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Russia RTS Index – Decline Underway?

by WaveTrack International| October 3, 2019 | No Comments

Russia RTS Index – Decline Underway Towards 1171.00+/- but Downside Risk to 990.00+/-

Two Elliott Wave pattern developments dominate the short-term picture over the next few months – both confer a decline to minimum levels of 1171.00+/- but there is also a heightened downside risk of a sustained decline towards 990.00+/- as the concluding sequence of an a-b-c running flat pattern that began from the Jan.’17 high. The medium-term outlook remains very bullish with outperformance forecast during the next few years.

The Russia RTS is a favourite of ours, mainly because it fits the pattern schematic of the A-B-C ‘Inflation-Pop’ from its financial-crisis low of 493.00 but also because its upside potential as primary wave C is huge during the next several years.

Wave C’s uptrend must ultimately develop into a five wave impulse pattern, labelled (1)-(2)-(3)-(4)-(5). A 2nd wave correction as a subdivision within intermediate wave (3) began from the Jan.’17 high of 1197.00. It was originally identified as completing an a-b-c running flat pattern into the Dec.’18 low of 1033.00, the same time that U.S. indices, including the S&P 500 ended their corresponding expanding flat patterns.

But the following advance into the July ’19 high of 1414.00 is problematic. It’s difficult to identify this upswing as unfolding into a five wave impulse pattern. However, this irregularity in identification opens the way for two developing scenarios. Although, both confer a more immediate short-term decline testing levels towards 1171.00+/-.

Russia RTS Index – Count #1

Count #1 – the Dec.’18 advance from 1033.00 to July’s high of 1414.00 unfolded into a five wave sequence. A counter-trend corrective downswing is currently engaged, targeting levels towards 1171.00+/-. See fig #1.

Russia RTS Index - Daily - Elliott Wave Financial Forecasting by Peter Goodburn, WaveTrack International - www.wavetrack.com

Russia RTS Index – Daily – Financial Forecasting by WaveTrack International

Russia RTS Index – Count #2

Count #2 – this scenario depicts the continuation of the a-b-c running flat pattern that began the corrective downswing from the Jan.’17 high of 1197.00. Wave b has unfolded higher into a multi-year double zig zag pattern ending last July at 1414.00 – wave c must now develop lower into a five wave impulse pattern with an ultimate task or revisiting the 2017 low of 959.00+/-. Fib-price-ratio targets are towards 990.00+/-. See fig #2.

Russia RTS Index - Daily - Count #2- Financial Forecasting by WaveTrack International | Peter Goodburn | www.wavetrack.com ElliottWave @ its best!

Russia RTS Index – Daily – Count #2 – Financial Forecasting by WaveTrack International

Conclusion

The Russia RTS’s pattern development from its June ’17 low in incredibly complex. Hence, two ongoing scenarios. But when juxtaposed to each other, both confer a minimum downside risk towards 1171.00+/-. Most importantly, this is in alignment with expectations of deeper corrective declines emerging from U.S./European indices. A time horizon is into the Jan/Feb.’20 period.

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WaveTrack International is a financial price forecasting company dedicated to the Elliott Wave principle and work of the R.N. Elliott. Clients include Investment Banks, Pension Funds, Total/Absolute-Return/Hedge Funds, Sovereign Wealth Funds, Corporate and Market-Making/Trading institutions and informed individuals -- & just about anyone who is affected by directional price change.

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