Currencies + Interest Rates Video Outlook 2022 | PART III/III

by WaveTrack International| March 1, 2022 | No Comments

Currencies + Interest Rates Video Outlook 2022 | PART III/III

Currencies – US$ Dollar Index Approaching 14-Month Corrective Upside Target – Next Declines Begin Multi-Year Downtrend – US$ Dollar Devaluation Ahead – Loss of Confidence as Reserve Currency – G10 Currency Pairs Begin New Uptrends Due to US$ Weakness – Commodity Currencies Bullish Despite Underlying Commodity Correction – Asian ADXY Currencies Begin New Uptrends – U.S. Long-Dated Interest Rates Form Important Highs – Begin Multi-Month Corrective Downswings – Shorter-Dated Yields Mixed/Trending Higher But Mature – Flattening Continues – European Long-Dated Interest Rates Hit Tops – Downside Corrections – Flattening Curve – Italy/Australia/Japan All Confirm Corrective Declines Ahead – Inflationary Pressures Ease/Decline

INCLUDES ANALYSIS ON MAJOR US$ DOLLAR PAIRS/CROSSES – ASIAN/EM CURRENCIES – MEDIUM-TERM CYCLES – LONG-DATED YIELDS US/EUROPE/ITALY/AUSTRALIA/JAPAN + MANY SPREADS

Currencies EW-Forecasts for 2022

The US$ dollar index is engaged in a 15.6-year to max. 16-year cycle that connects troughs-to-troughs or lows-to-lows over the last several decades going back to the 1960’s – see fig’s #227 & #229 in the Currencies and Interest Rates report. The corresponding peaks are ‘centrally translated’, a cycle term we use to describe the time-interval that marks the half-way point of the full cycle period, i.e. half of 15.6-years is 7.8-years. But it’s more than that – centrally translated actually means dividing the 15.6-year interval in half so that there are approximately equal periods of upward/rising dollar strength versus downward/declining weakness.

The 15.6-year and 16-year cycles both project the US$ dollar lower during the next several years, into lows due around 2024-27. The Elliott Wave modelling provides some idea of the amplitude of this decline.

Currenies + Crypto-Currencies

Bitcoin’s long-term uptrend remains in progress from its inception trade of $0.08 back in 2010 – ultimate upside targets during next several years towards 295.400+/-. A trading-range triangle is continuing to develop April ’21 high of 64858.10 with another upswing during next months – Review Daily Bitcoin forecast – Fig #326. Ethereum set to outperform Bitcoin during next few years basis Ethereum/Bitcoin Ratio widening from 0.07127 out to 0.45000+/-.

Fig #326 – Bitcoin – Daily Elliott Wave Forecast by WaveTrack International

Currencies – The Next 6-8 Months

Once the US$ dollar index ends last year’s correction, it then begins a new downtrend, resuming primary wave 3 as minor wave iii. three within intermediate wave (3). From an Elliott Wave standpoint, that evokes an accelerative 3rd-of-3rd wave decline which will be devastating for the dollar. What could trigger such a decline?

The most probable driver is rising costs and inflationary pressures. Whilst we expect a pause in inflationary pressures this year, central banks are ‘behind-the-curve’, are late in responding to the last year’s rising inflationary pressures. They are ready to hike interest rates, borrowing costs at a time when those very inflationary measures are about to turn down for 6-8 months. However, the Federal Reserve in particular, is panicking.
If they begin hiking/tightening at a time when long-dated yields are declining because of an economic correction, then an unwinding of the inflation-trade positioning would see the dollar decline for the remainder of this year. And in 2023, continuing to trend lower because deflating the dollar is the only way out for the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve to lessen its dollar payment obligations.

Highlights – Interest Rates

The 60-year cycle in Corporate AAA Bond Yields formed a major low in July 2016 which ordinarily translates into a new sustained half-cycle uptrend of 30+/- years – but the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic has forced more monetary accommodation from central banks, prolonging the previous 30-year cycle downtrend even longer – but the March ’20 lows are finally secure, confirming a new 30+ year uptrend for interest rates has begun.

Inflation – U.S. CPI is running at 40-year highs at 7.5% per cent. However, this is perfectly in-line with our long-term ‘Inflation-Pop’ cycle that peaks around 2024-27. CPI is completing a five wave impulse uptrend from the March ’20 pandemic low indicating a pause in the in inflationary pressures for the remainder of this year. US10yr Real Yields have begun to trend higher from last year’s low of -1.190%. Whilst the outlook continues rising inflationary pressures, a shorter-term correction is due to begin. US10yr TIPS also trending higher over the medium/long-term although a dip shorter-term. US10yr Breakeven Inflation Rate is forecast lower during next several months from 2.493 to 1.723+/- again indicating a pause in inflation expectations. The U.S. Fed Funds rate is currently at the 0.00-0.25% per cent band but is pricing-in several rate hikes this year as the Federal Reserve change to a tightening policy.

This is WaveTrack’s most comprehensive Currencies and Interest Rates Video Outlook to date. Check out the table of contents below and if you are trading Currencies – don’t miss it!

We invite you to take this next step in our financial journey with us – video subscription details are below – just follow the links and we’ll see you soon!

Most sincerely,

Peter Goodburn
Founder and Chief Elliott Wave Analyst
WaveTrack International

What you get!

Contents: 150 charts | VIDEO DURATION: nearly 3 hours 30 mins.
The contents of this CURRENCIES & INTEREST RATES VIDEO include Elliott Wave analysis for:

Currencies (101 charts):
• US$ Index + Cycles
• Euro/US$ + Cycles
• Stlg/US$
• US$/Yen
• US$/CHF
• US$/NOK
• US$/SEK
• AUD/US$
• US$/CAD
• NZD/US$
• Euro/Stlg
• Euro/NOK
• Euro/Yen
• Euro/CNY
• Stlg/YEN
• Stlg/NOK
• Stlg/ZAR
• AUD/YEN
• AUD/Renminbi
• AUD/NZD
• Asian ADXY
• US$/Renminbi
• US$/KRW
• US$/SGD
• US$/INR
• US$/TWD
• USD/THB
• US$/MYR
• US$/IDR
• US$/PHP
• USD/BRL
• USD/RUB
• US$/ZAR
• US$/MXN
• US$/TRY
• US$/PLZ
• Bitcoin
• Ethereum

Interest Rates (49 charts):
• US CPI
• US PCE
• US10yr Real Yield
• US30yr Yield + Cycles
• US10yr Yield + Cycles
• US5yr Yield
• US2yr Yield
• US2yr-10yr Yield Spread
• US10yr-30yr Yield Spread
• 3mth EuroDollar-US10yr Yield Spread
• Comparison US10-DE10yr vs S&P 500
• US10yr TIPS Break Even Inflation Rate
• US10-DE10yr Yield Spread
• DE10yr Yield
• ITY10yr Yield
• Italy10-DE10yr Yield Spread
• Australia 10yr Yield
• Japan 10yr Yield

How to buy the Currencies + Interest Rates Video Outlook 2022

Simply contact us @ services@wavetrack.com to buy the CURRENCIES + INTEREST RATES Video Outlook 2022 for USD 48.00 (+ VAT where applicable) or alternatively our Triple Video Offer for USD 96.00 (+ VAT where applicable) – Review the content of WaveTrack Stock Indices Video PART I here and the Commodities Video PART II here.

Each video runs for at least up to 2 hours and it’s packed with SPECIFIC Elliott Wave price-forecasts (the Stock Indices Video is 2 hour 10 mins long!).

*(additional VAT may be added depending on your country – currently US, Canada, Asia have no added VAT but most European countries do)

We’re sure you’ll reap the benefits – don’t forget to contact us with any Elliott Wave questions – Peter is always keen to hear you views, queries and comments.

Visit us @ www.wavetrack.com

Category: ADXY Index, Bitcoin, Currencies, Cycles, Elliott Wave, EUR vs CHF, EUR/USD, EURUSD, Fibonacci Trading, FX, GBP/AUD, GBP/USD, STLG/AUD, Stlg/US$, STLG/USD, STLG/YEN, STLG/ZAR, US Dollar Index (DXY) (USDX), US$ Index, US-Dollar Index, USD/CNY, USD/IDR, USD/INR, USD/MXN, USD/SGD, USD/THB, USD/YEN, USD/ZAR, video

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Currencies + Interest Rates Video Outlook 2022 | PART III/III