WaveTrack International

Elliott Wave Financial Price Forecasting

Two Reasons why the USD Dollar is in Decline

by WaveTrack International| December 18, 2017 | No Comments

Euro/USD – AUD/USD – Zig Zags Confirm US Dollar Decline

Conventional technical analysis is highlighting a ‘head-and-shoulders’ top formation in the Euro/USD beginning. The left shoulder at last August’s high of 1.1911. Its head at 1.2092 and the right shoulder into November’s high at 1.1961. This would allow a break below the neckline which is slanting left/right. This would result in a downside break below November’s low of 1.1554.

But Elliott Wave analysis is projecting a higher Euro/USD at the moment? Why?

The main reason for this is because recent declines across various USD dollar pairs have unfolded into typical Elliott Wave corrective patterns. To be specific zig zags! This implies additional Euro/USD strength/dollar weakness.

Zig Zags

Case Study 1: Euro/USD – the Euro/USD’s decline from the late-November high of 1.1961 into last week’s low not only unfolded into a typical three wave zig zag pattern, a-b-c subdividing 5-3-5 but it also adhered to fib-price-ratio measurements. For example, extending minute wave a by a fib. 61.8% to 1.1809 projects a terminal low for wave c to 1.1716 (log scale) – the actual low was 1.1717, just 1 pip from this idealised measurement! See fig #1. That’s not a coincidence! This confirms the Euro/US$ is set to resume its uptrend to a new higher-high and not break lower as indicated basis the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern.

EUR/USD - Elliott Wave Forecast by WaveTrack International

EUR/USD – Elliott Wave Forecast by WaveTrack International

The Fibonacci-Price-Ratio Factor

Furthermore, if this same decline was labelled as a bearish 1-2-1 formation, in other words, the preliminary sequences within a developing five wave impulse pattern, then the two declining sequences would be of different degrees of trend which would not hold any relative fib-price-ratio relationship. Because they did hold a relationship, this identifies the three wave sequence as a zig zag. This differentiation process is a WaveTrack proprietary technique we developed many years ago and it has proved successful over the term.

Case Study 2: AUD/USD – the Aussie$ has declined from September’s high of 0.8126 into last week’s low of 0.7501 into another perfectly formed zig zag pattern. Don’t forget that this zig zag began at the exact time the Euro/USD began its correction from 1.2092 but whereas the Euro/USD ended its larger zig zag in early-November, the AUD/US$ only completed last week. But now they’re synchronised! Extending minute wave a to 0.7733 by a fib. 61.8% ratio projects a terminal low for wave c to 0.7500+/-. The actual low traded to 0.7501 – again, just 1 pip deviation! See fig #2.

AUD/USD - Short-term Elliott Wave Forecast confirms USD Decline by WaveTrack International

AUD/USD – Short-term Elliott Wave Forecast confirms US Dollar Decline by WaveTrack International

Conclusion

The ‘pattern-integrity’ or ‘qualitative’ attribute of these two zig zags is corroborated by the ‘quantitative’ element of fib-price-ratio measurements. Both patterns have ended downward corrections which now points towards another period of US$ dollar weakness, lasting the next month or two. Negation can only occur below last week’s lows, and that seems unlikely.

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How to use the RUSSELL 2000 as a lead indicator?

by WaveTrack International| December 11, 2017 | No Comments

Russell 2000 – NOVEMBER’S IMPULSE PATTERN COMPLETED AT 1560.00! – WATCH FOR BEARISH DIVERGENCE DJIA

Many investors believe the Russell 2000 small-cap index leads the price movements of the large-cap indices like the S&P and Dow Jones (DJIA). However, the reality is that its relationship is often inconsistent. Yes, sometimes it does ‘lead’ but on other occasions, it ‘lags’ too. That doesn’t make it a redundant indicator. It just means that bullish/bearish divergences will occasionally alternate depending on the market forces at the time.

As all major U.S. indices approach important upside targets that end 3rd wave sequences within the five wave impulse pattern developing from the Feb.’16 low. That is why it is especially important to watch for bearish divergences between the small-cap Russell 2000 and the S&P and Dow.

August’s Impulse Completed

The Russell 2000’s five wave impulse upswing from last August’s low of 1348.80 (futures) represents the fifth wave within the larger 3rd in progress from the June ’16 Brexit low – see fig #1. As you can see from this chart, this fifth wave, labelled as minuette wave [v]. Note how it subdivides into a smaller impulse sequence, (i)-(ii)-(iii)-(iv)-(v). It has structurally satisfied completion already, into the early-December high of 1561.90.

Russell 2000 - Elliott Wave forecasting by WaveTrack International

Russell 2000 – Elliott Wave forecasting by WaveTrack International

This can be verified using Fib-Price-Ratios – for example, wave (v) unfolds by a commonly recurring fib. 61.8% ratio of waves (i)-(iii) at 1561.90, just 1.3 points from the ‘idealised’ measurement. It has subsequently traded lower to 1506.70, enough to qualify a reversal-signature.

As things stand, the S&P is scheduled to make a bid to a slightly higher-high later this week before it also triggers a ‘reversal-signature’ decline. So it will be interesting to see of some short-term bearish divergence occurs between these two.

Conclusion

Short-term bearish divergence can be misleading but this depends on the Elliott Wave pattern structure. An index could simply be lagging, as the Russell was back in October/November, but now that pattern alignment with the S&P has occurred, any sign of bearish divergence at this juncture becomes much more interesting.

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NASDAQ100! What is the Perfect Timer?

by WaveTrack International| December 4, 2017 | No Comments

ENDING-DIAGONAL FOR NASDAQ100 – PERFECT TIMER!!

The S&P 500, Dow Jones (DJIA) and Russell 2000 are each trading higher from their November retracement lows into ‘expanding-impulse’ patterns. Yet, the outperforming Nasdaq100 indicating an entirely different pattern is now underway, one which might just be the perfect timer in signalling the end to the current uptrend.

The initial upswing from the mid-November low of 6230.75 (futures) has traded to new higher-highs whilst unfolding into a three wave zig zag pattern. To be exact, i.e. a-b-c, subdividing 5-3-5 and ending at 6429.50 – see fig #1. As we know, the trend cannot be terminal as a THREE wave sequence. It must ultimately complete a FIVE wave pattern. There a limited amount of ways in which a three wave sequence to higher-highs can be reconciled with other major indices. Especially, if these indices themselves are unfolding into ‘expanding-impulse’ patterns, and the most probable is where the Nasdaq100 takes the form of ‘diagonal-impulse’.

Nasdaq100 Index - 120 mins chart - Financial Forecasting by WaveTrack International

Nasdaq100 Index – 120 mins chart – Financial Forecasting by WaveTrack International

This diagonal is specifically an ENDING type, it’s the 5th wave within the larger/aggregate uptrend. What does this mean? It indicates that each of the three impulse sequences, waves [1]-[3]-[5] have a tendency to subdivide into zig zag patterns. Explaining why the November advance unfolded into one, it ended the 1st wave within the developing diagonal.

Nasdaq100 and Fib-Price-Ratios

Last Friday’s sharp decline of the Nasdaq100 to 6246.00 ended a 2nd wave correction, itself unfolding into a zig zag. The 3rd wave is normally slightly larger than the 1st wave’s amplitude. This is why we’ve used a fib. 123.6% ratio to project wave [3] towards upside targets at 6493.00+/-.

A 4th wave correction within a ‘contracting’ type diagonal (not in the case of an ‘expanding’-diagonal) will commonly unfold by a fib. 50% ratio which projects towards 6369.00+/-.

A final 5th wave advance commonly unfolds by a Fibonacci 61.8% ratio of the 3rd wave which projects wave [5] towards 6523.00+/-.

Perfect Timer

The diagonal seems the most reasonable solution for pattern reconciliation with the other major indices. Especially, as they too, finalise uptrends from the mid-November lows. But the Nasdaq’s diagonal has another quality that is useful in projecting a terminal high and that is its TIMING effect. An ‘expanding-impulse’ pattern has no constraints over just how much time is consumed in its completion. For example it can compress less time by accelerating higher or alternatively slow-down its trajectory to consume more time. In either situation, it’s difficult to determine which outcome will ultimately unfold. But the diagonal’s shape and dimension are specific enough within its converging boundary lines to offer relative time consumption before completion.

The factor of time is an important element that defines its shape and dimension. The upper and lower boundary lines must be drawn within parameters of the ‘goldilocks’ angles. If the upper boundary is too acute, i.e. above 38 degrees, then the ‘flattening’ of waves [1]-[3] and [5] are lost, where only marginal higher-highs occur at each successive attempt. In this example of the Nasdaq100, the angle is flatter at 29 degrees. In contrast, the lower boundary must be more acute to create the ‘wedge-shaped’ effect of the diagonal. Yet, if it is too oblique and you end up with a parallel with the upper boundary line.

In this example, the lower angle is at 50 degrees and could be a little more. However, less would destroy the ‘contracting’ dimension of the diagonal. In order to ensure the boundary lines form the contracting-diagonal correctly, time must be a factor. By drawing this as an exercise, especially with fib-price-ratio parameters added, it ultimately projects completion with TIMING as a key element. In the case of the Nasdaq100 ending sometime towards year-end, December ’17.

Conclusion

Like human faces, none are exactly alike, each has its slight permutations or variances. And we expect nothing less from this example of the Nasdaq100 too! By applying a general template of angles, timing and fib-price-ratios, we end up with a tangible reference for completing this uptrend.

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1 Common Factor you need to know! EURUSD – USD Index (DXY)

by WaveTrack International| November 27, 2017 | No Comments

EURUSD and US Dollar Index

1 Common Factor = 1 Elliott Wave Pattern

The recent EURUSD revival from the early-November low of 1.1554 seems like it’s resumed the larger uptrend that has been unfolding all year. But a closer look at the pattern structure within its counter-trend zig zag decline from September’s high of 1.2092 tells us otherwise.

The initial five wave decline to 1.1669 seems obvious enough to end wave [a], but what about the next decline from 1.1881 to 1.1554? Has that also subdivided into a satisfactory five wave pattern as wave [c]? See fig #1 (left).

EURUSD and US Dollar Index (DXY) (USDX) - 1 common Factor!

EURUSD and US Dollar Index (DXY) – 360 mins – Financial Forecast by WaveTrack International

At the time of the low at 1.1554, we labelled the decline from 1.1881 as completing only a THREE WAVE SEQUENCE, not a five. Besides, the overall decline was too short to complete wave [c] within September’s zig zag pattern – it’s much shorter than wave [a]. Yes, short ‘c’ waves can sometimes occur, about 15% per cent of the time. Yet, that doesn’t explain why wave [c] only unfolded into a three wave sequence.

Expanding Flats

One viable explanation is that minor wave b. within September’s zig zag decline is unfolding into an EXPANDING FLAT, subdividing 3-3-5. That would explain why the decline between 1.1881 to 1.1554 unfolded into only a THREE WAVE SEQUENCE, not a five! Because it ended minute wave b, the second sequence of the expanding flat.

If correct, then the EURUSD’s upswing from 1.1554 as minute wave c of the expanding flat must be coming towards completion right now, at 1.1963+/-. It must also subdivide into a five wave pattern. That is actually possible! In this case it would commonly end above minute wave a’s origin by a fib. 38.2% extension ratio. This is now right into the current level at 1.1957.

All that is needed is a qualifiable ‘reversal-signature’ to take place over the next trading session. A strong push below the previous high at 1.1861 would be enough. In this case this would be the third wave peak within minute wave c ’s impulse advance.

The equivalent expanding flat pattern for the US$ Dollar index can be seen in fig #1, right. It is just testing completion in today’s low at 92.58+/-.

Failure to respond to these targets would negate this forecast, instead confirming 1.1554 and 95.15 ended September’s zig zags, albeit with deficiencies in both pattern and measurement.

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EuroStoxx50 – Uptrend Intact!

by WaveTrack International| November 23, 2017 | No Comments

EuroStoxx50 – For the Record!

WaveTrack forecasted the EuroStoxx50 Index back in December 2015. Compare the result as per today (23rd November 2017) for yourself. Just one chart for the record.

Yet, this EuroStoxx50 result speaks a 1000 words. Elliott Wave @ its best!

EuroStoxx50 Index - Forecasted 13th December 2015 | Result 23rd November 2017

EuroStoxx50 Index – Forecasted 13th December 2015 | Result 23rd November 2017

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How to determine the next move for the SP500?

by WaveTrack International| November 21, 2017 | No Comments

SP500 and Elliott Wave!

The SP500 has been making hard work of maintaining its uptrend since the last significant correction occurred into last August’s low of 2415.75 (futures). Since then, a five wave impulse pattern has pushed markets up by +7.3% per cent, impressive, but the momentum is now waning.

The impulse pattern began by unfolding into a series of 1-2’s, a step-like sequence of advances and declines of similar amplitude which are simply the fractal subdivisions of the up-coming 3rd wave. After three 1-2 sequences, ‘price-expansion’ occurred from the late-September low of 2485.00 which acts as the 3rd-of-3rd-of-3rd wave sequence within the pattern.

The reason why the S&P is now making hard work of maintaining the same velocity is because, since early-October, it is engaged in a corresponding series of 4-5’s which are approaching upside completion that ends the entire impulse from August’s low.

The Double Diagonal!

If we zoom-in to the final stage of the 4-5-4-5 sequences, we can see something a little unusual – see fig #1. The last two impulse advances as 5th waves can be seen taking the form of an ending/contracting diagonal pattern. The first of the diagonals acts as the fifth wave within the larger 3rd within August’s impulse advance. Note that extending wave 1 to 2580.75 projects the peak of wave 5 in close proximity to the final high of 2594.50.

This was followed by a three wave correction to 2555.50, ending the larger 4th wave within August’s impulse advance.

SP500 Forecast - 60 mins. chart by WaveTrack International

SP500 Forecast – 60 mins. chart by WaveTrack International

The following advance has also the initial hallmarks of unfolding into a diagonal too. The push higher from 2555.50 to 2589.50 has definitively unfolded into a three wave sequence, not a five. Had it been a five, this would have resulted in the advance proceeding as an ‘expanding-impulse’, but as a three wave sequence, this fits the profile of an ending/diagonal, because the impulse sequences, i.e. 1-3-5 are expected to subdivide into zig zags (or multiples, doubles/triples).

The 2589.50 high is labelled as ending the first wave, wave < 1 > within the ending/diagonal, wave < 2 > has since pulled lower to 2567.75. But wave < 3 > is now engaged to the upside – this must also subdivide into a zig zag (as illustrated) or perhaps a double/triple sequence.

The Fibonacci Advantage

Wave < 3 > is commonly slightly larger than wave < 1 >, so we’ve used a subliminal fib. 109.01% ratio that measures its high towards 2605.00+/-. Wave < 4 > then pulls back towards the fib. 50% retracement area at 2586.50+/- which is enough to cause the necessary ‘overlap’ of wave < 1 >. And finally, wave < 5 > to upside targets towards 2609.25+/- where this unfolds by a fib. 61.8% ratio of wave < 3 >.

Observing back-to-back diagonals is something interesting to watch – this doesn’t happen often, and predicting a second is somewhat speculative but definitely worth exploring.

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XETRA DAX STAGES 5 WAVE DECLINE

by WaveTrack International| November 14, 2017 | No Comments

Xetra Dax – Sentiment Turns Bearish

Xetra Dax‘s late-August five wave impulse advance from 11863.00 came to an end exactly this time last week at 13533.00. Concluding the larger 1st wave within minor wave v. five.

A 2nd wave correction has since begun, confirmed by an initial five wave impulse decline unfolding from last week’s high, ending yesterday at 12957.50. Note how the five wave structure is corroborated by Fib-Price-Ratios – i.e.

waves (i)-(iii) x 61.8% = (v) at 12957.50

The low at 12957.50 completes wave [a] of a developing zig zag pattern, perhaps even a larger double zig zag as this 2nd wave correction. For the moment, wave [b] rallies are still engaged to the upside – forecasts measure completion towards either 13204.00+/- or 13247.00+/- where the run higher to 13136.00 labelled wave (a) is extended by either a fib. 328.2% or fib. 61.8% ratio.

Xetra Dax 15 mins. - WaveTrack International - Elliott Wave @ its best! www.wavetrack.com

Xetra Dax 15 mins. – WaveTrack International

Once completed, wave [c] declines can begin targeting 12614.00+/-.

This overall downturn has obviously changed the short-term sentiment from bullish to bearish! And with the Xetra Dax as our near-term guide, can expect a similar downturn to begin for U.S. indices too.

Learn how to take advantage of WaveTrack’s Fibonacci-Price-Ratios!

Watch WaveTrack’s Fib-Price-Ratio videos on youtube to see how these measurements are applied. WaveTrack’s first Elliott Wave Academy video

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SP500 AT 2600.00 – PSYCHOLOGICAL? NO – MATHEMATICAL!!

by WaveTrack International| November 9, 2017 | No Comments

For the last several weeks, sentiment readings for the stock market have been so high that it’s prompted analysts and a good few treasure hunters to signal a major decline is about to begin. But the SP500 has been steadily breaking to new record highs over the last month as sentiment readings go from one extreme to another.

A couple of examples – AAII Investor Sentiment Survey shows bulls at 45.1% where the historical average is 38.5%! Now, bears are at 23.1% but this has declined sharply over the last week by a massive -5.5%. This is indicating the bears have become more neutral/bullish as the stock market continues higher. The latest from Investors Intelligence shows bulls on the NYSE at 64.9% which is slightly off from 65.28%. Yet, historically markets tend to form important peaks when this measure reaches over 60.0% per cent.

The SP500 has been approaching an important psychological level towards 2600.00. The markets love ‘round-numbers’, but is this the real reason for its approach. No, not psychological, more mathematical.

How to apply Mathematics & Fibonacci-Price-Ratios to uncover the next move for the SP500?

An Elliott Wave impulse pattern is approaching it upside termination between 2579.00+/- and 2606.58+/-. This five wave pattern began from the June ’16 Brexit low. The two upside targets are derived from the mathematical application of Fibonacci-Price-Ratios. For example, the 2579.00+/- level is derived from a combination of fib-price-ratios where the golden-section 61.8% cut of the entire impulse from the Feb.’16 low is at 2338.00+/-, then working back a fib. 38.2% adjustment. The 2606.58+/- area is derived where its fifth wave, minuette wave [v] unfolds by a fib. 61.8% ratio of waves [i]-[iii].

When subdividing wave [v] into five smaller waves from the March ’17 low, we see its 5th wave advance begin from August’s low of 2415.75 and within this advance, its concluding 5th wave can be seen unfolding into an ending/contracting-diagonal pattern – see fig #1. The diagonal can be seen unfolding into a typical wedge-shaped pattern, but still composed of five internal waves, <1> – <2> – <3> – <4> – <5>. Note that each impulse wave subdivides into a three wave sequence. For example a zig zag which is a prerequisite for the ‘ending’ type diagonal as opposed to the ‘leading’ type variation. Extending wave <1> by a fib. 38.2% ratio projects the terminal high for wave <5> to 2596.00+/-. The overnight high at 2594.50 approached this important number, then staged ‘price-rejection’. The following decline is enough to validate the diagonal’s completion.

SP500 (Futures) - 60 mins. Elliott Wave Chart by WaveTrack International

SP500 (Futures) – 60 mins. Elliott Wave Chart by WaveTrack International

The diagonal’s completion also ends a total of six degrees of trend, ending the entire impulse pattern that began from the June ’16 Brexit low. This is a larger 3rd wave in the dynamics of the impulse in upside progress from the Feb.’16 low, but it does open the way to a larger 4th wave correction now, which is about -7% or -9% per cent below current levels.

Learn how to take advantage of WaveTrack’s Fibonacci-Price-Ratios!

Watch WaveTrack’s Fib-Price-Ratio videos on youtube to see how these measurements are applied. WaveTrack’s first Elliott Wave Academy video

Ensure you’re tracking our forecasts – subscribe online for the EW-COMPASS REPORT.

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SP500 – Little Elliott Wave Compass Track Record

by WaveTrack International| October 24, 2017 | No Comments

How is it possible to forecast the SP500 so precisely?

SP500 Elliott Wave Forecast - 19th October 2017 - 540 mins. by WaveTrack International

SP500 Forecast – 19th October 2017 – 540 mins. by WaveTrack International

This SP500 forecast (540 min) has been posted on Twitter (see post 19th October 2017). The chart shows impressively how Fibonacci-price ratios when applied correctly can pinpoint nearly the exact price levels. A method which WaveTrack’s founder Peter Goodburn has proven beyond doubt. R.N. Elliott started to recognise the importance of the Golden Ratio expressed as Fibonacci-price ratios but he died prematurely before he could investigate and develop his knowledge. R.N. Elliott himself therefore never provided clear guidelines how to apply the Golden Ratio.

Fibonacci-Price-Ratio Studies

As a result, Peter Goodburn studied the application of Fibonacci-price-ratios for years and compiled a historical database of examples to check the mathematical probability of these ratios.

SP500 Track Record – Forecast April 2017 and Result Now!

SP500 Forecast – 26th April 2017 – Daily - Track Record by WaveTrack International

SP500 Forecast – 26th April 2017 – Daily – Track Record by WaveTrack International

If you have been an EW-Compass client you were able to not just observe the SP500 hitting these exact price targets but taking a good profit too.

Are Fibonacci-Price-Ratio’s working always that precisely? No, there is a clear skill to apply and an absolute vigilance of each Elliott Wave trader to watch if price-ratios are being reached. There is no trade on earth which does not need skill and concentration. However, it is still the most exact forecasting method WaveTrack found in over 30 years of trading experience.

If you are now interested in Fibonacci-Price-Ratios then don’t miss WaveTrack’s free Fib-Price-Ratio tutorials on youtube (see below) – there is more to come.

Learn how to take advantage of WaveTrack’s Fibonacci-Price-Ratios!

Watch WaveTrack’s Fib-Price-Ratio videos on youtube to see how these measurements are applied. WaveTrack’s first Elliott Wave Academy video

Ensure you’re tracking our forecasts – subscribe online for the EW-COMPASS REPORT.

Visit us @ www.wavetrack.com and subsribe to our latest EW-COMPASS report!

Mifid II – About WaveTrack International – DID YOU KNOW?

by WaveTrack International| October 23, 2017 | No Comments

Mifid II - WaveTrack's Insitutional Client Services

Mifid II – Presenting WaveTrack’s advisory licence for Institutional Client Services

Mifid II – About WaveTrack International

Did you know that WAVETRACK INTERNATIONAL is the only independent ELLIOTT WAVE research company in the world that holds an advisory license and is a regulated financial company?

This is all-so-important as new European Mifid II regulations kick-in from January 2018.

Research and Analyst Access

Our advisory license allows us to engage with institutional clients directly. Either, one-to-one or one-to-groups providing analyst access. The advantage is being able to discuss price forecasts that are specific to your portfolio, explaining the logic behind each result, answer your questions and discuss trading strategies.

This type of engagement with research analysts and portfolio fund managers goes on each day among investment banks and their clients. WaveTrack offers this service via our Live Update Forum too! Mainstream Elliott Wave analysis is somewhat limited because it must only be distributed through public media channels. This type of service does not require a regulatory license.

On-Demand Services

However, we are able to build analysis on-demand, in markets that are non-mainstream but important to your institutional portfolio and explain the process behind them!

If you are a portfolio fund manager and haven’t had the same institutional level services translated into Elliott Wave research before, then contact us for a trial. Our existing clients include Investment Banks, Pension Funds, Total/Long Only/Absolute-Return/Hedge Funds, Sovereign Wealth Funds, Corporate and Market-Making/Trading institutions. You’re in good company so join us now!

EW-Forecast Institutional Client Service
Live Update Forum – Direct Analyst Access
On-Demand Services

Furthermore, you can review our reports anytime or apply for a Trial if you are a member of RSRCHX Exchange or ResearchPool.

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About WTI

WaveTrack International is a financial price forecasting company dedicated to the Elliott Wave principle and work of the R.N. Elliott. Clients include Investment Banks, Pension Funds, Total/Absolute-Return/Hedge Funds, Sovereign Wealth Funds, Corporate and Market-Making/Trading institutions and informed individuals -- & just about anyone who is affected by directional price change.

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