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Elliott Wave Financial Price Forecasting

S&P 500

by m.tamosauskas| September 14, 2012 | No Comments

Continued advances above the 1446.00+/- area have promoted this count to ‘preferential’ status. Basis the most recent rallies, original upside targets to 1483.36 seem too low for a possible finalisation of the entire advance in progress from the June low of 1266.74. Instead, objectives have been raised to 1503.58. Note that this scenario interprets the advance from 1266.74 as an impulse sequence within a larger bull market implying that the 1266.74 low will not be broken for the next few years.

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Category: S&P 500

S&P 500

by m.tamosauskas| September 12, 2012 | No Comments

The S&P is at a critical juncture as original upside targets to 1446.16-46.62 are being approached. Any reversal from here would confirm the end of the entire upswing from the June low of 1267.45 and begin an expanding-impulse decline over the next months finalising a larger 3-3-5 pattern that began from the April ’12 high of 1422.38.

Seen from a slightly larger perspective, the S&P is seen engaged in a counter-trend correction that began from the April ’12 high of 1422.38, taking the shape of an expanding flat pattern. This sequence, labelled as intermediate wave (2), is subdividing into minor degree, a-b-c, where wave a. declines to 1267.45 are followed by wave b. advances to 1446.16-46.62. These levels are measured by a fib. 14.58% extension of wave a. and a fib. 61.8% extension of the first zig zag within the double zig zag sequence that is shown to make up the structure for wave b. Once these upside objectives are achieved, await a reversal signature to confirm wave c. declines have begun. Ultimate downside targets for wave c. to be approached during the next months are projected to 1245.52 by a fib. 14.58% extension of wave a.

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Category: S&P 500

Announcment

by m.tamosauskas| September 8, 2012 | No Comments

Recent action following last week’s ECB council meeting has resulted in extending upside gains for the S&P 500 and other major indices. Next levels of resistance are being approached, for S&P 500 towards 1446.62. If price rejection is followed by a reversal signature then it will confirm a protracted decline for the next few months towards 1245.52. Conversely, should prices ignore this resistance area and instead accelerate higher with next upside targets towards 1483.36, then we shall be confirming a more limited counter-trend decline into November prior to additional accelerative gains as part of the ‘inflation-pop’ scenario.

Such an outcome would have a cumulative effect through all the other asset classes, including bonds, currencies and commodities.

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Category: Uncategorized

Eurostoxx 50

by m.tamosauskas| September 5, 2012 | No Comments

Declines from the Aug.’12 high of 2494.06 are resuming the larger downtrend that began from the Jan.’10 high of 3044.37. Shown on this chart is the final sequence of that downtrend in progress from this year’s high of 2611.42. Should the Eurostoxx manage to stay below 2494.06, declines are expected for the remainder of the year. A break above 2494.06 would trigger more upside to 2525.36, but only an advance above 2611.42 will negate this forecast.

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Category: Eurostoxx 50
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Crude oil

by m.tamosauskas| September 4, 2012 | No Comments

No immediate change.

Price target for minuette wave [ii] has been achieved at 97.37.

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Category: Crude oil

Crude oil

by m.tamosauskas| September 3, 2012 | 1 Comment

Last week’s advance broke above the 96.54 level transforming the counter-trend zig zag upswing from 94.41 into a more complex expanding flat pattern. This counter-trend rally remains as minuette wave [ii] but remains incomplete with revised upside targets towards 97.30-37. Price targets for minuette wave [ii] are measured this way: first, extending sub-minuette wave (a) of the expanding flat pattern by a fib. 38.2% ratio projects target towards 97.37 – second, extending the total distance of waves [1] to [4] of the impulse pattern unfolding as sub-minuette wave (c) by a fib. 61.8% ratio projects a target level towards 97.30. Such convergences are important inflexion points that signify potential reversal levels of the future. Elliott’s rule is that second wave retracements must not break beyond the starting point of the first wave, in this particular example, the high at 97.72 of minuette wave [i] – a break above this level will negate this bearish count allowing higher highs before a reversal to the downside.

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Category: Crude oil

BUND

by m.tamosauskas| August 31, 2012 | No Comments

Quick post since markets are really volatile today. Germany’s 10 year Euro Bund future has reversed nicely from our original target (143.14), actually it missed only 0.03 points. Now everything is in place for a final upswing towards 145.35 to finish five wave expanding-impulse pattern.

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Category: Germany 10 year Euro Bund future

BUND

by m.tamosauskas| August 30, 2012 | No Comments

Germany’s 10 year Euro Bund future from the high of 146.26 to the low of 140.78 unfolded into a double zig zag pattern. It has reversed and now is unfolding into an expanding-impulse pattern, labelled [i]-[ii]-[iii]-[iv]-[v] in minuette degree. So far only three waves are visible which means the upswing that started from 140.78 is not complete. An ideal price target for minuette wave [v] is measured towards 145.35. Once again, we are looking for other asset classes to confirm our outlook for the stock market. Recently, the correlation between bunds and global stock indices is somewhat mixed but it should resolve sooner rather than later into the common negative correlation.

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Category: Germany 10 year Euro Bund future

Crude Oil

by m.tamosauskas| August 29, 2012 | No Comments

 

Crude oil short-term chart represents nice Elliott Wave patterns. Yesterday we mentioned that from the top of 98.29 crude oil depicts a step-like series of g 1’s and 2’s. It could be that another smaller 1 and just finished couple of minutes before. Today it maintains unfolding in the same manner. The only thing that is missing – is accelerative down-swing, which could start any time from now.

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Category: Crude oil

Crude Oil

by m.tamosauskas| August 28, 2012 | No Comments

Crude oil unfolded into a three wave sequence from the recent low of 94.41. From an Elliott Wave perspective, the count from the top of 98.29 depicts a step-like series of 1’s and 2’s, with a third wave expansion due for crude oil at any time during the next few trading sessions.

Crude oil is positively correlated to global stock indices. If this commodity is expected to expand to the downside, this will translate into more pressure for the global stock indices.

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Category: Crude oil
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WaveTrack International is a financial price forecasting company dedicated to the Elliott Wave principle and work of the R.N. Elliott. Clients include Investment Banks, Pension Funds, Total/Absolute-Return/Hedge Funds, Sovereign Wealth Funds, Corporate and Market-Making/Trading institutions and informed individuals -- & just about anyone who is affected by directional price change.

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