STOCK INDICES VIDEO – 2nd Phase of the ‘INFLATION-POP’ Gets Underway!
by WaveTrack International| December 22, 2016 | No Comments
Elliott Wave Price Forecasts & Cycle Projections for 2017
2nd Phase of the ‘INFLATION-POP’ Gets Underway!
We’re pleased to announce the publication of WaveTrack’s 2017 video update of medium-term forecasts for STOCK INDICES!
Since the inaugural edition of the EW-Compass report, you’ve asked for accompanying medium/long-term analysis in gaining a broader perceptive of Elliott Wave pattern development for many of the world’s major indices. So we’ve taken many charts from our institutional Elliott Wave Forecast database and compiled them into a video series, publishing them twice yearly, each December/January, June/July.
As the demand for more indices grew, so did our task in maintaining them to a sufficient standard – no problem! So now, we’ve set aside sufficient resources to ensure the medium/long-term outlooks are sent to you at key marker dates during the year.
There are over 120 charts being maintained round the clock so it’s necessary to split the videos into THREE parts – Part I STOCK INDICES, PART II COMMODITIES & PART III CURRENCIES & INTEREST RATES.
PART I Stock Indices VIDEO is available NOW!
This latest update of U.S., European and Global/Emerging market indices covers 38 newly illustrated Elliott Wave forecasts of the medium and long-term time-series. Our chief Elliott Wave analyst and Founder of WaveTrack International, Peter Goodburn is again your host. Once again, he talks us through all of the main themes and up-coming changes that are apparent within the pattern development of the major markets. He also illustrates some of the major cycles for the benchmark S&P 500 index, expounding his articulate knowledge of cyclicity obtained from his 25-year study of luminaries such as Edward Dewey and W.D. Gann.
The stock index list includes medium/long-term Elliott Wave analysis for the following:
Peter’s work is absolutely unique – you’ll be taking a look at Elliott Wave counts never seen anywhere else – GUARENTEED!
His 25-years of ground-breaking research into the seamless adherence of pattern development unfolding within specific geometric, Fibonacci dimensions provides the foundation for all the Elliott Wave forecasts shown in this video. This has enabled Peter to identify major directional changes ahead of time over the last sixteen years – for example:
• Identified a major top in the Dow Jones (DJIA) in March 2000
• Forecast the exact low in the Dow Jones in Oct.’02
• Forecast the Dow Jones’ high in Oct.’07 3-years ahead of time
• Identified the Dow/S&P’s price low ahead of March ‘09
• Forecast the S&P’s decline in year-2011 to exact levels in October’s low
• Described + published the Secular-Bull uptrend in 2010-2011 into record highs
In last December’s Stock Index update, Peter described how major indices were trending lower but with the S&P’s cycle analysis signalling a major low in late-January/February – see this cycle analysis below…
S&P 500 – Weekly -Composite Cycle
…and how the KBW Banking Index was finalising a major low before resuming its medium-term uptrend…
WaveTrack’s KBW Banking Index Forecast – Weekly
These were just two hints that markets were going to get off to a shaky start, but then turn around to resume larger uptrends!
Get Up-to-date on the next 6-month outlook – & beyond!
As an Elliott Wave Compass subscriber, we’ve ensured you have access to this Institutional–grade analysis at very modest expense.
PART I Stock Indices VIDEO is available now, at only $48.00!
We’ll send you a personal link so that you can watch the video, anytime at your convenience.
And if you’d like to subscribe to the up-coming COMMODITIES & CURRENCIES videos in PART II & PART III, you can receive ALL THREE for $96.00! – that’s a saving of 33% per cent!
• Single Video – $48.00
• Triple Package offer – $96.00 (saving 33%)!
If you saw the EW forecasts for the COMMODITIES Video published in January’s 2016 PART II update, you’d find that downside targets were successfully achieved!…here’s an extract:
Commodities – Newmont Mining – Weekly
Since then, Newmont Mining has traded higher by an amazing +200% per cent!
And if you followed the CURRENCY video in combination with the Emerging Market and Commodity outlooks, you would have been fully prepared for a big change in the US$ dollar, and related EM/Commodity Currencies, like the Canadian Dollar:
Currencies – USD vs. CAD – Weekly
CONTACT US NOW VIA EMAIL – SELECT YOUR PACKAGE
Single Video – $48.00 – PART I STOCK INDICES (Dec. ’16)
Triple Package offer – $96.00 (saving 33%)! – PART I – PART II – PART III (Dec. ’16 – Feb. ’17)
PARTS II & III will be available in a few weeks’ time (2017!) – we’re working on it!
HOW CAN YOU RECEIVE THE VIDEO FORECAST?
To receive your VIDEO UPDATE please click here to contact us.
– Please state if you wish to purchase the SINGLE VIDEO for STOCK INDICES for USD 48.00?
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We’re sure you’ll reap the benefits – don’t forget to contact us with any Elliott Wave questions – Peter is always keen to hear you views, queries and comments.
Most sincerely,
WaveTrack’s Elliott Wave Team
Visit us @ www.wavetrack.com
GOOGLE – Fib-Price-Ratio Study
by WaveTrack International| December 7, 2016 | 2 Comments
Check this Out! – Fib-Price-Ratio Study Pinpoints Google low at 727.54
Fibonacci-Price-Ratios (FPR’s) form an integral part of the Elliott Wave process of identifying reversals in major markets. Over the last twenty years, we’ve catalogued and archive several hundred examples of how fib-price-ratios can be used in a systematic way to identify a pattern’s completion and a subsequent change of direction/trend.
Each of R.N. Elliott’s 13 patterns have a short-list of accompanying fib-price-ratios that recur with high frequency. This means applying those fib-price-ratios that are specific to the pattern that is evolving. Using this standard approach requires discipline but it’s definitely worth the effort in learning them.
In this example, we can see that Google Inc. declined from its October 25th high of 816.68 into a simple corrective pattern, specifically, a three wave/price-swing zig zag that subdivides 5-3-5 – see fig #1. Once wave [a] of the zig zag has completed, in this case at 750.56, the standard approach is to extend wave [a] by a fib. 38.2% and 61.8% ratio. The former projects wave [c] declines to 726.74 and the latter to 712.40. Once wave [b] ends its counter-trend correction, in this case to 795.63, one additional fib-price-ratio measurement can be applied – this one, I’m sure you’re familiar with already – using a fib. 100% correlation ratio, measuring the equal length/amplitude of waves [a] and [c] – that would project a terminal low for wave [c] towards 731.21.
Google Inc. – 30 mins chart
But one subtle observation also comes through in the analysis of this zig zag decline – wave [b] was quite a deep retracement, slightly more than a fib. 61.8% ratio. That’s important because when ‘B’ waves extend beyond the fib. 50% retracement level, there is a greater statistical probability that wave [c] declines will halt at the fib. 38.2% extension level of wave [a]. And in Google Inc.’s case, it did, wave [c]’s decline ended right into the fib. 38.2% extension target zone, with an actual low formed at 727.54 – not bad!
Looking ahead, we can apply the same FPR guideline to the following advance from 727.54. The next high unfolded into a typical five wave expanding-impulse pattern, ending at 775.00 on November 18th. This means upside continuity into the future. If we don’t know what the larger Elliott Wave pattern is, then this advance can be either the beginning of a new five wave uptrend or another zig zag, this time, wave [x] within the continuation of a double zig zag decline from 816.68 as minute wave 2. Either way, an upside attempt is consistent for both wave counts/scenarios. And so, extending the initial five wave upswing from 727.54-775.00 by a fib. 38.2% and fib. 61.8% ratio projects two upside objectives to either 793.94+/- or 805.87+/-. These are, of course, minimum upside targets based in the assumption the entire advance from 727.54 is a zig zag pattern, labelled wave [x]. When prices test either of these levels, we’ll check on whether a five wave subdivision is evident in this next advance from 737.02 – if it does subdivide into a five wave pattern then stages price-rejection, we’ll know that it is ending wave [x] and that prices will then begin a secondary zig zag decline that ultimately trades below 727.54.
But should the price action thrust above these levels, it would otherwise indicate Google Inc. has resumed its much larger/aggregate uptrend as minute wave 3.
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GOLD – Sentiment Extremes
by WaveTrack International| December 1, 2016 | No Comments
If you’re feeling Bearish – Stop it now! Break bad habits
Isn’t it amazing to see how extremes in price activity ultimately expose the fragility of the human condition? The markets are a terrific teacher in training us to master ourselves, in an effort to conquer our whims and emotions that flood through the veins during times of price excess. There are degrees of excess which of course, translates itself into the fractal model of the Elliott Wave Principle. Major peaks like the dot.com highs of year 2000 or the sub-prime peak of 2007 are naturally exposing euphoric sentiment at much higher levels than say intermediate highs traded in 2011. Likewise, major lows are similarly graded, although we rely on sentiment models to help determine each rating.
Gold Forecast – 19th Jul 2016 – Result! 1st December 2016
It’s an ongoing, life-time process of self-development with the goal of withdrawing oneself from the capture of the herd instinct – trading in the crowd, which ordinarily turns bullish at highs and bearish at lows. It’s a difficult process to master – to sell when the herd is buying or is bullish, and to buy when the herd is selling or bearish. But once practised, amazing revelations are there for each of us to grasp onto. For example, the herd was bullish into gold and silver’s highs of last July/August even though this proved to be an important peak. Our Elliott Wave report at the time turned bearish because of two factors – Elliott Wave analysis and the bullish sentiment extremes of the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports. And so it comes as no surprise to read that some analysts, commentators are suddenly questioning gold and silver’s uptrends established earlier this year, just because prices are now considerably lower than they were 3-4 months ago.
The renowned gold bullion dealers Sharps Pixley (SP) are obviously not immune to the trials of self-development as they lead an article published Wednesday November 30th entitled ‘Gold’s 2016 Rally Was Built On Sand’. It states that physical precious metal demand was lacking in this year’s run higher, exposing the trends weakness. Oh, we lament! If this was really a concern, why not publish these facts at the peak in July/August – why wait ‘till now? Of course, we know why. Analysts are beginning to think about annual 2017 forecasts – some have already penned opinions that a rising US$ dollar and higher interest rates will keep precious metals from trending higher. We’ve seen a few reports already taking this line of thought so SP is not alone. But to the trained nose and with a little help from EW and sentiment statistics, an important low in gold and silver is not too far off.
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Biotechnology (NBI) Fades After Trump-Jump
by WaveTrack International| November 23, 2016 | No Comments
NASDAQ Biotechnology Index – 30 mins.
NBI Fades After Trump-Jump | Biotechnology Index (NBI)
The Biotechnology Index (NBI) jumped higher following the Trump election win – this was no great surprise from an Elliott Wave perspective because prior to the voting, the NBI had already begun a counter-trend rally in response to the completion of a preceding five wave impulse decline that began from 3154.36. The only deviation from original forecasts higher towards 61.8% resistance at 2923.00+/- was the depth of the rally. But given the market’s unexpected response, it’s not unusual to see targets being extended in a moment of emotive short-covering.
The index has since traded up to 3075.45 – that’s almost a fib. 85.4% retracement of the 1st wave decline, about maximum for a deep 2nd wave retracement. As other major indices stretch to new higher-highs, the NBI is already waning, gradually working its way lower as if to begin its 3rd wave decline. Basis the preceding five wave pattern unfolding within the decline from September’s high of 3154.36 into the early-November low at 2582.20, it should be impossible for the index to trade any higher, and definitely not break above 3154.36. Could it be that this index is providing a pre-cursor look at an imminent downtrend getting underway for the broader market?
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Presidential Election – TRUMP Win! – Elliott Wave
by WaveTrack International| November 9, 2016 | No Comments
S&P500 – 240 mins vs. S&P 500 E-Mini
WRONG ELECTION CALL – CORRECT MARKET FORECAST
S&P 500
Donald Trump has just passed through the electoral finishing line ahead of Hilary Clinton to become President elect. That was a surprise outcome given the proximity and location of various stock indices – but the real irony is the fact that the market’s reaction is behaving perfectly in-line with the Elliott Wave forecasts!
The August decline was labelled as a developing zig zag pattern with downside targets towards 2067.25+/- basis the cash index. The cash index is currently closed having ended last night (Tuesday) at 2139.53. But the futures contract has reacted down to 2028.50 on news that Trump was first to reach 270 electoral votes but in so doing, has ended the zig zag at this lower level, derived not by extending wave (a) of the zig zag by a fib. 61.8% ratio but by a fib. 100% ratio.
The markets have reacted higher since to 2095.00.
What does this tell us about the future direction of the S&P? Firstly, it affirms the assumption that the August decline is a counter-trend within the larger/aggregate uptrend – so that refutes the doom & gloom-ers that cite a secular-bear decline about to begin. Secondly, the counter-trend reaction that has already begun following the trade to 2028.50 is likely to last another few trading days, perhaps ending sometime early next week. This will enable indices like the Biotechnology (NBI) index to complete its own counter-trend upside rally (see Tuesday’s blog).
On another level, a Trump victory seems not to have changed the larger/aggregate picture as described in recent months. The short-term rallies may extend into next week but then fade as the larger, more bearish patterns are still indicating a double-digit percentage decline lies ahead.
This inevitably means adopting the more bearish ‘alternate count’ #2 scenario for the S&P where today’s zig zag completion to 2028.50 is simply the first zig zag in an ongoing double formation. A secondary zig zag decline would eventually pull the index lower over the next few months towards 1934.00+/-. This would align with the double-digit percentage declines we expect from other major indices, notably the Eurostoxx 50 and the Nikkei 225.
More on this subject in tonight’s Market Report
Presidential Election – Clinton Win! – Elliott Wave
by WaveTrack International| November 8, 2016 | No Comments
Presidential Election – Clinton Win! – Elliott Wave
Biotechnology Index (NBI)
As the U.S. electorate goes to the polls, it still seems that the battle between Trump & Clinton is a close-run race for the White House. Latest opinion-polls places Trump on 43.6% of the vote, Clinton slightly ahead at 46.8% per cent, 9.6% per cent abstaining. But can the Elliott Wave Principle offer some insights ahead of the result?
In last Friday’s report, we had identified a counter-trend rally for most of the major global stock markets about to begin – that was confirmed Monday morning when the FBI announced Clinton’s reprieve. But now that prices have rallied higher, is this just a counter-trend rally and the prelude to a major sell-off ahead of a Trump win? The latest update of the short-term wave development of the Biotechnology index (NBI) says no.
Biotechnology Index – 30 mins.
During the last month, the Biotechnology index (NBI) has underperformed the market significantly, declining from its late-September high by -18% per cent. But its five wave pattern has been confirmed as ending just a few days ago at 2582.20. A counter-trend upswing has only just begun. R.N. Elliott’s guideline is that a corrective [rally] will return prices to ‘fourth wave preceding degree’, towards 2827.09, in which case, this has more upside potential.
The markets binary-think assessment of the election outcome is that a Trump win would send the major market indices down by between 5-10% per cent. Basis this Elliott Wave count, that outcome can be eliminated. It would indicate a Clinton victory.
Looking ahead, the upswing is so far, attempting to unfold into a five wave impulse pattern – a fib. 38.2% correction would take the index to an interim target at 2787.00+/-. Extending this by a fib. 61.8% ratio would eventually take the index above resistance at ‘fourth wave preceding degree’, towards the fib. 61.8% retracement area at 2923.00+/-.
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SP500 Cycle – PLUS Elliott Wave ‘Buy Signal’
by WaveTrack International| October 17, 2016 | No Comments
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SP500 Cycle – PLUS Elliott Wave ‘Buy Signal’
This is just one of WaveTrack International’s proprietary devised composite cycles for the S&P 500. It highlighted this year’s major low last January/February as the index traded to an extremity of 1810.10. It also combined with Elliott Wave analysis that pinpointed the low as ending a multi-month double zig zag pattern that began from the May ’15 high. When these two deterministic disciplines come together, a high-probability event is triggered.
S&P 500 Cycle – Combined with Elliott Wave ‘Buy Signal’
The rest is history – the S&P has since traded to new record highs, to 2193.81 into a mid-August high. The composite cycle also forewarned that the next important cycle-peak would come in late-July.
If you’d like to examine these cycles for yourself, send us a message requesting our latest video series updates of the medium/long-term forecasts for STOCK INDICES. Use the Help-desk located at wavetrack.com or send us an e-mail request (address in same location). June publication – US$48.00.
For Institutional buy-side organisations, please contact us for subscriptions to the monthly Elliott Wave Forecast/Navigator reports here or read more about our services here.
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To receive your VIDEO UPDATE please click here to contact us.
– Please state if you wish to purchase the SINGLE VIDEO for STOCK INDICES for USD 48.00? Read the full Table of Content of this amazing video here!
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We’re sure you’ll reap the benefits – don’t forget to contact us with any Elliott Wave questions – Peter is always keen to hear you views, queries and comments.
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Tags: Composite Cycle
Eurostoxx 50 – Elliott Wave Running Flat
by WaveTrack International| October 12, 2016 | No Comments
EuroStoxx 50 – 60 mins. Elliott Wave Forecast
Elliott Wave Running Flat – Eurostoxx 50
READY – STEADY – GO (ING DOWN)!
Our recent short-term post of the Eurostoxx 50 described how a horizontal flat corrective patterns turns into a running flat. Actually, the only real difference is in the way its third sequence, labelled wave c. (minor degree) falls short of ‘idealised’ horizontal/parallel targets which effectively means it ‘truncates’, due to a build-up of selling pressure, as in the case of this example – see fig #1.
This is not just educational because it also offers a glimpse into how this index is changing direction and now heading lower. The horizontal/running flat pattern has finalised this balancing/corrective sequence in response to the earlier five wave expanding-impulse decline that unfolded between 3103.00-2908.00 as intermediate wave (1). This establishes a downtrend. So now, with the horizontal/running flat pattern ending wave (2), there is a heightened probability that the downtrend will now resume, as wave (3) with some impressive declines ahead.
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GOLD – Elliott Wave Compass Track Record and Forecast!
by WaveTrack International| October 6, 2016 | No Comments
GOLD – 420 mins. Forecast dated 8th July 2016
Elliott Wave Compass Track Record – SELL SIGNAL GOLD – July 8th 2016 – Gold Declines Ahead!
How did you do? Accountability: this is one of WaveTrack’s amazing forecasts published in the renown Elliott Wave insider publication called Elliott Wave Compass.
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Eurostoxx 50 – Elliott Wave Running Flat
by WaveTrack International| October 4, 2016 | No Comments
When a Horizontal Flat turns into a Running Flat
Recent updates in our bi-weekly reports have intoned a very bearish outlook for global stock markets for the next several months. This is mainly because of multi-month running flat patterns unfolding in indices like the Eurostoxx 50 and Nikkei 225, ending early-September.
EuroStoxx 40 – 60 mins.
For the Eurostoxx 50, this running flat pattern ended at 3103.00 (futures). The subsequent decline affirms the bearish outlook for the next several months because it unfolded into a clearly visible Elliott Wave impulse pattern, specifically, a five wave expanding-impulse ending at 2908.00 – see chart, fig #1.
This has subsequently been balanced by a counter-trend upswing which is just completing, now, at 3030.00. The correction has unfolded into a horizontal flat and labelled in minor degree, a-b-c, subdividing 3-3-5. The horizontal flat is identified because its second sequence, minor wave b. unfolded into a three wave zig zag, but completed at the horizontal low of the origin of minor wave a., at 2908.00.
Ordinarily, the third sequence as minor wave c. would be expected to now unfold higher whilst unfolding into a five wave pattern, but ending at the horizontal high that ended minor wave a. / began minor wave b. at 3050.00. But in this case, it has run short, ending the five wave pattern at 3030.00. This means the horizontal flat changes into a running flat because wave c. is ‘truncated’.
Some Elliott Wave practitioners eliminate the possibility that a horizontal flat, where waves a. and b. remain horizontal can allow wave c. to run short to mutate into a running flat. The argument is that wave b. ordinarily would break below the extremity of wave a. to validate this. For the record, this is not necessary, as this chart proves.
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