WaveTrack International

Elliott Wave Financial Price Forecasting

SP500 – Drama, Declines & Opportunity!

by WaveTrack International| February 12, 2018 | 9 Comments

DIARY OF AN ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYST

SP500 – A WEEK OF DRAMA, DECLINES & OPPORTUNITY!

It was a week of drama, declines & opportunity for SP500. But it all began several days before, on Friday 26th January. The SP500 index was testing upside targets of 2861.75+/-, eventually overrunning slightly to 2878.50 (futures) first thing Monday morning. It then spent most of the week working lower. However, importantly unfolding into an intra-hourly five wave impulse pattern to 2813.00 ending a 1st wave in the process. Evidence of a five wave impulse pattern ensured downside continuity once a short-term correction had completed. And that’s exactly what happened by Thursday night when the index ended a 2nd wave correction at 2836.75. From then on, it was all downhill. Friday’s trading saw the SP500 decline in a 3rd wave sequence ending at 2755.00. On Monday, the 3rd wave ended at 2733.00 followed by a 4th correction to 2763.00 by the time the U.S. markets began trading. The 5th wave collapsed into Monday’s session to 2596.00, then extended into Tuesday’s low at 2529.00.

SP500 – Could such huge declines really be predicted?

Well, yes, why not. Perhaps the speed of the declines were not necessarily predicted unless you are familiar with the principle of VELOCITY in financial markets. If you’ve stared and studied such phenomenon in the past, you will begin to see! Understand that when any market runs higher, exponentially, upon exhaustion, it will decline by an equal or often larger velocity. That was certainly the case here.

In Friday’s January 26th Elliott Wave report, the SP500 was forecast building an important high towards the 2861.75+/- area. But then beginning a multi-month correction with minimum downside targets towards 2625.00+/-. This happened to be the fib. 23.6% retracement of minute wave 3’s advance measuring from its origin, the June ’16 Brexit low. Soon enough, the collapse gathered pace as last week’s trading began. Subsequently, resulting in reaching this downside target in short succession! – see Track Record in fig #1.

SP500 - Forecast and Result! Track Record

SP500 – Forecast and Result! Track Record

The Imporance of Correlations

Cross-referencing the decline with various other global indices, a synchronous pattern began to emerge. Monday/Tuesday’s rapid, accelerative declines was actually a 5th wave that was undergoing an ‘extension’, where one of three impulse sequences within a five wave pattern unfolds much larger than the other two. We could ‘proof’ that through fib-price-ratio analysis – for example, a common ratio found in 5th wave extensions is where it unfolds by a fib. 161.8% ratio of the 1st-4th waves – see fig #2. This projected a low for the 5th wave towards 2595.02 (cash index) – the actual low was 2593.07!

SP500 – Forecast and Result! Track Record

SP500 – Forecast and Result! Track Record

When 5th waves ‘extend’ like this, it commonly results in a hefty corrective upswing that follows, once again, the VELOCITY principle at work. During Wednesday’s session a three wave corrective sequence was forecast in our Elliott Wave report ending towards 2717.00+/-, the actual high was at 2727.67!

The ‘Compensation’ Factor

But because the preceding decline was an extended 5th wave plus the fact that the market’s emotions were running high, another principle was enacted – that of ‘COMPENSATION’. It’s function is to allow the market’s behaviours and emotions to ‘catch-up’ with the volatile price movements, and that often translates itself into a correction which unfolds as a ‘complex’ pattern, i.e. a horizontal/expanding flat, or perhaps a triangle. The subsequent trading-range created by such patterns allows the market’s behaviours and emotions to ‘digest’ the recent volatility. Our analysis reflected this too in Wednesday’s forecast for the S&P 500 to unfold the correction into an expanding flat pattern – labelled wave [b]. This required a decline from 2717.00+/- [2727.67] to a slightly lower-low, estimated down towards 2575.00+/-, [actual low was 2532.69] but then a hefty upside recovery that begins its final sequence, targeting upside levels towards 2738.50+/-. You can see how effective this forecast was into late-session Friday. The SP500 (cash) swing dramatically higher ending at 2619.55 – and this advance is by no means finished yet.

SP500 and Futures Contracts

Friday’s Elliott Wave report forecast this same decline, then reversal upswing for the SP500’s futures contract see fig #3. The same five wave impulse pattern ended wave [a] into Tuesday’s low, but the following upswing to 2726.75 ended the entirety of wave [b]. The following decline actually begins the 1st wave within wave [c] declines, and in the morning, this was still incomplete with downside targets towards 2527.00+/-. This downside target was measured from the internal five wave development of this decline, where the fifth wave unfolds by a fib. 61.8% correlative ratio of the first-third waves.

SP500 – Forecast and Result! Track Record

SP500 – Forecast and Result! Track Record

Fast-forward to the evening session of Friday, the SP500 ran lower amidst nervous selling and a lot of bearish headline media reports, but within a few hours of the close, the SP500 hit a low at 2530.25, just a few points from ‘idealised’ target levels, then popped higher to begin wave [c]’s 2nd wave rally.

This coming week is expected to be a very positive week with more upside potential.

These price-forecasts are dedicated to R.N. Elliott’s work and discoveries – Peter Goodburn

PS: All of this has been forecasted in WaveTrack’s EW-COMPASS REPORT

For Stock Indices Traders

Single Video – $48.00* *(additional VAT may be added depending on your country of residence. Currently US, Canada, Asia have no added VAT but most European countries do)PART I – STOCK INDICES (54 charts 2 hours long) (Dec. ’17/Jan. ’18) Table of Contents for the STOCK INDICES VIDEO

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    Elliott Wave – The SLANTING FLAT Pattern – GBP/USD

    by WaveTrack International| February 9, 2018 | No Comments

    R.N. Elliott’s SLANTING FLAT Pattern – GBP/USD

    There’s a variation to the corrective ‘FLAT’ pattern that R.N. Elliott documented which causes some confusion in identification. Fortunately, it’s quite rare though. It’s called a SLANTING FLAT. Like the ‘horizontal’, ‘running’ and ‘expanding’ flat’s it subdivides the same, as a 3-3-5 sequence but with some slight differences.

    In a horizontal flat, waves A-B-C oscillate within almost-exact horizontal/parallel lines – in an expanding flat, wave A establishes an initial trading range, but waves B and C marginally exceed wave A upon completion – and finally, the running flat where waves A and B conform to the same movements as the expanding flat except that wave C falls short of ending towards the completion of wave A – see fig #1.

    Elliott Wave Pattern Highlight The Slanting Flat Pattern

    Elliott Wave Pattern Highlight The Slanting Flat Pattern

    Slanting Flat Pattern

    But the ‘SLANTING FLAT’ is a bit of a hybrid of these other patterns. Wave A establishes the trading range-extremity whilst subdividing into a three wave zig zag (can also unfold into a double/triple zig zag). But when wave B begins to unfold, it doesn’t equal or break above the original level of wave A – rather, it falls short. It does subdivide into a three wave zig zag though (can also unfold into a double/triple zig zag). Here’s the interesting bit – the next sequence as wave C unfolds into a five wave impulse pattern and it exceeds the completion of wave A. Sounds simple enough, but here’s the ‘rub’ – how can this be differentiated between a developing double zig zag pattern, i.e. A-B-C-X-A-B-C, 5-3-5-X-5-3-5? The same subdivisions for the ‘slanting flat’occur up until the sequence A-B-C-X-A…waves B-C are missing.

    There’s only one certain way to differentiate between a completed ‘slanting flat’ and a developing double zig zag and that’s cross-referencing the pattern with other contracts/markets – there’s a good chance the pattern is unfolding differently but is less ambiguous.

    GBP/USD

    For what it’s worth, GBP/USD has just completed a real-time ‘SLANTING FLAT’ pattern – see fig #2.

    STLG vs USD - 40 mins. Elliott Wave Forecast by WaveTrack International

    STLG vs USD – 40 mins. Elliott Wave Forecast by WaveTrack International

    R.N. Elliott’s original template is inserted top-right. Labelled in minuette degree, [a]-[b]-[c], note that wave [a] subdivides into a required zig zag ending at 1.3980 and how wave [b] doesn’t quite make it to wave [a]’s origin of 1.4345 instead ending short at 1.4278 (a retracement of 81.6%). In reality, the 1.4278 high could have ended wave [x] within a developing double zig zag. The following five wave impulse decline to 1.3836 is labelled as ending wave [c] of the slanting flat but could be mistaken for wave [a] within a secondary zig zag. A comparative look at the Euro/US$ confirms the slanting flat because it has synchronously completed a double zig zag at the same time GBP/USD traded to 1.3836.

    Fib-Price-Ratios

    Our proprietary use of fib-price-ratios also comes in useful in verifying the completion of a slanting flat rather than a developing double zig zag pattern. Extending wave [a] by a fib. 38.2% ratio projects a terminal low for wave [c] to 1.3843+/-, the actual low was 1.3836.

    Conclusion

    Yes, it is still possible to conclude the following rally from 1.3836 to 1.4067 in GBP/USD is wave [b] of the secondary zig zag within a double formation but again, analysis must be cross-referenced to other positively-correlated contracts/markets.

    Good luck and best wishes,

    Peter Goodburn
    WaveTrack International

    For Currency Traders

    Single Video – $48.00* *(additional VAT may be added depending on your country of residence. Currently US, Canada, Asia have no added VAT but most European countries do)PART II – CURRENCIES (55 charts 2 hours long) (Dec. ’17/Jan. ’18)

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    3 Reasons to watch out for Copper

    by WaveTrack International| January 30, 2018 | No Comments

    Copper – 2016 impulse uptrend concluding with ending-diagonal pattern!

    It was exactly two-years ago that Copper prices were forging important lows at $4318 tonne. At the very same time the grand ‘RE-SYNCHRONISATION’ lows formed for developed and emerging markets. This major event was identified and documented in our monthly INSTITUTIONAL EW-NAVIGATOR REPORT and subsequent bi-weekly supplemental reports throughout 2016 onwards. It triggered what we termed as the 2nd PHASE of the ‘INFLATION-POP’. In Elliott Wave terminology this is called the next uptrend for primary wave C for major Emerging Markets & Commodities, including Copper.

    Fast-forward to January/February 2018, Copper prices are approaching an interim terminal peak within the medium-term uptrend of Primary wave C which is labelled intermediate wave (1). This is the five wave impulse uptrend that began from the Feb.’16 low.

    Copper – An Ending-Diagonal within Minor Wave v. Five

    The fifth wave of wave (1)’s advance, labelled minor wave v. five began from the May ’17 low of 5463. Adhering to the fractal nature of financial markets, this fifth wave is also subdividing into a smaller five wave pattern. In this case a 1-2-3-4-5 pattern. Interestingly, minute wave 5 is itself unfolding into an ending/contracting-diagonal pattern, a wedge-shaped impulse sequence. Furthermore, this sequence itself is composed of five price-swings which began from last September’s low of 6366 – see fig #1.

    Copper - 360 mins. chart by www.wavetrack.com

    Copper – 360 mins. chart by www.wavetrack.com

    In Elliott Wave methodology, a five wave diagonal pattern only appears at either the beginning or the ending of an existing trend. Clearly, this one is an ending-type given Copper has been trending higher for two years. And so evidence of a diagonal pattern appearing now is a forewarning of an imminent change of direction.

    Fib-Price-Ratios

    However, the diagonal is not quite ready to complete just yet. It seems to require one additional upside attempt above December’s 3rd wave high of 7312. This is labelled as minuette wave [iii] to fulfil a terminal high for the 5th wave, minuette wave [v]. Our proprietary fib-price-ratios applied to fifth waves of a ‘contracting’ type diagonal propose wave [v] will unfold higher by a fib. 61.8% correlative ratio of wave [iii] which projects a final upside test to 7400+/-.

    Conclusion

    Our monthly EW-COMMODITIES OUTLOOK report is about to be published with Copper’s entire five wave impulse sequence shown unfolding from the Feb.’16 low along with cycles and its positive correlation with other Base Metals. It suggests that Copper and other base metals are forming important highs for the entire year, with multi-month corrective declines about to begin. That of course, contrasts to market consensus, but taking a contrarian stance at key junctures is what financial-forecasting is all about!

    3 Reasons to watch out for Copper Prices

    Naturally, should Copper form a high then turn lower as we expect, it will have far-reaching effects in many other asset classes too – 1. U.S. stocks are extremely elevated right now and could do with a bit of a wash-out dell-off to trim the excesses – 2. also, watch for ‘fake-out’ not ‘break-outs’ in precious metals and – 3. long-dated interest rates over the coming month.

    Good luck and best wishes,
    Peter Goodburn
    WaveTrack International

    Take advantage of WaveTrack’s COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2018 including Base Metals, Precious Metals, Energy and a special feature of Base and Precious Metal Miners. Subscribe here to our Elliott Wave Commodities Outlook.

    Commodity Outlook 2018 featuring Copper and more

    WaveTrack’s Commodity Outlook 2018

    Currencies & Fixed Income 2018 Video Series

    by WaveTrack International| January 29, 2018 | No Comments

    Elliott Wave Currencies and Fixed Income 2018 Video Series

    Currencies and Fixed Income 2018 Video Series | PART III/III / Elliott Wave @ its best

    This latest installment of WaveTrack International’s Annual 2018 three part VIDEO SERIES takes an in-depth look at how Elliott Wave patterns and cycles translate across most of the major currencies & interest rates of the world – PART III, CURRENCIES & INTEREST RATES – 2018 & BEYOND.

    Our latest Video/Report analyses over 55 charts and cycles highlighting major trends, reversal levels together with Fibonacci-Price-Ratio projection levels of the major currency pairs/crosses and interest rates of the U.S., Europe and Japan. Don’t hesitate. This is the most thoroughly researched, accurate ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS on the planet. We’ll be taking a look at currency trends over a 50+ year period and projecting these trends into the future. And if you want to see what the US$ Dollar looks like over a period of 350-years and U.S. interest rates over a period of 250+ years, then this latest ANNUAL 2018 ELLIOTT WAVE PRICE-FORECASTS & CYCLE PROJECTIONS will tell you.

  • 2018 US$ DOLLAR BEGINS WEAKER & STRONG REBOUND AFTERWARDS
  • EM CURRENCIES MIXED FORTUNES
  • INTEREST RATE FAKE-OUT NOT BREAK-OUT
  • INFLATION TIPS DIP!
  • US Dollar 2017 Recap

    It was exactly 1-year ago, in January 2017 when the annual forecast wrote: This year’s most anticipated event is the changing trend for the US$ dollar against its G4+ counterparts. Over the last 7.8-year cycle period, the US$ dollar index has traded higher from the pre-financial-crisis lows to current levels but contained within a typical Elliott Wave, THREE price-swing pattern…This 7.8-year cycle upswing is about to complete, into Q1’17 then stage a reversal-signature that resumes the long-term downtrend. The dollar’s decline over the next several years will be massive, fueling a resurgence in commodity values and other assets classes in this 2nd phase of our ‘INFLATION-POP’ scenario.

    It’s easy to forget just how prescient this forecast was because the US$ dollar has since declined so rapidly during the last year. It is now already embedded into our current reality – in other words, we’ve got used to it! But at the time, it was oh-so contrarian with consensus opinion heavily tilted towards a strengthening US$ dollar. Mainly because the Federal Reserve was expected to continue tightening monetary policy and a resurgent U.S. economy triggered by President Trump’s ‘America First’ programme. But all that was blown away during 2017. The US$ dollar index benchmark has since declined by -14.8% per cent – but why? Part of the reason has been a resurgent Euro which is the world’s second most traded currency unit. Yet, we believe the real reason behind the US$ dollar’s decline is the change in its alternating 7.8-year cycle.

    Currencies and 7.8-Year Cycle Downtrend

    Back in 2008, the dollar index formed a low at 70.70. Fast-forward another 7.8-years to late-2017, early 2017, the cycle alternates to form its next major peak. This of course, means the next 7.8-year cycle is now in a downwards direction from the US$ dollar. But what path is it likely to follow during this time period? No trend or even counter-trend trades in a straight-line! This annual report examines that path for the US$ dollar, but also how this relates to the Euro/US$, Stlg/US$, US$/Yen and many more currency pairs and crosses. And to place the 2018 forecasts into context, we’re examining long-term trends to see how they’ve interacted in the past, how they influence the future.

    Furthermore, we also take a look at the net aggregated US$ dollar positioning against 8 currencies which offers a glimpse into sentiment extremes and what the immediate future holds for many of these trends. We expect to see a significant directional change of intermediate degree status into Q1 2018 which will have an effect on all currency pairs and crosses. Specific attention is also drawn to Commodity Currencies like the Aussie and Canadian dollar, together with Yen crosses against other majors. Our attention then turns to Emerging Market currencies, the Asian ADXY basket, but also some directional hints for the Korean Won, Singapore Dollar, Indian rupee, Taiwan Dollar, Thai Baht, Malaysian Ringgit, Indonesian Rupiah and the Philippine Peso. Our analysis will also include the Mexican Peso, US$/Rand, Brazilian Real, the Russian Rouble and China’s Renminbi – oh, I almost forget to mention Bitcoin!

    Interest Rates – U.S. | Europe | Japan

    Interest Rates are a big subject for 2018. Whilst the Federal Reserve has begun to withdraw from monetary stimulus over the last year with rate hikes a normal feature and expectation for 2018, it’s quite a different story with two other major central banks. The European Central Bank is continuing to exert its stimulus programme with continued bond purchases with no signs of withdrawal. Even though it acknowledges the Eurozone economy is in a strong recovery. The Bank of Japan has just reiterated its commitment in maintaining its own economic stimulus agenda whilst its key inflation measures remain benign. This dislocation is an intriguing one but there is some uniformity in the way long-dated interest rates are behaving.

    One aspect worthy of mention is that despite U.S. stock markets reaching new record highs and a strong economic reading across many industrial sectors. Yet, the US10yr yields are relatively low by comparison! This annual 2018 report will offer some insights as to why this is happening whilst planning a definitive route for long-dated yields for this coming year. We’ll make comparisons with the benchmark European DE10yr yield and adding some cycle analysis before finalising with an outlook for the TIPS 10yr Inflation rate and Japanese 10yr yield forecast.

    Only Twice a Year!

    This new 2018 CURRENCY & INTEREST RATES VIDEO is like nothing you’ve seen anywhere else in the world. It’s unique to WaveTrack International, how we foresee trends developing through the lens of Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) and how its forecasts correlate with Cycles and Currencies, Interest Rates from around the world. It is only available twice a year!

    We invite you to take this next part of our financial journey with us – video subscription details are below – just follow the links and we’ll see you soon!

    Most sincerely,

    Peter Goodburn
    Founder and Chief Elliott Wave Analyst
    WaveTrack International

    The contents of this CURRENCIES & INTEREST RATES VIDEO include Elliott Wave analysis for:

    Currencies:
    • US$ index
    • Euro/US$
    • Stlg/US$
    • US$/Yen
    • US$/CHF
    • AUD/US$
    • NZD/US$
    • US$/CAD
    • Euro/Stlg
    • Euro/Yen
    • Asian ADXY
    • US$/IDR
    • US$/MXN
    • US$/ZAR
    • US$/BRL
    • US$/RUR
    • US$/CNY
    • Bitcoin

    Interest Rates:
    • U.S. AAA+ 30-Year Corporate Bond Yields
    • US30yr Yield
    • US10yr Yield
    • US10yr TIPS Break Even Inflation Rate
    • DE10yr Yield
    • JPY10yr Yield

    CONTACT US NOW VIA EMAIL – SELECT YOUR PACKAGE

    Single Video – $48.00* *(additional VAT may be added depending on your country of residence. Currently US, Canada, Asia have no added VAT but most European countries do)PART II – CURRENCIES (55 charts 2 hours long) (Dec. ’17/Jan. ’18)
    Triple Package offer – $96.00* (saving 33%) *(additional VAT may be added depending on your country of residence. Currently US, Canada, Asia have no added VAT but most European countries do)! – PART I – PART II – PART III (Dec. ’17 – Feb. ’18)

  • Each video runs for at least 1 hour 45 minutes and it’s packed with SPECIFIC Elliott Wave price-forecasts (the Stock Index Video is 1 hour 57 mins. long! and cover 57 chart – click here for full table of content).
  • And the latest COMMODITIES video covers 67 charts and is 2 hour 5 mins long. click here to read more about the COMMODITIES video content

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    BOVESPA – How to time the S&P 500 turn!

    by WaveTrack International| January 23, 2018 | No Comments

    U.S. stock indices are stretching ever higher whilst setting quite a few records into the end of 2017. Last year, it gained in each month, something never done before. And as for January 2018, it’s one of the longest runs in history without a -3% per cent correction!

    We’re setting a few records in terms of Elliott Wave analysis and Fibonacci-Price-Ratios too! This is significantly evident in the way the S&P has run higher from last August’s low of 2415.75 (futures). This five wave impulse pattern is labelled as minuette wave [v]. The fifth wave within the larger 3rd uptrend that began from the June ’16 Brexit low. It started subdividing into a series of 1-2’s, three sequences in all prior to undergoing what we term as ‘price-expansion’ which defines the 3rd-of-3rd-of-3rd wave sequence.

    Setting Fib-Price-Ratio Records!

    There’s a high-occurrence statistic associated with impulse patterns that undergo several degrees of subdivision. This is where the 1-2-1-2-1 sequence is extended by a fib. 161.8% ratio in projecting the terminal high for the entire pattern through each degree of trend, i.e. to finish the entirety of minuette wave [v]. Consequently, this projected the exact high traded on December 4th 2017 at 2665.25. But the uptrend didn’t finish there, and this is why it’s setting some fib-price-ratio records too! It’s very rare for an index to extend beyond such measurements. The only occasion we’ve recorded a previous event was in the run-up to ending the great bull market uptrend of the 1990’s! So this current pattern will go into our archives!

    What Next?

    The next series of fib-price-ratio measurements extend the 3rd-of-3rd-of-3rd wave high traded at 2577.25 (Oct. 23rd) by a fib. 161.8% ratio which projects a terminal high at 2861.75+/-. We notice a fib-price-ratio convergence-matrix at the 2860.00+/- area from measuring December’s final impulse wave upswing and the minuette degree impulse from the June ’16 Brexit low, so there is good reason to think the index will complete and stage a reversal-signature at this upside area.

    Bovespa

    In order to verify an upside exhaustion for the S&P 500 like this, it must be corroborated by comparing the progress and pattern development of various complimentary, but different indices. One interesting proxy that might just assist in timing the turn for the S&P is Brazil’s Bovespa.

    Bovespa Brasil - DAILY chart - Financial Forecasting by WaveTrack International

    Bovespa Brasil – DAILY chart – Financial Forecasting by WaveTrack International

    In this chart, you’ll notice a clean five wave impulse pattern unfolding higher from the Feb.’16 low of 37265.00 – see fig #1. There’s no record-setting gains or unique or rare fib-price-ratio’s here – plain and simple! The only complexity is the price-spike low traded in the 4th wave correction in May ’17. If the extremity of this is used, then a final 5th wave can unfold by a fib. 61.8% ratio of the 1st-3rd waves ending at 85668.00+/-. That’s not too far above current levels. And even nearer if the price-spike is filtered to its closing level – extending waves [i]-[iv] by a fib. 61.8% ratio would project a terminal high for wave [v] towards 82817.00+/-.

    Conclusion

    The Bovespa is approaching an important peak with a multi-month correction due to begin afterwards. That would pull prices significantly lower until mid-year. The exact timing of this correction can be used to help pinpoint the next peak for the S&P – and it’s not too far away anymore!

    Don’t forget to subscribe to our bi-weekly reports for updated ELLIOTT WAVE forecasts on these indices and their next price developments!

    Good luck and best wishes,

    Peter Goodburn
    WaveTrack International

    PS: If you want to find out WaveTrack’s long-term trends for global financial STOCK INDICIES dont’t forget to check our latest STOCK INDICES video. Published only twice a year!

    BITCOIN – CORRECTION COMPLETED – UPTREND RESUMES!

    by WaveTrack International| January 18, 2018 | No Comments

    BITCOIN in the media

    Back in September of last year, 2017, we noted in our analysis of Bitcoin that its uptrend would last longer than most believe (13th Sept. 2017 Bitcoin Bubble or no Bubble). And that it would post higher highs for some time to come. More recently, last December, we forecast Bitcoin would undergo a healthy correction from its high of $19891.00 with minimum downside targets towards 8700.00+/-.

    Well, we’ve read some horror stories from investors since. Particularly over the last several days as prices have plummeted lower. Now if you’re reading this and have experienced the effects of this downswing, let me just say this is a market for experienced people. If you haven’t traded actively for several years in volatile conditions, then you probably don’t have the experience to handle this type of huge price-swings associated with public schizophrenia. Our recommendation – seek advice, or stop trading before you lose all your capital. This analysis is the product of 40+ years’ experience in trading such volatile markets. And sometimes, even the pro’s get it wrong. The top pro’s always work with mathematical ‘probabilities’ which are themselves taught by their ‘Masters’. Yes, there’s a hierarchy of knowledge how to trade, not unlike good doctors, great doctors and their ‘masters’ too!

    Correction Completed! – Uptrend Resumes!

    Minimum Fibonacci-downside targets being approached yesterday (Wednesday 17th January ’18) with intra-day trading touching 9231.10 (cash bitcoin), 9185.61 (CME). And, yes, the decline does conform to a completed Elliott Wave double zig zag pattern. This ended minute wave 4 according to our original analysis from the beginning of January. It’s taken less than a month to complete this pattern, a double zig zag, labelled in minuette degree, [a]-[b]-[c]-[x]-[a]-[b]-[c] – see fig #1.

    Bitcoin - CryptoCurrency forecast - 60 mins. by Wavetrack International

    Bitcoin – CryptoCurrency forecast – 60 mins. by Wavetrack International

    What Next?

    The prevailing uptrend can now continue. We can see the obvious sign that this has already begun as prices have unfolded subsequently higher into a five wave impulse pattern up to 11655.00 (cash bitcoin), 11822.79 (CME) in early trading Thursday (18th Jan.’18). This uptrend can either reattempt the December highs, then fall back again so that minute wave 4 continues as a more complex corrective pattern. Or it can surge to higher-highs as minute wave 5 of minor wave iii. three. Either way, a platform of support is now behind us at 9231.10 (cash bitcoin), 9185.61 (CME) and this acts as the stop-loss for any trading strategy.

    If you’d like more information about next upside targets, get in touch with us by leaving comments below. We’d love to gauge your interest!

    Good luck and best wishes,

    Peter Goodburn
    WaveTrack International

    COMMODITIES VIDEO OUTLOOK 2018

    by WaveTrack International| January 15, 2018 | No Comments

    Commodities Video Outlook 2018

    Commodities Video Outlook 2018

    COMMODITIES VIDEO OUTLOOK 2018 – Part II

    Correction for Base Metals – Platinum to Outperform Gold – Energy Bullish into Mid-Year!

    This time last year, in January 2017, Base Metals led by Copper were trading into a sideways pause within uptrends that began from the Jan/Feb.’16 lows. Whilst, Precious Metals were just ending corrective declines that began from the summer 2016 heights but were preparing to resume larger uptrends. And Energy Markets such as Crude Oil were about to begin a sizable correction that eventually ended several months later. These disparate rhythms are not unusual for these different commodity sectors over periods of several months but it does emphasise just how important it was when they all converged into simultaneous lows back in Jan/Feb.’16 – we termed this event as the grand ‘RE-SYNCHRONISATION’ process. It was a time when Developed Markets (DM) and Emerging Markets (EM) & Commodities ended major counter-trend declines at exactly the same period which resulted in triggering the 2nd Phase of the ‘INFLATION-POP’ where asset prices undergo another multi-year price advance, similar to the gains that unfolded immediately after the lows of the financial-crisis.

    The upside progress for each sector has been uneven though, and this is again something visible in the Elliott Wave pattern progression for this coming year, 2018. Intermediate-term peaks and troughs will occur at different times although they each remain within the larger multi-year uptrend of the inflation-pop. Exactly which sector forms peaks first or troughs later depends on various factors, including the path of the US$ dollar as all are still predominantly priced basis the U.S. currency.

    Bullish Uptrends with Short-Term Downside Risk

    This latest Annual 2018 Commodity Outlook remains overwhelmingly bullish for each of the three sectors we analyse over the intermediate/medium-term. However, shorter-term, there are some downside retracement risks that lie just ahead. This may have something to do with a minor US$ dollar rally which would force a counter-trend correction for some key areas as 2018 begins. The US$ dollar isn’t quite yet ready for a sustained recovery as 2018 gets underway – rather, we expect this to begin following a low in May/June ‘18.

    Short Summary of all 3 Commodities Sectors

  • Base Metals have unfolded higher from their synchronous lows of late-2015/early-2016 into five wave impulse patterns which are labelled as 1st waves within much larger uptrends. But these are vulnerable to a hefty 2nd wave retracement that pulls prices lower for several months. We can see the same occurrence in various Emerging Market stock indices, like Brazils’ Bovespa (see Part I Stock Index 2018 Outlook).
  • For Precious Metals, there is some short-term downside risk into Q1 ’18. However, overall, our analysis indicates 2018 will be a very bullish year for Gold, Silver and especially Platinum which is set to undergo a revival. Eventually Platinum will turn around its discount to gold into its historical norm of premium. This report also updates several MINING STOCKS, from the Base and Precious Metals sectors – including BHP-Billiton, Freeport McMoran, Antofagasta, Anglo American, Kazakhmys Copper, Newmont Mining, GoldCorp, Barrick Gold, Agnico Eagle Mines and AngloGold along with several mining indices.
  • Energy indices like the IXC iShares Global Energy and XLE Energy SPDR are updated for the year’s outlook along with the underlying contracts of Crude and Brent Oil. We already know that these two contracts have broken higher. This is in-line with our medium-term bullish forecasts, but one major question that must still be answered! Whether the primary degree zig zag patterns unfolding in the advance from 2016’s lows end later this year, then resume major declines, or whether those declines are corrective leading to new record highs into the end of the decade and beyond? This video report attempts to answer that dilemma along with updates for price highs for 2018.
  • New Commodities 2018 Video – PART II/III

    These are some of the themes we’ll be talking about in our latest video. For 2018, we expect to see some huge price movements across the three major sectors. Although, they aren’t necessarily going to be uniform in their price development. Base Metals are an indicator of the overall global economy. To define its rhythms of growth and decay and this will be key to understanding how this year’s overall path of global expansion is developing. Precious Metals are either on the verge of breaking higher to resume the next stage of the ‘inflation-pop’ or they’ll turn lower for a short while to prolong last year’s correction before resuming uptrends later. The Energy sector including Crude/Brent oil are already surging higher. Here we’ll be taking an in-depth look at both preferential and alternate counts to see just how far these price gains can last.

    This new 2018 COMMODITIES video is like nothing you’ve seen anywhere else in the world. It is unique to WaveTrack International, how we foresee trends developing through the lens of Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) and how its forecasts correlate with Cycles and major contracts of other asset classes from around the world.

    We invite you to take this next part of our financial journey with us. Video subscription details are below – just follow the links and we’ll see you soon!

    Most sincerely,

    Peter Goodburn
    Founder and Chief Elliott Wave Analyst
    WaveTrack International

    Commodities Video Outlook – How to Subscribe

    Contents: 67 charts
    • CRB-Cash index + Cycles
    • Copper + Cycles
    • Aluminium
    • Lead + Cycles
    • Zinc + Cycles
    • Nickel
    • Tin
    • Iron-Ore
    • XME Metals & Mining Index
    • BHP-Billiton
    • Freeport McMoran
    • Antofagasta
    • Anglo American
    • Kazakhmys Copper
    • Gold + Cycles
    • GDX Gold Miners Index
    • Newmont Mining
    • GoldCorp Inc.
    • Barrick Gold
    • Agnico Eagle Mines
    • AngloGold
    • Silver + Cycles
    • XAU Gold/Silver Index
    • Gold/silver Ratio
    • Palladium Correlations
    • Palladium
    • Platinum
    • Crude Oil + Cycles
    • Brent Oil
    • IXC iShares Global Energy Index
    • XLE Energy SPDR Index

    CONTACT US NOW VIA EMAIL – SELECT YOUR PACKAGE

    Single Video – $48.00* *(additional VAT may be added depending on your country of residence. Currently US, Canada, Asia have no added VAT but most European countries do) – PART II – COMMODITIES (Dec. ’17/Jan. ’18)
    Triple Package offer – $96.00* (saving 33%) *(additional VAT may be added depending on your country of residence. Currently US, Canada, Asia have no added VAT but most European countries do)! – PART I – PART II – PART III (Dec. ’17 – Feb. ’18)

  • Each video runs for at least 1 hour 20 minutes and it’s packed with SPECIFIC Elliott Wave price-forecasts (the Stock Index Video is already 1 hour 57 mins. long! and cover 57 chart – click here for full table of content).
  • . And the latest COMMODITIES video covers 67 charts and is 2 hour 5 mins long.

  • BONUS! Each of the 38+ charts illustrated in the VIDEOS will be created into a .pdf document/report and sent to you so that you can always keep these to refer to!
  • PART III will be available in a few weeks’ time (2018!) – we’re working on it!

    PS: Part III for Currencies & Interest Rates will be published towards the end of January/beginning of February 2018.

    Visit us @ www.wavetrack.com

    BITCOIN – CORRECTION ONLY! UPTREND INTACT!

    by WaveTrack International| January 4, 2018 | No Comments

    Back in September of last year, the Bitcoin frenzy was beginning to pick up. For the first time, going mainstream with pundits forecasting a bubble. That was when the price had just hit 4920.00. It subsequently declined to 2991.00 then traded to almost 20000.00 last December, a gain from that low of +560% per cent.

    There was no bubble, so what are those pundits saying now? Well, as you can imagine, silence has fallen. Some big changes have occurred since too. Bitcoin futures is now trading on the CME exchange which allows short-sellers to play the game which means the pro’s have arrived on the scene. Large hedge funds are recording an interest and have begun to trade in these new contracts.

    But what about the expected price moves? Last September’s report [extract here] confronted the bubble calls, explicitly affirming there was no bubble. WaveTrack forecasted the decline as simply a counter-trend correction. That proved correct. The fact that September’s decline unfolded into a typical Elliott Wave double zig zag correction, then traded to new higher-highs validated the ongoing pattern sequence of its price development. That pattern sequence is still continuing to this day.

    Bitcoin – What Next?

    Bitcoin’s decline from December’s high of 19739.85 (CME Bitcoin) 19891.00 (Bitcoin.com) is unfolding into another almost identical double zig zag pattern. Except this one is of larger degree than September’s, labelled in minuette degree, [a]-[b]-[c]-[x]-[a]-[b]-[c] – see fig #1.

    Bitcoin - 60 mins. - Elliott Wave Forecast by WaveTrack International

    Bitcoin – 60 mins. – Elliott Wave Forecast by WaveTrack International

    The first zig zag ended at 10913.57 on December 22nd, 2017. Its corrective rally since taking the form of a contracting/symmetrical triangle pattern as wave [x]. This is composed of five price-swings, three of which have already completed. And a fourth and fifth are now in progress with an estimated completion towards 14655.00+/-.

    We have a trading rule for triangles, which is to always trade the price-extreme of wave ‘C’ because waves ‘D’ and ‘E’ can sometimes fail to emerge. Waiting to trade the completion of wave ‘E’ that never develops can result in missing the strategic trade. If shorting bitcoin is the strategy objective, then this should be done now with stops above wave (a)’s high of 16476.17.

    The secondary zig zag is targeting down to two levels, at 8700.00+/- and 7570.00+/-. The 8700.00+/- area is derived by extending the first zig zag to 10913.57 by a fib. 38.2% ratio, the 7570.00+/- area by a fib. 61.8% ratio – probability leans more towards the attempt to 7570.00+/-. If so, then wave [a] of the secondary zig zag is approximated towards 9725.00+/- which creates a ‘golden-section’ 61.8% cut of the entire decline.

    Bitcoin – Looking Further Ahead

    The short-term triangle pattern is very informative in forecasting the future of Bitcoin’s price development. Because triangles cannot occur within five wave impulse patterns, this would eliminate the concept of December’s decline unfolding into a five wave sequence which would signal a more prolonged downtrend. Rather, it confirms December’s decline is simply another counter-trend sequence within the dominant, prevailing uptrend.

    In this next chart, we depict the Elliott Wave pattern development from the August ’15 low of 192.00 – see fig #2. What this chart tells us is that minute wave 3’s advance which began a little later, from the Feb.’16 low of 360.00 ended into the December ’17 high at 19891.00. Both pattern structure and especially, our proprietary Fib-Price-Ratios confirm this as follows: minute wave 3 subdivides into a five wave impulse labelled in minuette degree, [i]-[ii]-[iii]-[iv]-[v] – extending from 360.00 (origin of wave [i]) to the point that ends ‘price-expansion, i.e. the end of the 3rd-of-3rd-of-3rd wave sequence projects the terminal high for wave [v] into December’s high.

    Bitcoin - Daily - Elliott Wave Forecast by WaveTrack International

    Bitcoin – Daily – Elliott Wave Forecast by WaveTrack International

    A proportional correction of this sequence has since begun, labelled minute wave 4. A fib. 23.6% retracement would pull prices down towards the 7700.00+/- area. This converges with the short-term downside targets towards 7570.00+/- shown earlier.

    Conclusion

    Once Bitcoin tests these two downside convergence levels between 7700.00+/- and 7570.00+/-, we’ll check the pattern structure to ensure synchronous completion. If all goes to plan, a new ‘buy’ signal will be triggered. That would translate into higher-highs in the months ahead – and another phenomenal return on investment!

    Are you trading CryptoCurrencies? Contact us if you would like to see regular updates on Bitcoins? If there is enough interest we are considering to add Bitcoins to our bi-weekly report and/or make it available through WaveTrack’s ‘on-demand‘ service. Leave your comments below or contact us!

    Visit us @ www.wavetrack.com and subsribe to our latest EW-COMPASS report!

    Stock Index Video Outlook 2018

    by WaveTrack International| December 29, 2017 | 9 Comments

    STOCK INDEX VIDEO OUTLOOK 2018

    STOCK INDEX VIDEO OUTLOOK 2018

    Valuations High – But Secular-Bull Uptrend Intact!

    INCLUDES NEW SENTIMENT & ECONOMIC INDICATOR STUDIES

    Stock index uptrends are almost 2-year’s old as measured from their grand ‘RE-SYNCHRONISATION’ lows of Jan/Feb.’16. This re-synchronisation process was forecast as a future event back in December ’14 in WaveTrack International’s 2015 annual forecasts. It hinted that when the 5-year divergent trends of Developed/Emerging Markets/Commodities would realign. This would signal the emergence of the 2nd Phase of the ‘INFLATION-POP’. The inflation-pop was a term we used to describe how several asset classes were undergoing inflationary impulses induced by Central Banks monetary easing policies implemented after the financial-crisis.

    So far, this 2nd phase of price advances has seen the benchmark S&P contract up by +48% per cent, the Eurostoxx 50 +38% per cent, the MSCI Emerging Market index +69% per cent and the CRB-Cash commodity index +24% per cent although it has given some of that back since. But can these gains be sustained for another year, into 2018?

    Valuations High – But Secular-Bull Uptrend Intact!

    Much has been spoken about stock market valuation models during 2017! And how they have unanimously highlighted overvaluations signalling an imminent end to the secular-bull uptrend. This annual EW-Forecast Report takes an in-depth look at Robert Shiller’s CAPE P/E ratio, the Price to Book Ratio of the S&P 500 and its Price/Sales ratio to see if these warnings have merit. We also update various sentiment indicators including the VIX, AAII Bullish Sentiment, the NYSE Advance/Decline ratio, Consumer Sentiment trends, U.S GDP trends and courtesy of Bank of America/Merrill Lynch, the results of its Fund Manager Risk survey.

    What this reveals is a two-fold approach to forecasting the Global/U.S. economy and the related trends/counter-trends of the major indices for 2018

    The first focuses on the medium-to-long-term outlook, how indices are trending over the next couple of years or more

    The second, a projection of the immediate near-term future leading into the first-half of 2018 and afterwards, into year-end.

    Several investment banks are already posting their 2018 forecasts – for example, Morgan Stanley forecasts an S&P upside target for the coming year to 2750.00+/-, Goldman Sachs to 2850.00+/- and JP Morgan to 3000.00+/-. Widening the poll, the average forecast predicts the S&P 500 at 2819.00+/- by the end of 2018 but that’s only an annual gain of 5.4% per cent above current levels. To put this into perspective, the S&P is currently just shy of 2700.00 and it was trading at 2557.45 in mid-November, just 6-weeks ago! That’s a gain of 5.5% per cent – besides, we believe predicting a ‘year-end’ figure is worthless because of what could happen ‘in-between’ – does the S&P surge much higher first, then correct to these projection levels, or perhaps the index collapses lower first, then recoups those losses? These forecasts do not take any of these ‘possibilities’ into account – AND THAT’S VERY IMPORTANT!

    Our price-forecasts are governed by Natural Law as translated through the Elliott Wave Principle. WaveTrack’s analysis is therefore dynamic and non-linear which means forecasting trends and their rhythms during the year, not just into year-end.

    New Stock Index 2018 Video – PART I/III

    For 2018, we expect to see more volatility in the markets. Over the last two years, since markets formed corresponding lows at the grand ‘RE-SYNCHRONISATION’ period of Jan/Feb.’16, it was relatively easy to predict surging price rises. But these gains across varying global markets have accelerated at a different pace, some advancing their wave counts ahead of others in a show of outperformance. This means it will be more challenging to predict the exact timing of retracement declines across the year as not all Elliott Wave patterns are aligned at their current location. So this makes it all-so-important to know the location of each index and its relationship with other global counterparts.

    This new 2018 STOCK INDEX video is like nothing you’ve seen anywhere else in the world – it’s unique to WaveTrack International, how we foresee trends developing through the lens of Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) and how its forecasts correlate with Cycles, Sentiment extremes and Economic data trends.

    We invite you to take this next part of our financial journey with us – video subscription details are below – just follow the links and we’ll see you soon!

    Most sincerely,
    Peter Goodburn
    Founder and Chief Elliott Wave Analyst
    WaveTrack International

    Stock Index Video Content: 54 charts

    • CRB-Cash index
    • S&P 500 + Cycles
    • Dow Jones Industrial Average
    • S&P Price/Book Ratio
    • S&P Price/Sales Ratio
    • S&P CAPE P/E Ratio
    • VIX Volatility Index
    • AAII Bullish Sentiment
    • NYSE Advance-Decline
    • Bank of America/Merrill Lynch FMS Survey
    • Consumer Sentiment
    • US GDP data
    • Nasdaq 100
    • Russell 2000
    • KBW Banking Index
    • XLF Financial
    • Value (SVX) vs Growth (SGX)
    • S&P/DJ-Internet Spread
    • XLK Technology
    • Eurostoxx 50
    • Xetra Dax 30
    • FTSE-100
    • MSCI Emerging Market
    • MSCI BRIC
    • Bovespa
    • Russia RTS
    • Nifty 50
    • MSCI China
    • Shanghai Composite
    • China Enterprises
    • MSCI Hong Kong
    • Hang Seng
    • Taiwan SE Weighted
    • Singapore Straits
    • ASX 200
    • Nikkei 225

    CONTACT US NOW VIA EMAIL – SELECT YOUR PACKAGE

    Single Video – *$48.00 – PART I STOCK INDICES (Dec. ’17)
    Triple Package offer – *$96.00 (saving 33%)! – PART I – PART II – PART III (Dec. ’17 – Feb. ’18)

  • Each video runs for at least 1 hour 20 minutes and it’s packed with SPECIFIC Elliott Wave price-forecasts (the Stock Index Video is already 1 hour 57 mins. long!).
  • *(additional VAT may be added depending on your country – currently US, Canada, Asia have no added VAT but most European countries do)

  • BONUS! Each of the 38+ charts illustrated in the VIDEOS will be created into a .pdf document/report and sent to you so that you can always keep these to refer to!
  • PARTS II & III will be available in a few weeks’ time (2018!) – we’re working on it!

    HOW CAN YOU RECEIVE THE VIDEO FORECAST?

    To receive your VIDEO UPDATE please click here to contact us.
    – Please state if you wish to purchase the SINGLE VIDEO for STOCK INDICES for USD *48.00?
    – Or opt for the TRIPLE PACKAGE for USD *96.00 in total?
    – Next we will send you a PayPal payment request and provide you with the video link & PDF report once confirmed.

    *(additional VAT may be added depending on your country or residence. Currently, the US, Canada, Asia have no added VAT but most European countries do)

    We’re sure you’ll reap the benefits – don’t forget to contact us with any Elliott Wave questions – Peter is always keen to hear you views, queries and comments.

    Most sincerely,

    WaveTrack’s Elliott Wave Team

    Visit us @ www.wavetrack.com

    Merry Christmas and a Joyous New Year 2018!

    by WaveTrack International| December 22, 2017 | No Comments

    Merry Christmas
    &
    Happy New Year 2018!

    ‘Owe no one anything, except to love each other, for the one who loves another has fulfilled the law.’

    Wherever you are, whatever your faith let us remember this one universal law
    unifies all humanity.
    We wish you a peaceful & joyous and holiday season!
    And look forward to meeting you again
    On the other side of Saint Sylvester…

    Peter and EW-Team

    keep looking »

    About WTI

    WaveTrack International is a financial price forecasting company dedicated to the Elliott Wave principle and work of the R.N. Elliott. Clients include Investment Banks, Pension Funds, Total/Absolute-Return/Hedge Funds, Sovereign Wealth Funds, Corporate and Market-Making/Trading institutions and informed individuals -- & just about anyone who is affected by directional price change.

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