WaveTrack International

Elliott Wave Financial Price Forecasting

S&P 500

by m.tamosauskas| November 30, 2012 | No Comments

The counter-trend sequence as minor wave ii. two in progress from the mid-October high of 1464.02 is shown unfolding into a double zig zag sequence of minute degree, a-b-c-x-a-b-c. The first zig zag completed at 1343.35 and is now being followed by wave x counter-trend rallies with idealised upside to 1451.43. A reversal signature from there would trigger the secondary zig zag that is projected to ultimate downside at 1299.78 by a fib. 38.2% extension of the first zig zag. This level roughly converges with the fib. 85.4% retracement of minor wave i. one. At this point of time, we still cannot eliminate the possibility of the S&P ending its decline below the June ’12 low of 1266.74. This is because the June-September upswing is actually a mess, a seven price-swing advance to the actual high of 1474.51 and a nine (5 wave impulse with extension) to the ‘truncation’ to 1464.02. If this advance ended a seven wave double zig zag sequence to 1474.51, then the following decline would become the final sequence of a larger expanding flat pattern for intermediate wave (2) with downside targets to 1232.57-26.50

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Category: S&P 500

by m.tamosauskas| November 22, 2012 | No Comments

The S&P responded positively from last Friday’s lows of 1343.35 confirming a counter-trend advance has begun as wave ‘X’. Basis the price development so far, it would seem that a deep retracement will ultimately unfold – the last days’ attempt to the fib. 38.2% resistance level at 1388.00+/- whilst unfolding from 1343.35 into a sub-hourly five wave impulse pattern increases this probability so that an eventual zig zag upward rally ends towards the fib. 61.8% area at 1416.69+/-. Naturally, a shorter-term retracement should unfold first.

Category: S&P 500

S&P 500

by m.tamosauskas| November 15, 2012 | No Comments

The S&P’s protracted decline during the last several weeks has confirmed the completion of the June upswing at the 18th October high of 1464.02 as a truncated 5th wave. This means that a counter-trend sequence to the entire 1266.74-1464.02 advance is underway which suggests a continued decline during the next couple of months. Latest: short-term interim downside targets measured to 1373.03-67.01 have already been achieved – a reversal from here will trigger a temporary counter-trend rally into idealised upside at 1414.70+/- but could do more. This forecast is negated above 1464.02.

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Category: S&P 500

S&P 500

by m.tamosauskas| November 12, 2012 | No Comments

As highlighted in the last update, the S&P’s failure to respond from the 1388.00+/- area has confirmed the completion of the June upswing at the 18th October high of 1464.02 as a truncated 5th wave. This means that a counter-trend sequence to the entire 1266.74-1464.02 advance is underway which suggests a continued decline during the next couple of months. Shorter-term, an interim downside target is measured to 1373.03-67.01 – a subsequent reversal would trigger a temporary counter-trend rally into an idealised upside area of 1414.70+/- but could do more. This forecast is negated above 1464.02.

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Category: S&P 500

by m.tamosauskas| November 7, 2012 | No Comments

With this week’s break below the 1403.28 low, the S&P has triggered additional downside potential to 1389.44 which has been already achieved with yesterday’s low of 1388.14. A reversal from there is necessary to validate the continuation of the larger upswing that began from the June low of 1266.74. Failure to respond from the 1388.14 level followed by an acceleration below would otherwise confirm that the S&P already completed the larger upswing at 1464.02 with a 5th wave truncation. This would have bearish implications for the next months.

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Category: S&P 500

by m.tamosauskas| October 26, 2012 | No Comments

The decline from the September high of 1474.51 is still in progress, unfolding as a 4th wave within a larger ongoing five wave upswing from the June low of 1266.74. Shorter-term, downside targets measure to 1396.08 but could also extend to the fib. 50% support at 1389.44. As this is commonly the max. retracement for a 4th wave, <b>any acceleration below 1389.44 would revise this forecast. A reversal from the 1396.08-1389.44 area would otherwise trigger the finalising 5th wave advance in the weeks ahead, with original upside targets to 1502.70-15.71.

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Category: S&P 500

Nasdaq Composite

by m.tamosauskas| October 18, 2012 | No Comments

The focus on this chart is minute wave 4’s text-book counter-trend decline between 3196.90 to 3037.20. This was expected to unfold into a single zig zag pattern towards 3036.80 derived by extending minuette wave [a] a fib. 38.2% ratio. This ratio can be used when wave B of a zig zag pattern retraces 50% or more of the preceding wave A. The exact price level that completed zig zag pattern was 3037.20, just a 0.40 point shy of our original price level! Use ratio and proportion measurements to get more advanced analysis of Elliott Wave Theory.

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Category: Nasdaq Composite

S&P 500

by m.tamosauskas| October 17, 2012 | No Comments

The reversal signature from last Friday’s low of 1425.53 has triggered the finalising upswing of the larger uptrend in progress from the June low of 1266.74. Ultimate upside is measured to 1515.71. Original lower upside to 1487.87 has been ruled out due to the substructure of the current advance from 1425.53 which implies more upside potential. Once 1515.71 has been achieved, await a reversal signature to confirm a counter-trend decline to the entire 1266.74-1515.71 advance has begun. This forecast is revised below 1425.53.

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Category: S&P 500

Dow Jones 30

by m.tamosauskas| October 15, 2012 | No Comments

As the Dow Jones Industrial has already exceeded the preceding 13367.30 low, the contracting-symmetrical triangle pattern unfolding as minute wave 4 from the September high of 13653.20 has been changed into an expanding flat sequence. Short-term downside objectives measure to 13300.70 – a reversal from there would trigger the finalising upswing to min. 13823.60 and max. 13975.80 during the next weeks. Only an acceleration below 13259.70, the fib. 38.2% extension of wave ‘A’ of the flat, will revise this forecast.

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Category: Dow Jones 30

S&P 500

by m.tamosauskas| October 10, 2012 | No Comments

The sell off from last week’s high of 1470.96 has greatly increased the probability for the contracting-symmetrical triangle scenario. This means the S&P should remain within the range between the 1474.51 high and the 1430.53 low during the next several trading days before it stages one finalising advance to original upside at min. 1487.87 or max. 1515.71 to complete the entire upswing from the June low of 1266.74. Only a break below 1430.53 would trigger additional downside potential to 1409.06.

Category: S&P 500
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WaveTrack International is a financial price forecasting company dedicated to the Elliott Wave principle and work of the R.N. Elliott. Clients include Investment Banks, Pension Funds, Total/Absolute-Return/Hedge Funds, Sovereign Wealth Funds, Corporate and Market-Making/Trading institutions and informed individuals -- & just about anyone who is affected by directional price change.

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