WaveTrack International

Elliott Wave Financial Price Forecasting

Critical moment for the S&P 500 index

by m.tamosauskas| August 24, 2015 | 2 Comments

150824 SPX 440x342 Critical moment for the S&P 500 index

Our long-term subscribers may recall our original S&P 500 forecast from 2010-2012. We plotted a developing cycle degree, three price-swing zig zag advance unfolding from the financial-crisis lows of 666.79. Ultimate upside targets were measuring two key levels – 2139.37 and 2144.79. THE MAY ’15 HIGH WAS 2134.72! This measurement is dependent on the advance being a zig zag – such accuracy means we cannot entirely eliminate the possibility that the next stage of the multi-decennial expanding flat pattern is about to begin its next downswing as super-cycle wave C. The next several months will be critical in determining the longer-term picture. Join us and let’s explore the Elliott Wave Universe together!

Gold Stocks – Generational Opportunity!

by m.tamosauskas| August 18, 2015 | No Comments

11 440x368 Gold Stocks   Generational Opportunity!

GOLD STOCKS –
Generational Opportunity!

 

It’s not often that opportunities in financial markets come around that can be measured in ‘generational’ terms, occurring perhaps just a few times in one’s own lifetime. And especially because it’s generally very difficult to identify these opportunities early enough to capture meaningful returns. But such an opportunity is presenting itself for precious metal mining stocks.

During the last several years, from the pre-financial-crisis highs of 2006-2007, many of the major, global precious metal mining stocks have been engaged in multi-year declines that have unfolded into perfectly formed Elliott Wave counter-trend patterns. If these declines were small percentage affairs, then we probably wouldn’t be making much noise about it – but these are huge!


For example, Agnico-Eagle Mines has decline so far by -74.80 per cent! Barrick Gold, the largest gold miner in the world has declined during the same period by -87.88% per cent. There are many more too! To see major companies like these decline by such large percentages, you’d have to go back to the dot.com bust of 2000-2002 or even back to the Great Depression era of 1929-32 for equivalent comparisons. Sure, there are always individual cases where we see companies decline these percentages, but not an entire sector – that itself tells of an important message that something important is going on.


Well, something important is going on. The precious metal mining companies have been the out-of-favour sector for quite some time now, since dual highs formed in 2011. But some perfectly formed Elliott Wave patterns are now indicating of an imminent change that would have far-reaching implications for the next several years.


Our market reports for many of the precious metal mining companies have been the focus of our up-coming ‘
inflation-pop’ theme for some time now, and we’ve updated these mining companies in various reports earlier this year.

But we’d like to announce the very latest Elliott Wave updates are now available for every subscriber to the Elliott Wave Compass report.    

In the report, the latest wave counts are available for:
  • Agnico Gold
  • Barrick Gold
  • AngloGold
  • Newmont Mining
  • RoyalGold
  • Silver Wheaton
  • Platinum
  • Anglo American
  • Lonmin
  • PetroBras
Don’t waste time – this analysis is TIME SENSITIVE! Ensure your Elliott Wave Compass subscription is up-to-date and we’ll send you the Precious Metal Miners report post-haste!
All the very best to you!

Peter Goodburn

Chief Elliott Wave Analyst

WaveTrack International

S&P 500 – Golden Ratio at 2062.00

by WaveTrack International| August 10, 2015 | No Comments

PI Golden WaveTrack 440x314 S&P 500   Golden Ratio at 2062.00

S&P 500 – Golden Ratio

Much debate continues over the S&P’s course and direction with mainstream Elliott Wave analysts and bloggers hedging bets with various ‘alternate counts’ – so many in fact that it becomes a real head-spin!

But there are clues that provide a more realistic probability in favour of continued upside progress. But to see this, you have to leave behind certain U.S.-centric perceptions derived solely from staring at the S&P or Dow Jones futures every day. Instead, scan across the global scene of major indices and select a proxy index that’s unfolding into a reliable Elliott Wave pattern – one that can be easily identified. We’ve been doing this for entire year so far and it’s maintained an overall bullish outlook with Europe’s Eurostoxx 50 leading the way.

S&P 500 Golden-Ratio at 2062.00

sp150810 440x342 S&P 500   Golden Ratio at 2062.00

S&P 500 – 60 mins. chart

But during last week’s sell-off, even the S&P was clarifying the bullish intent for the markets to resume higher – see chart. The late July advance unfolded into a clearly defined five wave expanding-impulse pattern, beginning from 2056.50 and ending at 2109.25. This was followed by a deep counter-trend correction labelled [A]-[B]-[C].

Fibonacci-Price-Ratios (FPR) provide valuable clues in identifying the progress of a pattern, allowing differentiation when deciphering what pattern is unfolding whilst having the ability to eliminate other alternate counts. In this latest example that I’d like to share with you, the most common of FPR’s, the ratio 61.8% or ‘golden-ratio’ phi measurement is used to project the completion of the counter-trend decline.

Extending wave [A] x 61.8% = [C] at 2062.00 – this was the exact low traded last Friday evening.

The following upswing towards the 2080.00+/- level is enough to qualify a ‘reversal-signature’ – so from this action of pattern and ratio, we can surmise that the S&P is preparing to resume its uptrend.

Elliott Wave pattern of the month (US$ / Yen)

by m.tamosauskas| July 29, 2015 | No Comments

This month, we throw a glimpse on the US$/Yen. From the June high of 125.86, we saw a strong sell-off to a low of 122.45. This decline unfolded into three price swings and was therefore labelled as an [a]-[b]-[c] zig zag sequence. The subsequent price action however failed to trade higher and instead remained in a trading range of about 122.50 to 124.50.

yen150710 440x343 Elliott Wave pattern of the month (US$ / Yen)

In July, prices broke lower until they came to a halt at 120.40. For somebody not acquainted with Elliott Wave, this could have looked like the beginning of a much larger decline. But the Elliott Wave Principle, combined with our proprietary fib-price-ratio measurements for each individual pattern, provided a valuable clue.

First, a fib. 61.8% extension of the initial 125.86-122.45 decline exactly pinpointed the 120.40 low. This was the strongest evidence for the conclusion of the entire pattern from 125.86. But what kind of pattern? When we examine the structure, we see a similarity between the initial decline and the sell-off from 123.73 into the final low – both unfolded into 5-3-5 single zig zag sequences. This was the second clue that pointed to the conclusion that the US$/Yen had just completed a double zig zag pattern. This also explained the multi-week trading range that could now be labelled as wave [x] and classified as a running flat sequence.

yen150728 440x343 Elliott Wave pattern of the month (US$ / Yen)

Subsequent price action verified this count as the US$/Yen quickly continued higher and soon broke above the interim high of 123.73 high – a strong bullish signal.

Gold Bullion – Time to be a Contrarian!

by WaveTrack International| July 20, 2015 | No Comments

05 Facebook Contrarian 440x330 Gold Bullion – Time to be a Contrarian!

Gold – Time to be a Contrarian!

The Gold bullion declined over $53 dollars overnight as reports came through that half-an-hour after the Shanghai Gold Exchange opened, a Chinese source sold 5 tonnes of gold causing the sharp mark down of prices to a bullion low at 1081.30. Within minutes of the selling being completed, prices recovered quickly to 1114.80 as the London bullion dealers arrived at their desks to begin trading – there wasn’t much opportunity to buy at the cheaper levels, certainly not if your located in Europe or the U.S.

The sell-off traded smack into our long-awaited downside targets between 1096.00-91.16+/-, overreaching by just $9.8 dollars!

01 gold150720b 440x342 Gold Bullion – Time to be a Contrarian!

Gold – Daily Chart

This latest action has far-reaching implications for the future of precious metals – one-by-one, all of the major commodity markets have been signalling the approach of a major ‘inflexion point’ – subscribe to the latest EW-Compass report and access the Gold/Silver forecasts, and the medium-term outlooks for Precious Metals and key indices like the GDX Gold Miners and XAU Gold/Silver Miners in our TWO-PART VIDEO SERIES.

02 GDX 150718a 440x342 Gold Bullion – Time to be a Contrarian!

GDX – Gold Miners Index

03 XAU Gold Silver Index 150718a 440x342 Gold Bullion – Time to be a Contrarian!

XAU Gold/Silver Index

Don’t miss out – get up-to-date now!

Subscribe to the EW-Compass here…

Falling off the cliff (Lonmin PLC Elliott Wave update)

by m.tamosauskas| July 14, 2015 | No Comments

Over two months ago we have published our Elliott Wave forecast for the Lonmin PLC describing the topping formation in progress (see the link): ‘The Lonmin is expected to stage a final sell-off during the next few months prior to beginning the new bull market. Basis Elliott Wave analysis, the advance that began from the March ’15 low of 105.70 unfolded into a single zig zag pattern, labelled a.-b.-c. in minor degree with a completion into the recent high of 157.50. Note a fib. 61.8%/38.2% ratio within a single zig zag pattern. The recent spike and an immediate reversal to the downside suggest the final sell-off has already begun from the 157.50 high’.

Basis this forecast, a minimum downside target was below the March ’15 low of 105.70 – already a massive minus -33% downside risk. Wondering where it is trading now? Subtract 50% from the May ’15 high of 157.50 and you are here:

150714 Lonmin 440x342 Falling off the cliff (Lonmin PLC Elliott Wave update)

Euro Stoxx 50 – EuroGroup Leaders Agree Greek Deal

by WaveTrack International| July 13, 2015 | No Comments

ElliottWave Greece Debt WaveTrack  440x368 Euro Stoxx 50   EuroGroup Leaders Agree Greek Deal

EuroGroup Leaders Agree Greek Deal

In lengthy emergency discussions that lasted all night, the EuroGroup leaders have finally reached a deal with Greece that ensures a third bail-out will go ahead. European Council president Donald Tusk said ‘Euro summit has unanimously reached agreement. All ready to go for ESM programme for Greece with serious reforms and financial support’. German Chancellor Angel Merkel has just finished a press statement a few minutes ago to confirm the EuroGroup membership is unanimously behind supporting Greek reforms and restructuring.

Stock indices are higher on the open, adding on to last week’s gains.

Last week’s forecasts of the Euro Stoxx 50, Xetra Dax, Greece’s ATG index and Greek 10yr bond yields provided EARLY CLUES that a positive outcome would prevail surrounding the Greek Debt negotiations – especially since the Euro Stoxx 50’s counter-trend pattern that have been in force since mid-April was already completing last Wednesday and signalling a reversal upswing was about to resume the larger, prevailing uptrend. Today’s announcement is therefore no surprise given key indices have already traded higher by more than +7.5% into last Friday’s close – adding this morning’s advances, this figure is now +9% per cent!

01 EuroStox150713 440x342 Euro Stoxx 50   EuroGroup Leaders Agree Greek Deal

Euro Stoxx 50 – 120 mins. by WaveTrack International

What we’ve just experienced is actually quite amazing! – the natural development of price-data results in building a typical Elliott Wave pattern to a conclusion before any news-related effect occurs. This is powerful stuff, but the real work is in our ‘self-belief’, comprehending that such ‘causal’ energies trigger rippled ‘effects’ through the time and price line of growth and decay! But at the very least, it confirms that the news-flow is not the ‘causal’ origin of price-determination and development – something else is secretly at work!

See WaveTrack’s post 4th July 2015 before the referendum! Greece Special!

See our post 10th July 2015 – Euro Stoxx 50 Jump annuls Grexit concerns!

Subscribe to the EW-Compass report – cutting edge Elliott Wave and Fibonacci Ratios!

EuroStoxx 50 Jump Annuls Grexit Concerns!

by WaveTrack International| July 10, 2015 | No Comments

1 440x368 EuroStoxx 50 Jump Annuls Grexit Concerns!

European markets have staged price-rejection into key ‘golden-ratio’ levels during Wednesday’s trading with the EuroStoxx 50 ending its double zig zag pattern from the April highs at 3291.39. Prices are now trading over 7% per cent higher basis today’s jump!

EuroStox150710 440x342 EuroStoxx 50 Jump Annuls Grexit Concerns!

EuroStoxx 50 Index – Reversal-Signature at the ‘Golden Ratio’ level

Extending the first zig zag by a fib. 61.8% ratio projected the completion of the second zig zag to 3282.77 with the actual low coming in at 3291.39! Perfect geometry!

Even before this test occurred, the probability of a reversal-signature was assigned a high rating because of the integrity of the double zig zag pattern (see last Wednesday’s EW-Compass report) – compare this archetypal pattern with the tutorial (top-right of chart). It gave prior insight that whatever the outcome over the Greek debt negotiations, the markets would react favourably – this is in stark contrast to the latest Reuters poll that showed a majority of 55% economists were pessimistic, favouring a Greek exit!

What do you rely on for the sound evaluation of market trends?

WaveTrack’s Elliott Wave Success

GREECE Special | The Greek Debt Crisis – & What You Might Discover…

by WaveTrack International| July 4, 2015 | No Comments

2 GREECE  440x368 GREECE Special | The Greek Debt Crisis   & What You Might Discover...

The Greek Debt Crisis and What You Might Discover!

‘It was never easy to look into the future, but it is possible, and we should not miss our chance’ – Andrei Linde

Peering into the future has its risks – the ancients always said that only our Creator has the ‘Unrestricted Eye’. But through time immemorial, Pharos, Kings and Scholars have sought a glimpse into the future, seeking the help of Alchemists, Philosophers, even the Oracle of Delphi along the way. In a strange, eerie sort of way, using the ‘deterministic’ qualities of the Elliott Wave Principle as our guide, we’re attempting to gain a peek into the financial-future in the same way.

The Greek austerity referendum is taking place this Sunday, and it seems that all hinges on its outcome. The news-media is full of speculation and as always, opinion is not in short supply. So is there really anything reliable out there that can help us gain an idea on how the markets will react following the results of the vote?

In our latest Elliott Wave report, we’ve added analysis of the Greek ATG Stock Index and the Greek GR10yr Yield. What we’ve discovered may surprise you!

Rather than a random sequence of price development, the Greek ATG index can be seen unfolding into a specific Elliott Wave impulse pattern from its March ’14 high of 1379.42. This five price-swing sequence is an archetypal pattern with deterministic qualities – its June ’15 low at 651.78 was no coincidence, adhering to specific geometric measurements. There’s no doubt about the next price moves it must make to adhere to one of the EWP’s basic laws, that of ‘balance’.

And this already gives us an immediate glimpse into how the markets will react next week!

Also, the Greek GR10yr yield corroborates the next steps for the ATG index as recent interest rate rises to 14.785% are again moulding towards an important climax.

The analysis of both these contracts appear in our special production of our latest Elliott Wave Compass report. Follow the links to obtain this latest edition or contact us at services@wavetrack.com for more information. Get the report now.

The power of correlation studies (Elliott Wave analysis)

by WaveTrack International| July 4, 2015 | No Comments

We place a lot of emphasis to comparison studies of correlated asset classes. Each has its own rhythm, vibration frequency and although the exercise is to pair off or group differing ones into positive or negative correlations, the real insights gained are from examining their subtle differences and finding out what their common denominators are in terms of pattern. In other words, discovering what Elliott Wave pattern sequence fits each individual contract whilst it simultaneously conforms to a common denominator of synchronised price development. This provides a unique perspective in the task of price-determination, price-prediction as it helps to eliminate certain possibilities through discrepancies whilst highlighting those with the greatest probabilities of coordination. We tend to use this method on a day-to-day, top-down basis to any Elliott Wave analysis that we publish. Let us visualize one of examples. In Jan.’15 gold broke above 1300.00 US$ dollars and it was suspected to finish it’s larger counter-trend advance near 1310.00+/- US$, measured by extending minute wave a by a fib. 61.8% ratio. The corresponding GDX – Gold Miners Index was also expected to complete its counter-trend single zig zag advance from the Nov.’14 low of 16.45 with upside objectives measured towards 23.25+/- derived by using the same fib-price-ratio methodology. A synchronized response and a reversal signature to the downside on both contracts gave us a clear signal – both are ready to resume their larger declines and they did.

GDX 150130b 440x342 The power of correlation studies (Elliott Wave analysis)

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About WTI

WaveTrack International is a financial price forecasting company dedicated to the Elliott Wave principle and work of the R.N. Elliott. Clients include Investment Banks, Pension Funds, Total/Absolute-Return/Hedge Funds, Sovereign Wealth Funds, Corporate and Market-Making/Trading institutions and informed individuals -- & just about anyone who is affected by directional price change.

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