Hungarian Forint Elliott Wave analysis
by m.tamosauskas| August 4, 2014 | No Comments
Questions from our Elliott Wave Compass subscribers form an important part of our relationship at WaveTrack International, and this is especially true when we’re asked for a ‘helping-hand’ in analysing a contract that is not so often featuring in mainstream news. In this update, we are challenged into applying the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) to the Euro/Hungarian Forint currency pair. We hope this has a great benefit to our friends in Hungary and to those other traders in far-flung countries in other locations around the world – Peter Goodburn
Elliott Wave Analysis
The first approach in analysing anything for the first time is to identify correlations with similar contracts, especially those that are more familiar. This study began by taking a comparative look at the US$/Forint and the Euro/Rouble.
The US$/Hungarian Forint currency pair has trended higher since forming an important low in July ’08 at 143.37. The overall upswing that followed took the form of a zig zag, labelled (A)-(B)-(C) ending in March ’09 at 252.77. It is no coincidence that this effect coincided with the financial-crisis sell-off – see fig #1.
The subsequent decline could have resumed a new multi-year downtrend but it instead unfolded into a three price-swing sideways pattern that is interpreted as a horizontal flat, ending at 176.83 in May ’11 as wave (X). This suggests the initial zig zag upswing is transforming into a double zig zag. Extending the first zig zag by a fib. 38.2% ratio projects the second to 313.67.
The secondary zig zag sequence has since begun from 176.83 and corroborated by the fact that a five wave subdivision is identified in the advance to 252.00, ending wave (A). Extending this by a fib. 61.8% ratio projects wave (C) to 313.91 – note the convergence!
Notwithstanding shorter-term permutations during the next few months, what this intermediate-term wave count tells us is that the dominant direction is upwards for the next year or two.
The analysis of the Euro/ Hungarian Forint currency pair is more complex since January ’12 and especially from the Aug.’12 low of 274.44. Several short-term permutations are possible, so please do not consider this intermediate-term analysis suitable for shorter-term trading. Nonetheless, its basic structure from the July ’08 low of 228.01 is the same – see fig #2.
If the same double zig zag pattern is unfolding higher, strengthening the Euro and weakening the Forint, then more upside potential seems likely during the equivalent 1-2 year period.
Interestingly, if the first zig zag, (A)-(B)-(C) to 317.13 is extended by a fib. 38.2% ratio, an upside target for the completion of the second projects upside targets to 359.73. Basis the equivalent upside targets for the US$/Forint, this equates to a Euro/US$ level at 1.1468+/-. As our subscribers know, this is one of our intermediate-term downside targets that is derived from the Euro/US$ analysis.
Extending the first zig zag by a larger fib. 61.8% ratio, upside projections measure to 388.85 – this is equivalent to 1.2396+/- for the Euro/US$, and again, independently, this number closely approximates to current analysis.
Closing Remarks
The overall structure of these double zig zag patterns in upside progress from the July ’08 lows appears sound. They certainly corroborate our more detailed analysis for the Euro/US$ that is updated twice-weekly in the EW-Compass reports. If you’re trading currencies and would like to join us as one of our subscribers, we’ve no doubt that we can assist in achieving your goals! If you’d like to see our currency track-record, please send us a request using the ‘Help-desk’, located at www.wavetrack.com
WaveTrack International Risk Disclaimer
WaveTrack International and its related publications apply R.N.Elliott’s ‘The Wave Principle’ to historical market price activity which categorises and interprets the progress of future price patterns according to this methodology. Whilst it may be reasonable to deduce a course of action regarding investments as a result of such application, at no time or on any occasion will specific securities, futures, options or commodities of any kind be recommended for purchase or sale. Publications containing forecasts are therefore intended for information purposes only. Any opinion contained in these reports is only a statement of our views and are based on information we believe to be reliable but no guarantee is given as to its accuracy or completeness. Markets are volatile and therefore subject to rapid an unexpected price changes. Any person relying on information contained in these reports does so at their own risk entirely and no liability is accepted by WaveTrack International in respect thereof.
Tags: elliott wave > EUR/HUF > EUR/USD > Hungarian Forint > USD/HUF
Triple fib-price-ratio convergence
by m.tamosauskas| August 1, 2014 | No Comments
Back in early July, we presented a triple fib-price-ratio convergence level that proved to be a rock solid resistance. The S&P 500 index was trying to reattempt these highs several times but finally gave up and the result of all of that is a free fall decline.
Yesterday we published an interim report to all our EW-Compass subscribers stating:’ Despite yesterday’s impressive Q2 U.S. GDP figures and the latest comments from the Federal Reserve that it would maintain a highly accommodative policy stance for a considerable period after expiry of the bond-purchase programme, we see the S&P 500 breaking integral support levels below 1952.86 during the opening of today’s session. This suggests a final top is in for intermediate wave (3), ending this advance that dates back to the June ’12 low 1266.74.
Up until today’s action, there was always a chance of the S&P extending into one additional higher high as last night’s short-term update described, but the break below the early-July low of 1952.86 was significant – furthermore the pattern from the 1991.39 high displays an incomplete five wave impulse pattern in downside progress – this also negates the alternate short-term count scenario describing an expanding flat pattern that would allow one additional higher high to develop.’
As we have turned down, the fib-price-ratios will be extremely valuable tool to determine possible support levels and ending point for counter-trend advances. Become an EW-Compass report subscriber and get shorter-term insights to other stock market indices. The latest report will be published later tonight.
Don’t be misled by short ‘C’ waves! [Gold]
by m.tamosauskas| July 29, 2014 | No Comments
Last Friday’s late-session upswings for both gold & silver have delayed the downside targets for gold towards 1272.43 having tested 1287.75 even though original levels for silver were duly reached with a low recorded at 20.11.
If silver is viewed in isolation, it is possible to describe a zig zag pattern completing into last week’s low at 20.11 from the 21.60 high – that of course would suggest a more bullish outlook that points towards the alternate counts currently updated in recent weeks. But gold’s equivalent decline from its 10th July high of 1344.93 is unlikely to have completed a synchronised zig zag pattern into last week’s low at 1287.75 because wave ‘c’ of the zig zag that began its decline from 1324.77 would be ‘too short’ when compared to wave ‘a’.
It is a common misconception that ‘c’ waves within zig zag patterns [commonly] measure 61.8% of ‘a’ waves – our archived files within WaveSearch and hands-on practice over the last twenty-five years shows a much higher commonality where waves ‘a’ & ‘c’ either conform to a fib. 100% equality ratio, or where wave ‘a’ is extended by a fib. 38.2% or 61.8% ratio to depict the conclusion of wave ‘c’. Short ‘c’ waves do exist, but these occur at a significantly smaller number than manifests in the other three fib-price-ratio measurements – tip: try to avoid the temptation of labelling short ‘c’ waves within zig zags!
Another aspect worth mentioning is the fact that gold’s secondary decline between 1324.77-1287.75 can be seen unfolding into a three wave sequence, not a five as would be required to label this as wave ‘c’ of a zig zag. Together, these observations suggest gold’s decline from the 1344.93 high remains incomplete…
The interim-update report describing short-term forecast changes on gold and silver was just sent to all our EW-Compass subscribers. Not only does this bring you up-to-date with the short-term price developments but also valuable information on how the application of fib-price-ratios are used to distinguish between competing wave counts. (Become an EW-Compass report subscriber and get an immediate access to the interim Gold & Silver Update!)
Australia ASX 200 close to the critical resistance level
by m.tamosauskas| July 25, 2014 | No Comments
Additional upside has brought the ASX close to its original upside projections at 5631. These are derived basis the assumption that an expanding flat sequence is in progress from the Oct.’13 high of 5457 – a fib. 38.2% upside extension of the initial decline from there labelled minor wave a. measures to 5631 which should provide strong resistance for the current rally. A reversal is expected from there to validate wave c. declines in the months ahead. A fib. 38.2% downside extension of wave a. projects to ultimate targets at 4873 which tallies with a fib. 38.2% retracement of intermediate wave (3).
Alcoa is testing its interim upside targets
by m.tamosauskas| July 17, 2014 | No Comments
Late last year, 2013, we published Alcoa forecast showing a double zig zag advance is being in progress from the March ’09 low of 4.97:
Yesterday (2014-07-16) Alcoa prices recorded a 16.71 high – a fib. 61.8% cut of the entire projected advance (7.63-27.02) which is the most common measurement within a zig zag pattern and just a 3 cents above our original interim target for primary wave A of the secondary zig zag pattern:
It will be interesting to see how this equity trades during the next few days. A reversal signature from the 16.71+/- resistance level would indicate the completion of primary wave A and the following decline is expected to begin a balancing progress as primary wave B.
Bullish on gold? You might be too late!
by m.tamosauskas| July 14, 2014 | No Comments
We also have been bullish on gold, but that’s now one-month-old news… Here is what EW-Compass report was suggesting on 4th of June: ‘Although gold’s decline from the April high of 1331.21 has unfolded to current levels into a seven price-swing formation, as a double zig zag however, it must now immediately begin a reversal advance to confirm its completion. Should prices hold the 1240.00+/- level and begin trading back above 1260.00+/-, then a continuation higher is forecast to complete towards 1339.26 ending minor wave ii. as an expanding flat.’ Since this forecast has been published, gold prices advanced about 100.00 US dollars per ounce, but thats not all!
Today we have a reversal signature from the main resistance level around 1340.00+/- with gold prices already trading around 20.00+/- US dollars downwards. The downtrend is expected to continue during the next few months. Don’t miss the next opportunity! Become an EW-Compass report subscriber and see how this pattern continues to develop and what’s coming up in the larger time-series!
The Russell’s 2000 decline unfolds into a five wave seqence
by m.tamosauskas| July 11, 2014 | 3 Comments
The advance from the mid-May low of 1082.53 clearly subdivides into a five wave pattern into the recent high at 1213.55 that marks the conclusion of the larger five wave impulse pattern that began from the June ’12 low. Furthermore, the subsequent decline from 1213.55 has unfolded into a clearly visible five wave expanding-impulse pattern to Thursday’s low at 1151.12. This increases the probability that a multi-month downside correction is underway (see main chart). A shorter-term counter-trend rally has begun from 1151.12 with immediate upside targets measuring towards 1178.79-82.33. This could be exceeded if an initial zig zag pattern extends as a double, in which case, an attempt towards 1200.00+/- would be tested before an accelerative decline resumes. Even though European indices are recovering and ultimately expecting higher highs during the next week or so, the Russell is unlikely to trade back above its 1213.55 high.
PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF
by m.tamosauskas| July 2, 2014 | No Comments
Back in early March ’14, the PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund was close to a five wave expanding-impulse pattern completion from the 24.04 low. We published this forecast (in EW-Compass report, dated 3rd of March) with an intension that once this pattern is completed, the following counter-trend decline must follow that most commonly unfolds into a three wave pattern:
An updated chart shows the first five wave sequence as primary wave 1 has completed into the 29.41 high and the following counter-trend decline began primary wave 2. This is expected to unfold into a single zig zag pattern, labelled (A)-(B)-(C) in intermediate degree with ultimate downside targets measured towards 26.09 – a convergence level with a fib. 61.8% extension ratio of wave (A) and a fib.61.8% retracement level of the preceding advance (24.04-29.41). This should act as a magnet but once this support level has been tested, look for a reversal signature to resume the larger advances.
It promises to be an exciting moment, because this is part of our ‘inflation-pop’ scenario and we see evidence of this already with agricultural commodities breaking above their long-term downtrend channels.
Facebook is set to resume it’s decline
by m.tamosauskas| June 20, 2014 | 2 Comments
The advance from the Sep.’12 low to the March ’14 high of 72.59 unfolded into a five wave expanding-impulse pattern labelled 1-2-3-4-5 in primary degree. Extending the net advance between primary waves 1 to 4 (17.55-51.85) by a fib. 61.8% ratio we can project the high for wave 5. The actual recorded high of 72.59 was just a few cents below the ideal upside measurement which confirms the completion of a five wave pattern to the upside. Each five wave advance must be balanced by a corrective sequence and in this case the decline that began from the 72.59 high is expected to unfold into a single zig zag pattern labelled A-B-C in primary degree. Primary wave A completed the initial decline into the April ’14 low of 55.44 and the following counter-trend advance as primary wave B just ended into the recent high of 66.47. Back in early May ’14 we projected the high for this advance to 66.00+/- and this appears has been achieved. The subsequent decline began the final price-swing as primary wave C. It must unfold into a smaller five wave sequence with ultimate downside targets measured towards 45.00+/- – a fib. 50% retracement level of the preceding advance (17.55-72.59). A test to this support level is expected sometime during the next few months.
The Big Secret in Financial Markets
by m.tamosauskas| June 18, 2014 | No Comments
Dear Elliott Wave enthusiasts!
The northern hemisphere’s Summer Solstice is the opposite of the southern hemisphere’s Winter Solstice, the period of longest daylight/nightfall, scheduled for this coming Saturday, 21st June. The balancing of day/night is just one dualistic aspect of our universe and a reminder of the one which also epitomises the dualistic concept found in the Elliott Wave Principle, of action/reaction, progress/regress, trend/counter-trend – you already know this well!
You might think this is an obvious comparison, but let me tell you something – the opening sentence of R.N.Elliott’s ‘Nature’s Law’ (1946) seems a million miles away in today’s consciousness: ‘No truth meets more general acceptance than the universe is ruled by law’. Well, can you honestly say that the majority of people in finance today generally accept that the universe is ruled by law!? – the reality is quite the opposite – recent studies have shown that over 90% of professional fund managers consider fundamental statistics and relative news-flows are more important factors that drive price movement than any governing universal laws! But don’t let that fool you – break out of the herd and stay ahead.
I’ve recently returned to my birthplace, London, presenting WaveTrack’s latest Elliott Wave ‘inflation-pop’ forecasts to over 300+ delegates at BLOOMBERG’s Precious Metals Forum. It was interesting to note that most were ambivalent about the price outlook of Gold/Silver/Platinum even though it was their business! – this is not an isolated case – I’ve come across this time and time again, all over the world within major fund management companies. It’s as if the bombardment of news-flows via all the latest mobile gadgets is slowly inducing the masses into a coma!
During the last two-and-a-half years, stock markets, and particularly those of the U.S. have been trading into record highs – and following the BULLISH path outlined in WaveTrack International’s annual price forecasts for 2011 – revisit the forecast here:
https://www.wavetrack.com/reports-presentations/outlook-forecasts-2011.html
Were you able to benefit from this advance? – one aspect that returns to thoughts of ‘universal law’ is TRUST. Without trust in the analysis, how can anyone benefit from the results of a forecast that projects the S&P 500 trading higher by over by more than 700 points! Trust has to be earned, then experienced by each of us. In the 2011 annual S&P forecast, emphasis was given to another universal law, perhaps more of a universal ‘guideline’, that of Ratio and Proportion. We all know of the pattern repetition concept of the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) but we must also learn to trust in the dimensions of those 13 patterns that R.N.Elliott discovered. Not all patterns unfold to the perfection that is playing out in the zig zag advance that started the S&P’s advance from the March ’09 lows, but the BIG SECRET is that most actually do! Now it’s time to update the S&P’s progress, and many other stock markets from around the world!
We are pleased to announce the update of medium and long-term Elliott Wave STOCK INDICES price-forecasts is now available in the latest SEMI-ANNUAL video release. This is PART I of a two-part publication and it is absolutely FREE when you subscribe to the EW-Compass report. I won’t try and convince you that it’s worth every cent because in reality, it’s true value can’t be measured – it’s worthless to the unbeliever, priceless to its dualistic counter-part!…take a look at some of our subscriber’s comments from the last video series…
https://www.wavetrack.com//testimonials.html
Familiarise yourself with many of the major markets – there are 44 chart updates together with guidance from our analysis of cycle periodicities. It all add to an intriguing look at what is likely ahead during the next several months, but also the next several years.
The main content updates stock index markets of America, Europe, Asia and Australasia but more importantly, synchronises each of the ongoing Elliott Wave price patterns into a cohesive matrix of price development – this is very different to mainstream Elliott Wave analysis that continues to publish major contradictions and discrepancies comparing forecasts for U.S. and Asian indices.
The video also describes why Asian and Emerging Market indices have underperformed during the last few years relative to the U.S. and Europe, and why it will gain ground and even outperform later this year and onwards for another 12-18 months.
To gain IMMEDIATE ACCESS to watch the video, subscribe to the EW-Compass report, open the software and in the main-menu summary page, click on the PART I, STOCK INDICES link – it’s that simple!
And don’t forget to send us your comments once you’ve watched the video – we gain so much from your feedback and sharing this with everyone will inevitably take us all forward!
All the very best to you,
Peter Goodburn
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