WaveTrack International

Elliott Wave Financial Price Forecasting

GOLD – Sentiment Extremes

by WaveTrack International| December 1, 2016 | No Comments

If you’re feeling Bearish – Stop it now! Break bad habits

Isn’t it amazing to see how extremes in price activity ultimately expose the fragility of the human condition? The markets are a terrific teacher in training us to master ourselves, in an effort to conquer our whims and emotions that flood through the veins during times of price excess. There are degrees of excess which of course, translates itself into the fractal model of the Elliott Wave Principle. Major peaks like the dot.com highs of year 2000 or the sub-prime peak of 2007 are naturally exposing euphoric sentiment at much higher levels than say intermediate highs traded in 2011. Likewise, major lows are similarly graded, although we rely on sentiment models to help determine each rating.

Gold Forecast - 19th Jul 2016 - Result! 1st December 2016

Gold Forecast – 19th Jul 2016 – Result! 1st December 2016

It’s an ongoing, life-time process of self-development with the goal of withdrawing oneself from the capture of the herd instinct – trading in the crowd, which ordinarily turns bullish at highs and bearish at lows. It’s a difficult process to master – to sell when the herd is buying or is bullish, and to buy when the herd is selling or bearish. But once practised, amazing revelations are there for each of us to grasp onto. For example, the herd was bullish into gold and silver’s highs of last July/August even though this proved to be an important peak. Our Elliott Wave report at the time turned bearish because of two factors – Elliott Wave analysis and the bullish sentiment extremes of the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports. And so it comes as no surprise to read that some analysts, commentators are suddenly questioning gold and silver’s uptrends established earlier this year, just because prices are now considerably lower than they were 3-4 months ago.

The renowned gold bullion dealers Sharps Pixley (SP) are obviously not immune to the trials of self-development as they lead an article published Wednesday November 30th entitled ‘Gold’s 2016 Rally Was Built On Sand’. It states that physical precious metal demand was lacking in this year’s run higher, exposing the trends weakness. Oh, we lament! If this was really a concern, why not publish these facts at the peak in July/August – why wait ‘till now? Of course, we know why. Analysts are beginning to think about annual 2017 forecasts – some have already penned opinions that a rising US$ dollar and higher interest rates will keep precious metals from trending higher. We’ve seen a few reports already taking this line of thought so SP is not alone. But to the trained nose and with a little help from EW and sentiment statistics, an important low in gold and silver is not too far off.

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WaveTrack International is a financial price forecasting company dedicated to the Elliott Wave principle and work of the R.N. Elliott. Clients include Investment Banks, Pension Funds, Total/Absolute-Return/Hedge Funds, Sovereign Wealth Funds, Corporate and Market-Making/Trading institutions and informed individuals -- & just about anyone who is affected by directional price change.

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