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Elliott Wave Financial Price Forecasting

GOOGLE – Fib-Price-Ratio Study

by WaveTrack International| December 7, 2016 | 1 Comment

Check this Out! – Fib-Price-Ratio Study Pinpoints Google low at 727.54

Fibonacci-Price-Ratios (FPR’s) form an integral part of the Elliott Wave process of identifying reversals in major markets. Over the last twenty years, we’ve catalogued and archive several hundred examples of how fib-price-ratios can be used in a systematic way to identify a pattern’s completion and a subsequent change of direction/trend.

Each of R.N. Elliott’s 13 patterns have a short-list of accompanying fib-price-ratios that recur with high frequency. This means applying those fib-price-ratios that are specific to the pattern that is evolving. Using this standard approach requires discipline but it’s definitely worth the effort in learning them.

In this example, we can see that Google Inc. declined from its October 25th high of 816.68 into a simple corrective pattern, specifically, a three wave/price-swing zig zag that subdivides 5-3-5 – see fig #1. Once wave [a] of the zig zag has completed, in this case at 750.56, the standard approach is to extend wave [a] by a fib. 38.2% and 61.8% ratio. The former projects wave [c] declines to 726.74 and the latter to 712.40. Once wave [b] ends its counter-trend correction, in this case to 795.63, one additional fib-price-ratio measurement can be applied – this one, I’m sure you’re familiar with already – using a fib. 100% correlation ratio, measuring the equal length/amplitude of waves [a] and [c] – that would project a terminal low for wave [c] towards 731.21.

161207b Google 440x342 GOOGLE   Fib Price Ratio Study

Google Inc. – 30 mins chart

But one subtle observation also comes through in the analysis of this zig zag decline – wave [b] was quite a deep retracement, slightly more than a fib. 61.8% ratio. That’s important because when ‘B’ waves extend beyond the fib. 50% retracement level, there is a greater statistical probability that wave [c] declines will halt at the fib. 38.2% extension level of wave [a]. And in Google Inc.’s case, it did, wave [c]’s decline ended right into the fib. 38.2% extension target zone, with an actual low formed at 727.54 – not bad!

Looking ahead, we can apply the same FPR guideline to the following advance from 727.54. The next high unfolded into a typical five wave expanding-impulse pattern, ending at 775.00 on November 18th. This means upside continuity into the future. If we don’t know what the larger Elliott Wave pattern is, then this advance can be either the beginning of a new five wave uptrend or another zig zag, this time, wave [x] within the continuation of a double zig zag decline from 816.68 as minute wave 2. Either way, an upside attempt is consistent for both wave counts/scenarios. And so, extending the initial five wave upswing from 727.54-775.00 by a fib. 38.2% and fib. 61.8% ratio projects two upside objectives to either 793.94+/- or 805.87+/-. These are, of course, minimum upside targets based in the assumption the entire advance from 727.54 is a zig zag pattern, labelled wave [x]. When prices test either of these levels, we’ll check on whether a five wave subdivision is evident in this next advance from 737.02 – if it does subdivide into a five wave pattern then stages price-rejection, we’ll know that it is ending wave [x] and that prices will then begin a secondary zig zag decline that ultimately trades below 727.54.

But should the price action thrust above these levels, it would otherwise indicate Google Inc. has resumed its much larger/aggregate uptrend as minute wave 3.

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GOLD – Sentiment Extremes

by WaveTrack International| December 1, 2016 | No Comments

If you’re feeling Bearish – Stop it now! Break bad habits

GOLD WaveTrack ElliottWave 440x220 GOLD   Sentiment Extremes

Isn’t it amazing to see how extremes in price activity ultimately expose the fragility of the human condition? The markets are a terrific teacher in training us to master ourselves, in an effort to conquer our whims and emotions that flood through the veins during times of price excess. There are degrees of excess which of course, translates itself into the fractal model of the Elliott Wave Principle. Major peaks like the dot.com highs of year 2000 or the sub-prime peak of 2007 are naturally exposing euphoric sentiment at much higher levels than say intermediate highs traded in 2011. Likewise, major lows are similarly graded, although we rely on sentiment models to help determine each rating.

03 gold161201 440x284 GOLD   Sentiment Extremes

Gold Forecast – 19th Jul 2016 – Result! 1st December 2016

It’s an ongoing, life-time process of self-development with the goal of withdrawing oneself from the capture of the herd instinct – trading in the crowd, which ordinarily turns bullish at highs and bearish at lows. It’s a difficult process to master - to sell when the herd is buying or is bullish, and to buy when the herd is selling or bearish. But once practised, amazing revelations are there for each of us to grasp onto. For example, the herd was bullish into gold and silver’s highs of last July/August even though this proved to be an important peak. Our Elliott Wave report at the time turned bearish because of two factors – Elliott Wave analysis and the bullish sentiment extremes of the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports. And so it comes as no surprise to read that some analysts, commentators are suddenly questioning gold and silver’s uptrends established earlier this year, just because prices are now considerably lower than they were 3-4 months ago.

The renowned gold bullion dealers Sharps Pixley (SP) are obviously not immune to the trials of self-development as they lead an article published Wednesday November 30th entitled ‘Gold’s 2016 Rally Was Built On Sand’. It states that physical precious metal demand was lacking in this year’s run higher, exposing the trends weakness. Oh, we lament! If this was really a concern, why not publish these facts at the peak in July/August – why wait ‘till now? Of course, we know why. Analysts are beginning to think about annual 2017 forecasts – some have already penned opinions that a rising US$ dollar and higher interest rates will keep precious metals from trending higher. We’ve seen a few reports already taking this line of thought so SP is not alone. But to the trained nose and with a little help from EW and sentiment statistics, an important low in gold and silver is not too far off.

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Biotechnology (NBI) Fades After Trump-Jump

by WaveTrack International| November 23, 2016 | No Comments

NdxBioTech 161123 440x342 Biotechnology (NBI) Fades After Trump Jump

NASDAQ Biotechnology Index – 30 mins.

NBI Fades After Trump-Jump | Biotechnology Index (NBI)

The Biotechnology Index (NBI) jumped higher following the Trump election win – this was no great surprise from an Elliott Wave perspective because prior to the voting, the NBI had already begun a counter-trend rally in response to the completion of a preceding five wave impulse decline that began from 3154.36. The only deviation from original forecasts higher towards 61.8% resistance at 2923.00+/- was the depth of the rally. But given the market’s unexpected response, it’s not unusual to see targets being extended in a moment of emotive short-covering.

The index has since traded up to 3075.45 – that’s almost a fib. 85.4% retracement of the 1st wave decline, about maximum for a deep 2nd wave retracement. As other major indices stretch to new higher-highs, the NBI is already waning, gradually working its way lower as if to begin its 3rd wave decline. Basis the preceding five wave pattern unfolding within the decline from September’s high of 3154.36 into the early-November low at 2582.20, it should be impossible for the index to trade any higher, and definitely not break above 3154.36. Could it be that this index is providing a pre-cursor look at an imminent downtrend getting underway for the broader market?

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Presidential Election – TRUMP Win! – Elliott Wave

by WaveTrack International| November 9, 2016 | No Comments

sp161109 440x342 Presidential Election – TRUMP Win!   Elliott Wave

S&P500 – 240 mins vs. S&P 500 E-Mini


S&P 500

Donald Trump has just passed through the electoral finishing line ahead of Hilary Clinton to become President elect. That was a surprise outcome given the proximity and location of various stock indices – but the real irony is the fact that the market’s reaction is behaving perfectly in-line with the Elliott Wave forecasts!

The August decline was labelled as a developing zig zag pattern with downside targets towards 2067.25+/- basis the cash index. The cash index is currently closed having ended last night (Tuesday) at 2139.53. But the futures contract has reacted down to 2028.50 on news that Trump was first to reach 270 electoral votes but in so doing, has ended the zig zag at this lower level, derived not by extending wave (a) of the zig zag by a fib. 61.8% ratio but by a fib. 100% ratio.

The markets have reacted higher since to 2095.00.

What does this tell us about the future direction of the S&P? Firstly, it affirms the assumption that the August decline is a counter-trend within the larger/aggregate uptrend – so that refutes the doom & gloom-ers that cite a secular-bear decline about to begin. Secondly, the counter-trend reaction that has already begun following the trade to 2028.50 is likely to last another few trading days, perhaps ending sometime early next week. This will enable indices like the Biotechnology (NBI) index to complete its own counter-trend upside rally (see Tuesday’s blog).

On another level, a Trump victory seems not to have changed the larger/aggregate picture as described in recent months. The short-term rallies may extend into next week but then fade as the larger, more bearish patterns are still indicating a double-digit percentage decline lies ahead.

This inevitably means adopting the more bearish ‘alternate count’ #2 scenario for the S&P where today’s zig zag completion to 2028.50 is simply the first zig zag in an ongoing double formation. A secondary zig zag decline would eventually pull the index lower over the next few months towards 1934.00+/-. This would align with the double-digit percentage declines we expect from other major indices, notably the Eurostoxx 50 and the Nikkei 225.

More on this subject in tonight’s Market Report

Presidential Election – Clinton Win! – Elliott Wave

by WaveTrack International| November 8, 2016 | No Comments

USElection WaveTrack Biotech 440x220 Presidential Election – Clinton Win!   Elliott Wave

Presidential Election – Clinton Win! – Elliott Wave

Biotechnology Index (NBI)

As the U.S. electorate goes to the polls, it still seems that the battle between Trump & Clinton is a close-run race for the White House. Latest opinion-polls places Trump on 43.6% of the vote, Clinton slightly ahead at 46.8% per cent, 9.6% per cent abstaining. But can the Elliott Wave Principle offer some insights ahead of the result?

In last Friday’s report, we had identified a counter-trend rally for most of the major global stock markets about to begin – that was confirmed Monday morning when the FBI announced Clinton’s reprieve. But now that prices have rallied higher, is this just a counter-trend rally and the prelude to a major sell-off ahead of a Trump win? The latest update of the short-term wave development of the Biotechnology index (NBI) says no.

NdxBioTech 1611081 440x342 Presidential Election – Clinton Win!   Elliott Wave

Biotechnology Index – 30 mins.

During the last month, the Biotechnology index (NBI) has underperformed the market significantly, declining from its late-September high by -18% per cent. But its five wave pattern has been confirmed as ending just a few days ago at 2582.20. A counter-trend upswing has only just begun. R.N. Elliott’s guideline is that a corrective [rally] will return prices to ‘fourth wave preceding degree’, towards 2827.09, in which case, this has more upside potential.

The markets binary-think assessment of the election outcome is that a Trump win would send the major market indices down by between 5-10% per cent. Basis this Elliott Wave count, that outcome can be eliminated. It would indicate a Clinton victory.

Looking ahead, the upswing is so far, attempting to unfold into a five wave impulse pattern – a fib. 38.2% correction would take the index to an interim target at 2787.00+/-. Extending this by a fib. 61.8% ratio would eventually take the index above resistance at ‘fourth wave preceding degree’, towards the fib. 61.8% retracement area at 2923.00+/-.

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SP500 Cycle – PLUS Elliott Wave ‘Buy Signal’

by WaveTrack International| October 17, 2016 | No Comments

ElliottWaveTrack Video Stock Index 440x220 SP500 Cycle – PLUS Elliott Wave ‘Buy Signal’

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SP500 Cycle – PLUS Elliott Wave ‘Buy Signal’

This is just one of WaveTrack International’s proprietary devised composite cycles for the S&P 500. It highlighted this year’s major low last January/February as the index traded to an extremity of 1810.10. It also combined with Elliott Wave analysis that pinpointed the low as ending a multi-month double zig zag pattern that began from the May ’15 high. When these two deterministic disciplines come together, a high-probability event is triggered.

01 sp160205 Cycle Daily 158 145 122 115 104 95 88 440x342 SP500 Cycle – PLUS Elliott Wave ‘Buy Signal’

S&P 500 Cycle – Combined with Elliott Wave ‘Buy Signal’

The rest is history – the S&P has since traded to new record highs, to 2193.81 into a mid-August high. The composite cycle also forewarned that the next important cycle-peak would come in late-July.

If you’d like to examine these cycles for yourself, send us a message requesting our latest video series updates of the medium/long-term forecasts for STOCK INDICES. Use the Help-desk located at wavetrack.com or send us an e-mail request (address in same location). June publication – US$48.00.

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Eurostoxx 50 – Elliott Wave Running Flat

by WaveTrack International| October 12, 2016 | No Comments

EuroStox161012a 440x342 Eurostoxx 50   Elliott Wave Running Flat

EuroStoxx 50 – 60 mins. Elliott Wave Forecast

Elliott Wave Running Flat – Eurostoxx 50

Our recent short-term post of the Eurostoxx 50 described how a horizontal flat corrective patterns turns into a running flat. Actually, the only real difference is in the way its third sequence, labelled wave c. (minor degree) falls short of ‘idealised’ horizontal/parallel targets which effectively means it ‘truncates’, due to a build-up of selling pressure, as in the case of this example – see fig #1.

This is not just educational because it also offers a glimpse into how this index is changing direction and now heading lower. The horizontal/running flat pattern has finalised this balancing/corrective sequence in response to the earlier five wave expanding-impulse decline that unfolded between 3103.00-2908.00 as intermediate wave (1). This establishes a downtrend. So now, with the horizontal/running flat pattern ending wave (2), there is a heightened probability that the downtrend will now resume, as wave (3) with some impressive declines ahead.

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GOLD – Elliott Wave Compass Track Record and Forecast!

by WaveTrack International| October 6, 2016 | No Comments

01 gold160708 440x342 GOLD   Elliott Wave Compass Track Record and Forecast!

GOLD – 420 mins. Forecast dated 8th July 2016

Elliott Wave Compass Track Record – SELL SIGNAL GOLD – July 8th 2016 – Gold Declines Ahead!

How did you do? Accountability: this is one of WaveTrack’s amazing forecasts published in the renown Elliott Wave insider publication called Elliott Wave Compass.

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Eurostoxx 50 – Elliott Wave Running Flat

by WaveTrack International| October 4, 2016 | No Comments

When a Horizontal Flat turns into a Running Flat

Recent updates in our bi-weekly reports have intoned a very bearish outlook for global stock markets for the next several months. This is mainly because of multi-month running flat patterns unfolding in indices like the Eurostoxx 50 and Nikkei 225, ending early-September.

EuroStox161004 440x342 Eurostoxx 50   Elliott Wave Running Flat

EuroStoxx 40 – 60 mins.

For the Eurostoxx 50, this running flat pattern ended at 3103.00 (futures). The subsequent decline affirms the bearish outlook for the next several months because it unfolded into a clearly visible Elliott Wave impulse pattern, specifically, a five wave expanding-impulse ending at 2908.00 – see chart, fig #1.

This has subsequently been balanced by a counter-trend upswing which is just completing, now, at 3030.00. The correction has unfolded into a horizontal flat and labelled in minor degree, a-b-c, subdividing 3-3-5. The horizontal flat is identified because its second sequence, minor wave b. unfolded into a three wave zig zag, but completed at the horizontal low of the origin of minor wave a., at 2908.00.

Ordinarily, the third sequence as minor wave c. would be expected to now unfold higher whilst unfolding into a five wave pattern, but ending at the horizontal high that ended minor wave a. / began minor wave b. at 3050.00. But in this case, it has run short, ending the five wave pattern at 3030.00. This means the horizontal flat changes into a running flat because wave c. is ‘truncated’.

Some Elliott Wave practitioners eliminate the possibility that a horizontal flat, where waves a. and b. remain horizontal can allow wave c. to run short to mutate into a running flat. The argument is that wave b. ordinarily would break below the extremity of wave a. to validate this. For the record, this is not necessary, as this chart proves.

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The Silver Wheaton Difference!

by WaveTrack International| September 22, 2016 | No Comments

ElliottWaveTrack SilverWheaton 440x220 The Silver Wheaton Difference!

Silver Wheaton – Metals & Mining Update


Many of the silver miners formed simultaneous lows last January (2016) which have since triggered new intermediate & medium-term uptrends. For some, the January lows ended counter-trend zig zag/double zig zag patterns dating back to pre-financial-crisis highs of Nov.’07/April 2008 i.e. Silver Standard Resources, Pan-American Silver Corp. whilst Silver Wheaton Corp. simply ended a smaller counter-trend phase of declines that began from the April ’11 highs. The big difference was that Silver Wheaton Corp. did not break below its financial-crisis low of 2.51 whilst the others did in order to complete their own corrective patterns. This means that Silver Wheaton Corp. is outperforming relative to its 2011 high.

There is scant historical data for these equities which makes intermediate/medium-term forecasting difficult, in terms of precise wave counting but especially true for amplitude measurements. All we do know is that if medium-term Fibonacci-Price-ratios are used for Silver Standard Resources & Pan-American Silver Corp., measuring their initial advances from major lows of August ’98 and April ’01 respectively into those pre-financial-crisis highs, adding these fib. 100% ratios for an equality measurement from the Jan.’16 lows, then upside targets are towards 279.00+/- and 98.50+/-. That’s gains of 7,543% and 1,730%. For Silver Wheaton Corp. a similar fib. 100% equality ratio is used measuring the post-financial-crisis upswing then adding this to the Jan.’16 low of 10.04 to yield targets towards 190.40+/- reflecting potential gains of 1,800% per cent. As historical data is even shorter for Silver Wheaton Corp., such targets could be erroneous. For the time being, we rely on the internal structure of January’s developing five wave impulse advance to determine that a minimum upside target towards 71.00+/- is viable during the next couple of years.

Elliott Wave Case Study

There is still doubt in many quarters of the commodity markets that industrial metals, like silver have begun new uptrends. It was earlier this year when commodity prices extended lower in January/February that mainstream analysts were marking prices heavily down alongside forecasts of incremental U.S. interest rate rises. Neither were realised. Even though some impressive gains have since taken place, sceptics continue to argue the bearish case that rallies are simply counter-trend – that major secular-bear downtrends are in progress. The purpose of examining price declines of Silver Wheaton Corp. during the year-2011/2016 period is an attempt to ‘proof’ this was just a counter-trend sequence within a prevailing uptrend.

SilverWheaton 160920a 440x342 The Silver Wheaton Difference!

Silver Wheaton Corp. – Weekly – Forecast

An important high formed in April ’11 at 47.60 – see fig #1. As historical data is limited (begins July ’05), this high represented a new record high which for the purposes of examination, ended primary wave 3 although we can’t be certain. But what is very tangible is the way the subsequent declines have unfolded as primary wave 4 – into a precise Elliott Wave corrective pattern, a seven price-swing double zig zag labelled in intermediate degree, (A)-(B)-(C)-(X)-(A)-(B)-(C).

There are some interesting aspects of this pattern. For example, it began with a leading-expanding-diagonal as wave (A), completing into the May ’12 low at 22.94. This is quite an unusual start for a multi-year decline, but perfectly acceptable. Wave (B) rallies followed, complying with one of R.N. Elliott’s guidelines where retracements head back towards ‘fourth wave preceding degree’, as it did ending at 41.30. Wave (C) declines then got underway, unfolding into a more common five wave ‘expanding-impulse’ pattern defined where its 3rd wave undergoes ‘price-expansion’, eventually ending at 17.75. This is an extension to ‘alternation’ as we know it – so this guideline adopts the concept that if wave (A) unfolds into a ‘diagonal-impulse’ then wave (C) has a tendency to unfold into a more simplistic ‘expanding-impulse’ (and vice-versa).

Now it’s worth noting Fibonacci-Price-Ratio analysis because extending wave (A) by a fib. 38.2% ratio projects the terminal low for wave (C) towards 17.36+/-. The actual low ended just a fraction higher at 17.75 – good enough to verify!

TIP: Why use a fib. 38.2% ratio and not 61.8%? One of the fib-price-ratio guidelines that we’ve documented is this – when wave (B) retraces wave (A) by a fib. 50% ratio or more, then extend wave (A) by a fib. 38.2% ratio to determine the terminal completion of wave (C). If on the other hand, wave (B) ends shorter than a fib. 50%, use 61.8%.

The next observation was something unusual. Intermediate wave (X) unfolded into a three wave triangle, not a conventional five wave sequence. Each of these three price-swings subdivide into 3’s three’s, but the completion at 27.66 leaves behind only a three wave triangle. We’ve documented these in the past and have archived them for reference, but the fact that they can occur is enough to validate one trading guideline that we use daily – never await the completion of a five price-swing triangle to take a trade – always attempt to initiate the trade at the end of the third sequence. Unless this is an expanding triangle, trading wave ‘c’s completion won’t stop you out as wave ‘e’ will normally complete within wave ‘c’s range.

The secondary zig zag pattern began from 27.66 with wave (A) ending at 16.57 – nothing unusual about this except that it ended up being quite a bit shorter than wave (C). Now, to determine a terminal low for the secondary zig zag, the first between 47.60-17.75 must be extended by two ratios – fib. 38.2% and 61.8% projecting downside targets to either 12.18+/- or 9.65+/-. Then, cutting the secondary zig zag from 27.66 by a fib. 61.8% ratio to both downside levels, an interim target for the secondary (A) wave is derived, to either 16.70+/- or 14.40+/-. When wave (A) ended at 16.57, close to the 16.70+/- level it originally heightened the probability of wave (C) eventually ending at 12.18+/-.

When wave (C) did get underway, the internal structure of the pattern did not compete a five wave subdivision into the 12.18+/- level, so this was the first indication that it would eventually extend to the next ‘golden-section’ 0.618 number towards 9.65+/-. The actual low formed at 10.04 but justifying that golden-section ratio with a reversal-signature afterwards. It’s also a good idea to compare Silver Wheaton Corps. pattern with its peers – this often assists in determining a more exact, terminal low.

The rest is history – a new multi-year uptrend has since begun.

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