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3 Reasons to watch out for Copper

by WaveTrack International| January 30, 2018 | No Comments

Copper – 2016 impulse uptrend concluding with ending-diagonal pattern!

It was exactly two-years ago that Copper prices were forging important lows at $4318 tonne. At the very same time the grand ‘RE-SYNCHRONISATION’ lows formed for developed and emerging markets. This major event was identified and documented in our monthly INSTITUTIONAL EW-NAVIGATOR REPORT and subsequent bi-weekly supplemental reports throughout 2016 onwards. It triggered what we termed as the 2nd PHASE of the ‘INFLATION-POP’. In Elliott Wave terminology this is called the next uptrend for primary wave C for major Emerging Markets & Commodities, including Copper.

Fast-forward to January/February 2018, Copper prices are approaching an interim terminal peak within the medium-term uptrend of Primary wave C which is labelled intermediate wave (1). This is the five wave impulse uptrend that began from the Feb.’16 low.

Copper – An Ending-Diagonal within Minor Wave v. Five

The fifth wave of wave (1)’s advance, labelled minor wave v. five began from the May ’17 low of 5463. Adhering to the fractal nature of financial markets, this fifth wave is also subdividing into a smaller five wave pattern. In this case a 1-2-3-4-5 pattern. Interestingly, minute wave 5 is itself unfolding into an ending/contracting-diagonal pattern, a wedge-shaped impulse sequence. Furthermore, this sequence itself is composed of five price-swings which began from last September’s low of 6366 – see fig #1.

Copper – 360 mins. chart by www.wavetrack.com

In Elliott Wave methodology, a five wave diagonal pattern only appears at either the beginning or the ending of an existing trend. Clearly, this one is an ending-type given Copper has been trending higher for two years. And so evidence of a diagonal pattern appearing now is a forewarning of an imminent change of direction.

Fib-Price-Ratios

However, the diagonal is not quite ready to complete just yet. It seems to require one additional upside attempt above December’s 3rd wave high of 7312. This is labelled as minuette wave [iii] to fulfil a terminal high for the 5th wave, minuette wave [v]. Our proprietary fib-price-ratios applied to fifth waves of a ‘contracting’ type diagonal propose wave [v] will unfold higher by a fib. 61.8% correlative ratio of wave [iii] which projects a final upside test to 7400+/-.

Conclusion

Our monthly EW-COMMODITIES OUTLOOK report is about to be published with Copper’s entire five wave impulse sequence shown unfolding from the Feb.’16 low along with cycles and its positive correlation with other Base Metals. It suggests that Copper and other base metals are forming important highs for the entire year, with multi-month corrective declines about to begin. That of course, contrasts to market consensus, but taking a contrarian stance at key junctures is what financial-forecasting is all about!

3 Reasons to watch out for Copper Prices

Naturally, should Copper form a high then turn lower as we expect, it will have far-reaching effects in many other asset classes too – 1. U.S. stocks are extremely elevated right now and could do with a bit of a wash-out dell-off to trim the excesses – 2. also, watch for ‘fake-out’ not ‘break-outs’ in precious metals and – 3. long-dated interest rates over the coming month.

Good luck and best wishes,
Peter Goodburn
WaveTrack International

Take advantage of WaveTrack’s COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2018 including Base Metals, Precious Metals, Energy and a special feature of Base and Precious Metal Miners. Subscribe here to our Elliott Wave Commodities Outlook.

WaveTrack’s Commodity Outlook 2018

Currencies & Fixed Income 2018 Video Series

by WaveTrack International| January 29, 2018 | No Comments

Currencies and Fixed Income 2018 Video Series | PART III/III / Elliott Wave @ its best

This latest installment of WaveTrack International’s Annual 2018 three part VIDEO SERIES takes an in-depth look at how Elliott Wave patterns and cycles translate across most of the major currencies & interest rates of the world – PART III, CURRENCIES & INTEREST RATES – 2018 & BEYOND.

Our latest Video/Report analyses over 55 charts and cycles highlighting major trends, reversal levels together with Fibonacci-Price-Ratio projection levels of the major currency pairs/crosses and interest rates of the U.S., Europe and Japan. Don’t hesitate. This is the most thoroughly researched, accurate ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS on the planet. We’ll be taking a look at currency trends over a 50+ year period and projecting these trends into the future. And if you want to see what the US$ Dollar looks like over a period of 350-years and U.S. interest rates over a period of 250+ years, then this latest ANNUAL 2018 ELLIOTT WAVE PRICE-FORECASTS & CYCLE PROJECTIONS will tell you.

US Dollar 2017 Recap

It was exactly 1-year ago, in January 2017 when the annual forecast wrote: This year’s most anticipated event is the changing trend for the US$ dollar against its G4+ counterparts. Over the last 7.8-year cycle period, the US$ dollar index has traded higher from the pre-financial-crisis lows to current levels but contained within a typical Elliott Wave, THREE price-swing pattern…This 7.8-year cycle upswing is about to complete, into Q1’17 then stage a reversal-signature that resumes the long-term downtrend. The dollar’s decline over the next several years will be massive, fueling a resurgence in commodity values and other assets classes in this 2nd phase of our ‘INFLATION-POP’ scenario.

It’s easy to forget just how prescient this forecast was because the US$ dollar has since declined so rapidly during the last year. It is now already embedded into our current reality – in other words, we’ve got used to it! But at the time, it was oh-so contrarian with consensus opinion heavily tilted towards a strengthening US$ dollar. Mainly because the Federal Reserve was expected to continue tightening monetary policy and a resurgent U.S. economy triggered by President Trump’s ‘America First’ programme. But all that was blown away during 2017. The US$ dollar index benchmark has since declined by -14.8% per cent – but why? Part of the reason has been a resurgent Euro which is the world’s second most traded currency unit. Yet, we believe the real reason behind the US$ dollar’s decline is the change in its alternating 7.8-year cycle.

Currencies and 7.8-Year Cycle Downtrend

Back in 2008, the dollar index formed a low at 70.70. Fast-forward another 7.8-years to late-2017, early 2017, the cycle alternates to form its next major peak. This of course, means the next 7.8-year cycle is now in a downwards direction from the US$ dollar. But what path is it likely to follow during this time period? No trend or even counter-trend trades in a straight-line! This annual report examines that path for the US$ dollar, but also how this relates to the Euro/US$, Stlg/US$, US$/Yen and many more currency pairs and crosses. And to place the 2018 forecasts into context, we’re examining long-term trends to see how they’ve interacted in the past, how they influence the future.

Furthermore, we also take a look at the net aggregated US$ dollar positioning against 8 currencies which offers a glimpse into sentiment extremes and what the immediate future holds for many of these trends. We expect to see a significant directional change of intermediate degree status into Q1 2018 which will have an effect on all currency pairs and crosses. Specific attention is also drawn to Commodity Currencies like the Aussie and Canadian dollar, together with Yen crosses against other majors. Our attention then turns to Emerging Market currencies, the Asian ADXY basket, but also some directional hints for the Korean Won, Singapore Dollar, Indian rupee, Taiwan Dollar, Thai Baht, Malaysian Ringgit, Indonesian Rupiah and the Philippine Peso. Our analysis will also include the Mexican Peso, US$/Rand, Brazilian Real, the Russian Rouble and China’s Renminbi – oh, I almost forget to mention Bitcoin!

Interest Rates – U.S. | Europe | Japan

Interest Rates are a big subject for 2018. Whilst the Federal Reserve has begun to withdraw from monetary stimulus over the last year with rate hikes a normal feature and expectation for 2018, it’s quite a different story with two other major central banks. The European Central Bank is continuing to exert its stimulus programme with continued bond purchases with no signs of withdrawal. Even though it acknowledges the Eurozone economy is in a strong recovery. The Bank of Japan has just reiterated its commitment in maintaining its own economic stimulus agenda whilst its key inflation measures remain benign. This dislocation is an intriguing one but there is some uniformity in the way long-dated interest rates are behaving.

One aspect worthy of mention is that despite U.S. stock markets reaching new record highs and a strong economic reading across many industrial sectors. Yet, the US10yr yields are relatively low by comparison! This annual 2018 report will offer some insights as to why this is happening whilst planning a definitive route for long-dated yields for this coming year. We’ll make comparisons with the benchmark European DE10yr yield and adding some cycle analysis before finalising with an outlook for the TIPS 10yr Inflation rate and Japanese 10yr yield forecast.

Only Twice a Year!

This new 2018 CURRENCY & INTEREST RATES VIDEO is like nothing you’ve seen anywhere else in the world. It’s unique to WaveTrack International, how we foresee trends developing through the lens of Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) and how its forecasts correlate with Cycles and Currencies, Interest Rates from around the world. It is only available twice a year!

We invite you to take this next part of our financial journey with us – video subscription details are below – just follow the links and we’ll see you soon!

Most sincerely,

Peter Goodburn
Founder and Chief Elliott Wave Analyst
WaveTrack International

The contents of this CURRENCIES & INTEREST RATES VIDEO include Elliott Wave analysis for:

Currencies:
• US$ index
• Euro/US$
• Stlg/US$
• US$/Yen
• US$/CHF
• AUD/US$
• NZD/US$
• US$/CAD
• Euro/Stlg
• Euro/Yen
• Asian ADXY
• US$/IDR
• US$/MXN
• US$/ZAR
• US$/BRL
• US$/RUR
• US$/CNY
• Bitcoin

Interest Rates:
• U.S. AAA+ 30-Year Corporate Bond Yields
• US30yr Yield
• US10yr Yield
• US10yr TIPS Break Even Inflation Rate
• DE10yr Yield
• JPY10yr Yield

CONTACT US NOW VIA EMAIL – SELECT YOUR PACKAGE

Single Video – $48.00* *(additional VAT may be added depending on your country of residence. Currently US, Canada, Asia have no added VAT but most European countries do) – PART II – CURRENCIES (55 charts 2 hours long) (Dec. ’17/Jan. ’18)
Triple Package offer – $96.00* (saving 33%) *(additional VAT may be added depending on your country of residence. Currently US, Canada, Asia have no added VAT but most European countries do)! – PART I – PART II – PART III (Dec. ’17 – Feb. ’18)

And the latest COMMODITIES video covers 67 charts and is 2 hour 5 mins long. click here to read more about the COMMODITIES video content

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BOVESPA – How to time the S&P 500 turn!

by WaveTrack International| January 23, 2018 | No Comments

U.S. stock indices are stretching ever higher whilst setting quite a few records into the end of 2017. Last year, it gained in each month, something never done before. And as for January 2018, it’s one of the longest runs in history without a -3% per cent correction!

We’re setting a few records in terms of Elliott Wave analysis and Fibonacci-Price-Ratios too! This is significantly evident in the way the S&P has run higher from last August’s low of 2415.75 (futures). This five wave impulse pattern is labelled as minuette wave [v]. The fifth wave within the larger 3rd uptrend that began from the June ’16 Brexit low. It started subdividing into a series of 1-2’s, three sequences in all prior to undergoing what we term as ‘price-expansion’ which defines the 3rd-of-3rd-of-3rd wave sequence.

Setting Fib-Price-Ratio Records!

There’s a high-occurrence statistic associated with impulse patterns that undergo several degrees of subdivision. This is where the 1-2-1-2-1 sequence is extended by a fib. 161.8% ratio in projecting the terminal high for the entire pattern through each degree of trend, i.e. to finish the entirety of minuette wave [v]. Consequently, this projected the exact high traded on December 4th 2017 at 2665.25. But the uptrend didn’t finish there, and this is why it’s setting some fib-price-ratio records too! It’s very rare for an index to extend beyond such measurements. The only occasion we’ve recorded a previous event was in the run-up to ending the great bull market uptrend of the 1990’s! So this current pattern will go into our archives!

What Next?

The next series of fib-price-ratio measurements extend the 3rd-of-3rd-of-3rd wave high traded at 2577.25 (Oct. 23rd) by a fib. 161.8% ratio which projects a terminal high at 2861.75+/-. We notice a fib-price-ratio convergence-matrix at the 2860.00+/- area from measuring December’s final impulse wave upswing and the minuette degree impulse from the June ’16 Brexit low, so there is good reason to think the index will complete and stage a reversal-signature at this upside area.

Bovespa

In order to verify an upside exhaustion for the S&P 500 like this, it must be corroborated by comparing the progress and pattern development of various complimentary, but different indices. One interesting proxy that might just assist in timing the turn for the S&P is Brazil’s Bovespa.

Bovespa Brasil – DAILY chart – Financial Forecasting by WaveTrack International

In this chart, you’ll notice a clean five wave impulse pattern unfolding higher from the Feb.’16 low of 37265.00 – see fig #1. There’s no record-setting gains or unique or rare fib-price-ratio’s here – plain and simple! The only complexity is the price-spike low traded in the 4th wave correction in May ’17. If the extremity of this is used, then a final 5th wave can unfold by a fib. 61.8% ratio of the 1st-3rd waves ending at 85668.00+/-. That’s not too far above current levels. And even nearer if the price-spike is filtered to its closing level – extending waves [i]-[iv] by a fib. 61.8% ratio would project a terminal high for wave [v] towards 82817.00+/-.

Conclusion

The Bovespa is approaching an important peak with a multi-month correction due to begin afterwards. That would pull prices significantly lower until mid-year. The exact timing of this correction can be used to help pinpoint the next peak for the S&P – and it’s not too far away anymore!

Don’t forget to subscribe to our bi-weekly reports for updated ELLIOTT WAVE forecasts on these indices and their next price developments!

Good luck and best wishes,

Peter Goodburn
WaveTrack International

PS: If you want to find out WaveTrack’s long-term trends for global financial STOCK INDICIES dont’t forget to check our latest STOCK INDICES video. Published only twice a year!