by WaveTrack International| January 27, 2015 | No Comments
NEWS ALERT | INTERVIEW by the Gail Fosler Group
In a recent interview with Peter Goodburn by Gail Fosler important questions were raised
Why could there be a major turn in Commodity markets?
What impact this has for the global economy?
Have central banks adopted policies of fostering inflation?
Read more here http://goo.gl/BqpYbk
About the Gail Fosler Group:
Gail D. Fosler is president and economic visionary, The GailFosler Group LLC, a strategic advisory service for global business leaders and public policymakers. The GailFosler Group provides in-depth analysis of economic, financial and public policy issues and creates new concepts and frameworks for business and government leaders to support successful decision making.
Fosler is former president and trustee of The Conference Board, and is a member of The Conference Board’s Global Advisory Council. Fosler served as president of The Conference Board from October 2007 to December 2009. From 1989-2008, she served as chief economist. In 2004, she assumed responsibility as executive vice president for expanding the international presence and operations of The Conference Board. Read more here http://goo.gl/ruXQUD
by m.tamosauskas| January 25, 2015 | No Comments
Syriza wins Greek election and EUR/USD tumbles down in the fastest pace since the July ’08 high of 1.6040. However, a seven-year decline is clearly overlapping and every Elliott Wave enthusiast should notice that it is composed of seven price-swings – a common characteristic of a counter-trend sequence. A fib-price-ratio analysis suggests a real test of this decline will come very soon at 1.1065 price level. This is derived by using a fib. 100% equality ratio between the initial three wave decline (1.6040-1.1876) and the secondary three wave decline that began from the May ’11 high of 1.4944. A reversal signature to the upside from this support level would confirm the completion of a double zig zag pattern, labelled A-B-C-X-A-B-C in primary degree. Stay tuned!
by m.tamosauskas| January 22, 2015 | No Comments
by m.tamosauskas| January 19, 2015 | No Comments
Basis fib-price-ratio analysis, the decline from the Jan.’08 high of 845 to the Aug.’12 low of 47 has unfolded into a single zig zag pattern, labelled (A)-(B)-(C) in intermediate degree. Since the price history for this equity is limited, the following advance may have begun a new bull market with upside targets to record highs or the balancing phase of the preceding decline as wave ‘X’. In both scenarios the mid-term outlook for this equity looks bullish with a high probability of trading above 165 in the months ahead.
by WaveTrack International| January 16, 2015 | No Comments
For the first time in several months, Crude Oil has staged a five wave impulse upswing from a residual low, in this case, from the 44.20 level traded last Tuesday. This confirms a meaningful reversal-signature has occurred with upside continuity assured during the next several trading days to next levels at minimum 56.19+/- or max. 65.18+/-.
This five wave pattern has perfect Elliott Wave pattern integrity complying with archetypal guidelines – it subdivides into a 5-3-5-3-5 sequence, wave [ii] two does not break below the origin of wave [i] one, wave [iii] three is the longest of the impulse waves, and wave [v] concludes above the price-extremity of wave [iii] three. Furthermore, geometric fib-price-ratios corroborate the identification of the five wave pattern where minuette wave [i] one is extended by a fib. 161.8% ratio to project the terminal high for wave [v] to 51.27 – this was an exact attempt that stopped any further upside progress, inducing a corrective sell-off to follow.
The Elliott Wave Principle states that the corrective decline cannot break below the origin of the preceding impulse that began from 44.20 and so there is now an excellent risk-reward set-up given prices have already retraced down to 46.07.
by WaveTrack International| January 15, 2015 | No Comments
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has just announced it is abandoning the Swiss Franc’s peg to the Euro. This was originally planned over 3-years ago in order to shield the Swiss economy from the Sovereign Debt Crisis in Europe.
In early morning trading, the Euro has plunged lower from levels beforehand at 1.2000 to a low at 0.9608 – see chart. The SNB concluded that “enforcing and maintaining the minimum exchange rate for the Swiss franc against the euro is no longer justified”.
The Elliott Wave count describes a long-term triple zig zag decline in downside progress from the October year-1939 highs of 3.499. What you see in this chart is the third and final zig zag sequence beginning from the Oct.’07 high of 1.6828. Cycle wave A ended a five wave impulse decline into the August ’11 low at 1.0068 just prior to the SNB stepping in to begin the weakening of the Swiss Franc. Note the double ‘golden-section’ levels marked with the red phi symbols at the high of intermediate wave (4) and the low of wave (5) – these are standard fib-price-ratio measurements that define the ultimate downside target levels that ended primary wave 5 at 1.0068.
Later, wave B ended counter-trend rallies into the May ’13 high at 1.2650. The gradual decline since has been the precursor to today’s collapse as part of cycle wave C. As we project out for the next few years, ultimate downside targets measure towards 0.7411-0.7329 but this is not expected to be tested until late year-2019.
by m.tamosauskas| January 12, 2015 | 1 Comment
Stock Indices (PART I) – Original S&P upside forecasts published October 2009 and updated in July 2012 forecast levels higher by +87% – those numbers are now being tested! In this video, you will discover:
- how this EW pattern and forecast was constructed
- why the Elliott Wave count was so accurate and
- why current levels have reached a decisive crossroad for 2015 and beyond
The next phase of WaveTrack’s ‘Inflation-Pop’ is set to begin for other asset classes, but in this video, you will discover some amazing price-forecasts for U.S., European and Asian stock markets – how they interact and what price levels we can expect to see during the next year and beyond! This video is a ‘must see’ in terms of Elliott Wave because it will slice through mainstream misconceptions and give you a precise guide for what to expect during the next few years – let our Track Record speak for itself!
Subscribe to the Elliott Wave Compass report and view the video absolutely FREE!
P.S. Part II will be published soon – Commodities & Currencies
by WaveTrack International| January 9, 2015 | No Comments
Following Tuesday’s US$/Yen’s reversal-signature from the corrective low at 11806, the larger uptrend developing from the mid-Dec.’14 low of 11556 continues higher. This next sequence of the advance from 11806 ran into short-term resistance during Thursday’s session at 11997 but the overnight sell-off into early trading Friday is again showing itself unfolding into a classical Elliott Wave corrective pattern, in this case, a double zig zag – see chart.
The double zig zag is labelled (a)-(b)-(c)-(x)-(a)-(b)-(c) and assigned sub-minuette degree according to our proprietary nomenclature, but the important aspect that defines the double zig zag is the initial three price-swings contained in the first zig zag ending at 11938 and then a deep corrective rally as wave (x) that overlaps the initial decline of wave (a). This ensures this pattern as a correction within an established uptrend and not part of a five wave impulse downtrend.
And to confirm the double zig zag pattern, from wave (x)’s high at 11987, another three wave pattern unfolded downwards, ending at 11917. Importantly, fib-price-ratio measurements confirm its completion at 11917 – one of the more common geometric ratios can be used by extending the first (a)-(b)-(c) zig zag to 11938 by a fib. 38.2% ratio – this projects to the exact low at 11917. From this, we can determine that a short-term corrective downswing has ended, with the larger/aggregate uptrend now set to resume.
by WaveTrack International| January 6, 2015 | No Comments
It’s no secret that there remains a positive correlation between the Nikkei stock index and the US$/Yen currency pair – see chart. But what is interesting at this time, especially when Crude Oil has again made headline news following another decline and U.S. stock markets like the S&P has given up a good proportion of its gains from the mid-December lows of 1972.53 is the fact that both the Nikkei and the US$/Yen are suggesting an uptrend is in progress.
Going back to the initial decline from the early-December highs, the Nikkei (futures) unfolded into a archetypal corrective 3-wave zig zag pattern from 18205 that ended into that mid-Dec.’14 low at 16525. This pattern is verified by using a simple fib-price-ratio measurement – extending wave [a] of the zig zag to 17155 by a fib. 61.8% ratio projects the low for wave [c] at 16525 (see inset chart, left). The extent and pattern of thenext upswing is important for two reasons – first, it has adopted a five wave subdivision (that’s bullish) – second, it breaks the interim high (wave [b] above 17680) of the preceding downswing so as to eliminate a more bearish 1-2-1-2 count from the Dec.’14 high (again, bullish). Next, the more recent decline has unfolded into another 3-wave corrective zig zag pattern that began from 18050 – extending wave (a) by a fib. 61.8% ratio projects downside targets for wave (c) to 16829+/-. This would be the idealised area to complete the correction and set the stage for the next advance to higher highs. Naturally, this bullish scenario would be negated below the mid-Dec.’14 low at 16525.
The US$/Yen has unfolded into an almost identical pattern as compared to the Nikkei (see inset chart, right). A 3-wave corrective zig zag decline unfolded from the early-Dec.’14 high of 12185 ending into the mid-Dec.’14 low at 11556. Extending wave a by a fib. 61.8% ratio projects the low for wave c to 11556 – perfectly! A five wave impulse pattern followed, and again trading above the secondary retracement level of 11956 to eliminate a bearish count from the early-Dec.’14 high. The 12083 high ends the 1st wave in an ongoing five wave advance – a 2nd wave retracement has since begun labelled [a]-[b]-[c]. Extending wave [a] by a fib. 38.2% ratio projects wave [c] to 11812+/- (not quite there yet!). This converges with the fib. 50% retracement level to create hardened support. Should levels test this convergence then stage ‘price-rejection’ and then a ‘reversal signature’, then confirmation of a more sustained upswing will be triggered. This bullish outlook will only be negated below the mid-Dec.’14 low at 11556.
We are currently using these contracts as a ‘proxy’ for the other major stock markets, like the S&P to determine if the current decline from the 2093.55 high is also acting out as a 2nd wave corrective decline. If the Nikkei and US$/Yen patterns have anything to say about it, then we should expect to see an end to the current sell-off sometime during this week.
by WaveTrack International| December 23, 2014 | No Comments
We are pleased that you visit us and would like to take the opportunity to thank you for sharing the enthusiasm for Elliott Wave and R.N. Elliott Nature’s Law. Stay tuned in the New Year 2015 – as a lot of fascinating new insights are waiting for you. Warmest wishes to all of you from WaveTrack International’s Elliott Wave Team.keep looking »