by m.tamosauskas| May 22, 2015 | No Comments
This month, we monitored a rare pattern that was described by R. N. Elliott himself in 1946. It is a variation of the standard flat sequence that is characterised by a 3-3-5 subdivision of its three price swings. The important difference to a ‘standard’ horizontal flat is that the ‘b’ wave of the pattern falls short of the beginning of the ‘a’ wave but the ‘c’ wave exceeds the beginning of wave ‘b’. This produces a ‘slanting’ appearance.
We spotted this pattern in the US$ index as it declined from its March high of 100.39 into a low of 96.17 in a three wave manner. This was followed by a three price swing advance to 99.99. For an Elliott Wave practitioner, this would have implied a double zig zag decline from 100.39 but the accelerative decline from 99.99 clearly showed the characteristics of a five wave impulse sequence. Therefore, the ‘slanting flat’ was adopted in our 6th of May issue that showed an idealised completion level to 93.65 based off a fib. 61.8% extension of the initial three price-swing decline to 96.17.
During the last several trading days, this target was approached and the US$ began a multi-day reversal. Although it dipped slightly lower, this was still in line with the larger outlook – the entire downswing from 100.39 pinpointed the area of ‘4th preceding’ at 9325+/-, an important retracement level for impulse waves. Now, the US$ index has verified the reversal and is poised for continued upside in the weeks ahead.
by m.tamosauskas| May 14, 2015 | No Comments
Last year we were asking “Would you buy it here?”: http://blog.wavetrack.com/toyota-motor-corp-elliott-wave-analysis/. Soon enough, Toyota Motor Corp. staged an upside reversal signature and the following advance unfolded into a five wave expanding-impulse pattern with completion into the Oct.’14 high of 6559. Remember the triple fib-price-ratio resistance level near 6550? This was almost the exact level there prices stopped advancing and began the 2nd wave balancing process:
The second wave ended near the fib. 61.8% retracement level setting up the stage for an accelerative wave 3 to begin. The gapping-up price development confirmed this forecast. Today the entire five wave sequence in minor degree is shown has completed into the recent high of 8783:
Again, it was easy to forecast basis two converging fib-price-ratio measurements that provided a strong resistance. Now we asking another question: “Would you sell it here?”. Our Elliott Wave analysis suggests the risk is huge for a larger decline beginning very soon.
by m.tamosauskas| May 10, 2015 | No Comments
Lonmin, the third-largest platinum miner by output, is struggling with its business since precious metals remain in their bear markets. Platinum is at its lowest price in almost six years. Investments cuts, workface layoffs and strikes become a new normal in this sector. However, one should keep in mind that precious metals are in their final bear-market phase and looking further ahead, our ‘inflation-pop’ scenario should dramatically change the situation in a mining sector. The Lonmin is expected to stage a final sell-off during the next few months prior to beginning the new bull market. Basis Elliott Wave analysis, the advance that began from the March ’15 low of 105.70 unfolded into a single zig zag pattern, labelled a.-b.-c. in minor degree with a completion into the recent high of 157.50. Note a fib. 61.8%/38.2% ratio within a single zig zag pattern. The recent spike and an immediate reversal to the downside suggest the final sell-off has already begun from the 157.50 high:
by WaveTrack International| May 4, 2015 | No Comments
Have you wondered what direction the S&P is unfolding into lately? Since the late-March low formed at 2045.50, the index has traded to new record highs but it’s not been a straightforward advance – quite the contrary in fact! ‘Volatility’ seems to be a more accurate description of its upward progress as each advance is followed by vicious pullbacks – these are so sharp and deep that you wonder whether a new downtrend is about to kick-in?
If you’ve been trading the short side of the market during this time, you’ve most likely jumped in and out several times to the point of exhaustion, exasperation%#! But wait!…in these seemingly chaotic price moves lies perfect geometric symmetry. Using a combination of Elliott Wave pattern identification and Fibonacci-Price-Ratio matrices we’ve unravelled the intricacies of each wave sequence since the advance began and moulded them into a clear and concise forecast of ongoing price development! No more guessing – this forecast is a ‘must-see’.
It’s a ‘must-see’ because it probably comes at one of the most important junctures in financial history. Witnessing this next sequence of the stock market is akin to ‘being there’ when it happened, and you’ll be telling the story to your friends for a long time to come.
These recent movements of the S&P are not only completing the final Elliott Wave patterns from the March lows, not even the five wave impulse sequences from the Oct.’14 lows, but larger, three wave patterns from the March ’09 lows. That makes it special.
If you want to see how each of these ‘three’ time-series are threaded together, then log-in immediately to your EW-Compass subscription and view our latest ‘Week Ahead’ video. In there, you’ll be able to watch Peter Goodburn’s latest take of the S&P’s recent activity, how it is likely to progress over the next two/three week period and how it integrates into the larger patterns forming from the Oct.’14 and March ’09 lows.
A major turning point is coming up and you really must be prepared. The three time-series of the S&P are supplemented with an updated look at last year’s 91 month (7.58 year) cycle – also, there are updates and commentary for the Dow Jones (DJIA), Nasdaq 100, Eurostoxx 50, Xetra Dax, Shanghai Composite, Nifty 50, Nikkei, ASX 200, US$ index, Euro/US$, Stlg/US$, US$/Yen, US10yr yield, De10yr yield, Gold, Silver, Crude oil and Brent oil.
Make sure your subscription is up-to-date – or click here to renew!
All the very best,
WaveTrack’s Elliott Wave Team
P.S. the video streams for 25-minutes – enjoy!
by m.tamosauskas| April 28, 2015 | No Comments
Two months ago we published Petroleo Brasileiro forecast calling for a major bottom to develop during the next few weeks. Two downside targets were measured basis our fib-price-ratio analysis and as it stands out the bottom was found near the lower range of it with a recorded low at 4.90. The following rejection to the upside and an immediate price-doubling are suggesting the completion of a 7-year counter-trend decline into this low. Step by step the ‘inflation-pop’ scenario is starting its course and commodity related assets, just like Petroleo Brasileiro, are expected to benefit the most:
Short-term, the advance that began from the 4.90 low is taking a form of a five wave pattern, labelled as intermediate wave (1). A test towards 12.88+/- is expected during the next several weeks prior to beginning the balancing phase of the preceding advance (4.90-12.88+/-):
Keep in touch, we have much more to show! Or better – subscribe to the EW-Compass report to see how the ‘inflation-pop’ scenario is expected to develop in other asset classes.
by m.tamosauskas| April 22, 2015 | No Comments
In the last weeks, we witnessed a spectacular bottoming formation on the AUD/US$. The currency pair staged a nice expanding flat before pinpointing its long-term downside objective that was measured by our fib-price-ratio measurements. The following strong price rejection once again has proved the validity of these measurements. There is now a high probability that the AUD/US$ could have completed a multi-year decline:
by WaveTrack International| April 13, 2015 | No Comments
ANNOUNCEMENT | NEW IRP JOURNAL |
To all our Subscribers, Club/Registrant members and Twitter/Facebook followers, we are pleased to announce WaveTrack International’s latest article published in the inaugural edition of the Independent Research Provider’s magazine. Issue 1/Volume 1 for April 2015 is hot off the press and you can read our article and others right now with this FREE complimentary download – just click on the link below:
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by m.tamosauskas| April 4, 2015 | No Comments
Back in 2013, Alcoa was recognised as completing its counter-trend decline from the Jan.’10 high of 17.60 into the July ’13 low of 7.63 whilst unfolding into an expanding flat pattern. This represents wave ‘X’ within a larger double zig zag advance that began from the March ’09 low of 4.97: http://goo.gl/gEgF15 .
A reversal signature to the upside confirmed this forecast and prices doubled in a little bit more than a year:
It has slightly exceeded our ideal interim upside targets with a recorded high at 17.75 in Nov.’14 but since then has gradually underperformed its benchmark S&P 500 index and currently trades -25% down from the 17.75 high – a fib. 38.2% retracement level of the preceding advance. A closer look reveals a three wave sequence has unfolded with 61.8%/38.2% correlation ratio within this decline:
The minimum requirement has been achieved and we do believe Alcoa might be in its early stages of final advance towards new recovery highs. Ultimate upside targets are updated to 27.02-28.53-29.43 basis various fib-price-ratio measurements (see fig #1). Another price doubling during the next few years? Our Elliott Wave analysis suggests it’s the most probable outcome!
by m.tamosauskas| March 27, 2015 | No Comments
Dear Elliott Wave Enthusiast!
It’s three months on from the last Special Update Alert! published in January when some of the mining stocks began to break key resistance levels that confirmed a major reversal-signature had taken place. Since that time, underlying precious metals, gold and silver stalled into late-January peaks, subsequently working lower again although it was noticeable that the mining stocks were outperforming during the same period. In the case of Newmont Mining, one of our archetype stocks that is being tracked in this current phase, continued higher for several weeks even when gold and silver were already staging another sequence of declines. This type of bullish divergence is commonplace when a major low is being approached.
This creates a special trading opportunity in the precious metals sector and WaveTrack’s Precious Metals & Mining Stocks report will prepare you for some big price moves!
Find out WHY:
- Platinum’s perfect fib-price-ratios will have huge implications in the next bull market for precious metals.
- Gold is still heading down to lower lows but is soon approaching final downside target levels.
- GDX and XAU are developing identical expanding flat patterns that began in 2007/08 are also hitting major lows.
This Special Report on Precious Metals & Mining Stocks is a part of our Institutional client service with a value of USD 240.00 but we’d like to share this information with you as it is a unique and important trading/investment opportunity.
Simply subscribe to the EW-Compass report and download the report under the ‘SPECIALS TAB’ within the online version of the EW-Compass ‘main-view’ area.
by m.tamosauskas| February 14, 2015 | No Comments
AngloGold Ashanti is already up +65% from its December ’15 low of 7.45 – one of the best performing gold mining stocks we are monitoring. The advance from this low has clearly unfolded into a five wave expanding-impulse pattern, labelled i.-ii.-iii.-iv.-v. in minor degree. Moreover, our fib-price-ratio analysis confirms this view: extending the net advance of waves i. to iii. (7.45-10.61) by a fib. 61.8% ratio, the ideal measured high for minor wave v. was at 13.08 whilst the actual high was recorded at 13.12. All of this is suggesting the directional change to the upside. Shorter-term, the counter-trend decline from the 13.12 high is currently in progress with minimum downside objectives measured towards 10.57+/- – a fib. 38.2% retracement level of the preceding advance. Once tested, a reversal signature to the upside would confirm the resumption of the larger advance. The next surge higher is expected to be larger than the initial advance (7.45-13.12), so stay tuned, the ‘inflation-pop’ scenario is on the corner!keep looking »