WaveTrack International

Elliott Wave Financial Price Forecasting

New Commodities Video Outlook 2023

by WaveTrack International| January 23, 2023 | No Comments

Commodities Video Outlook 2023

Commodities Video Outlook 2023 – ‘Let’s review the main drivers for COMMODITY prices – Inflation, Interest Rates, the likelihood of an Economic Recession and trends in the US$ Dollar’

We’re pleased to announce the publication of WaveTrack’s annual Triple Video Outlook 2023 of medium-term ELLIOTT WAVE price-forecasts. Today’s release is PART II, COMMODITIES – Part I was released last month and Part III will be published in late-February / beginning of March 2023…


Commodities Forecast Highlights 2023!

  • Underlying Base Metals Preparing for another Downturn in 2023
  • Base Metal Miners Dip Lower through Q1/Q2 but Maintaining June-October lows
  • Opportunities in Rare Earth Metals
  • Precious Metals Bullish
  • Gold began Primary Wave 5 Uptrend last September
  • Silver to Outperform Gold
  • Platinum to Outperform Silver
  • Palladium to Outperform Platinum
  • Gold Miners Bullish
  • Energy Continues Downward Correction from 2022 Highs, Crude Brent Oil
  • Nat Gas Puts in a Low Soon
  • Energy XLE/XOP Undergo Sustained Downward Corrections in Q1/Q2 ‘23
  • Commodities Underperformers vs. Outerperformer’s for 2023

    Commodities tied to the fluctuations in the global economic cycle are preparing for another downturn during the first-half of 2023. In many cases, corrective declines that began mid/late-2021 or early-2022. This depended greatly on the specific commodity to remain incomplete with further declines forecast this year, in 2023. Recession fears have since been diluted in January’s optimism, but downside risks remains.

    Base Metals like Copper were initially down in 2022 by -35% but rallied higher from July’s low by +33% per cent. Eroding those earlier losses. Prices are set to decline again though, from current levels.

    Energy markets which were big outperformers in 2022 are also expected lower this year. Crude/Brent oil are expected to see some of the biggest declines together with benchmark XLE and XOP ETF’s. These declines can pull prices down by -40% per cent through the first-half of the year.

    In contrast, Precious Metals bottomed in September ’22 having undergone a successful counter-trend completion over the last two years. Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium are all set to outperform and trend higher whilst industrial commodities decline. Whilst 2-year uptrends are underway, pockets of downward corrections are expected to mirror the US$ dollar’s movements. Find out more amazing details in our Elliott Wave Commodities Video 2023!

    Main Drivers for Commodity Prices

    Commodities main drivers for this year remain with existing inflationary trends, interest rates, the risk of an economic recession and direction in the US$ dollar.

    Double-digit inflation in some developing economic regions of the world has resulted in cap-ex reductions in key commodity areas. Especially, in developing nations, high single-digit inflation has increased fears of a recession this year, in 2023 – see fig #96. Fund managers were unanimous late last year (2022) that persistent inflationary pressures would trigger an economic downturn this year although declines in U.S. CPI from the June ’22 peak of 9.1% to 6.5% has given way to January’s optimism for a mild recession.

    Elliott Wave Commodities Video Outlook 2023 Fig #96 - Double-Digit Inflation - Source: Elements ELEMENTS.VisualCapitalist.com WaveTrack International

    Fig #96 – Double-Digit Inflation – Source: Elements ELEMENTS.VisualCapitalist.com

    ‘Goldilocks’ moment?

    Goldman Sachs analysts are epitomising that change into more optimistic sentiment. They say that commodities have the strongest outlook of any asset class in 2023, with a perfect macroeconomic environment and critically low inventories for almost every key raw material. They said that demand in China is starting to rebound and there’s insufficient investment in supply, meaning the year as a whole will be a ‘Goldilocks’ moment for rising prices.

    The Federal Reserve dot-plot

    The Federal Reserve dot-plot suggests the fed-funds rate will end up around 5.0% per cent. February’s next meeting suggests a slowing down in the pace of increases with the market expecting only 0.25% rate hike. Even so, rising rates remain in the background. The long-end of the interest rate curve, ten-year treasuries and bunds traded in Europe completed counter-trend 4th wave corrections into December’s lows. They’re already showing signs of heading higher. This is really important because if interest rates are set to resume higher, then it will be the major pain trade of the year because just about every bond trader is currently positioned for lower rates, not higher.

    The US$ Dollar

    One of the main contributing factors that’s expected to drive commodity prices higher over the next several years into an ‘inflation-pop’ peak is the weakening of the US$ dollar. There’s a distinct 15.6-year cycle recurrence for the US$ dollar index which has signalled the various peaks and troughs over the past several decades – see fig #105.

    Commodities Video Outlook 2023 - Fig # 105 - US Dollar Index - Composite Cycle by WaveTrack International

    Fig # 105 – US Dollar Index – Composite Cycle by WaveTrack International

    Commodities Video Outlook 2023

    This video is Part II and we’ll be taking a look at over 100 individual commodity contracts and cycles within three main sub-sectors, Base Metals, Precious Metals, Precious and Base Metal Miners and Energy.

    The central themes we’ll be discussing in this video include amongst those mentioned before an update of inflation-sensitive commodities like Food and Energy including ETF’s like the DB Agriculture Fund, XLE and XOP. Furthermore, we’re taking a look at some strategic metals like Iron Ore, Uranium and Rare Earth ETF’s and a few related equities. And much more…

    This is WaveTrack’s state of the art video –only available twice a year– if you are trading commodities this is a must have.


    Peter Goodburn & EW-team

    Commodities Video Outlook 2023 Part II/III

    Contents: 113 charts
    Time: 2 hours 24 mins.

    • US CPI
    • Food and Agriculture Index
    • DB PowerShares Agriculture Fund
    • US Dollar index + Cycles
    • CRB-Cash index + Cycles
    • Copper + Cycles
    • Aluminium
    • Lead
    • Zinc
    • Nickel
    • Tin
    • Iron Ore
    • Uranium
    • Rare Earths
    • BHP-Billiton
    • Freeport McMoran
    • Antofagasta
    • Anglo American
    • Glencore
    • Rio Tinto
    • Vale
    • Gold
    • Gold-Silver Ratio
    • Silver
    • Platinum/Silver Ratio
    • Platinum
    • Palladium/Gold Ratio
    • Palladium/Platinum Ratio
    • Palladium
    • GDX Gold Miners Index
    • Newmont Mining
    • Amer Barrick Gold
    • Agnico Eagle Mines
    • AngloGold Ashanti
    • XAU Gold/Silver Index
    • Fresnillo Silver
    • Crude Oil + Cycles
    • Brent Oil
    • Gasoline RBOB
    • Natural Gas
    • TTF Natural Gas
    • XLE Energy SPDR
    • XOP Oil and Gas Index

    How can you purchase the video?

    1. Contact us @ services@wavetrack.com and ask for a PayPal payment link(please state if you like to purchase the Commodities Single video for USD 49.00 + VAT* or the Triple Video for USD 99.00 +VAT*?).
    2. Additionally, to PayPal we now offer as well payment via credit card payment link

  • Each video runs for at least up to 2 hours and it’s packed with SPECIFIC Elliott Wave price-forecasts (the Stock Indices Video is 2 hour 11 mins long!).
  • *(additional VAT may be added depending on your country – currently US, Canada, Asia have no added VAT but most European countries do)

    We’re sure you’ll reap the benefits – don’t forget to contact us with any Elliott Wave questions – Peter is always keen to hear you views, queries and comments.

    Visit us @ www.wavetrack.com

    We’re sure you’ll reap the benefits. Don’t forget to contact us with any Elliott Wave questions. Our EW-team is always keen to hear your views, queries, and comments.

    Visit us @ www.wavetrack.com


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    About WTI

    WaveTrack International is a financial price forecasting company dedicated to the Elliott Wave principle and work of the R.N. Elliott. Clients include Investment Banks, Pension Funds, Total/Absolute-Return/Hedge Funds, Sovereign Wealth Funds, Corporate and Market-Making/Trading institutions and informed individuals -- & just about anyone who is affected by directional price change.

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