Elliott Wave Commodities Update

by WaveTrack International| November 29, 2022 | No Comments

Main Drivers for Commodities are Inflation, Interest Rates and US$ Dollar – Inflation Peak, Rising Interest Rates, Peak US$ Dollar Major Headwinds – Base Metals Completing July’s Counter-Trend Rallies, Heading Lower Now – Precious Metals Bottoming with Short-Term Downside Risk – Energy forming Interim Lows, Heading Higher into Year-End

Commodities Prices – 3 Main Drivers

The main drivers for commodities prices are inflation, interest rates and the US$ dollar.

Central Banks have maintained their aggressive pace of interest rate hikes with one or two exceptions. The Reserve Bank of Australia pulled back on its 50bps basis point incremental increased from June to September with only 25bps basis points in the last two meetings. The Reserve Bank of Canada hiked rates by 100bps basis points last July but has since pulled back to 50bps increases in October. The U.S. Federal Reserve have maintained their 75bps basis point increases since June but is hinting it may slow down to 50bps in the next December meeting. Inflation pressures have eased off a little in the U.S.. This is giving rise to peak inflation expectations. However, the big question related to commodity prices is whether this year’s hikes have already dented the world’s economic growth prospects? See fig #1.

CPI/Eurozone Inflation

In Bank of America’s latest Global Fund Manager Survey, a massive 92% per cent of fund managers predict stagflation in 2023 – see fig #2 . That means persistent inflationary pressures but at the same time economic stagnation. Central Banks are set to keep hiking during the first quarter of next year in an attempt to bring inflation down. Even if this means sacrificing the global economies. And this combined with more COVID lockdowns in China is creating strong headwinds for commodities into year-end though Q1 2023.

Commodities and Energy

We can see the effect in Base Metals like Copper – see fig #3. Prices have declined a lot over the past year. Precisely, down -35% per cent into July’s low although a recovery since means it’s down now by -20% per cent. However, that’s still massive, and it hasn’t finished yet. July’s recovery has unfolded into an Elliott Wave corrective zig zag pattern ending into the mid-November high. It’s now preparing for another big downswing which is forecast ending sometime into the end of Q1 2023, or beginning of Q2. That’s confirming what most fund managers expect – stagflation.

Commodities and Energy

The energy markets are also showing big declines for Crude and Brent oil next year. Although there’s the prospect of good gains before the next declines begin. We’ll be taking a look at these contracts later.

If there’s good news on the horizon, it has to be in Precious Metals. Last month’s report identified a major low in Gold, Silver, Platinum and the Gold Miners. This is still the case. However, there are some downside risks before year-end. This is dependent on whether the US$ dollar undergoes one last push to a modest higher-high, or if September’s high has already peaked – see fig’s #4-5.

Either way, the Gold Minders have been confirmed putting in a major low and are already trending into a new multi-year uptrend – See GDX Gold Miners index fig #6.

WaveTrack’s EW-Commodities Report has been released. Get more insights about trading opportunities in our latest EW-Commodities Outlook report and video update!

FANG+ Rallying Higher from October Low

by WaveTrack International| November 16, 2022 | No Comments

FANG+ Rallying Higher from October Low as Expanding Flat Pattern – Completion Due Year-End but then Declining together with Global Indices as Final Sequence of 2022-2023 Counter-Trend Decline – Downside Targets Considerably Lower

FANG+ Rallying Higher

This month’s report updates several technology stocks which themselves are components of the FANG+ index. We’ve selected 6 FROM 10 components that best illustrate the varying divergences of trend. The analysis begins with a take on the pattern developing in the benchmark FANG+ index. And, then moving on to the equities – Amazon Inc., Apple Inc., Facebook/Meta Inc., Microsoft Corp., Netflix Inc. and finally NVIDIA Corp. See fig #1.

FANG+ Analysis from an Elliott Wave Persepective

From an Elliott Wave pattern perspective, we can order these equities into two groups. Those stocks that have already formed a major low and the second group which are set to continue this year’s declines into Q1 2023.

The Fang+ index has lost Twitter since Elon Musk’s takeover with Microsoft taking its place. The weighting is the same 10% for each equity, 10 in all equating to 100% per cent.

The Fang+ index is unfolding similarly to the Nasdaq 100 with some slight variation. Both are declining into a multi-year corrections that began from the Nov.’21 highs. These are developing into double zig zags, i.e. a-b-c-x-a-b-c – see fig #2. We already had a pretty good idea in December ’21. Note, this is almost a year ago, that 2022 would see a severe downward correction in the technology sector because the post-pandemic advance into the Nov.’21 peaks unfolded into an a-b-c zig zags. Implying this was ending the 1st wave of an ending-type diagonal with the necessity of a deep 2nd wave correction to augment the ongoing pattern development of the diagonal. These zig zags were especially evident in the Nasdaq 100 and the XLK Technology indices.

And so, the FANG+’s corrective decline from the Nov.’21 high of 8077.01 completed the 1st wave of the diagonal with a double zig zag downswing declining since as a deep 2nd wave. That double zig zag remains incomplete. As a result, it forewarns of another big sell-off next year. However, during Q1 2023 but not before finishing the current counter-trend rally that began in October and due to finish in December, year-end.

FANG+ What about Apple, Microsoft and NVIDIA?

Equities that fall into this grouping where upside rallies continue until year-end but then decline rapidly during Q1 ’23 are Apple Inc., Microsoft and NVIDIA. In contrast, the others are forming major lows right now. They are set to outperform over the next several months because they’re unlikely to break below recent lows. This applies to Amazon Inc., Facebook/Meta and Netflix.

The latest Bank of America Fund Manager Survey shows the technology sector as the most underweight since 2006. We’d expect that extreme to neutralise a little with a push higher for technology into year-end. See fig #3.

Watch the latest amazing EW-Navigator video and get more insights about Technology Stocks trading opportunities US Stock Indices update!

EW-Commodities Update

by WaveTrack International| November 3, 2022 | No Comments

Commodities – Base Metals Mixed – Copper & Lead Higher, Aluminium & Zinc Lower – Precious Metals Bottoming, Beginning New Multi-Year Uptrend – Natural Gas Rebound After Massive Declines – Crude/Brent Oil Continue Counter-Trend Rallies from September’s Lows

Natural Gas Prices – Elliott Wave Forecasts predicted the decline!

Commodities Highlight! European TTF Gas prices have declined by -72% per cent from the late-August high whilst U.S. Natural Gas prices have declined during the same time by -52% per cent. And here we are, seeing core inflationary pressures still rising!

Just today, Eurozone CPI (HICP) inflation for October has come through at an annualised headline rate of 10.7% per cent. The highest ever recorded across the Bloc. As a result, core CPI is rising too, but much lower at 5.0% per cent.

Just last week, U.S. headline CPI was annualised at 8.2%, down from June’s high of 9.1% per cent but with core rising much faster, at new post-pandemic highs of 6.6% per cent.

Inflationary Pressures and Natural Gas Conundrum

Both Europe and the U.S. central banks have blamed Food & Energy as the two key components within CPI that are responsible for elevated inflationary pressures. But if that’s correct, how is it possible for continued inflation rises whilst TTF and Natural Gas prices are plummeting? Is this just a lag? Or some other explanation?

What about Japanese Inflation?

Japan is the world’s 3rd biggest economy. They consume food and energy just like you and me. And yet inflation is only 3% per cent – why? We’re told it’s because there’s government price controls in place. E.g. an aging population with some of the world’s highest savings rates and negative interest rates implemented by the Bank of Japan. Certainly, all contributing factors. But are these able to absorb the huge energy price rises of the last 18-months? We think not. One thing’s for sure, now that TTF/Natural Gas prices have collapsed lower, we should expect inflation to come down now. If not, then data manipulation on a grand scale is where our thoughts lead to next.

How are Central Banks responding to rising Inflationary Pressures?

Right now, there’s no let up in Central Banks (CB’s) responding to inflationary pressures. Especially, with aggressive hiking cycles expected to continue through to year-end. The number of CB’s hiking have reached a new peak – see fig #1.

This is having a negative impact on sentiment in both financial markets and small businesses in western economies. Even U.S. Federal Reserve officials are recognising the current pace of interest rate increases are likely to impact growth prospects, even causing a recession – see fig #2.

Commodities and the Bank of America Fund Manager Survey

In the latest Bank of America Fund Manager Survey, close to a record percentage of fund managers expect a weaker economy in the next 12-month period – see fig #3. That’s an incredible number because it surpasses bearish sentiment lows of the pandemic, the financial crisis and the post-dot-com crash lows of 2002. In all cases though, a silver lining in the cloud can be found. Notice how on each occasion of these previous lows, the benchmark S&P 500 begins a new bull market uptrend between 0-12 months afterwards.

That’s very interesting when we also take a look at how Commodity prices fit into the picture. The current extremes of economic pessimism is interpreted as a contrarian bullish signal within the next 0-12 month period. This certainly fits into the overall picture we see in the Elliott Wave structure of both Base Metals and Energy prices.

Commodities and the CRB Index

The CRB-Reuters/Jefferies index illustrates the point – where the post-pandemic advance has unfolded into a five wave impulse pattern from 101.48 finishing last June at 329.59 – see fig #4.

It has since begun a counter-trend downswing, shown unfolding into a corrective double zig zag pattern. This is set for a rebound higher for a month or so, but then continuing its decline until downside targets are reached into the end of Q1 2023, around levels of 202.45+/-. That’s another -25% per cent lower than today’s price levels – it’s already dropped -20% per cent so far this year.

Declines of another -25% per cent are mostly correlated to the Energy markets. Base Metals have already completed most of their corrective declines although there’s still more downside risk too. The exciting area for commodities is precious metals. These are forming major lows with small downside risk this month, New multi-year uptrends are set to begin.

Watch the latest amazing EW-Commodities video and get more insights about s trading opportunities in our latest EW-Commodities Outlook report and video update!

‘SHOCK-POP-DROP’ & ‘INFLATION-POP’ Explained

by WaveTrack International| October 7, 2022 | No Comments

‘SHOCK-POP-DROP’ & ‘INFLATION-POP’Explained!

Almost all commodities ended super-cycle uptrends around the year’s 2006-2008. We define the super-cycle uptrend not from the 1999 lows as is generally considered in the financial industry but from the ‘Great Depression’ lows of 1932. This is because most commodities reached all-time lows at that time. Even lower than levels traded several hundred years earlier and this provides a strong basis for historical Elliott Wave analysis. The subsequent uptrend from the 1932 low unfolded into a five wave impulse pattern into the 2006-08 highs, for benchmarks like the CRB-Cash (CCI) index, Copper and Crude oil – see fig #1.

All price action following those peaks in Commodities around 2006-08 is part of a rebalancing correction to the completion of the Super-Cycle uptrend. This correction is forecast unfolding over the next two decades. Perhaps even a little longer with declining prices over that term. In Elliott Wave terms, the correction can only unfold into three types of pattern or categories, Zig Zag, Flat or Triangle. So far, there’s evidence that confirms a Flat or specifically, an Expanding Flat pattern is taking shape. It consists of three main price-swings, labelled A-B-C subdividing 3-3-5. This is assigned the term ‘Shock-Pop-Drop’ – see fig 2.

‘SHOCK-POP-DROP’

The first ‘SHOCK’ phase develops during the financial-crisis sell-off which comes as a complete surprise to financial markets. The second ‘POP’ phase incites recovery, triggers Central Banks (CB’s) to begin an unprecedented act of Quantitative Easing (QE) forcing asset prices higher but later, inducing Rising Inflationary Pressures until the bubble finally bursts. We’ve specifically termed this the ‘INFLATION-POP’ (we’re experiencing this right now!). That leads to the final third ‘DROP’ phase when financial markets collapse under the weight of debt and excessiveness. As a result, we will see overreaching speculation resulting in massive asset price declines, both stocks and commodities comparable in percentage terms to collapses in stock markets in 1837-1842 (-70%) and 1929-1932 (-90%) – see fig #3.

The financial-crisis that developed in 2007-09 is simply the 1st phase or wave A of the ‘Shock-Pop-Drop’.
The post financial-crisis recovery is the 2nd phase or wave B of the super-cycle correction which is capable of pushing many commodities into new record highs. This phenomenon is not recognised in conventional fundamental/economic or even technical analysis because analysts see this as part of the previous super-cycle uptrend. But the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) specifically identifies such price development as the 2nd phase of the multi-decennial correction of the expanding flat pattern.

‘INFLATION-POP’

This 2nd phase of the expanding flat can be broken-down into a three price-swing event, up-down-up until prices reach new record highs. We know markets adhere to ‘fractal’ qualities of subdivision and this is a good example. These three price-swings are known as an A-B-C zig zag, subdividing 5-3-5 and given the term ‘INFLATION-POP’. Because it will undoubtedly trigger a resurgence of inflationary pressures by the time prices reach new record highs – see fig #4.

There are three price-swings attributed to the A-B-C zig zag pattern. Wave A represents the first phase of the inflation pop and wave C as the second phase. The first phase ended wave A into the 2010-11 highs. The second phase as wave C began from the Feb.’16 lows for Base Metals but extended into the Coronavirus Pandemic lows of March ’20 for energy markets like Crude/Brent oil and for Platinum.

‘RE-SYNCHRONISATION’

The second phase of the inflation-pop began in January/February 2016. At the time corrective declines in developed (stock) markets formed synchronous lows with Emerging Market and Commodity corrections that began from the year-2011 peaks. We termed this as the grand ‘RE-SYNCHRONISATION’ lows. This is why significant price rises have followed. Now, continuing the secular-bull uptrend for stock markets whilst beginning the next but final third phase of inflationary price rises for EM’s and Commodities – see fig #5.

Labelled as primary wave C (could be cycle wave C for some other commodities), the second phase of price rises are typically unfolding into five price-swings or waves, 1-2-3-4-5. Over a period of several years, into the culmination of the next cyclical peak due around the years-2023-24. In some cases, this could extend to 2025-27. So far, wave 1 ended its advance in Base Metals having taken two-years to develop into January/February 2018’s highs. This has since given way to a period or regression or correction in wave 2. In Elliott Wave terms this is a necessary function before prices can resume higher in wave 3 and so on. Wave 2 completed into the March/April COVID-19 lows for various Base Metals.

The Precious Metals Difference

The progress of the inflation-pop for precious metals is somewhat different. They too will succumb to the gradual build-up of inflationary pressures which maintains it within the overall schematic. However, its Elliott Wave pattern progress is different. Gold’s long-term five wave impulse uptrend that dates back to the Great Depression lows remains in upside progress despite trading in Aug.’20 to record highs. Industrial precious metals like Silver and Platinum have a different rhythm but are trending higher during the final phase of the inflation-pop cycle, due to peak latest in 2024-2027 – see fig #6.

The biggest gains during this next second phase of the Inflation-Pop is expected to be in Equity Miners, both Base & Precious Metal Miners with some multiples of 4:1, perhaps more, measuring from those lows of 2016 – see fig #7.

Get more insights about Commodities trading opportunities in our latest EW-Commodities Outlook report and video update!

EW-Commodities Outlook Oct/Nov. 2022

by WaveTrack International| October 7, 2022 | No Comments

EW-Commodities Outlook – Base Metals & Energy set for Rebound Rally – Precious Metals Bottomed, Beginning New Multi-Year Uptrend

EW-Commodities Outlook covering Central Bank impact on Commodity Prices

There’s been a noticeable pick-up in Central Bank activity over the last month with rate hike acceleration becoming the mandate amongst most of the developed countries across the world. The U.S. Federal Reserve are leading the assault higher with aggressive 75bps basis point increases with expectations of more on the way. Just this week, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari said the central bank will need to raise interest rates to a range between 4.50% and 4.75%.

Other Central Banks are not far behind the Fed. However, this lag means the US$ dollar has remained on an upward trajectory, weakening all of the G10 currencies in its wake – see fig #1. And a few Commodities too!

British Pound collapsed against the US$ Dollar

Earlier this week, the British Pound collapsed against the US$ Dollar, causing the Bank of England to implement a support mechanism that prevents further declines for the Pound whilst creating a ceiling in long-dated Gilt yields. These emergency measures are also being considered in continental Europe. Japan is already restraining inflationary pressures by holding JGB 10yr yields below a threshold level of 0.25% per cent. Clearly, monetary policy changes in non-U.S. Central Banks will ultimately cause a US$ Dollar peak as they catch-up with inflation pressures. That’s not too far off, at least from an Elliott Wave perspective.

Recession?

Fears of a global recession have risen over the last month. This is weighing heavily on monetary policy decision-makers, both in the U.S. but more so in Europe – see fig #2. So much so that sentiment has now entered extreme bearish territory, as shown in stock market surveys – see fig #3.

Interestingly though, a majority of global fund managers think inflation has peaked – see fig #4.

Ordinarily, surveys like these provide really important information when they’re measuring historical extremes. They’re contrarian indicators. And these suggest risk-assets are currently approaching important lows. That’s something can confirm that from an Elliott Wave perspective.

Stock markets are retesting or modestly breaking below the March/July lows. Although we’re expecting a big turn-around, lifting prices back inside the last 6-month range for a revisit back to August’s highs. Meanwhile, commodities like Copper which completed the first stage of corrective declines last July is expected to resume higher for another month or two. Crude oil, another bellwether of the economy has just completed the first stage of its own correction that began last March and is now about to head higher for another month or two.

And look at Gold! Prices have now declined into long-standing downside targets just above $1600.00 dollars. This ends a 2-year correction from the Aug.’20 high of 2072.00. That’s really exciting when we look at its upside potential alongside Silver and Platinum…

Get more insights in our latest EW-Commodities Outlook report and video update!

Commodities Trading Opportunities

by WaveTrack International| August 22, 2022 | No Comments

The ELLIOTT WAVE COMMODITIES OUTLOOK

September 2022 Report

Largest Commodities Risk-Off 2022!

The largest declines in this year’s risk-off, inflation surge environment has been in Base and Precious Metals. Copper is down -35% per cent and Gold is down -18% per cent whilst Energy contracts like Crude Oil are down by -34% per cent from March’s high.

Contrastingly, the benchmark S&P 500 was down -24% into June’s low although recovering so much since. It’s only down -10% per cent now. There’s a definitive, positively-correlated link in the commodity markets where Copper, Gold and Crude oil all topped-out last March. There were notable lows in July for Copper and Gold too. Crude oil is still trading at this year’s lows which breaks its correlation somewhat.

Overall, we expect to see further performance disparities going forward. Whilst inflationary pressures have been rising exponentially, it’s highly unlikely that pace will continue at this juncture. A pause is more likely through to year-end, into Q1 2023.

Energy Commodities Crude Oil and Brent Oil

This is mainly due to the downside price potential in Energy markets. Crude/Brent oil completed five wave uptrends from the pandemic lows into March’s highs and corrective declines so far represent only partial retracement levels.

Bank of America’s latest Global Fund Manager’s Survey shows the US$ dollar and long oil/commodities are the biggest positioning trades out there – see fig’s #1 (Chart 12) and fig #2 (Chart 19) – good reason why there’s still a lot of downside potential ahead.

Commodities Proxy Copper

Copper, a proxy for measuring the macro-economic twists and turns has reached original downside targets. However, exceeding them slightly which opens the door for more declines later this year but not before sizable counter-trend rallies finish sometime in September. This dove-tails with the more bearish stock market outlook we have for the remainder of this year. European indices are providing concise Elliott Wave pattern development. Now, showing how the current upside rallies from July’s lows will end in September, then followed by some dramatic declines lasting through to year-end.

Commodities Bullish Signals

The most bullish news comes from the Precious Metals industry. Gold and Silver complete 2-year corrective downswings into July’s lows and are already heading higher to begin new multi-year uptrends. Gains are expected to be underpinned by a weakening US$ dollar which itself has signalled an important peak into July’s high.

Commodities Mid-Year Video Update 2022

The mid-year 2022 Commodities Outlook Report published last month highlighted the expected outperformance of Silver over Gold, Platinum over Silver and even Palladium over Platinum. This month’s report confirms Platinum’s correction that began from the Feb.’21 peak also ended in July with a very bullish outlook going forward.

Get more insights in our latest EW-Commodities Outlook report.

Forex + Bonds Mid-Year Video Part III/III

by WaveTrack International| August 12, 2022 | No Comments

Forex + Bonds Mid-Year Video 2022 | PART III/III

INCLUDES ANALYSIS ON MAJOR US$ DOLLAR PAIRS/CROSSES – ASIAN/EM CURRENCIES – MEDIUM-TERM CYCLES – LONG-DATED YIELDS US/EUROPE/ITALY/AUSTRALIA/JAPAN + MANY SPREADS

Forex + Bonds Highlights

US$ Dollar Peak into July High

16.25 Year Cycle Downtrend in Progress

Euro/US$ Bottoms at 0.9952 Begins New Multi-Year Uptrend

G10 Currency Pairs set for Multi-Year Advances on US$ Dollar Weakness

Asian (ADXY) Dollar Index Finishes Downward Correction Resuming Long-Term Uptrend

Inflation Gauges Forming Interim Peak although 2-Months Lag Behind Interest Rates

US10yr Yield Trending Higher following June’s Correction

European DE10yr Bund Yield Completes June Correction Resuming Uptrend

Yield Inversion Approaching Completion

Forecast Preview – H2 2022

Rising Inflationary Pressures. Central Banks (CB’s) have been wrong-footed by rising inflation this year with the Federal Reserve only last December, realising rising costs were not ‘transitory’ but ‘persistent’ instead. The delay in responding quickly to rising inflationary pressures has caused a significant jump higher in CPI levels as years of suppressing interest rate rises during a time of asset price recovery has triggered market normalisation in its natural function.

History repeats! – Paul Volker failed to respond early to rapid price increases during the 1970’s once the gold standard was replaced with a fiat monetary system. Again, normal market mechanisms were suppressed resulting in a surge in inflation. Now we see the same ‘catch-up’ scenario by the Federal Reserve and other central banks from around the world.

U.S. inflation is running at around 9.1% per cent – Europe at 8.1% per cent – by contrast, China at 2.4% per cent and Japan at 2.0% per cent – see fig #217. Get all Forex + Bond insights in our latest video including PDF with all charts!

G10 Forex

With a US$ dollar peak in July at 109.29, almost all other G10 dollar currency pairs are inversely forming major lows and are set for multi-year gains.

The Euro/US$ has featured this year with declines of -13% per cent and -19% per cent from the Jan.’21 high of 1.2350 into July’s low of 0.9952 although ending the final sequence of its intermediate-term corrective downswing from the pre-financial-crisis-high of 1.6040 as cycle wave B – see fig #228. It’s taken exactly 14 years to complete cycle wave B’s correction but its now opening the way for a new multi-year uptrend as cycle wave C where targets are towards min. 1.9024+/- to max. 2.0699+/-.

AUD vs. USD – Forex Forecast Mid-Year Video Preview

AUD/US$’s medium-term outlook remains very bullish with a primary degree A-B-C zig zag pattern in advance from the April ’01 low of 0.4776. Primary wave C’s advance began from the pandemic low of 0.5507 with intermediate wave (1) ending at 0.8008 in Feb.’21. The trend now resumes to the upside. Ultimate targets over the next several years remain towards 1.5287+/-. See fig’s #249-251.

Watch the complete explanation for the AUD vs. USD forecast with Monthly chart in our latest Elliott Wave Video Mid-Year forecast.

Be Prepared!

Our EW-team worked hard to put this information together in a way that is comprehensive to ensure that you are prepared for the major Forex moves to come in 2022 and beyond. Check out the table of contents below and if you are trading Currencies – don’t miss it!

We invite you to take this next step in our financial journey with us – video subscription details are below – just follow the links and we’ll see you soon!

Most sincerely,

Peter Goodburn
Founder and Chief Elliott Wave Analyst
WaveTrack International

What you get

Contents: 139 charts | VIDEO DURATION: nearly 3 hours 7 mins.
The contents of this CURRENCIES & INTEREST RATES VIDEO include Elliott Wave analysis for:

Forex (91 charts):
• US$ Index + Cycles
• Euro/US$ + Cycles
• Stlg/US$
• US$/Yen
• US$/CHF
• US$/NOK
• US$/SEK
• AUD/US$
• US$/CAD
• NZD/US$
• Euro/Stlg
• Euro/Yen
• Euro/CNY
• Stlg/YEN
• Stlg/AUD
• Stlg/ZAR
• AUD/YEN
• AUD/Renminbi
• AUD/NZD
• Asian ADXY
• US$/Renminbi
• US$/KRW
• US$/SGD
• US$/INR
• US$/TWD
• USD/THB
• US$/MYR
• US$/IDR
• US$/PHP
• USD/BRL
• USD/RUB
• US$/ZAR
• US$/MXN
• US$/TRY
• Bitcoin
• Ethereum

Interest Rates (48 charts):
• US CPI
• US10yr Real Yield
• US30yr Yield + Cycles
• US10yr Yield + Cycles
• US5yr Yield
• US2yr Yield
• US2yr-10yr Yield Spread
• US10yr-30yr Yield Spread
• 3mth EuroDollar-US10yr Yield Spread
• Comparison US10-DE10yr vs S&P 500
• US10yr TIPS Break Even Inflation Rate
• US10-DE10yr Yield Spread
• DE10yr Yield
• ITY10yr Yield
• Italy10-DE10yr Yield Spread
• Australia 10yr Yield
• Japan 10yr Yield

How to buy the Forex + Bonds Mid-Year Video Update 2022

Simply contact us @ services@wavetrack.com to buy the CURRENCIES + INTEREST RATES Mid-Year Video Update 2022 for USD 48.00 (+ VAT where applicable) or alternatively our Triple Video Offer for USD 96.00 (+ VAT where applicable) – Review the content of WaveTrack Stock Indices Video PART I here and the Commodities Video PART II here.

Each video runs for at least up to 2 hours and it’s packed with SPECIFIC Elliott Wave price-forecasts (the Stock Indices Video is 2 hour 10 mins long!).

*(additional VAT may be added depending on your country – currently US, Canada, Asia have no added VAT but most European countries do)

We’re sure you’ll reap the benefits – don’t forget to contact us with any Elliott Wave questions – Peter is always keen to hear you views, queries and comments.

Visit us @ www.wavetrack.com

New Mid-Year COMMODITIES Video Update available

by WaveTrack International| July 13, 2022 | No Comments

‘COMMODITIES CORRECTION WELL UNDERWAY’ – ‘PAUSE WITHIN INFLATION-POP’ CYCLE’ – ‘BASE METALS REACH INTERIM LOWS’ – ‘PRECIOUS METALS CONTINUING DOWNWARD CORRECTION’ – ‘ENERGY, CRUDE/BRENT OIL BEARISH’

We’re pleased to announce the publication of WaveTrack’s Mid-Year Video Update of medium-term ELLIOTT WAVE price-forecasts. Today’s release is PART II, COMMODITIES – Part I was released last month and Part III will be published in late-July / beginning of August 2022…

• PART I – STOCK INDICES – out now!
• PART II – COMMODITIES – out now!
• PART III – CURRENCIES & INTEREST RATES – coming soon!

Commodities Forecast Highlights

This year’s bearish forecasts for commodities are in full swing but there are correlation disparities between sectors and other asset classes which is causing confusion amongst investors.

Copper is down almost -30% per cent and only now testing original targets

Crude oil is down -21% although has been -28% per cent last March

Gold is down -14% per cent whilst key industry miners are down around -35% per cent

Commodities Outperformers

The outperformers are generally those in the Energy industry with equities in this sector only beginning to decline from June peaks, several months later than in Base/Precious metals.

Commodities Expected Underperformers

Energy is expected to underperform for the remainder of this year as it attempts to catch up in its corrective decline.

Commodities Super-Cycle

The Commodity Super-Cycle beginning from the Great Depression lows of year-1932 ended in 2006-08. Since then, a multi-decennial corrective downswing has begun a new deflationary era but with pockets of rising inflationary pressures.

One of those pockets of rising inflationary pressures resumed in early 2016 but gained momentum in 2021 resulting in huge rises since, into this year’s current levels over 8% per cent. A pause in this uptrend of inflation is expected to begin now. Expected to last into year-end. And perhaps Q1 2023 but resuming higher again afterwards resulting in a final peak due in 2023/24, latest 2025 – this is the final phase of the ‘Inflation-Pop’ cycle.

CRB Cash Index – Commodities Indicator

The completion of the super-cycle uptrend in July ’08 opens the door to a multi-decennial correction which ultimately demands prices return back towards ‘fourth wave preceding degree’ basis R.N. Elliott’s original tenet.

This CRB Cash Index forecast unfolding into a cycle degree expanding flat pattern, A-B-C where the initial downswing as cycle wave A unfolds into a smaller expanding flat, ending into the COVID-19 low of 316.67 last March 2020. Cycle wave B is now engaged in a multi-year rally targeting the fib. 38.2% extension ratio at 787.00+/-. Once completed, the final stage of an expanding flat pattern can develop, shown here as a five wave expanding-impulse. Extending cycle A by a fib. 61.8% ratio ultimately projects a terminal low for the zig zag towards 216.43+/-. Latest: The data for this index are not available any more, it discontinued by the end of January ’21. We keep this chart for the past price development. See Fig #1

Commodities – Themes of the Video

This video is Part II and we’ll be taking a look at over 117 individual commodity contracts and cycles within three main sub-sectors, Base Metals, Precious Metals and Energy.

The central themes we’ll be discussing in this video include how rising inflationary pressures have gripped most parts of the world. Moreover, how central banks are responding with revised monetary policies and what impact this is having on commodities?

We’ll begin by taking a look at the very long-term commodity cycle from the Great Depression lows into major peaks during the last decade – and how that began the ‘inflation-pop’ cycle, a term we conceived back in 2011 to describe the up-coming inflation surge which has now become a reality. And much more…

This is WaveTrack’s state of the art video -only available twice a year- if you are trading commodities this is a must have.

Sincerely,

Peter Goodburn & EW-team

Commodities Video Part II

Contents: 117 charts
Time: 2 hours 47 mins.

• CRB-Cash index + Cycles
• US 30yr Corporate Bond Yield Cycle
• US CPI
• US 10yr TIPS Break Even Inflation Rate
• Food and Agriculture Index
• DB PowerShares Agriculture Fund
• US Dollar index + Cycles
• Copper + Cycles
• Aluminium
• Lead
• Zinc
• Nickel
• Tin
• Iron Ore
• Uranium
• Rare Earths
• XME Metals & Mining Index
• BHP-Billiton
• Freeport McMoran
• OZ Limited Copper
• Antofagasta
• Anglo American
• Glencore
• Rio Tinto
• Teck Resources
• Vale
• Fortescue Metals (Iron Ore)
• Metals X (Tin)
• Gold
• Gold-Silver Ratio
• Silver
• Platinum/Silver Ratio
• Platinum
• Palladium/Platinum Ratio
• Palladium
• GDX Gold Miners Index
• Newmont Mining
• Amer Barrick Gold
• Agnico Eagle Mines
• AngloGold Ashanti
• XAU Gold/Silver Index
• Fresnillo Silver
• Crude Oil + Cycles
• Brent Oil
• Gasoline RBOB
• Natural Gas
• UK NBP Natural Gas
• TTF Natural Gas
• XLE Energy SPDR
• XOP Oil and Gas Index

How can you purchase the video?

1. Contact us @ services@wavetrack.com and ask for a PayPal payment link (please state if you like to purchase the Commodities Single video or the Triple Video?).
2. Ask for an individual credit card payment link (in case you do not wish to pay via PayPal).

Each video runs for at least up to 2 hours and it’s packed with SPECIFIC Elliott Wave price-forecasts (the Stock Indices Video is 2 hour 20 mins long!).

*(additional VAT may be added depending on your country – currently US, Canada, Asia have no added VAT but most European countries do)

We’re sure you’ll reap the benefits – don’t forget to contact us with any Elliott Wave questions – Peter is always keen to hear you views, queries and comments.

Visit us @ www.wavetrack.com

We’re sure you’ll reap the benefits. Don’t forget to contact us with any Elliott Wave questions. Our EW-team is always keen to hear your views, queries, and comments.

Visit us @ www.wavetrack.com

Stock Indices Mid-Year Video Update PART I/III

by WaveTrack International| June 14, 2022 | No Comments

STOCK INDICES MID-YEAR VIDEO UPDATE 2022 Part I/III

2022’s Correction Hits Interim Targets – Final Lows in October-December

Interim-Peak in Inflation

This Year’s Equity Declines Forming Interim Lows

Upward Correction set for Gains of +17% from May Lows into July

Equites then Turn Down Again Until October-December

Recession Fears Gain Traction

Nasdaq/Technology Post Gains June-July then Down Sharply into Year-End

European Indices Rally June-July but also Down into October-December

MSCI Emerging Markets bottomed Last March

Set to Outperform

China/Hong Kong Positive Outlooks

Stock Indices Report PART I

This year’s stock market trends have certainly been impacted by the new rate hike cycle. The S&P 500 is down -20% per cent from January’s high into May’s low whilst the Nasdaq 100 is down -30% per cent. ETF’s like the Fangs+ technology index is down -42% per cent with individual component equities down by -77% per cent. In terms of performance, it’s a very mixed affair. On the other side of the scale, outperforming sectors like Consumer Staples (XLP) held up pretty well, trading to a new post-pandemic high last April, and only then staging sharp declines that begin multi-month corrections.

What next?

So far, the annual Stock Indices Report PART I published last December ’21 called this market downturn perfectly – see Fig #1 – but what next?

U.S. indices have declined from their November/January highs into ‘a-b-c’ zig zag patterns that ended into the May lows. Sentiment was registering bearish extremes at the time and this pessimism was also seen in various Fund Manager surveys. But as prices recover higher. So analysts are now questioning whether this is simply a counter-trend rally or the resumption of the prevailing secular uptrend?

In this mid-year Stock Indices PART I report, we’ll show clues suggesting May’s recovery is most likely a counter-trend bounce ahead of more declines later this year.

Stock Indices World – Bovespa Brazil Forecast

Supporting this outlook, we’ll be taking a look at a very different type of corrective pattern that began unfolding from last November’s high in Europe from February’s high in Australia. These establish critical archetypes and Elliott Wave price forecasts for other major indices from around the world, in Brazil, Saudi Arabia, India, Singapore, Taiwan and Japan – and in China, Hong Kong, a few surprises too!

New Stock Indices 2022 Video – PART I/III

This 2022 MID-YEAR VIDEO UPDATE for STOCK INDICES is like nothing you’ve seen anywhere else in the world. It’s unique to WaveTrack International, how we foresee trends developing through the lens of Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) and how its forecasts correlate with Cycles, Sentiment extremes and Economic data trends.

We invite you to take this next step in our financial journey with us – video subscription details are below – just follow the links and we’ll see you soon!

Most sincerely,

Peter Goodburn
Founder and Chief Elliott Wave Analyst
WaveTrack International

Contents Stock Indices Mid-Year Video Update 2022

Charts: 91 | Video: 2 hours 40 mins.

30 Bond Yield Cycle

CPI

US 10yr Yield and TIIPS

S&P 500 + cycles

NYSE Advance-Decline

AAII Bullish Sentiment

VIX Volatility Index

Dow Jones 30

Russell 2000

Nasdaq 100

Value vs Growth

DJ Transportation Average

DJ Utility Index

KBW Banking Index

XLF Financial

XLK Technology

FANG+

NASDAQ Biotechnology

Biotechn Small Cap XBI

XLV Health Care

SOX Semiconductor

XLY Consumer Discretionary

XLP Consumer Staples

Eurostoxx 50

Xetra Dax 30

FTSE-100

FTSE-30

EuroStock Banks

Deutsche Bank

UniCredit

Commerzbank

MSCI Emerging Market

MSCI China

China Enterprises

Hang Seng

Shanghai Composite

Bovespa

Tasi

Sensex

Nifty 50

Singapore Straits

Taiwan SE Weighted

All Ordinaries Australia

ASX 200

Nikkei 225

Read more «Stock Indices Mid-Year Video Update PART I/III»

Commodity Highlights

by WaveTrack International| May 4, 2022 | No Comments

‘COMMODITY CORRECTION DURING NEXT 6-8 MONTHS’ – ‘PAUSE WITHIN INFLATION-POP’ CYCLE UPTREND’ – INFLATIONARY PRESSURES EASE – Base Metals Turning Down – Energy Resuming March’s Decline – Precious Metals Testing Important Support Levels – Gold Miners Remain Bullish

Extract from May’s Elliott Wave Commodity Outlook Report

Commodity May Report – In This Edition

Base Metals

Commodity prices have continued to trade near relative post-pandemic highs. But they’ve also remains below the March peaks in a sign of directional change. Base Metals are trading lower over the week following last month’s short-term corrective rallies. Prices for Copper, Aluminium, Lead and Zinc are all heading lower. Negative headwinds are centered around a strong US$ dollar. However more recently, the impact from China’s latest city-wide coronavirus lockdowns are raising concerns.

Inflationary pressures remain in focus as long-dated U.S. interest rates remain stubbornly high although there are several signs of an imminent interim peak forming within this inflation-pop cycle.

U.S. headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) continued to break records with the March ’22 data at 8.5% per cent whilst the Fed’s PCE headline numbers are at 6.6% per cent, core at 5.2% per cent. The Federal Reserve remains on track to deliver a 50bps hike in rates this week to 0.75-1.00% per cent although it remains far behind the curve. Its quantitative tightening programme is too little, too late with the bond market pricing-in too much at current levels. One elevator is rising whilst the other is declining.

US Dollar

The US$ dollar has exceeded our upside expectations although the longer-term picture remains bearish. A dollar peak sometime this month would represent an ensuing decline as inflation-trade long-positioning is unwound.

Precious Metals and Miners

Precious metals have been declining over the last month. This trend is in-line with Elliott Wave analysis with downside risk in focus. But there are alternate bullish counts which show an imminent low forming just below current price levels in gold and silver that could, if held, turn things around. Several of the gold miners are approaching important support levels, turning bullish.

Energy

In the Energy markets, Natural Gas has been the commodity that has continued higher over the last month. Although it too has hit some important upside levels and is now edging lower. Crude and Brent oil completed their five wave impulse post-pandemic uptrends into the March highs and is set to accelerate lower this month in a continuation of multi-month corrections. The XLE Energy ETF and the XOP Oil & Gas ETF’s are also set to head lower.

DB-Agriculture Fund ETF

Inflation-led commodities like grains and other foodstuffs are trading into upside resistance levels as measured in the DB-Agriculture Fund ETF. An ensuing corrective downswing is expected to begin now, lasting into year-end. A correction is also signalled for the FAO’s Food & Agriculture index.

The Food and agriculture sectors have been in focus once again as inflationary pressures continue to rise. Ukraine is a major producer of grains to the world (see graphic in last month’s Elliott Wave Commodity April 2022 report – fig #2) and as the war with Russia rolls on, so has there been talk of major shortages due to disruptions in the spring planting season. There’s also problems with supplies of fertilizers which rely on natural gas for conversion. And natural gas prices have risen exponentially over the last couple of years. China is apparently hoarding over half of the world’s grain. This year, China will have 69% per cent of the world’s corn, 60% per cent of its rice and 51% per cent of its wheat. The question is why? Are they expecting some catastrophic event?

Commodity Spotlight China

Beginning in 1999/2000, China implemented grain policies to reduce its excessive stocks. By early 2004, with global stocks at a more normal level relative to use, global rice prices began to slowly increase. Prices then rose exponentially higher. However, China secured a long-term lease with Madagascar back in 2008 to grow rice ensuring supplies when prices had just reached an all-time-peak. In hindsight, that was a really bad trade as prices collapsed lower in subsequent years. Which means the build-up of its current stockpile might simply be due to a hard learning curve from the rice explosion of a decade earlier.

The DB Agriculture Fund (ETF) has unfolded higher from the pandemic low of 13.15. Now, completing a five wave impulse pattern into the May ’21 high of 19.36 as primary wave A – see fig #1. This is an important date as will become apparent later. It’s the same date that ended the post-pandemic five wave impulse uptrend for the US10yr Breakeven Inflation Rate (TIPS) and for LME 3mths Copper. All three contracts have since begun corrective downswings in the form of expanding flats. For the Agriculture Fund, this is labelled in intermediate degree, (A)-(B)-(C) where wave (B) has just completed into April’s high of 22.88. Wave (C) is set to decline over the coming months. Ultimate targets remain unchanged towards 16.50+/-.

Food & Agriculture Index

The Food & Agriculture Organisation, a division of the United Nations posted latest data for the Food & Agriculture Index – see fig #2. Intermediate wave (5)’s advance within the long-term primary degree uptrend began from grand ‘Re-Synchronisation’ low of 84.90 of late-2015/early-2016. This advance is developing nicely, into a smaller degree five wave impulse pattern, i-ii-iii-iv-v where its 3rd wave is peaking now at 159.30. Note, a corrective 4th wave is forecast over the next 6-8 month period. This is an indication that the current scarcity narrative being broadcast in mainstream media is overcooked. A correction would also mean inflationary pressures are set to pause for a while.

Special Coverage of Base Metals, Precious Metals, Energy and Metal Miners in WaveTrack’s latest Elliott Wave Commodity Report

Available here EW-Commodity Report Subscription for USD 240 per month.

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