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New Commodities 2019 Video Update!

by WaveTrack International| July 8, 2019 | No Comments

WaveTrack Commodities Video Update! Commodities In Final Leg Of 2018’s Corrective Downswing – Additional Sell-Off Forecast Thro’ H2-2019 – Major Lows Year-End Followed By Inflation-Pop Upsurge In 2020

Commodities In Final Leg Of 2018’s Corrective Downswing – Additional Sell-Off Forecast Thro’ H2-2019 – Major Lows Year-End Followed By Inflation-Pop Upsurge In 2020
INCLUDES ANALYSIS ON MEDIUM-TERM CYCLES & EQUITY MINERS

New Commodities 2019 Mid-Year Video Series | PART II/III

We’re pleased to announce the publication of WaveTrack’s mid-year 2019 video updates of medium-term ELLIOTT WAVE price-forecasts. Today’s release is PART II, COMMODITIES – Part I was released last month and Part III will be published later this month, in July.

• PART I – STOCK INDICES – out now!
• PART II – COMMODITIES – out now!
• PART III – CURRENCIES & INTEREST RATES – coming soon!

EW-Forecast Review – H1 2019

The Annual 2019 report published last February (2019) highlighted several main points. Base Metals were set to continue 2nd wave corrective downswings that began almost a year earlier, from the Jan.’18 highs. Copper, Aluminium, Lead and Zinc were all engaged in wave (2) downswings although only at the half-way stage. As barometers of the global economy, this was indicating a period when inflationary pressures that were beginning to build higher for the first time in a decade through 2016 were easing back for a while.

So far this year, benchmark Copper rallied higher into a correction from December ‘18’s low of 5725 ending into the April high of 6608. But prices have since resumed wave (2)’s downswing with a price decline towards 5740. And there’s more to come before year-end! Note the timing correlation with U.S. stock markets.

The same pattern development is unfolding in the other Base Metals, Aluminium, Lead, Zinc and Nickel.

The Next 6 Months?

The latest Elliott Wave patterns indicate some short-term upside potential but targets are limited. Especially, since analysis of the US$ dollar indicates the currency will significantly trend higher into year-end. The downside targets for Copper, Aluminium, Lead and Zinc vary, the smallest is -12% per cent, the largest is -19% per cent.

Base Metal Miners

The trade war initiated by U.S. President Trump with China continued through the first-half of this year but this had little impact for the equity markets. January/February’s forecasts for the benchmark XME Metals & Mining index included an initial downswing from 28.21 to targets of 24.12+/-, ending the entire correction from 2018’s high of 39.62. The actual low traded in late-May to 24.25!! Prices have since trended higher to 28.00. This action was typical for several mining stocks. But one aspect which is recurring across those miners that are directly connected to the Copper sector is that more downside potential exists for the remains 6-month period of 2019.

Precious Metals

Over the last several years, two medium-term wave counts/scenarios exist for precious metals, one super-bullish, the other bearish. When the upside rallies occurred from the grand ‘Re-Synchronisation’ lows of 2016, gold advances by +30% per cent whilst some gold mining stocks rallied by +300% per cent, a 1:10 ratio. This level of underperformance in the underlying bullion price of gold and silver means there’s no longer a certainty they will undergo a sustained uptrend to new record highs during the final stages of the ‘Inflation-Pop’. Rather, they will participate in the next advances, but unfolding into corrective patterns, ending below those current historical highs of April/August 2011. Despite this, the mid-year report updates both scenarios.

Meanwhile, gold has attracted attention recently, since breaking above the 2016 high of 1375.27 but over the next 6-month period, Elliott Wave analysis predicts an initial extension higher, above 1500.00+/- but then a severe counter-trend downswing unfolding into year-end.

Silver has prolonged its 2016 downswing from 21.14 into last September’s (2018’s) low of 13.93 and whilst it is possible to construct an intermediate-term bullish count from this low, and the slightly lower-low of 13.89 traded last November, the following rally into February’s high of 16.22 and its subsequent decline into the late-May low of 14.29 is more leaning towards the confirmation that 2016’s double zig zag pattern is extending into a triple zig zag.

Platinum is positively correlated to silver and is also extending its decennial A-B-C zig zag pattern unfolding lower from historical highs traded back in March ’08 when it was at 2304.00. Downside targets for wave C require a break below wave A’s low of 732.50.

Palladium has been one of the star outperformers since bottoming in Jan.’16 at 450.67 and price rises have continued until reaching a high last March at 1624.33. This began a counter-trend 4th wave correction beginning with a decline of -22% per cent but all of this has since been recovered with a current reattempt of the highs. But another downswing is expected to get underway soon.

Precious Metal Miners

These are expected to outperform the underlying bullion price in the next phase of the ‘Inflation-Pop’ uptrend, due to resume later this year. But as bullion gold, silver, platinum, even palladium pull lower into year-end, so does a pause occur in the mining stocks.

In the shorter-term, further gains are expected in July/August but then turning lower afterwards to begin a correction. This report examines how deep those corrections can unfold.

Several precious metal mining stocks like Newmont Mining project uptrends towards 166.00+/- over the next several years (currently 38.30) although some form of correction is seen unfolding from current shorter-term upside targets. Other miners including Barrick Gold, Agnico-Eagle Mines, AngloGold Ashanti each have a similar wave count/structure to the GDX.

Commodities – Energy

There’s a certain fascination with the energy contracts of Crude & Brent oil because their price declines from the 2011 highs which coincided with Base/Precious Metal interim peaks within the ‘Inflation-Pop’ uptrend ultimately broke below the financial-crisis lows, unlike their commodity counterparts.

Crude oil

The low in Feb.’16 for Crude oil at 26.05 ended a zig zag downswing from the all-time-high of 147.27 traded in July ’08. That means the following advance from 26.05 is either a single zig zag as wave X ending into Oct.’18 high of 76.90 a developing double zig zag that ultimately extends to new record highs, at some stage over the next several years.

Our take on this depicts a double zig zag unfolding to record highs – why? Because it’s positively correlated to the driving force of the global economy, U.S. stock markets and eventually, a weakening US$ dollar. Stock markets are forecast to higher-highs over the next several years – the US$ dollar correspondingly engaged in a downtrend (notwithstanding the opposite moves during H2 2019).

The sharp decline from the Oct.’18 high of 76.90 began an X wave correction in the form of an A-B-C zig zag, but this remains incomplete. Downside targets are below last December’s low of 42.36 which can only mean one thing – a dip in global growth will limit consumption over the next 6-month period, pulling prices lower.

Brent oil

Brent oil has exactly the same rhythm as Crude oil. Brent formed its major low in Feb.’16 at 27.10 and is engaged in a cycle degree A-B-C-X-A-B-C double zig zag advance which ultimately projects prices trading to new record highs over the next several years.

Shorter-term however, a stronger US$ dollar through H2 2019 combined with a slowing of global growth pulls prices lower as wave X – downside targets are below the Dec.’18 low of 49.93.

XLE Energy index

One interesting contradiction comes from the XLE Energy index. Its Dec.’18 low at 53.36 ended a primary degree expanding flat correction which began from the Dec.’16 high of 78.45. Furthermore, the Dec.’18 advance into the May ’19 high of 68.81 completed the 1st wave of a new major uptrend and this was followed by a zig zag correction ending just recently, at the end-May low of 58.77. That ended a 2nd wave retracement at the exact fib. 61.8% level, confirming the next stage of its 3rd wave uptrend has already begun. Some pullback can be expected over the shorter-term horizon, perhaps reattempting the 58.77 low if Crude/Brent stage expected declines, although not breaking below that support. But it does question the validity of the comparably larger declines forecast for Crude/Brent oil through H2 2019.

Conclusions

As the second-half of 2019 gets underway, there are several aspects to be aware of. The first is the heightened probability that the US$ dollar will now accelerate higher by up to +7% per cent. Base Metals are still engaged in 2nd wave corrective downswings that began from the early-2018 highs. Precious Metals are set to pull lower over the next 6-months despite gold recently breaking above its 2016 highs. Crude and Brent oil have yet to complete zig zag downswings that began from their 2018 highs (similar pattern to Base Metals), requiring a modest break below last December’s lows.

The natural conclusion is that the global economy will take a dip in growth during the next 6-month period, causing stock markets to extend counter-trend declines that began from the early-May highs, triggering safe-haven buying of the US$ dollar and pulling economic-sensitive commodities lower in the process.

New Commodities H2-2019 Video – PART II/III

This MID-YEAR 2019 VIDEO UPDATE for COMMODITIES is like nothing you’ve seen anywhere else in the world – it’s unique to WaveTrack International, how we foresee trends developing through the lens of Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) and how its forecasts correlate with cycles across several sectors, Base Metals, Precious Metals & Energy.

We invite you to take this next step in our financial journey with us – video subscription details are below – just follow the links and we’ll see you soon!

Most sincerely,

Peter Goodburn
Founder and Chief Elliott Wave Analyst
WaveTrack International

Contents: 69 charts

• CRB-Cash index + Cycles
• Copper + Cycles
• Aluminium
• Lead
• Zinc
• Nickel
• Tin
• XME Metals & Mining Index
• BHP-Billiton
• Freeport McMoran
• Antofagasta
• Anglo American
• Kazakhmys Copper
• Glencore
• Rio Tinto
• Gold + Cycles
• GDX Gold Miners Index
• Newmont Mining
• Barrick Gold
• Agnico Eagle Mines
• AngloGold Ashanti
• Silver
• XAU Gold/Silver Index
• Palladium
• Platinum
• Crude Oil + Cycles
• Brent Oil
• XLE Energy SPDR Index

CONTACT US NOW VIA EMAIL – SELECT YOUR PACKAGE

Single Video – *$48.00 – PART II Commodities Video 2019 (July ’19)
Triple Package offer – *$96.00 (saving 33%)! – PART I – PART II – PART III (June/July ’19)

  • Each video runs for at least 1 hour 20 minutes and it’s packed with SPECIFIC Elliott Wave price-forecasts (the Commodities Video is already 1 hour 58 mins. long!).

    • *(additional VAT may be added depending on your country – currently US, Canada, Asia have no added VAT but most European countries do)

  • BONUS! Each of the 38+ charts. The Commodities Video Outlook 2019 contains 69 charts already. illustrated in the VIDEOS will be created into a .pdf document/report and sent to you so that you can always keep these to refer to!

    • PART III will be available in a few weeks’ time (February/March 2019!) – we’re working on it!

    HOW CAN YOU RECEIVE THE VIDEO FORECAST?

    To receive your VIDEO UPDATE please click here to contact us.
    – Please state if you wish to purchase the SINGLE VIDEO – Commodities Video 2019 for USD *48.00?
    – Or opt for the TRIPLE PACKAGE for USD *96.00 in total?
    – Next we will send you a PayPal payment request and provide you with the video link & PDF report once confirmed.
    – Alternatively, we can process credit card payments for you as well – please contact us. Thank you.

    *(additional VAT may be added depending on your country of residence. Currently, the US, Canada, Asia have no added VAT. However, most European countries do)

    We’re sure you’ll reap the benefits – don’t forget to contact us with any Elliott Wave questions – Peter is always keen to hear you views, queries and comments.

    Visit us @ www.wavetrack.com

    Category: Agnico Eagle Mines, AngloGold Ashanti, Base Metals, Commodities, CRB, Crude oil, crude oil price chart, Cycles, Elliott Wave, Fibonacci-Price-Ratio, Financial Forecasting, Gold, Gold Mining, Mines, Mining, Palladium, Platinum, Precious Metals, Silver, trading, US Dollar Index (DXY) (USDX)

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