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Elliott Wave Financial Price Forecasting

3 Reasons to watch out for Copper

by WaveTrack International| January 30, 2018 | No Comments

Copper – 2016 impulse uptrend concluding with ending-diagonal pattern!

It was exactly two-years ago that Copper prices were forging important lows at $4318 tonne. At the very same time the grand ‘RE-SYNCHRONISATION’ lows formed for developed and emerging markets. This major event was identified and documented in our monthly INSTITUTIONAL EW-NAVIGATOR REPORT and subsequent bi-weekly supplemental reports throughout 2016 onwards. It triggered what we termed as the 2nd PHASE of the ‘INFLATION-POP’. In Elliott Wave terminology this is called the next uptrend for primary wave C for major Emerging Markets & Commodities, including Copper.

Fast-forward to January/February 2018, Copper prices are approaching an interim terminal peak within the medium-term uptrend of Primary wave C which is labelled intermediate wave (1). This is the five wave impulse uptrend that began from the Feb.’16 low.

Copper – An Ending-Diagonal within Minor Wave v. Five

The fifth wave of wave (1)’s advance, labelled minor wave v. five began from the May ’17 low of 5463. Adhering to the fractal nature of financial markets, this fifth wave is also subdividing into a smaller five wave pattern. In this case a 1-2-3-4-5 pattern. Interestingly, minute wave 5 is itself unfolding into an ending/contracting-diagonal pattern, a wedge-shaped impulse sequence. Furthermore, this sequence itself is composed of five price-swings which began from last September’s low of 6366 – see fig #1.

Copper - 360 mins. chart by www.wavetrack.com

Copper – 360 mins. chart by www.wavetrack.com

In Elliott Wave methodology, a five wave diagonal pattern only appears at either the beginning or the ending of an existing trend. Clearly, this one is an ending-type given Copper has been trending higher for two years. And so evidence of a diagonal pattern appearing now is a forewarning of an imminent change of direction.

Fib-Price-Ratios

However, the diagonal is not quite ready to complete just yet. It seems to require one additional upside attempt above December’s 3rd wave high of 7312. This is labelled as minuette wave [iii] to fulfil a terminal high for the 5th wave, minuette wave [v]. Our proprietary fib-price-ratios applied to fifth waves of a ‘contracting’ type diagonal propose wave [v] will unfold higher by a fib. 61.8% correlative ratio of wave [iii] which projects a final upside test to 7400+/-.

Conclusion

Our monthly EW-COMMODITIES OUTLOOK report is about to be published with Copper’s entire five wave impulse sequence shown unfolding from the Feb.’16 low along with cycles and its positive correlation with other Base Metals. It suggests that Copper and other base metals are forming important highs for the entire year, with multi-month corrective declines about to begin. That of course, contrasts to market consensus, but taking a contrarian stance at key junctures is what financial-forecasting is all about!

3 Reasons to watch out for Copper Prices

Naturally, should Copper form a high then turn lower as we expect, it will have far-reaching effects in many other asset classes too – 1. U.S. stocks are extremely elevated right now and could do with a bit of a wash-out dell-off to trim the excesses – 2. also, watch for ‘fake-out’ not ‘break-outs’ in precious metals and – 3. long-dated interest rates over the coming month.

Good luck and best wishes,
Peter Goodburn
WaveTrack International

Take advantage of WaveTrack’s COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2018 including Base Metals, Precious Metals, Energy and a special feature of Base and Precious Metal Miners. Subscribe here to our Elliott Wave Commodities Outlook.

Commodity Outlook 2018 featuring Copper and more

WaveTrack’s Commodity Outlook 2018

Category: Copper, Elliott Wave, Fibonacci-Price-Ratio, Gold, Interest Rates, Precious Metals, S&P 500

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WaveTrack International is a financial price forecasting company dedicated to the Elliott Wave principle and work of the R.N. Elliott. Clients include Investment Banks, Pension Funds, Total/Absolute-Return/Hedge Funds, Sovereign Wealth Funds, Corporate and Market-Making/Trading institutions and informed individuals -- & just about anyone who is affected by directional price change.

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