WaveTrack International

Elliott Wave Financial Price Forecasting

PART I, STOCK INDICES (SEMI-ANNUAL) VIDEO is NOW AVAILABLE!

by m.tamosauskas| June 17, 2014 | No Comments

We are pleased to announce the update of medium and long-term Elliott Wave STOCK INDICES price-forecasts is now available in the latest SEMI-ANNUAL video release. Subscribe to the EW-Compass report & watch the latest Stock Indices Video today! Subscribe now!

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Category: Uncategorized

NASDAQ Biotechnology Index (NBI) is taking a more direct route to upside targets

by m.tamosauskas| June 5, 2014 | No Comments

The bearish divergences visible in U.S. stock markets were first identified mid-April when the benchmark S&P 500 index declined into a three price-swing corrective pattern whilst the Nasdaq Bio-Tech (NBI) unfolded during the same period into a five wave impulse – the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) states that three wave patterns define counter-trend movement whilst five wave patterns define directional ‘trend’.

This difference in wave structure, comparing two indices with a high positive correlation, provides a warning of larger, impending declines. Naturally, the rhythms of up-and-down price movement are synchronised, but the relative outperformance/underperformance creates different Elliott Wave patterns, each unique.

The S&P’s three wave decline into the mid-April ’14 low confirmed its uptrend remained intact, incomplete, with at least another attempt due to unfold into record highs – that has now been realised at levels of 1928.00+/-. In contrast, the Nasdaq Bio-Tech (NBI) index’s decline into a five wave pattern to the mid-April low at 2168.08 confirms it has already ended its uptrend earlier, into its late-Feb.’14 high of 2872.29 and has begun a durational 2-3 month decline. This is valuable difference because it informs us that the S&P’s advance to record highs is somewhat limited – because the Nasdaq Bio-Tech (NBI) is simply synchronising the same upswing but as a counter-trend pattern.

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Category: Nasdaq Biotechnology Index

Copper resumes larger declines

by m.tamosauskas| June 2, 2014 | No Comments

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Copper has so far unfolded higher from the March ’14 low of 6321 into a three wave sequence – this has the dimensions of ending a counter-trend zig zag pattern. It was critical for prices to remain below the Elliott Wave ‘overlap’ resistance of 7015 if downside forecasts below the March low were to remain valid. So far, prices have ended the zig zag upswing below this level, at last week’s high of 6970 (319.25 – COMEX).

As if to validate a reversal signature, the subsequent decline from those highs has unfolded into an intra-hourly five wave pattern that ended into last Friday’s low at 6836 (312.05). This heightens the probability that the entire upswing from the March low has ended, and a new series of declines is about to begin, lasting the next couple of months or so, with downside targets to 5710+/-.

Only an accelerative break above the 7015 resistance would change this outlook.

Category: Copper

Precious Metals Forum (Bloomberg)

by m.tamosauskas| June 2, 2014 | No Comments

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Bloomberg hosted a Precious Metals Forum on 20th of May and we were invited to present our latest Elliott Wave price-forecasts. Mineweb.com made a proffesional review and we would like to share it:  http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en/mineweb-whats-new?oid=242324&sn=Detail

Category: GDX, Gold, Silver

NASDAQ Biotechnology Index (NBI)

by m.tamosauskas| May 28, 2014 | No Comments

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A follow-up on NASDAQ Biotechnology Index (NBI). For the record: goo.gl/pKSl29 

Category: Nasdaq Biotechnology Index

Australia ASX 200

by m.tamosauskas| May 23, 2014 | No Comments

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Due to the price spike into Wednesday’s low of 5372 which renders the sell-off from 5554 into a more complex single zig zag sequence, the ending diagonal in progress from the Feb.’14 low of 5052 now has to be described as an expanding type. This does not however change original upside targets that are still measured by a fib. 38.2% upside extension of the 5457-5028 decline and project to 5631 during the next few weeks. These upside levels are in line with expectations based on the assumption of an expanding flat sequence that is shown unfolding as intermediate wave (4) and subdividing into a 3-3-5 sequence in minor degree, a-b-c. Wave a. declines to 5028 are currently followed by wave b. advances. Once a reversal from 5631+/- occurs, it will trigger wave c. declines to ultimate downside at 4873-38 measured by a fib. 38.2% downside extension of wave a. and the fib. 38.2% retracement of intermediate wave (3).

Category: Uncategorized

Crude Oil

by m.tamosauskas| May 16, 2014 | No Comments

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Crude oil continues to trade in a very complex pattern sequence since establishing its upswing from January’s low of 91.24 into the March high of 105.22. Our latest short-term update describes a subsequent three wave decline from 105.22 into the March low at 97.28 followed by three waves up into the April high of 104.99 – another three price-swing decline into the early May low at 98.74 and now a break above the interim high of 102.20. Unscrambling these sequences into a visible Elliott Wave pattern translates into a developing expanding flat in progress as minor wave ii. from the 105.22 high. Three price swings down form a zig zag to 97.28 as minute wave a followed by a double zig zag upswing in progress as wave b to 106.43. A final five wave impulse decline then begins minute wave c towards 94.41 derived by extending wave a by a fib. 38.2% ratio. We remain alert to alternatives although this current pattern seems the most obvious for its current development. The medium-term uptrend remains intact.

Category: Crude oil

Crude Oil

by m.tamosauskas| May 9, 2014 | No Comments

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The advance from the 1st of May low of 98.74 is seen as a counter-trend rally that is balancing the preceding sell-off from 102.20. The entire decline from 104.10 (outright contract) or 104.99 (continuation chart) can be labelled as a 1-2-1 sequence which limits current upside potential – the 102.20 high should not be broken in order to maintain downside momentum. What is the Elliott Wave count? There are two scenarios which are both assigned a high probability – the first depicts a 2nd wave counter-trend decline labelled minor wave ii. that is unfolding into a single zig zag decline from the 105.22 high and projected to downside at 94.41; the second advocates much lower objectives towards 81.90 in the months ahead as a larger expanding flat pattern labelled intermediate wave (2) is about to finalise.

Category: Crude oil

India Nifty 50

by m.tamosauskas| May 2, 2014 | 1 Comment

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The Nifty 50 has advanced into a similar leading expanding-diagonal pattern as compared to the Hang Seng from its Dec.’11 low of 4531.15 but has outperformed since last December, and only now approaching a terminal upside completion of the pattern at 6869.85. There is now an increasing risk that it has begun a severe multi-month counter-trend decline. Idealised fib-price-ratio targets still a little higher, to 6949.80-7035.00 but these will be put aside should the current decline from the high extend lower during the next week. A counter-trend decline is labelled as a 2nd wave with interim targets to 6040.00 but an ultimate downside test to the fib. 50% retracement level at 5580.00+/-.

Category: India-CNX Nifty 50

Can 3’s end a 5 wave pattern?

by m.tamosauskas| April 11, 2014 | No Comments

The S&P 500 has been approaching an important high during the last few weeks as its five wave impulse advance beginning from the June ’12 low of 1266.74 nears the completion for intermediate wave (3). This is affirmed where minor wave i. one of (3) is extended by a fib. 161.8% ratio to project minor wave v. five of (3) to a high at 1885.26.

Minor wave v. five began a final upswing from the June ’13 low of 1560.33 and this subdivides into a smaller five wave expanding-impulse pattern, 1–2–3–4–5. Minute wave 5 five began its final advance from the early-Feb.’14 low of 1737.92 – see chart. But when subdividing this into a smaller five wave sequence, there is one visible stand-out – the final advance from the mid-March low of 1839.57 unfolded into a three wave sequence, a zig zag. How can a mature uptrend finalise into a three wave pattern, when ordinarily, a five is required?

This three wave sequence has certainly muddled the picture and eluded the casual Elliott Wave practitioner’s eye – but look closely, and the answer can be found.

Following last Friday’s ‘key-reversal-signature’ (April 4th) and now Thursday’s break (April 10th) below key support levels at 1839.57, there is no doubt that the 1897.28 high ended the 21 month advance as wave (3) – but what about that three wave sequence into the high?

The fifth wave of the Feb.’14 advance has taken the form of an ending expanding-diagonal pattern. Composed of five price-swings, each of its ‘impulse’ sequences, waves (i)-(iii)-(v) commonly subdivide into three price-swing patterns, zig zags (or multiples, doubles/triples). The finalising advance as wave (v) from the 1839.57 level can be clearly seen unfolding higher into a zig zag to the 1897.28 high – this explains why the overall advance has ended into a ‘three’ wave sequence, not a usual ‘five’ – see inset tutorial chart, top-right for comparison.

 

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Category: S&P 500
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WaveTrack International is a financial price forecasting company dedicated to the Elliott Wave principle and work of the R.N. Elliott. Clients include Investment Banks, Pension Funds, Total/Absolute-Return/Hedge Funds, Sovereign Wealth Funds, Corporate and Market-Making/Trading institutions and informed individuals -- & just about anyone who is affected by directional price change.

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