by WaveTrack International| July 4, 2015 | No Comments
‘It was never easy to look into the future, but it is possible, and we should not miss our chance’ – Andrei Linde
Peering into the future has its risks – the ancients always said that only our Creator has the ‘Unrestricted Eye’. But through time immemorial, Pharos, Kings and Scholars have sought a glimpse into the future, seeking the help of Alchemists, Philosophers, even the Oracle of Delphi along the way. In a strange, eerie sort of way, using the ‘deterministic’ qualities of the Elliott Wave Principle as our guide, we’re attempting to gain a peek into the financial-future in the same way.
The Greek austerity referendum is taking place this Sunday, and it seems that all hinges on its outcome. The news-media is full of speculation and as always, opinion is not in short supply. So is there really anything reliable out there that can help us gain an idea on how the markets will react following the results of the vote?
In our latest Elliott Wave report, we’ve added analysis of the Greek ATG Stock Index and the Greek GR10yr Yield. What we’ve discovered may surprise you!
Rather than a random sequence of price development, the Greek ATG index can be seen unfolding into a specific Elliott Wave impulse pattern from its March ’14 high of 1379.42. This five price-swing sequence is an archetypal pattern with deterministic qualities – its June ’15 low at 651.78 was no coincidence, adhering to specific geometric measurements. There’s no doubt about the next price moves it must make to adhere to one of the EWP’s basic laws, that of ‘balance’.
And this already gives us an immediate glimpse into how the markets will react next week!
Also, the Greek GR10yr yield corroborates the next steps for the ATG index as recent interest rate rises to 14.785% are again moulding towards an important climax.
The analysis of both these contracts appear in our special production of our latest Elliott Wave Compass report. Follow the links to obtain this latest edition or contact us at email@example.com for more information. Get the report now.
by WaveTrack International| July 4, 2015 | No Comments
We place a lot of emphasis to comparison studies of correlated asset classes. Each has its own rhythm, vibration frequency and although the exercise is to pair off or group differing ones into positive or negative correlations, the real insights gained are from examining their subtle differences and finding out what their common denominators are in terms of pattern. In other words, discovering what Elliott Wave pattern sequence fits each individual contract whilst it simultaneously conforms to a common denominator of synchronised price development. This provides a unique perspective in the task of price-determination, price-prediction as it helps to eliminate certain possibilities through discrepancies whilst highlighting those with the greatest probabilities of coordination. We tend to use this method on a day-to-day, top-down basis to any Elliott Wave analysis that we publish. Let us visualize one of examples. In Jan.’15 gold broke above 1300.00 US$ dollars and it was suspected to finish it’s larger counter-trend advance near 1310.00+/- US$, measured by extending minute wave a by a fib. 61.8% ratio. The corresponding GDX – Gold Miners Index was also expected to complete its counter-trend single zig zag advance from the Nov.’14 low of 16.45 with upside objectives measured towards 23.25+/- derived by using the same fib-price-ratio methodology. A synchronized response and a reversal signature to the downside on both contracts gave us a clear signal – both are ready to resume their larger declines and they did.
by m.tamosauskas| June 30, 2015 | 3 Comments
Dear Elliott Wave Enthusiast!
This is our regular 6-month update of Global Markets and it’s a completely FREE addition to your current subscription of the Elliott Wave Compass report. Peter Goodburn, who heads the team of Elliott Wave analysts here at WaveTrack International is again our host as he leads us through some of the major themes and trends developing in these three important asset classes.
Peter’s in a unique positon to help guide us through the next stages of what is expected to be another major shift in trends, and if nothing else, blow the lid on some market misconceptions! After all, he knows a thing or two about the commodity markets – he was trading in the dealing rooms during the late 1970’s when the Hunt brother’s attempted to corner the world silver market –and at a later date in his career, trading currencies for some of the world’s major central banks – and during the early part of the 2000’s, advising major European T-1 & T-2 banks on directional interest rate movements. These in-depth experiences in different asset classes led Peter to devise cross-relationship analysis of what he describes as ‘market interdependency’ – no asset class is isolated from the tides and rhythms of monetary asset flows – and to gauge how each develops, an examination of positive/negative correlations is an essential element in that assessment process.
This is good reason to bundle these next three areas of finance together – COMMODITIES, CURRENCIES & INTEREST RATES.
And there’s no better way to examine these correlations than allowing them to ‘speak’ to us through the deterministic methodology of the Elliott Wave Principle!
After completing the recording of this latest video, Peter explained, “…even after 30-years of practicing the Elliott Wave Principle, I still find it humbling when patterns jump out at you, to reveal their ‘hidden’ future, of what is to come. I’ve looked at length into many other systems of analysis over this time, from the downright quirky to the more esoteric of methodologies, but none have exhibited the same sublime simplicity and accuracy that the Elliott Wave Principle reveals…”.
This latest video of COMMODITIES, CURRENCIES & INTEREST RATES includes our most comprehensive study of the commodity markets and related equites that we’ve ever published in video format. It’s much longer than we’d originally intended but Peter insisted on making sure you had everything that he thought was critical to the next stage of the up-coming ‘INFLATION-POP’ scenario. The video lasts for 115 minutes, yes, that’s nearly 2-hours! It’s a marathon, but a necessary step in understanding the next major moves for the next few years (don’t worry, you can stop/pause or fast-forward if you like! – just sit back & enjoy!).
To view the video, ensure your Elliott Wave Compass subscription is up-to-date – simply log-in then follow these instructions:
PART I & II. of WaveTrack semi-annual video series can be watched immediately, by logging into the EW-Compass software and clicking on the text-link provided within the SUMMARY window.
All the very best to you,
The Elliott Wave Analysis Team
by m.tamosauskas| June 29, 2015 | 3 CommentsThis month, the German Xetra Dax is in the spotlight. From its mid-March high of 12219.05, it was engaged in an expanding flat sequence. Although this is one of the patterns we encounter very often, it nevertheless is always again fascinating to behold! Comprised of a 3-3-5 structure, the expanding flat is characterised by an expanding bias – this means that each following price swing exceeds the price extreme set by the preceding one.
In the case of the Dax index, the initial decline into the 11619.72 low was labelled (minute) wave a of the sequence. It was followed by wave b rallies that exceeded the point of departure of wave a and traded into ‘uncharted’ territory. Wave c however proved to be the most interesting wave – first, it declined in an impulse-like fashion (c-waves of flats have to unfold into impulsive structures) but then engaged into a more overlapping type of price activity. This was early spotted by our analysts who described wave c as unfolding into an ending expanding-diagonal.
Originally, downside objectives were measured basis the substructure of the diagonal’s 5th wave – downside extension of the Dax however led us to apply a fib. 161.8% extension of wave a of the flat. This is typically the maximum we expect wave c to travel – and indeed, also in this case the Dax reversed close to this downside target (shown by the dotted line) and has since staged a reversal signature that has corroborated additional upside in the weeks ahead, regardless the Greek circus.
by m.tamosauskas| June 27, 2015 | No Comments
A long awaited semi-annual video repot PART II ‘COMMODITIES, CURRENCIES & INTEREST RATES’ is finished! The commodity section has been expanded and our analysis continues to grow from your demand – there are 60 individual charts in this report. The next stage of ‘Inflation-Pop’ is set to begin soon. Some laggard commodities are still attempting to finalise their multi-year, counter-trend declines with sector synchronizing into the July/August period. Composite cycles have already turned higher with an uptrend trajectory for the next several years into the end of the decade. Some outstanding opportunities lies ahead with multiple upside potential. We will upload the video early next week and make it available for our subscribers. Broaden your horizon in financial markets, learn our fib-price-ratio methodology and get ready for some crazy price developments!
by WaveTrack International| June 23, 2015 | No Comments
The advance that began from the mid-May ’15 low of 69.09 is taking the form of a five wave expanding-impulse pattern, labelled [i]-[ii]-[iii]-[iv]-[v] in minuette degree. The ratio might be already completed its advance into the recent high of 74.52, although a higher high is still possible. Despite this however, the pattern development looks very mature and soon we do expect a balancing phase to begin with downside objectives measured towards 71.75-71.15+/-. This means that the gold – silver relationship will change – silver is expected to outperform relative to gold for the next few weeks.
by m.tamosauskas| June 10, 2015 | No Comments
The decline during the last weeks extended to a low of 2072.14 on Tuesday, but there is a high probability for the S&P to begin another round of advances from current levels and Wednesday’s price action so far has confirmed this idea. The reasoning behind it is twofold – first, critical support at 2067.93 has been approached but not broken. This is typical for a 2nd wave (in a contracting diagonal, too) as price action scares out many investors before the larger 3rd wave begins. Second, European benchmark indices like the Eurostoxx 50 and Xetra Dax have traded into their idealised support target areas. This points to a possible conclusion for these indices and therefore reinforces the near-term bullishness for the S&P. Note that the 2067.93 level also serves as an important cut-off point to differentiate between two types of pattern – a break below there would significantly increase the likelihood that minuette wave [b] has not ended yet but is unfolding into an expanding flat sequence.
by m.tamosauskas| June 5, 2015 | 2 Comments
MID-YEAR (2015) ELLIOTT WAVE VIDEO UPDATE of GLOBAL MARKETS
Dear Elliott Wave Enthusiast!
We’ve begun to compile many of the medium/long-term Elliott Wave counts from the institutional EW-Forecast database to create two 70-90 minute videos – PART I is updating trends for global STOCK INDICES, PART II for COMMODITIES, CURRENCIES & INTEREST RATES.
We’re pleased to announce this next installment, PART I, STOCK INDICES is available, NOW!
Global Stock markets have entered the ‘Twilight Zone’! Remember the TV series of the early 1960’s & ‘80’s? The twilight zone is an anthology series depicting strange, weird fantasy themes of science fiction but always with an unexpected twist at the end. Its purpose was to take you to an ‘in-between’ place of existence, a place where natural laws are held in suspension, to illustrate what is perhaps possible before time rolls ever forward.
Well, such a time exists right now – GLOBAL STOCK MARKETS have entered the TWILIGHT ZONE where it is shown what has existed, what is existing and the different possibilities it has for the FUTURE! Intuitively, we all feel like that at least once in our lives, entering a point of decision-making that sets the course for the next phase of our lives – well, stock markets will also have to make that same decision – and NOW!
There’s no shortage of opinion on analyst forecasts – many secular-bears (mainstream Elliott Wave included) hold to the idea that a major SECULAR-BEAR downtrend is about to begin whilst the flip-side of this is really coming from major institutional analysts, the perennial-bulls maintaining the SECULAR-BULL uptrend theme. But the big question is this – how to differentiate these views into a realistic approach for us to trust in?
The first and foremost thing is to remove pre-conception from any analysis – take away those obstacles that prevent us from seeing clearly – try to remain objective – that’s a good beginning, but not enough to gain a glimpse into the future. But in our latest video series, we’ll be using WaveTrack International’s unique proprietary methods of geometric Fibonacci-Price-Ratio matrices to cut through the illusionary aspects of Elliott Wave and allow it to show its true course and direction.
After all, that’s exactly what we did over 6-years ago! – original S&P upside forecasts published October 2009 and updated in July 2012 forecast levels higher by +87% – those numbers are now being tested!
In this latest 6-month video update of GLOBAL STOCK INDICES, you’ll discover:
- how the original forecasts were constructed and what they mean for today’s levels
- why the current period forms a ‘Price & Time’ continuum – the ‘TWILIGHT ZONE’
- how to differentiate between a SECULAR-BEAR and a SECULAR-BULL
P.S. PART II – Commodities, Currencies & Interest Rates will be published next month! (we’re working on it!)
by m.tamosauskas| June 2, 2015 | No Comments
Back in October ’14 we advocated that Aussie$ / New Zealand$ is about to begin the final sell-off within a larger decline that began from the March ’11 high of 1.3800. This downswing was expected to unfold into a five wave expanding-impulse pattern, labelled 1-2-3-4-5 in primary degree with ultimate downside objectives measured towards 1.0247-0162:
The downside targets were measured by using a fib. 61.8% correlation ratio between the net decline of waves 1 to 3 and wave 5. This is our common Elliott Wave fib-price-ratio for expanding-impulse patterns. Without it, it would be difficult to measure such an accurate support level, which after some months, turns out to be the exact outcome:
Prices responded precisely with a recorded low at 1.0020 in April ’15 and the following price rejection to the upside suggests a multi-year decline has completed into this low!
by m.tamosauskas| May 22, 2015 | No Comments
This month, we monitored a rare pattern that was described by R. N. Elliott himself in 1946. It is a variation of the standard flat sequence that is characterised by a 3-3-5 subdivision of its three price swings. The important difference to a ‘standard’ horizontal flat is that the ‘b’ wave of the pattern falls short of the beginning of the ‘a’ wave but the ‘c’ wave exceeds the beginning of wave ‘b’. This produces a ‘slanting’ appearance.
We spotted this pattern in the US$ index as it declined from its March high of 100.39 into a low of 96.17 in a three wave manner. This was followed by a three price swing advance to 99.99. For an Elliott Wave practitioner, this would have implied a double zig zag decline from 100.39 but the accelerative decline from 99.99 clearly showed the characteristics of a five wave impulse sequence. Therefore, the ‘slanting flat’ was adopted in our 6th of May issue that showed an idealised completion level to 93.65 based off a fib. 61.8% extension of the initial three price-swing decline to 96.17.
During the last several trading days, this target was approached and the US$ began a multi-day reversal. Although it dipped slightly lower, this was still in line with the larger outlook – the entire downswing from 100.39 pinpointed the area of ‘4th preceding’ at 9325+/-, an important retracement level for impulse waves. Now, the US$ index has verified the reversal and is poised for continued upside in the weeks ahead.keep looking »