA Global Investment Strategy

    One contributing aspect that supports the idea the coronavirus panic has abated comes from the latest Bank of America/Merrill Lynch sentiment Bull & Bear Indicator – see fig #2. It shows extreme measures of bearishness at a reading of 1.7 – by comparison, the Feb. 2nd 2016 low in major indices produced a reading of 0.0 which as we know, produced a sustainable uptrend afterwards. We all know the risks of interpreting this type of data too literally, but accompanied by Elliott Wave analysis, it offers an insight to what’s ahead.

    Update of 2020 Elliott Wave Forecasts

    In this latest video/report, we amassed 54 charts updating the major changes from our 2020 annual trilogy series across each asset class, Stock Indices, Commodities, Currencies & Interest Rates together with key Equities from the Mining Sector. These corroborate the next but final stage of the ‘Inflation-Pop’ asset price surge!

    We invite you to take this next step in our financial journey with us – video subscription details are below – just follow the links and we’ll see you soon!

    Most sincerely,

    Peter Goodburn
    Founder and Chief Elliott Wave Analyst
    WaveTrack International

    How to Subscribe:

    Contents: 54 charts Time: 1 h 27 mins.

    SP500
    Nasdaq 100
    DJ Transportation Average
    KBW Banking Index
    EuroStoxx 50
    Xetra Dax
    Ftse 100
    Hang Seng
    MSCI Emerging Markets
    Nikkei 225
    BHP Billiton
    Antofagasta
    Freeport McMoran
    Rio Tinto
    Vale
    Copper
    Zinc
    Gold
    Silver
    Platinum
    Newmont Mining
    Amer Barrick
    Anglo Gold Ashanti
    Crude Oil
    USD Dollar Index
    EUR/USD
    STLG/USD
    USD/YEN
    AUD/USD
    USD/CAD
    USD/NOK
    USD/BRL
    US 10yr Yield
    USD 5yr Yield
    USD 2yr Yield
    Germany 10yr Yield
    Italy 10yr Yield

    HOW CAN YOU RECEIVE THE VIDEO FORECAST?

    To receive your VIDEO UPDATE please click here to contact us.

    – Please state if you wish to purchase the Aftermath of the Coronavirus Sell-off Video Update March 2020 for USD *48.00 and send us an email to services@wavetrack.com?
    – Next we will send you a PayPal payment request and provide you with the video link & PDF report once payment is confirmed. Please know the reply can take up to 6 hours due to time zone differences. But rest assured we will give our best to provide you with the information as soon as possible!

    *(additional VAT may be added depending on your country of residence. Currently, the US, Canada, Asia have no added VAT but most European countries do)

    We’re sure you’ll reap the benefits – don’t forget to contact us with any Elliott Wave questions – Peter is always keen to hear your views, queries, and comments.

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    SP500 – End of Coronavirus Sell-Off

    by WaveTrack International| March 23, 2020 | 4 Comments

  • The SP500 has just approached downside targets of 2151.00+/- to 2174.00 in overnight trading. This is completing a five wave impulse downswing from February’s high of 3397.50. The final sequence of a multi-year a-b-c, 3-3-5 expanding flat pattern that began from the Jan.’18 high of 2872.87. The outlook is now turning bullish
  • SP500 – End of Coronavirus Sell-Off

    SP500 Futures - E-Mini - 80 mins. - Forecast by WaveTrack International

    SP500 Futures – E-Mini – 80 mins. – Forecast by WaveTrack International

    Last week’s downside targets of 2151.00+/- (futures) has been approached in overnight Asian/European trading to a low of 2174.00. This is in the price proximity for ending the entire five wave impulse downswing as minor wave c. from February’s high.

    Meanwhile, an overnight sell-off in Japan’s Nikkei 225 traded to lower-lows. However, testing corresponding downside targets of 15722+/- to 15600 before staging a resounding bullish reversal-signature trading up to 18220.

    In Europe, the benchmark Eurostoxx 50 and Xetra Dax indices have opened with a gap lower in the cash markets but have held above last week’s lows, triggering a bullish divergence with U.S. indices.

    The US$ dollar index is testing overhead resistance around the 102.79+/- area. If all goes according to plan, last week’s high at 102.99 ended the entirety of the a-b-c zig zag correction that began from the Feb.’18 low of 88.26. A resumption of its 7.8-year cycle downtrend is about to begin.

    Conclusion

    The completion of multi-year expanding flat patterns across several global stock indices, including the benchmark SP500 is confirming the end of the coronavirus sell-off. A resumption of the secular-bull uptrend is about to get underway.

    It will, of course, take longer for global economies to catch-up with gains in financial markets! However, the fact that major indices are already signaling a turn-around must be heralded as good news amidst the continuing efforts to stem the spreading of the coronavirus.

    WaveTrack’s Elliott Wave Compass report

    Get WaveTrack’s latest SP500 forecasts by subscribing to the Elliott Wave Compass report.

    The ELLIOTT WAVE COMPASS report focuses on the shorter-term perspective of price development. Firstly, the report is comprised of two online updates per week. Secondly, it is describing and illustrating a cross-section of market trends/counter-trends for stock indices, bonds, currencies, and commodities from around the world. And above all, this report is ideal for professional and private clients trading a time horizon of just a few days to a few weeks ahead.

    The bi-weekly EW-Compass report offers a short-term perspective for global markets

    · Stock Indices
    · Bonds
    · Currencies (FX)
    · Commodities

    If you like to know more details about the Elliott Wave Compass report click here, please click here

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