WaveTrack International

Elliott Wave Financial Price Forecasting

Facebook

by m.tamosauskas| February 13, 2014 | No Comments

140214_Facebook

Facebook is maintaining the upside momentum. The advance that began from the Sep.’12 low of 17.55 is expected to unfold into a five wave expanding-impulse pattern labelled 1-2-3-4-5 in primary degree. Ultimate upside target is extended towards 66.58 and is derived by using a fib. 61.8% correlation ratio between the net advance of primary waves 1 to 3 (17.55-54.82) and wave 5.

Since the data history of Facebook is limited, it is difficult to extrapolate the larger degree pattern; however, any five wave advance must be balanced by a counter-trend decline and so, once upside target to 66.58 has been tested, Facebook is expected to stage a multi-month decline with minimum downside targets measured towards 43.35+/- – back to a smaller degree 4th wave preceding.

Interim update – S&P 500

by m.tamosauskas| February 12, 2014 | No Comments

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The upside recovery from last Wednesday’s low of 1737.92 has been expected to act as a counter-trend sequence of the January sell-off with upside targets into the fib. 61.8% retracement level at 1806.86 or max. 76.4% at 1824.00+/-. Although this level is only now being tested, the problem is that the rally has had such a sharp trajectory that it’s almost impossible to see any three wave structure that would define this as a counter-trend pattern.

The S&P is not the only index that has accelerated vertically – this includes the Dow Jones (DJIA) and especially the Nasdaq indices that are already close to breaking above the existing January ‘14 highs. This of course would postpone the larger intermediate degree wave (4) declines forecast in recent updates.

It now seems probable that the mid-Jan.’14 sell-off was in fact a counter-trend pattern within the existing uptrend in progress from the June ’12 low as intermediate wave (3). Subdividing wave (3) into a five wave pattern relocates its fourth wave low, minor wave iv. four, into the June ‘13 low at 1560.33 – see fig #1. Then, subdividing minor wave v.’s five’s advance into a smaller five wave sequence as 12345 would locate last week’s low at 1737.92 as wave 4. This would explain the explosive upward acceleration that has continued this week as wave 5 is now in upside progress to new record highs.

A minimum upside target now projects to 1904.26 and this is derived where waves 1 and 5 measure equally, oscillating to a fib. 100% equality ratio. This is not too far above the 1885.26 number that is measured from extending minor wave i. one by a fib. 161.8% extension ratio. A higher level towards 1931.33 is calculated by taking a fib. 61.8% correlative ratio of waves 13 = 5 but this seems to overdo it especially when comparing with the potential of other indices.

S&P 500 + FREE WEEK

by m.tamosauskas| February 7, 2014 | No Comments

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As expected, S&P 500 is rebounding from a very oversold conditions. Strong price rejection from 1737.92 has validated minor wave a.’s conclusion at 1737.92. This implies no immediate downside continuation to original targets at 1720.64 but instead an advance towards idealised upside at 1800.00+/-. In a way, this simplifies the entire downswing from the 1850.84 high as it suggests a single zig zag sequence towards the important downside support at 1692.45.

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Don’t forget – tomorrow we are starting our FREE WEEK campaign, register today and get access to our EW-Compass report from the 8th to 15th of February. And of course let us know what do you think about our services 🙂

FREE WEEK

by m.tamosauskas| February 5, 2014 | No Comments

 

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At the beginning of next month we are announcing a FREE WEEK of EW-Compass! Stay tuned for more details.

XAU – Gold/Solver Index

by m.tamosauskas| January 31, 2014 | No Comments

03_XAU Gold_Silver Index 140131b

As gold and silver continue their declines from the 2011 highs, the consensus bearish expectations are gradually worsening to extreme levels. Many financial institutions have begun the year by lowering their targets for 2014 whilst the latest batch of sentiment figures indicates very few people are willing to risk investing in this asset class.  This is a carryover from last year when hedge funds and retail investors liquidated their physical gold holdings to the lowest figure in five years. In fact, this shouldn’t be a big surprise – gold’s year over year performance is the worst since 1981. But as we all understand, bear and bull markets don’t exist forever, at some point they exhaust and the next cycle will take a lead. The million dollar question is when will this next event occur? Our Elliott Wave analysis suggests the precious metal declines will complete within the next few months and then begin a dramatic turn-around! Gold can easily double in price whilst silver can triple, moreover, even more upside can be expected from selected mining companies! In this special EW-Compass monthly Bonus chart we are providing an Elliott Wave analysis of the XAU – Gold/Silver Index – a mix of gold and silver mining companies. Short-term price development indicates some continued range-trading following the June-December lows of 2013 but once completed, a final decline unfolds into our projected lows – see chart below. Two additional charts with a longer-term perspective are included in this month’s special EW-Compass Bonus report so don’t miss this opportunity in taking a look at our forecasts.

S&P 500 Daily reversal

by m.tamosauskas| January 24, 2014 | No Comments

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A break below the mid-January low now looks inevitable for the S&P. This is an important support level that requires penetration to confirm a final high for intermediate wave (3) at the recent 1850.84 high. There is an increasing probability that the 1850.84 print has now completed the entirety of wave (3) that began from the June ’12 low of 1266.74. Looking ahead, a fib. 38.2% correction for intermediate wave (4) projects down to 1601.26.

Inverted VIX

by m.tamosauskas| January 24, 2014 | No Comments

Inverted VIX

This chart is showing an updated correlation between S&P 500 and invertded VIX index. As can be seen the correlation is possitive and a negative divergence between these two creates a trend change event. The last negative divergence occoured in 2007. It took about one year to unfold but the SELL (S&P 500) signal proved to be right. Today we have very simmilar situation – a negative divergence is developing for about one year. However, S&P 500 is still in an uptrend since all the way back from 2012 there is no a single intermediate lower low. It needs to break below the December ’13 low of 1767.99 to confirm the signal.

S&P 500 Weekly

by m.tamosauskas| January 17, 2014 | No Comments

SPX

S&P 500 is stretching to incredible overbought levels. Feels like this market is never going to decline more than a few per cents down. Traditional TA indicators are diverging for quite some time, volume declining all the way down from the early 2009. Talking about limits:

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Shortsideofthelong.com observes that the current bull market after a few more weeks will be the second longest during the last 80 years. Incredible indeed!

Emerging Markets

by m.tamosauskas| January 10, 2014 | No Comments

Let’s get back to the bussiness! 🙂 First of all, happy New Year! Operating our business is about both teamwork, and friendship. We have proved this by working together this past year, and look forward to the year ahead.The coming year, 2014, is expected to be the most important year for a generation. Dramatic trend changes are forecast into late 2014. The ‘Inflation-Pop’ phase that began from the post financial-crisis lows of 2008/09 remains in force. Prices are again forecast higher this year but into a finalising peak due mid/late-2014 – the exact timing depending on cycle studies and pattern development. Some dislocation of upward price amplitude occurred during the second half of 2013 – this means that Asian and Emerging Market indices will attempt to ‘catch-up’ with U.S. equivalents in 2014 resulting in outperformance. Some are expected to advance in excess of +100% per cent. Looking for opportunities, we have to revise which markets have been underperforming. Here are our candidates.  Some of these markets are expected to stage impressive rallies during 2014. What is your favorite? 😉

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Announcement

by m.tamosauskas| December 19, 2013 | No Comments

It’s time to rest again 🙂

Today we are publishing the last update before the Christmas holiday festivities begin. We shall all take the opportunity to rest a little during the following week or so. The next blog post is scheduled early next year, 8th January 2014.

Season’s greetings and wishing you success for 2014 – Peter Goodburn, Kamil & Martynas.

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About WTI

WaveTrack International is a financial price forecasting company dedicated to the Elliott Wave principle and work of the R.N. Elliott. Clients include Investment Banks, Pension Funds, Total/Absolute-Return/Hedge Funds, Sovereign Wealth Funds, Corporate and Market-Making/Trading institutions and informed individuals -- & just about anyone who is affected by directional price change.

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