WaveTrack International

Elliott Wave Financial Price Forecasting

Doomsday Dollar, FT and Peter Goodburn

by WaveTrack International| October 1, 2019 | 4 Comments

US Dollar Highlight – This is Peter Goodburn’s response to a Financial Times article published in Monday’s newspaper entitled ‘The Doomsday Dollar Scenario’ by Rana Foroohar

Monday 30th September 2019

Dear Ms. Foroohar,

Just read your article on the US$ Dollar. Your reference Ulf Lindahl at AG Bisset as your source but notice you also build an interesting hypothesis around his idea that the US$ dollar would decline around 50-60% per cent whilst U.S. stock markets begin a generational decline.

WaveTrack is an Independent Research Provider and we specialise in price-forecasting. For price itself, we model the Elliott Wave Principle. And for timing, Cycle Analysis from Edward Dewey’s Foundation for the Study of Cycles model. Above all, both confirm what AG Bisset has hypothesised. The dollar’s decline resumed its 15.6-year cycle in late-2016. Actually, this next decline is its half-cycle interval of 7.8-years – see attached cycle chart (report dt. June 30th 2019, fig #125).

US Dollar Cycle - Monthly - WaveTrack International Financial Forecasting

US Dollar Cycle – Monthly – WaveTrack International Financial Forecasting

Basis EWP model, downside targets for the benchmark US$ dollar index are towards 49.35+/- during this next 7.8-year cycle downtrend – see attached, $indx190806.

US Dollar Index - Monthly - WaveTrack International Financial Forecasting www.wavetrack.com Peter Goodburn

US Dollar Index – Monthly – WaveTrack International Financial Forecasting

US Dollar, the Elliott Wave Principle and Cycle Analysis

The only aspect that seems unlikely basis EWP and Cycle Analysis is that U.S. stock markets begin to trend lower now. Our ‘Inflation-Pop’ hypothesis which we’ve had in place since late-2010/early-2011 remains on course where U.S. stock markets remain in a secular-bull uptrend until its next cycle peak is due, sometime in year-2023 – see attached cycle chart (report dt. Dec. 27th 2018, fig #12).

Dow Jones impact on US Dollar - Quarterly - Cycles - by WaveTrack International Peter Goodburn www.wavetrack.com Elliott Wave

Dow Jones – Quarterly – Cycles – by WaveTrack International

US Dollar – Looking Ahead

Looking ahead, beyond year-2023, yes, U.S. stock markets are set to undergo a quantum shift in the way we’ve perceived investing for a generational term. But this seismic shift will most likely, decimate asset values right across the global horizon. Worst affected will be those economies with the largest debt ratios. Governments will most likely be forced to confiscate wealth in order to ensure survival. That means hitting those at the high-end of the wealth-scale first. Subsequently, taxing property ownership to the point which causes a house-price collapse, triggering an uptrend in interest rates too.

Our analysis leans heavily on long-term historical data. We have interest rate data going back to year-1727 (almost 300 years), the US$ dollar index data begins in year-1660 and stock market data beginning in year-1695.

Would be happy to engage if you would like to follow-up on this intriguing subject. In the meantime, please see our annual 2019 currency market report which is attached – very best wishes,

Peter Goodburn
Founder, Managing Director
WaveTrack International
A Regulated Investment Research Company – BaFin

More insights on US Dollar developments…

If you’d like to learn more about the ‘Shock-Drop-Pop’ and ‘Inflation-Pop’ scenarios, long-term Elliott Wave Analysis + Cycles, see our annual and mid-year reports below.

To review WaveTrack’s mid-year 2019 video-trilogy of long/medium-term ELLIOTT WAVE price-forecasts simply click the links, then follow the instructions!

• STOCK INDICES Mid-Year-2019-Video – PART I
• COMMODITIES Mid-Year-2019-Video – PART II
• CURRENCIES & INTEREST RATES Mid-Year-2019-Video – PART III

Category: Currencies, Cycles, Dewey Cycle, Dow Theory, economy, Elliott Wave, Elliott Wave Principle, Interest Rates, IRP Independent Research, US, US Dollar Index (DXY) (USDX), US$ Index, US-Dollar Index, USD

Comments

4 Responses to “Doomsday Dollar, FT and Peter Goodburn”

  1. Jay Sanderson
    October 2nd, 2019 @ 9:33 pm

    So you wouldn’t give any concern to the 20 year cycle low due in the US market in Q4 2022 to Q1 2023? It seems that cycle has been very reliable to this point.

  2. Wavetrack International
    October 3rd, 2019 @ 10:20 am

    Hi Jay – the 20yr cycle low you refer to never seems to isolate a major price low…it bottomed at the 1942 low but that was above the Great Depression low of 1932…then its next low was in 1962…that was a correction within the prevailing secular uptrend of cycle wave 3…the 1982 low was another correction low within an established uptrend that began in 1974…the next 20yr low was in 2002…again, important, but not an absolute low as this was simply wave A within an A-B-C expanding flat pattern resulting in a lower-low for wave C in 2009…on this evidence, I agree with you, we shouldn’t ignore the next date in 2022/23, but will it again signal a secondary, higher-low?…what might be more important is that sometimes, in cycle analysis, ‘inversion’ occurs…could it be that the 20yr cycle low will ‘invert’ at the same time as the 94-year cycle forms a peak? – that’s certainly possible – what do you think? – PG.

  3. Jay Sanderson
    October 3rd, 2019 @ 2:42 pm

    Its possible but I am preferring to look for a top no later than Q2 of next year which is only 3% early based on your 94 year cycle.

  4. Wavetrack International
    October 3rd, 2019 @ 3:14 pm

    …understood – many thanks for sharing your thoughts! Wishing a great day.

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WaveTrack International is a financial price forecasting company dedicated to the Elliott Wave principle and work of the R.N. Elliott. Clients include Investment Banks, Pension Funds, Total/Absolute-Return/Hedge Funds, Sovereign Wealth Funds, Corporate and Market-Making/Trading institutions and informed individuals -- & just about anyone who is affected by directional price change.

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