WaveTrack International

Elliott Wave Financial Price Forecasting

NYSE Composite Index + Wilshire 5000

by WaveTrack International| February 20, 2019 | 15 Comments

NYSE Composite Index + Wilshire 5000 – December’s Five Wave Uptrend Tests Upside Targets – Preparing for Counter-Trend Downswing!!

The following is an extract from our Institutional Stock Index Report published Thursday January 17th 2019

  • December’s rally in the NYSE Composite and Wilshire 5000 indices are both unfolding into a five wave ‘expanding-impulse’ patterns. This means the December low ended 2018’s correction ahead of the S&P 500 and Nikkei. Shorter-term, this impulse pattern remains incomplete with upside targets around +11% per cent higher. This is directly comparable to the Nikkei’s +7% upswing basis the performance ratio of 1:1.7. Only when completed do we expect to see the S&P 500 and Nikkei begin one additional and final decline for the diagonal pattern. The NYSE Composite and Wilshire 5000 indices synchronise as they begin a 2nd wave correction
  • Wednesday’s mid-week Elliott Wave Navigator Supplemental report commented that two peripheral U.S. indices, the NYSE Composite and Wilshire 5000 indices were exhibiting characteristic qualities of ‘price-expansion’ since pushing higher from the secondary lows of early-January. This is typically 3rd wave activity within an uptrend – see fig #1.

    NYSE Composite Index + Wilshire 5000 - Elliott Wave Track Record by WaveTrack International

    NYSE Composite Index + Wilshire 5000 – Elliott Wave Track Record by WaveTrack International

    These advances began with a step-like movement of three price-swings which can easily be identifiably mistaken as a three wave correction within an existing downtrend. But these are a bullish 1-2-1 sequence ahead of a 3rd-of-3rd price advance which has now unfolded to current levels. To complete the entire five wave pattern, it must continue as a 4-5-4-5 sequence – we’ve extending the 1-2-1 by a fib. 161.8% ratio which projects towards 12640.00+/- for the NYSE Comp. index and 29000.00+/- for the Wilshire 5000 Comp. index.

    Conclusion

    There’s been much talk since early-January of a new secular-bear downtrend beginning from October’s highs – we have consistently shown various economic data with Elliott Wave overlays how this is an erroneous call – see annual 2019 report.

    STOCK INDICES VIDEO OUTLOOK 2019

    If the NYSE Composite and Wilshire 5000 indices unfold over the next couple of weeks as we show here, then, the secular-bull uptrend will be confirmed.

    Wednesday 20th February Update

    December’s Five Wave Uptrend Tests Upside Targets – Preparing for Counter-Trend Downswing!! See fig #2.

    http://blog.wavetrack.com/stock-index-vNYSE Composite Index +NYSE Composite Index + Wilshire 5000 - Result! 20th February 2019 Wilshire 5000ideo-2019/

    NYSE Composite Index + Wilshire 5000 – Result! 20th February 2019

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    Comments

    • TAJ

      Does that mean that SP500/Dow/Nasdaq/Russell are also in wave 1’s or are they all doing something different as per Compass report?

      • Very good question. We currently don’t have a definitive answer for that just yet. December’s advance is either ending a five wave upswing as minute wave a within a developing zig zag within the larger triangle from Jan. ‘18’s high, or ending minor wave i. one within the next phase of the larger uptrend. But both counts have the same outlook over the next few months. More discussion on this in tonight’s report.

        • TAJ

          Enjoying reading this weeks report as I type. Looking at NYSE Composite and reckon you might be calling a wave 5 top too early and in fact may be only end of wave 3….but hey….we all can have different opinions and as always time will reveal all. https://www.tradingview.com/x/S5WWCmgC/

          • Hello TAJ, Thanks for your comments and your excellent chart!…yes, we can have differing wave counts and that’s why non-EW analysts and fund managers have a tough time accepting the methodology as being credible. Elliott Wave is a subtle form of analysis, unmatched by anything else but ‘extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence’ which is why we’ve created specific guidelines that follow a sequential analytical logic for each wave count. If these guidelines are adhered to, we should come up with the same wave counts over-and-over again! In the case for NYSE Composite, the difference in our two interpretations comes after the 3rd-of-3rd wave ends at 12164.70 (Jan. 18th high)…i’ve labelled the next sequences as a 4-5-4-5 and you have labelled the next advance from 11926.80 as a five wave impulse pattern, the fifth wave within the larger third. So let’s examine that more closely and use your nomenclature… (1)-(2)-(3)-(4)-(5)…first of all, this labels wave (5) as the ‘extended’ wave ‘cos it’s the largest impulse sequence – now statistically, this is a 3/100 probability (or thereabouts), very rare…it doesn’t mean it
            can’t be, but you’re playing against the odds…this should only be contemplated if there really is no other explanation or wave count (and there is!)…wave (5) also contains its own fifth wave extension, so, an extension within an extension…again, the probability is diminishing but not impossible…when I see your labelling between (1) and (3), you ignore a correction from 12350.54 to 12268.57 and instead subsume this into wave (3)…that doesn’t look right and it causes you to then adopt the fifth extension plan…now if there is still doubt, it’s a good idea to take a
            comparative look at other indices, 10-12 should be enough…look at European
            indices, Asia etc. to see what rhythm they have…for example, the Nikkei has just ended a ‘perfect’ upward correction from its December lows…a double zig zag – extending the first by a fib. 61.8% ratio projects to today’s high!…that’s just ne…eventually, you tune in to the overall rhythm and find strong correlations to support the wave count…one last thing, I use fib-price-ratios extensively because these define guidelines for the limits of each wave pattern and sequence…i notice you use a fib. 3.618 ratio…question, how often can you predict an outcome using this ratio?…I don’t need to use anything beyond 161.8% for every pattern that exists…nature
            doesn’t have anything beyond 161.8% because it’s the inverse of the golden-section, which controls the vibrationary sphere of expansion/contraction…yes, all this is a lot of hard work, but it’s worth it! – I’ll try my best to create some tutorials to better explain the logic of applying the process I’ve explained here…until then, I wish you all the very best, and thank you once again for sharing your chart too!…Peter.

            • Praveen Vishnu Shamain

              Dear Mr. Peter,

              Extraordinary reply. You are the master.

              I am an Electronics Engineer by qualification and I am very good in Maths and analytics. When I tried to learn EW, I found the most basics of EW – identifying the waves, was highly subjective. I gave up.

              I could not identify, which correction(s) to ignore / which rise to consider, for numbering the waves. Since, I was a failure in identifying the waves only, I gave up.

              For example, in the above discussion, “TAJ” presented his wavecounts and you identified that correction from 12350.54 to 12268.57 was ignored. What happened to “TAJ” happens with every other EW guy, who wants to learn the subject.

              So, I have a request for you.

              Whenever, your time permits, please write a tutorial on the basics of EW – how to count the waves and label them correctly. I am sure that would help generations to come.

              Thanks in advance.

              With Regards,
              Praveen Vishnu Shamain
              INDIA

            • Hi Praveen Vishnu Shamain, So interesting that you’re an electronic engineer and good at maths…I was the slowest at maths in my class so I bow to respect!

              Thank you too for sharing your own thoughts on your experiences of wave counting and its difficulties. I understand this well – time is one of those commodities I’m very short of, but realise the importance of creating some tutorials to highlight an ordered approach and procedure to work the methodology. This can be done, and it does exist, but requires some thought.One of the conclusions I’ve come to over the years is that most practitioners, including the pros’ have lost the essence of the wave principle because they are too concerned about labelling the waves, the components when they should be concentrating on what pattern is forming – first and foremost, THINK PATTERN!!

              A good familiarity with Platonic solids, the pattern forms, its angles and incumbent Fibonacci ratios is a good place to start. Then move on to reading as much as you can about the golden-ratio 0.618/161.8 then read from R.N. Elliott’s reading list, it includes the book by Jay Hambridge called Dynamic Symmetry…wonderful!!

              When you begin to understand how Nature’s rhythm vibrates, and how these form patterns, you will see Elliott Wave in a different light. The next task would be to practice the fib-price-ratios specific to each of Elliott’s patterns.

              Once that is understood, you then have a logical procedure to apply the theory. This is the basis of how you begin to differentiate between a valid and an erroneous wave count, through a logical elimination process. This concept eliminates a large chunk of subjectivity.

              When anomalies turn up, or more uncommon waves develop, they are rare occurrences so when 1st wave extensions unfold, or 5th’s for example, they’re much easier to identify because you’ve already applied a more logical procedure beforehand.

              So thank you for prompting me in this way, I will for sure, one day, get around to typing up a manual!! Very best wishes, Peter

            • Praveen Vishnu Shamain

              Thank you.

            • TAJ

              The reply may have been “extraordinary”, Praveen, but in this case I was right and Peter was wrong. Never put too much faith in “masters” as sooner or later you will be disappointed. I still enjoy WaveTrack’s and Peter’s analysis.

            • Praveen Vishnu Shamain

              Thanks, TAJ.

              In my reply itself, I had clearly mentioned that I myself had failed in identifying the start/end points of waves and I gave up. So, I am a novice.

              I admired the “extraordinarily’ detailed reply by Mr. Peter and he deserved it. Whether his count was correct or not is a different thing, but he was willing to share ‘his’ knowledge with anonymous/unknown people (I am from India !) like me. That was incredible, wasn’t it? BTW, he is running a paid service and he also has limitations in sharing ‘free’ analysis.

              Mr. Peter is one of the the best in this business and another analyst who I admire most in this field is Mr. Avi Gilburt. I only follow these 2 masters.

              TAJ, can you please share your wave analysis on NIFTY50 (INDIA) – post 2008 and post 2016.

              Sincerely,

            • TAJ

              I also enjoy Peter’s work, Praveen, and I admire the fact that he puts himself out there week after week sharing his thoughts and I even sometimes subscribe to his compass report as I enjoy it. I just think it is necessary to be always humble in the market as it will always show you up if you are not. As for me, I do post a few of my (very amateur) ideas on TradingView under tomj2417….some right…..many wrong.

            • TAJ

              Thank you, Peter, for such a detailed explanation. I find it very helpful indeed.

            • We are always interested in a good Elliott Wave discussion. So thanks for you question! Very best wishes.

    • Praveen Vishnu Shamain

      Dear WaveTrack Team,

      First of all, THANK YOU very much for sharing your views on the market, for the benefit of your followers.

      I have observed that (I should say, for the first time !), a chart with 80 minutes time interval (!).

      My question is – What benefit did you find by using 80 minutes time interval, as compared to standard time intervals like 30 minutes, 1H, 2H, 4H?

      Please let me know your views, so that I can also learn new things from you.

      With Regards,
      Praveen Vishnu Shamain
      INDIA

      • Dear Praveen Vishnu Shamain, Thank you very much for your positive comments. Feedback like this encourages us in maintaining the best we can achieve, then sharing it with everyone!

        You mention the 80 min. charts – actually, this was the best time-interval to fit the two charts side-by-side, with the right amount of resolution so the wave sequence could be seen easily. We have been working on our annual 2019 video reports for the last couple of months, finally published the last of the trilogy series this week so we can now turn our attention back to sharing more updates here!…very best wishes, Peter

    • shushumiga

      It looks like impulse what else…. but it is not, it is a zig-zag. The correction is not over until we see the 4 year cycle low.
      Deja vu Eurostoxx50 last year do you remember your forecast wave 1 and what happened:)

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