WaveTrack International

Elliott Wave Financial Price Forecasting

Preparing for a year-end video update! (II)

by m.tamosauskas| December 18, 2014 | No Comments

The year-end is knocking on the door and we are preparing our annual video update of medium/long-term Elliott Wave forecasts for institutional clients and EW-Compass subscribers. Publication release is scheduled over the New Year. We can promise a few surprises this year with some new medium/long-term counts introduced that we haven’t shown in the past. As always, the update will include many global stock market indices, currencies, interest rates and probably the most important asset class for 2015, commodities! The main theme under discussion is the approach of upside targets for U.S. stock indices initially forecast over 4-years ago – and its relationship to the upcoming 2nd phase of the ‘inflation-pop’  for commodities – also, how do these asset classes fit together and what trends will dominate during the next few years? In the meantime, you are welcome to review some extracts from the previous video update:

India CNX Nifty 50 Elliott Wave update

by m.tamosauskas| December 17, 2014 | 1 Comment

09 CNX Nifty 50 141217 440x323 India CNX Nifty 50 Elliott Wave update

Engaged in a 4th wave within the larger five wave expanding-impulse sequence, the Nifty 50 is now approaching interim support towards 7897.75+/- that is derived by a fib. 61.8% ‘golden-section’ cut of the entire anticipated 8626.95-7477.85 range. An intra-hourly reversal is required to initiate a temporary rally for (minute) wave b within minor wave iv. prior to continuation lower during the next several weeks ahead. For the time being, ultimate downside towards 7477.85 can be maintained but should the Nifty accelerate below the interim support at 7897.75+/-, it would be indicative of a deeper decline for minor wave iv. – a fib. 50% retracement measures to 7154.10+/-.

Crude Oil Elliott Wave Update

by m.tamosauskas| December 11, 2014 | No Comments

oil141211 440x340 Crude Oil Elliott Wave Update

Crude Oil prices are stretching lower during the last week adding to recent accelerated declines that began from June’s secondary highs. By every measure, prices are now in a state of being oversold with sellers reacting to higher stockpiles and production levels from OPEC remaining unchanged. But within the context of the preceding upswing that began from the Dec.’08 low of 33.20 ending into the May ’11 high of 114.83, this current decline represents the balancing corrective phase, a necessary action that unfolds as the precursor to the next growth period, or literally, the next advance. Downside targets can vary in such conditions of balancing corrections but commonly adhere to price-measurements derived from the Fibonacci summation series. In this case, since first levels at 63.68+/- have just been exceeded slightly, the next support is at 57.58+/-. This is derived by extending the first sequence of the decline that unfolded into the Oct.’11 low at 74.95 by a Fibonacci 61.8% ratio. The second phase of the ‘inflation-pop’ therefore remains on schedule with ultimate upside price targets remaining unchanged towards 183.00-84.47+/-.

Copper and Gold are nearing completion and it might be that synchronised lows will deviate slightly by a couple of months. But this would not have any latent effect of changing the up-coming effect of the ‘inflation-pop’.

‘Inflation-pop’ Update
In our ‘inflation-pop’ series of articles, we have cooperated with the renowned economist Gail Fosler of the GFG LLC advisory company (New York). You can read more about the economic demographics and implications of WaveTrack International’s inflation-pop scenario in her latest posts here:

http://www.gailfosler.com/interview-peter-goodburn

 

Preparing for a year-end video update!

by m.tamosauskas| December 10, 2014 | No Comments

The year-end is knocking on the door and we are preparing our annual video update of medium/long-term Elliott Wave forecasts for institutional clients and EW-Compass subscribers. Publication release is scheduled over the New Year. We can promise a few surprises this year with some new medium/long-term counts introduced that we haven’t shown in the past. As always, the update will include many global stock market indices, currencies, interest rates and probably the most important asset class for 2015, commodities! The main theme under discussion is the approach of upside targets for U.S. stock indices initially forecast over 4-years ago – and its relationship to the upcoming 2nd phase of the ‘inflation-pop’  for commodities – also, how do these asset classes fit together and what trends will dominate during the next few years? In the meantime, you are welcome to review some extracts from the previous video update:

 

Apple Elliott Wave Update

by m.tamosauskas| November 26, 2014 | No Comments

141126 Apple inc 440x340 Apple Elliott Wave Update

In the latest update, Apple was described as advancing into a five wave expanding-impulse pattern in minute degree from the Jan.’14 low of 70.51. There are two most common fib-price-ratio measurements within an impulse advance: a fib. 61.8% extension and a fib. 61.8% correlative ratios. By extending the net advance of minutes wave 1 to 4 (70.51-95.18) by a fib. 61.8% an upside objective was measured to 114.50+/-. This price level has been already exceeded so the natural outcome is to use higher projections by using a fib. 61.8% correlative ratio between the net advance of waves 1 to 3 (70.51-103.74) and wave 5 to 120.84+/-. Yesterday’s high at 119.75 was close enough to this resistance level and the ‘general shape’ of this five wave advance looks mature.

Commodity Prices Can’t Go Up Before They Go Down Even More: An Interview With Peter Goodburn

by m.tamosauskas| November 24, 2014 | No Comments

Logos 440x218 Commodity Prices Can’t Go Up Before They Go Down Even More: An Interview With Peter Goodburn

Dear Elliott Wave enthusiasts,

At specific times in the development of an uptrend, the Elliott Wave analyst will find themselves in a ‘contrarian’ position to the underlying economic fundamentals that have given support at various stages of a bull market. This is also true in a downtrend, a bear market. This point of contrarianism for example, occurs at the termination level of a five wave impulse pattern – the ‘deterministic’ concept of price-predictability is the foundation of the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) that builds from Nature’s Law. And so when a five wave impulse pattern is approaching termination, the EW analyst is forewarned to expect a sudden directional change. This most often ‘leads’ the fundamental news-flow but at other times, it is timed to some significant exogenous event that triggers the directional change. We don’t always know what the specific event will be, except that something, somewhere will suddenly emerge to qualify what we can already see developing, changing from the completion of an Elliott five wave pattern.

Economics is not always seen as a good mix with the concepts of the Elliott Wave Principle because they seem to be opposite philosophies – the EWP is developed around the qualities of non-linear alternation models of growth/decay, progress/regress within a hierarchical seamless development of patterns that are both fractal and geometrical – whereas economists attempt to gain an understanding of the same phenomenon, price trends, through studies of production, distribution and the consumption of good and services. But as we have witnessed during the last several years, especially following the financial-crisis sell-off and the subsequent efforts of Central Banks to stimulate the global economies through relaxed monetary policies, it is imperative the EW analyst pays attention to what is actually happening to the fundamental news flow and understanding how this interacts with the wave patterns that evolve.

Finding your way through the labyrinth of economic data or fundamental opinion is an almost impossible task to differentiate the good from the bad. My philosophy is always this – search for the best and when there is a good flow, go with it. Now I’d like to introduce you to an economist of excellence, Gail Fosler. Gail was the former president of the U.S. Conference Board and was instrumental in developing and distributing Leading Economic Indicators from the U.S. Department of Commerce. The Wall Street Journal twice named Gail as America’s most accurate economic forecaster and she has since established her own economic consultancy, advising governments and business leaders alike.

During the last few years, I’ve had the privilege of discussing a whole array of financial topics with Gail and even though we both come from very different financial philosophies, amazingly we found common ground and mostly because we wanted to listen, learn and develop with an open mind. I’ve written about various topics related to the ‘Inflation-Pop’ over the last few years, and Gail has kindly published through her network of contacts and on her website. And now, we’d like to share some latest insights on this same subject with you. Gail interviewed me recently so that we can update the ‘inflation-pop’ and how this will specifically affect commodity prices during the next few years. The article is clear and concise in Gail’s easy language which is a great credit to her for distilling the complex into something we mere mortals can understand. So take a look at the interview now…click on the links below to read the article and see a few newly update Elliott Wave counts. And while you’re at it, take advantage of reading some of her other material – you won’t regret it.

http://www.gailfosler.com/

http://www.gailfosler.com/interview-peter-goodburn

All the very best,

Peter Goodburn

An Update of Precious Metals & the ‘Inflation-Pop’

by m.tamosauskas| November 17, 2014 | No Comments

01 tutpat Shock Pop Drop 440x241 An Update of Precious Metals & the ‘Inflation Pop’

Even though bearish precious metal forecasts have dominated the investment scene over the last several months, it was very noticeable that social media interest ‘spiked’ when gold recently broke below the 18-month horizontal lows of 1180.00+/- during the late-October sell-off. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) had just announced the expansion of its quantitative easing programme and whilst this may have inflationary implications down the road, was seen in the short-term as a bearish indication for precious metals basis a weakening global economy that needs propping up.

It was therefore no surprise when media headlines followed the break below 1180.00+/- that the latest batch of price downgrades from investment banks were announced. CNBC came through with a report that gold was now heading lower towards $800.00 oz. whilst Bank of America Merrill Lynch announced ‘Buy the US$ Dollar, Sell Gold’ adding ‘…downside targets are…potentially below (1180.00)  to 1087.00 and even 956.00”.

When analysts continue downgrading price levels on a consistent basis over several months, well, that raises a red-warning flag, but when downside forecasts are suddenly lowered by large percentages, especially following a psychological breakdown as gold did below 1180.00+/-, then it signals the approach of a major low. This is of course, a ‘contrarian’ bullish signal – it won’t necessarily time the actual low for precious metals but it does provide a useful indication of pessimistic extremes, and when that is applied to the Elliott Wave count for Precious Metals, it makes a powerful statement of imminent change.

The next stage of WaveTrack International’s ‘Inflation-Pop’ scenario is set to kick-in soon – interestingly, Legal & General Investment Management (LGIM) which manages £463bn in assets recently reported that its economic model has ‘flipped’ form predicting ‘deflation’ to signalling ‘inflation’ in every major region, including the Eurozone – now that’s amazing!

In our latest monthly edition of the institutional Elliott Wave Navigator report, the medium and long-term forecasts for Gold, Silver and Platinum are updated together with updates for the GDX, XAU indices, and several major gold stocks that include Newmont Mining, GoldCorp. etc. and Silver Wheaton. This follows on from our bearish forecasts earlier this year, but the report highlights the approach to specific downside targets for gold, silver and the ETF’s. The consequences are huge as we enter this next stage, and it will also have knock-on effects for the US$ Dollar too.

This latest report is the most detailed written and reported on since our video updates were published earlier this year, and its details not only the current downside targets for Gold, Silver, Platinum and all the indices and equities, but the upside target projections for the next few years. Form this analysis, it is possible to determine what is going to outperform, and underperform during this next and final upsurge of the ‘Inflation-Pop’.

The Elliott Wave Navigator report is only available to our institutional subscribers, but this up-coming event is so important, we want to share it with you too. Just subscribe to the EW-Compass report (1x month = US$32.00, 3x months = $96.00) and get the PRECIOUS METALS report absolutely FREE as part of your subscription. Its monetary value can’t be figured, but to anyone interested in gaining a view of what the precious metals landscape looks like during the next few years, well, that would mean adding a few ‘000’s to a figure.

We hope to see you join us as our EW-Compass membership continues to grow – our community of Elliott Wave enthusiasts has a common goal and a common voice – now’s the time to express it.

(Become an EW-Compass report subscriber and see how these patterns continues to develop and what’s coming up in the larger time-series).

 

Long Term Russell 2000 Forecast

by m.tamosauskas| November 13, 2014 | No Comments

Russell 2000 141113a 440x338 Long Term Russell 2000 Forecast

This is a powerful long-term chart basis fib-price-ratio measurements. Why? Well, it shows a quadruple convergence in a very tight price range between 1525.61-59.13 which usually attracts prices like a magnet. You won’t find many charts like that. Moreover, the advance that began from the October ’98 low of 303.87 is taking a specific Elliott Wave pattern – ending expanding-diagonal (see inset chart). This is composed of five price-swings where each of them must subdivide into smaller single/double zig zag sequences. The last price-swing within diagonal pattern began from the March ’09 low of 342.57. It is unfolding into a single zig zag pattern, labelled a.-b.-c. in minor degree. Minor wave c. so far, is clearly shorter than minor wave a. (in log scale), a fib. 100% equality ratio would be met at 1525.61. Shorter waves ‘C’ within a single zig zag pattern is an outside probability and this suggests that the current bull market that began from the 2009 lows has still enough upside potential during our ‘inflation-pop’ scenario. Interestingly, the price development of the Russell 2000 is very similar to Hang Seng and Singapore Straits Times indices. Those Asian indices are also developing into the same EW pattern from the ’98 lows.

Nikkei 225 is hitting its upside targets right now!

by m.tamosauskas| November 12, 2014 | No Comments

10 Nikkei 141112 440x323 Nikkei 225 is hitting its upside targets right now!

The alternate scenario outlined in the last issue has gained in probability. This is primarily due to the US$/Yen’s development – the currency pair has reached its upside objectives and is poised for an immediate reversal. Moreover, the substructure of the upswing from the mid-October low of 14529.03 can be identified as a five wave expanding-impulse pattern that exhibits idealised fib-price-ratio relationships. Finally, the fib. 38.2% upside-extension of the initial 15942.60-12415.85 decline has been approached. Taken all this evidence, there is high downside risk for the Nikkei 225 – a reversal from current levels would thus reinforce a sustained sell-off during the next months to finalise a larger expanding flat sequence labelled intermediate wave (4).

Thank You!

by m.tamosauskas| October 23, 2014 | 3 Comments

WTI currency fx trading 875 440x330 Thank You!

Here we go!

First of all, we would like to thank you ALL for your participation in our FREE WEEK campaign! Second, we have decided to change slightly the draw roles – two candidates are going out of our draw table because they have been the most active on our social network and definitely deserved the EW-Compass monthly subscription without any draw.

Praveen V. Shamain @praveenshamainand Giambattista Vico @alpine1300s thank you for your unstoppable support!!!

And here it goes, the other lucky EW enthusiasts were randomly chosen from our magic EW bucket icon smile Thank You!

 

3 Facebook winners:

1. Lloyd Ames

2. Shahid Malang

3. Sasikumar Sor S Kumar

 

3 Twitter winners:

1. tulsithakur @tulsithakur51

2. malikmehtab @mehtabmaliklive

3. metin kutlu @kulmer1

 

Please send us a PM with your e-mail address. We will activate the subscription and will send you the account log-in details. Once more, all your activity in social network helps us to spread the news of WaveTrack International to as many people as possible in the Elliott Wave community.

All the best,

WaveTrack International team

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About WTI

WaveTrack International is a financial price forecasting company dedicated to the Elliott Wave principle and work of the R.N. Elliott. Clients include Investment Banks, Pension Funds, Total/Absolute-Return/Hedge Funds, Sovereign Wealth Funds, Corporate and Market-Making/Trading institutions and informed individuals -- & just about anyone who is affected by directional price change.

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