WaveTrack International

Elliott Wave Financial Price Forecasting

Announcement – Christmas/New Year Schedule

by m.tamosauskas| December 24, 2015 | No Comments

ChristmasWe’ll be taking the opportunity to rest the team a little during the following week, so this week’s  EW-Compass report is the last for the year – the next edition will be published on Wednesday 6th January.

 

But we’ll still be working during the interim period, collating all medium-term wave counts in preparation for the publication of our latest bi-annual video forecasts. The extent of tracking all four asset classes, so many contracts has expanded exponentially over the last few years, driven by the demand from you, our customers! This has necessitated creating all the Elliott Wave charts into a two-part series – Part I will focus on Stock Indices, Part II Commodities, Currencies & Interest Rates. Part I will be ready soon so watch out for another e-mail message from us during the next week! Part II will be created in January!
And so, wherever you are, whatever your faith, we hope that your Festivities and New Year will be joyous and successful – WaveTrack International

 

Category: Uncategorized

FEZ – SPDR Eurostoxx 50 ETF stages a reversal signature to the upside!

by m.tamosauskas| December 15, 2015 | 5 Comments

Last week we have been experimenting with the FEZ ETF which represents Eurostoxx 50 index. We found a near-perfect Elliott Wave structure and geometric Fib-Price-Ratio dimensions for a practice. As promised, now we are updating this chart with all annotations and explanation how to use our Fib-Price-Ratio methodology.  Enjoy!

151215_FEZ

Category: Elliott Wave, Elliott Wave Patterns, Elliott Wave Principle, Eurostoxx 50, fib-price-ratio, Fibonacci Trading, Financial Forecasting
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The hidden harmonic symmetry into the Elliott Wave pattern!

by m.tamosauskas| December 7, 2015 | 9 Comments

As we continue to update the myriad of different contracts within our ever-expanding portfolio in preparation for the release of annual 2016 forecasts, one new ETF has caught our attention. It is the ETF for the Eurostoxx 50 index and trades under the symbol FEZ. It has grossly underperformed the underlying index as all ETF’s do within a persistent declining phase because of the latent roll-overs etc. But somehow, this one has retained its near-perfect Elliott Wave structure and geometric Fib-Price-Ratio dimensions.

EuroStox151207

We would like to encourage you to train your eye spotting these powerful Fib-Price-Ratio and in this post we will leave annotations separate from the chart. Take a time and find most common Fibonacci ratios within a double zig zag pattern. We will update this chart during the next few days!

Category: Elliott Wave, Elliott Wave Charts, Elliott Wave Patterns, Elliott Wave Principle, Eurostoxx 50, fib-price-ratio, WaveTrack International
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Elliott Wave Pattern Precedes ECB Announcement

by WaveTrack International| December 4, 2015 | 8 Comments

Perfect Reaction Following ECB

Perfect Reaction Following ECB


Perfect Reaction Following ECB

Yesterday’s market reaction following the European Central Bank announcement was entirely predictable – no guessing required. Wednesday night’s update from the mid-week EW-Navigator supplement ahead of Thursday’s ECB meeting concluded…

‘…we expect the Eurostoxx 50 benchmark to decline by -5.4% per cent before resuming higher later. This probably suggests the ECB will either dilute its plan to extend its bond-buying programme or the market will be in some way disappointed with its tone’.

Contrary to consensus, this statement was made because a THREE WAVE ZIG ZAG pattern had just completed its advance from the mid-November low for the Eurostoxx 50 benchmark index. In this location, it is designated the SECOND sequence within a corrective EXPANDING FLAT decline, labelled intermediate wave (X). To complete the THIRD sequence, a decline of at least -5.4% was required. See original forecast from Wednesday’s report – fig #1. Downside targets are forecast to 3290.43-86.17+/-. These are derived where minor wave a. of the expanding flat is extended by a fib. 23.6% ratio and where the decline ends at the fib. 38.2% retracement level of the preceding advance.

EuroStoxx - 360 mins. chart

fig #1 – EuroStoxx – 360 mins.

This next chart illustrates a close-up view of the expanding flat and what happened after the ECB announcement – see fig #2. The decline represents the THIRD sequence of the EXPANDING FLAT, labelled minor wave c. It must unfold into a five wave pattern – original downside targets remain valid, but we’ve added to additional Fibonacci levels using a fib. 38.2% extension ratio, and 61.8% to 3267.27+/- and 3231.39+/- respectively. The 3231.39+/- level is also the fib. 50% retracement level of the preceding advance from the September low.

fig #2 - EuroStoxx - 30 mins.

fig #2 – EuroStoxx – 30 mins.

In order to find the exact low point, the fourth wave within minor wave c.’s decline must unfold prior to taking additional measurements.

Looking at the implications of this EXPANDING FLAT, we know that such a pattern is a counter-trend sequence within a prevailing, dominant, directional UPTREND. So once completed, the uptrend is expected to resume.

Don’t forget – our bi-weekly Elliott Wave Compass report features many short-term updates of various asset classes.
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Category: central banks, ECB, economy, Elliott Wave, Eurostoxx 50, Financial Forecasting, S&P 500, WaveTrack International

Lonmin – Is there a Future?

by WaveTrack International| November 26, 2015 | 3 Comments

Lonmin PLC (LSE: LMI)

Lonmin PLC (LSE: LMI)

IN THE NEWS!

The shareholder approval of Lonmin’s rights issue on the 19th November resulted in a sharp mark-down in the share price when trading opened in London the next day. From the previous evening’s level of 9.85, it plunged to 1.50 on the opening, later edging down to 1.12 on the 25th November.

The company has re-negotiated its funding from a consortium of 10 banks for its existing facility of US$540m to US$370m due in 2020. As of September ’15, Lonmin had net debt of US$185m.

So what next?

From an Elliott Wave perspective, the additional decline that followed the rights issue has created an entirely different dynamic. It changes what was previously a three wave (counter-trend) pattern unfolding from the all-time-high of 4400.00 to the Sep.’15 low of 14.50 into a five wave (trend) expanding-impulse pattern – see fig #1. That translates into two ongoing aspects – first, it eliminates the possibility of trading into new record highs – second, following the completion of a counter-trend upswing, it will later crash down again, into oblivion.

Lonmin - Platinum - Chart - Weekly

Lonmin – Platinum – Weekly

For the moment, basis Fibonacci-Price-Ratio (FPR) analysis, there is a risk that prices fall even further than they already have, meaning the five wave pattern remains incomplete. The next major support projects down to 0.42+/- pence, derived by extending primary waves 1-3 by a fib. 61.8% ratio.

Now that Pandora’s box has been opened, there are no guarantees, but upon a satisfactory completion of a five wave pattern, R.N.Elliott’s original postulation states that a counter-trend rally will follow and it will ultimately trade back towards ‘4th wave preceding degree’. This area is labeled primary wave 4 and it begins from the fib. 38.2% retracement level of 14.00+/- and extends to its approximate high at 43.00+/- which is the fib. 50% retracement level.

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Our bi-weekly Elliott Wave Compass report features many short-term updates of various asset classes.
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Category: Commodities, economy, Elliott Wave, Elliott Wave Charts, Financial Forecasting, Lonmin, Mines, Mining, Platinum, Precious Metals

Argentina Merval Index – Buy the Rumour, Sell the Fact! (Elliott Wave analysis)

by m.tamosauskas| November 24, 2015 | No Comments

01_Merval_151124a

Yesterday’s news that confirmed Argentina’s centre-right wing party had won a slender majority in its latest elections might be the beginning of a long-term positive development for the country having been isolated from international funding since the left-wing party came to power in 2003.

The incumbent President Mauricio Macri had earmarked various changes to the monetary system including a ‘unified exchange rate’ and removing currency controls, bringing down the 20% per cent inflation rate, regaining access to international capital markets and reducing government spending that is currently at 40% GDP. The markets took cheer in his mandate – Argentina’s benchmark Bonar 24 dollar bonds rose 1.55% to 102.69 cents per dollar – corresponding yields fell from 8.61% per cent to 8.37% per cent.

Whilst this offers an optimistic ‘long-view’ outlook for Argentina, a look at the Merval index suggests otherwise – in fact, from an Elliott Wave perspective, it would seem that this is a classic set-up of ‘buy the rumour, sell the fact’.

The entire activity of the Merval index from the September ’14 high of 12847.00 has all the characteristics of a developing expanding flat corrective pattern – see fig #1. The pattern is composed of three main price-swings, labelled a-b-c and assigned in minor degree as intermediate wave (4). Minor wave a. establishes the initial ‘price-extremity’ of the pattern between 12847.00 and 7452.00 whilst waves b. and c. must ultimately trade slightly beyond these levels – see tutorial inset chart. The pattern is also required to subdivide into a 3-3-5 sequence – minor wave a. fulfils this criteria by unfolding into a 3-wave zig zag. Minor wave b. has just done the same, advancing from 7452.00 into Monday’s election high at 15261.00.

The zig zag advance for minor wave b. has also unfolded where minute waves a & c measure equally, by a fib. 100% correlative ratio. This adds to its integrity. Furthermore, it has completed above wave a. close to and within the fib. 38.2% extension level of wave a. – another criteria satisfied.

Monday’s higher high and lower low closing also triggers a technical ‘key-reversal’ sell-signal. If further downside occurs during the next week or so, and reintegration follows below the dual peaks of 12847.00 and 12866.00, then minor wave c. declines will become a high-probability reality with ultimate downside targets to 6883.00+/- during the next several months.

Mauricio Macri has admitted that he is in no position to determine what condition Argentina’s financials are in…‘To know what we are inheriting, we have to be there [in power] – we still don’t really know’.

Category: Commodities, economy, Elliott Wave, Elliott Wave Charts, Elliott Wave Patterns, Elliott Wave Principle, fib-price-ratio, Fibonacci Trading, Financial Forecasting, Fixed Income, WaveTrack International
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US Dollar in Peril? – FXStreet Interview

by WaveTrack International| November 12, 2015 | No Comments

FXStreet: US$ Dollar In Peril

FXStreet Interview the reknown Dale Pinkert from FXStreet

In this exciting interview with Dale Pinkert – a Former Member of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange whose market forecasts have been aired on Financial Television and Radio station including CNBC Peter Goodburn elaborates his views on Elliott Wave, muses with Dale on the cyclicity behind historical market events and the US Dollar. Listen to this amazingly insightful interview here:

Thank you FXStreet and Dale Pinkert!

Don’t forget – our bi-weekly Elliott Wave Compass report features many short-term updates of various asset classes.
Successful trading with WaveTrack International
Subscribe to the EW-Compass here…

Category: Commodities, Currencies, Elliott Wave, Elliott Wave Patterns, Elliott Wave Principle, fib-price-ratio, forex, FX, USD, video, WaveTrack International
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How Fibonacci Price Ratios (FPR’s) Evolved

by WaveTrack International| November 10, 2015 | No Comments

How Fibonacci Price Ratios (FPR’s) Evolved

Trader’s World latest edition features Fibonacci Price Ratios

Trader’s World magazine has just published another of Peter Goodburn’s Elliott Wave articles in its latest #61st edition and you can see it absolutely FREE in cooperation between WaveTrack International and Trader’s World editor Larry Jacobs.

We’ve interacted with many of you, our members and subscribers over the last few months on the subject of overlaying Fibonacci-price-ratios to the Elliott Wave counts we publish. As Peter commented in this latest article ‘ I rather think of ratio and proportion and pattern and form as the two sides of the same coin – one cannot exist without the other – neither is dependent, independent but co-exist in interdependency. Together they increase the probability of correct forecasting exponentially. Some do degrade and seemingly run short, but this is by far a minority, something a good strategy can take care of’.

The article is an extract from a larger, as yet, unpublished work that Peter wrote back in 2012 as part of the up-coming WaveSearch Tutorials. It begins with some interesting history about R.N.Elliott’s introduction to the Natural Laws of science & metaphysics by Charles J. Collins who sponsored his publications of ‘The Wave Principle’ in a series of articles for the Financial World magazine in 1939.

Later, it follows one of Peter’s several successful ‘long-range’ forecasts – this one, for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), published in early 2004 and how his specific methodology and application of FPR’s captured the Dow’s upsurge into the October 2007 highs, and the subsequent collapse during the Lehman crisis that formed lows in 2009.

For those of you fascinated by the geometric symmetry found hiding within the evolving nature of price activity, this is a must read! You can view it immediately by visiting: www.tradersworld.com

Just turn to page 49 to view!

Sincerely,
WaveTrack’s Support Team

Category: Dow Jones 30, Elliott Wave, Elliott Wave Patterns, Elliott Wave Principle, fib-price-ratio, Fibonacci Trading, Financial Forecasting, Ralph Nelson Elliott, trading

EURO vs. USD – Success Pattern of the Month

by WaveTrack International| October 30, 2015 | No Comments

SUCCESS! - Pattern of the Month - EUR vs. USD

SUCCESS! – Pattern of the Month – EUR vs. USD

A very impressive pattern sequence that we identified this month is shown for the Euro/US$ (published in WaveTrack’s Elliott Wave Compass report). By mid-October, the Euro had already advanced more than three cents from its late-September low and was threatening the mid-September high of 1.1461. Conventional technical analysis at this point might have implied the possibility of upside acceleration once the 1.1461 high would be broken. But our Elliott Wave analysis, based on proprietary fib-price-ratio measurements, helped to almost pinpoint the achieved high and forewarn of an accelerative decline.

Track Record: Forecast - 14th October 2015

Forecast – EUR vs. USD – 14th October 2015

The reasoning behind it was based on a thorough examination of the price action of the last eight weeks and, equally important, of the last several months. When looking back to the May ’15 high, we were able to identify a three price-swing decline into the July low followed by a three price-swing advance into the August high. Basis the preceding (larger) five wave advance into the May high, it was clear (for an Elliottician) that this 3-3 sequence would have to be followed by a downswing. Moreover, as the correction following the impulse to 1.1468 was in a 2nd wave position, it was also clear the downswing would have to take the shape of an impulse decline (because a 3-3-3 can only occur as part of a 3-3-3-3-3 triangle – and this can happen only in a 4th wave).

RESULT! EUR vs. USD price development as per 28th October 2015

RESULT! EUR vs. USD price development as per 28th October 2015

Thus, we were ready to pull the trigger by mid-October when the Euro was attacking the 1.1461 high. Measured targets defined the 1.1450-1.1517 zone as a highly probable reversal area. Look how the Euro reacted to the predetermined fib-price resistance levels! It reversed from the 1.1496 high and almost instantly took up so much downside momentum that after a couple of days it was clear something big had occurred! Under Elliott Wave theory, it was clear that the Euro had now entered the 3rd wave within the five wave decline from 1.1712; and this five wave decline was the finalising leg of the previously described 3-3 sequence. What to expect next is shown on the chart – enjoy the ride into lower lows!

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Category: Currencies, Elliott Wave, Elliott Wave Charts, Elliott Wave Patterns, Elliott Wave Principle, Euro / US$, fib-price-ratio, Fibonacci Trading, Financial Forecasting, forex, FX, WaveTrack International

Final decline for the CRB-Cash Index (Fibonacci-Price-Ratio [FPR] Tutorial)

by m.tamosauskas| October 25, 2015 | No Comments

Despite some great percentage gains in commodities since prices formed lows last August, the subsequent advances have mostly traded higher into Elliott Wave counter-trend patterns. This is especially evident in the CRB-Cash index. This is a proxy for many of its components including base metals and energy contracts like crude oil, and whilst we expect an imminent completion of the entire declines that began from the year-2011 highs, one additional but final sell-off now seems inevitable.

The examination of this final stage of declines for the CRB-Cash index has also revealed some archetypal Elliott Wave patterning and adherence to Fibonacci-Price-Ratios – it therefore makes an excellent ‘real-time’ study of price development according to two of the Elliott Wave Principle’s (EWP’s) most important aspects, that of ‘structure’ and ‘dimension’.

01_crb151025b

The CRB-Cash index staged a counter-trend upswing from the March ’15 low of 407.21 ending into the May high at 439.00. Its structural composition has unfolded into a typical three price-swing sequence, the definition of an EW zig zag pattern. Furthermore, dimension is evident applying Fib-Price-Ratio studies – extending wave a (ending at the f phi symbol) by a fib. 61.8% ratio projects the high for wave c of the pattern to within a single point of its actual conclusion at 439.00.

The following decline extends the overall five wave impulse decline in progress from the April ’14 high of 569.70. This is labelled a 5th wave, designated minor wave v. five and it must develop with a five wave component labelled 1–2–3–4–5 and assigned in minute degree. Its downward progress has adhered to several typical characteristics of a developing five wave expanding-impulse pattern. First, the ‘rule of alternation’ where waves 2 and 4 differ in their overall structure – wave 2 unfolds into a complex ‘expanding flat’ whilst wave 4 unfolds into a simple ‘zig zag’. Wave 3 visibly ‘expands’ the price action and is much larger than wave 1 – it adheres to Elliott’s concept that third waves are commonly the largest but never the shortest in the pattern. Wave 3 subdivides into a perfectly formed five wave structure ending into the August low at 382.09.

  • Wave 4 unfolds into a symmetrically formed three wave zig zag pattern. Extending wave [a] by a fib. 61.8% ratio projects a terminal high for wave [c] to within a point-and-a-half of the actual level traded at 409.48.
  • Dimensionally, wave 2 is a fib. 76.4% retracement of wave 1 – wave 4 is a fib. 50% retracement of waves 1–3.

The projection for a final fifth wave decline, labelled minute wave 5 that began from 409.48 is the element where EW Rules & Guidelines are practiced in the real world, real-time. To determine the amplitude of wave 5, two common fib-price-ratios are used. These are selected over-and-above others because of the depth of the fourth wave to 409.48.

  • The first is where a Fibonacci ‘extension’ ratio is used measuring waves 1–4 and extending this by fib. 161.8% to project the low for wave 5 to 365.86+/-.
  • Second, a Fibonacci ‘correlative’ ratio taking waves 1–3 (= 100%) and multiplying this by a fib. 61.8% ratio for the measurement of wave 5 to 375.80+/-.

And so we can see that from a combination of structure/form and dimension/symmetry, a viable determination of ‘trend’ and ‘amplitude’ can be made. Hope this was helpful, if you enjoined – you can find more EW tutorials in our website.

Category: Commodities, CRB, Elliott Wave, Elliott Wave Charts, Elliott Wave Patterns, Elliott Wave Principle, fib-price-ratio, Fibonacci Trading, Financial Forecasting, WaveTrack International
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WaveTrack International is a financial price forecasting company dedicated to the Elliott Wave principle and work of the R.N. Elliott. Clients include Investment Banks, Pension Funds, Total/Absolute-Return/Hedge Funds, Sovereign Wealth Funds, Corporate and Market-Making/Trading institutions and informed individuals -- & just about anyone who is affected by directional price change.

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