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Elliott Wave Financial Price Forecasting

AUDUSD

by m.tamosauskas| August 13, 2012 | No Comments

Australian $ / US $ started a counter-trend decline from the July’11 high of 1.1083. It is taking the form of a triangle pattern with ultimate downside targets to 0.9733 that is scheduled to complete late 2012. The triangle is specifically a contracting/symmetrical type, labeled (A)-(B)-(C)-(D)-(E) in intermediate degree. Each wave is retracing about fib. 85.4% of the preceding wave. Intermediate wave (D) is now in progress to the upside from the June ’12 low of 0.9581 and it is expected to finish near the 1.0663 price level (fib. 85.4%). Once completed, the final decline as wave (E) of the triangle will unfold into a three wave zig zag sequence to a measured downside target of 0.9733 (fib. 85.4%). This currency pair is positively correlated to global stock indices – it provides another excellent timing indicator not only for a return lower for the Australian $ / US $, but a reversal signature to confirm the conclusion of the stock market counter-trend advance from the June ’12 lows. Watch for a reversal signature during the next several trading days.

(Become an EW-Compass report subscriber and see how this pattern continues to develop and what’s coming up in the larger time-series).

 

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Bund

by m.tamosauskas| August 7, 2012 | No Comments

Germany’s 10 year Euro Bund future is trading lower  from the July ’12 high of 146.26 and its counter-trend pattern remains incomplete with more downside to come.

Intermediate wave (5)’s advance from the June low of 139.72 is expected to unfold into a single zig zag pattern as the concluding sequence of a larger/aggregate ending diagonal pattern. Minor wave a. completed from 139.72 to the July 23rd high of 146.26. This upswing is now being balanced by a counter-trend decline as minor wave b. unfolding into a double zig zag pattern. The first zig zag  unfolded from 146.26 to 142.64 – by itself it cuts into a perfect Golden Ratio (marked as red phi symbol), where minute wave a is exactly a 61.8% ratio of the entire zig zag decline between 146.26 and 142.64. The second zig zag is still in progress with an ultimate target towards 141.26. This is derived by extending the first zig zag by a fib. 38.2% ratio. It is astonishing that the same level also represents a fib. 76.4% retracement of the preceding upswing. When two of convergences of deferent of trend form together in close proximity (in this case equality), this attracts the price towards it in a culmination of the existing trend. Once completed, minor wave c. is expected to begin its advance projecting targets back above 146.26 as a minimum requirement. It is important to note, that a more bearish count from 146.26 (e.g. series of 1’s and 2’s) was negated when minute wave x exceeded the high of minute wave b of the first zig zag.

More importantly, this contract is negatively correlated to global stock indices – it provides a excellent timing indicator not only for a return higher for the Bund, but a reversal signature to confirm the conclusion of the stock market counter-trend advance from the June ’12 lows. Watch for a reversal signature during the next several trading days.

(Become an EW-Compass report subscriber and see how this pattern continues to develop and what’s coming up in the larger time-series).

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Euro / US$

by m.tamosauskas| August 3, 2012 | No Comments

Yesterday’s news flow created unique Elliott Wave pattern we would like to share with you.

Last week’s high of 1.2390 has completed the 1st wave within an impulse advance – 2nd wave counter-trend was expected to decline measured to the fib. 61.8% support at 1.2174 prior to an acceleration upwards. The uniqueness of this down-swing is that minute wave 2 as an expanded flat pattern has a smaller expanded flat pattern inside as a minuette [b] wave. An alternate count the coming upswing describes as a minuette wave [c]. In any case it is expected a sharp acceleration phase during the next several weeks. Note: a break below 1.2042 would negate the continued upside momentum.

(Become an EW-Compass report subscriber and see how this pattern continues to develop and what’s coming up in the larger time-series).

 

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WaveTrack International is a financial price forecasting company dedicated to the Elliott Wave principle and work of the R.N. Elliott. Clients include Investment Banks, Pension Funds, Total/Absolute-Return/Hedge Funds, Sovereign Wealth Funds, Corporate and Market-Making/Trading institutions and informed individuals -- & just about anyone who is affected by directional price change.

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