WaveTrack International

Elliott Wave Financial Price Forecasting

EUR vs CHF | Time to let go!

by WaveTrack International| January 15, 2015 | No Comments

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has just announced it is abandoning the Swiss Franc’s peg to the Euro. This was originally planned over 3-years ago in order to shield the Swiss economy from the Sovereign Debt Crisis in Europe.

In early morning trading, the Euro has plunged lower from levels beforehand at 1.2000 to a low at 0.9608 – see chart. The SNB concluded that “enforcing and maintaining the minimum exchange rate for the Swiss franc against the euro is no longer justified”.

EUR vs CHF Currency

EUR vs CHF

The Elliott Wave count describes a long-term triple zig zag decline in downside progress from the October year-1939 highs of 3.499. What you see in this chart is the third and final zig zag sequence beginning from the Oct.’07 high of 1.6828. Cycle wave A ended a five wave impulse decline into the August ’11 low at 1.0068 just prior to the SNB stepping in to begin the weakening of the Swiss Franc. Note the double ‘golden-section’ levels marked with the red phi symbols at the high of intermediate wave (4) and the low of wave (5) – these are standard fib-price-ratio measurements that define the ultimate downside target levels that ended primary wave 5 at 1.0068.

Later, wave B ended counter-trend rallies into the May ’13 high at 1.2650. The gradual decline since has been the precursor to today’s collapse as part of cycle wave C. As we project out for the next few years, ultimate downside targets measure towards 0.7411-0.7329 but this is not expected to be tested until late year-2019.

Category: Currencies, Elliott Wave, Elliott Wave Charts, Elliott Wave Patterns, Elliott Wave Principle, EUR vs CHF, Financial Forecasting, FX, WaveTrack International

2015 FORECAST VIDEO has just been released!

by m.tamosauskas| January 12, 2015 | 2 Comments

NEW_YORK_SKYLINE_Outlook_-2015_FaceBook_960px_324px

Stock Indices (PART I) – Original S&P upside forecasts published October 2009 and updated in July 2012 forecast levels higher by +87% – those numbers are now being tested! In this video, you will discover:

  • how this EW pattern and forecast was constructed
  • why the Elliott Wave count was so accurate and
  • why current levels have reached a decisive crossroad for 2015 and beyond

The next phase of WaveTrack’s ‘Inflation-Pop’ is set to begin for other asset classes, but in this video, you will discover some amazing price-forecasts for U.S., European and Asian stock markets – how they interact and what price levels we can expect to see during the next year and beyond! This video is a ‘must see’ in terms of Elliott Wave because it will slice through mainstream misconceptions and give you a precise guide for what to expect during the next few years – let our Track Record speak for itself!

Subscribe to the Elliott Wave Compass report and view the video absolutely FREE!

P.S. Part II will be published soon – Commodities & Currencies

Category: Australia ASX 200, DJ Utilities, Dow Jones 30, Elliott Wave, Emerging Markets, Eurostoxx 50, Hang Seng, India-CNX Nifty 50, Nasdaq 100, Nikkei 225, Russell 2000, Russia RTS, S&P 500, WaveTrack International
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USD vs YEN | Perfect Fib-Price-Ratio Harmonics!

by WaveTrack International| January 9, 2015 | No Comments

Following Tuesday’s US$/Yen’s reversal-signature from the corrective low at 11806, the larger uptrend developing from the mid-Dec.’14 low of 11556 continues higher. This next sequence of the advance from 11806 ran into short-term resistance during Thursday’s session at 11997 but the overnight sell-off into early trading Friday is again showing itself unfolding into a classical Elliott Wave corrective pattern, in this case, a double zig zag – see chart.

USD/YEN | Perfect Fib-Price-Ratio Harmonics!

USD vs YEN | Perfect Fib-Price-Ratio Harmonics!

The double zig zag is labelled (a)-(b)-(c)-(x)-(a)-(b)-(c) and assigned sub-minuette degree according to our proprietary nomenclature, but the important aspect that defines the double zig zag is the initial three price-swings contained in the first zig zag ending at 11938 and then a deep corrective rally as wave (x) that overlaps the initial decline of wave (a). This ensures this pattern as a correction within an established uptrend and not part of a five wave impulse downtrend.

And to confirm the double zig zag pattern, from wave (x)’s high at 11987, another three wave pattern unfolded downwards, ending at 11917. Importantly, fib-price-ratio measurements confirm its completion at 11917 – one of the more common geometric ratios can be used by extending the first (a)-(b)-(c) zig zag to 11938 by a fib. 38.2% ratio – this projects to the exact low at 11917. From this, we can determine that a short-term corrective downswing has ended, with the larger/aggregate uptrend now set to resume.

Category: Currencies, Elliott Wave, Elliott Wave Charts, Elliott Wave Patterns, Elliott Wave Principle, fib-price-ratio, Fibonacci Trading, FX, Ralph Nelson Elliott, USD/YEN, WaveTrack International
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Nikkei-US$/Yen confirms uptrend

by WaveTrack International| January 6, 2015 | No Comments

It’s no secret that there remains a positive correlation between the Nikkei stock index and the US$/Yen currency pair – see chart. But what is interesting at this time, especially when Crude Oil has again made headline news following another decline and U.S. stock markets like the S&P has given up a good proportion of its gains from the mid-December lows of 1972.53 is the fact that both the Nikkei and the US$/Yen are suggesting an uptrend is in progress.

Going back to the initial decline from the early-December highs, the Nikkei (futures) unfolded into a archetypal corrective 3-wave zig zag pattern from 18205 that ended into that mid-Dec.’14 low at 16525. This pattern is verified by using a simple fib-price-ratio measurement – extending wave [a] of the zig zag to 17155 by a fib. 61.8% ratio projects the low for wave [c] at 16525 (see inset chart, left). The extent and pattern of the

Nikkei and US$/Yen chart

Nikkei_USD/YEN

next upswing is important for two reasons – first, it has adopted a five wave subdivision (that’s bullish) – second, it breaks the interim high (wave [b] above 17680) of the preceding downswing so as to eliminate a more bearish 1-2-1-2 count from the Dec.’14 high (again, bullish). Next, the more recent decline has unfolded into another 3-wave corrective zig zag pattern that began from 18050 – extending wave (a) by a fib. 61.8% ratio projects downside targets for wave (c) to 16829+/-. This would be the idealised area to complete the correction and set the stage for the next advance to higher highs. Naturally, this bullish scenario would be negated below the mid-Dec.’14 low at 16525.

The US$/Yen has unfolded into an almost identical pattern as compared to the Nikkei (see inset chart, right). A 3-wave corrective zig zag decline unfolded from the early-Dec.’14 high of 12185 ending into the mid-Dec.’14 low at 11556. Extending wave a by a fib. 61.8% ratio projects the low for wave c to 11556 – perfectly! A five wave impulse pattern followed, and again trading above the secondary retracement level of 11956 to eliminate a bearish count from the early-Dec.’14 high. The 12083 high ends the 1st wave in an ongoing five wave advance – a 2nd wave retracement has since begun labelled [a]-[b]-[c]. Extending wave [a] by a fib. 38.2% ratio projects wave [c] to 11812+/- (not quite there yet!). This converges with the fib. 50% retracement level to create hardened support. Should levels test this convergence then stage ‘price-rejection’ and then a ‘reversal signature’, then confirmation of a more sustained upswing will be triggered. This bullish outlook will only be negated below the mid-Dec.’14 low at 11556.

We are currently using these contracts as a ‘proxy’ for the other major stock markets, like the S&P to determine if the current decline from the 2093.55 high is also acting out as a 2nd wave corrective decline. If the Nikkei and US$/Yen patterns have anything to say about it, then we should expect to see an end to the current sell-off sometime during this week.

Category: Elliott Wave, Elliott Wave Charts, Elliott Wave Principle, Nikkei 225, Ralph Nelson Elliott, WaveTrack International
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A Very Merry Christmas & Happy New Year 2015

by WaveTrack International| December 23, 2014 | No Comments

We are pleased that you visit us and would like to take the opportunity to thank you for sharing the enthusiasm for Elliott Wave and R.N. Elliott Nature’s Law. Stay tuned in the New Year 2015 – as a lot of fascinating new insights are waiting for you. Warmest wishes to all of you from WaveTrack International’s Elliott Wave Team.

Merry Christmas

Merry Christmas & a Joyous New Year 2015!

Category: Uncategorized
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Season Greetings!

by m.tamosauskas| December 19, 2014 | 1 Comment

letter

 

 

 

 

This coming Saturday’s edition, the 20th December ’14 will be the last Elliott Wave Compass report before the Christmas holiday festivities begin. We shall take the opportunity to rest the team a little during the following week and so the next edition will be written on Friday 2nd January ’15 for release on Saturday morning of the 3rd January.

Video Series – Part I & II – the latest long/medium-term forecasts are currently getting a complete makeover. For the last several years, the ‘inflation-pop’ upside forecasts for the S&P and most related U.S. indices have unfolded according to plan but it’s only now that targets towards 2140.00+/- are being approached. The Nasdaq has also completed a near maximum retracement of its preceding decline from those dot.com highs of March 2000 and yet, despite this, it is difficult for us to imagine a secular-bear market decline beginning from current levels – why? Well, when commodities began their synchronised recovery from the financial-crisis lows of end-Dec.’08, key economic indicators like Copper, Lead, Zinc and many other core industrial metals like Platinum unfolded higher into 2011 peaks whilst unfolding into five wave impulse patterns. Corrective patterns have since unfolded, some have ended already whilst others like crude oil are only now approaching completion. Precious metals have a different wave structure but confirm the same outcome, evident in expanding flat pattern for GDX and XAU – this signals that a very bullish upswing is set to begin in 2015. This contradiction with our original S&P forecasts from several years ago is now being addressed and will be published in the latest video series just as soon as its ready – hopefully, by early January – naturally, we’ll keep you posted on this!

And so, wherever you are, whatever your faith, we hope that your New Year will be joyous and successful – P.G.

Season’s greetings and wishing you success for 2015 – Peter Goodburn, Kamil, Martynas and most important of all, our diligent Support Team members!

 

Category: Uncategorized

Preparing for a year-end video update! (II)

by m.tamosauskas| December 18, 2014 | No Comments

The year-end is knocking on the door and we are preparing our annual video update of medium/long-term Elliott Wave forecasts for institutional clients and EW-Compass subscribers. Publication release is scheduled over the New Year. We can promise a few surprises this year with some new medium/long-term counts introduced that we haven’t shown in the past. As always, the update will include many global stock market indices, currencies, interest rates and probably the most important asset class for 2015, commodities! The main theme under discussion is the approach of upside targets for U.S. stock indices initially forecast over 4-years ago – and its relationship to the upcoming 2nd phase of the ‘inflation-pop’  for commodities – also, how do these asset classes fit together and what trends will dominate during the next few years? In the meantime, you are welcome to review some extracts from the previous video update:

Category: Elliott Wave, Elliott Wave Principle, Financial Forecasting, Hang Seng, Ralph Nelson Elliott, video, WaveTrack International
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India CNX Nifty 50 Elliott Wave update

by m.tamosauskas| December 17, 2014 | 1 Comment

09_CNX Nifty 50_141217

Engaged in a 4th wave within the larger five wave expanding-impulse sequence, the Nifty 50 is now approaching interim support towards 7897.75+/- that is derived by a fib. 61.8% ‘golden-section’ cut of the entire anticipated 8626.95-7477.85 range. An intra-hourly reversal is required to initiate a temporary rally for (minute) wave b within minor wave iv. prior to continuation lower during the next several weeks ahead. For the time being, ultimate downside towards 7477.85 can be maintained but should the Nifty accelerate below the interim support at 7897.75+/-, it would be indicative of a deeper decline for minor wave iv. – a fib. 50% retracement measures to 7154.10+/-.

Category: Elliott Wave, Elliott Wave Principle, Financial Forecasting, India-CNX Nifty 50, WaveTrack International
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Crude Oil Elliott Wave Update

by m.tamosauskas| December 11, 2014 | No Comments

oil141211

Crude Oil prices are stretching lower during the last week adding to recent accelerated declines that began from June’s secondary highs. By every measure, prices are now in a state of being oversold with sellers reacting to higher stockpiles and production levels from OPEC remaining unchanged. But within the context of the preceding upswing that began from the Dec.’08 low of 33.20 ending into the May ’11 high of 114.83, this current decline represents the balancing corrective phase, a necessary action that unfolds as the precursor to the next growth period, or literally, the next advance. Downside targets can vary in such conditions of balancing corrections but commonly adhere to price-measurements derived from the Fibonacci summation series. In this case, since first levels at 63.68+/- have just been exceeded slightly, the next support is at 57.58+/-. This is derived by extending the first sequence of the decline that unfolded into the Oct.’11 low at 74.95 by a Fibonacci 61.8% ratio. The second phase of the ‘inflation-pop’ therefore remains on schedule with ultimate upside price targets remaining unchanged towards 183.00-84.47+/-.

Copper and Gold are nearing completion and it might be that synchronised lows will deviate slightly by a couple of months. But this would not have any latent effect of changing the up-coming effect of the ‘inflation-pop’.

‘Inflation-pop’ Update
In our ‘inflation-pop’ series of articles, we have cooperated with the renowned economist Gail Fosler of the GFG LLC advisory company (New York). You can read more about the economic demographics and implications of WaveTrack International’s inflation-pop scenario in her latest posts here:

http://www.gailfosler.com/interview-peter-goodburn

 

Category: Copper, Crude oil, Elliott Wave, Elliott Wave Charts, Elliott Wave Patterns, Elliott Wave Principle, Financial Forecasting, Gold, Ralph Nelson Elliott, WaveTrack International
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Preparing for a year-end video update!

by m.tamosauskas| December 10, 2014 | No Comments

The year-end is knocking on the door and we are preparing our annual video update of medium/long-term Elliott Wave forecasts for institutional clients and EW-Compass subscribers. Publication release is scheduled over the New Year. We can promise a few surprises this year with some new medium/long-term counts introduced that we haven’t shown in the past. As always, the update will include many global stock market indices, currencies, interest rates and probably the most important asset class for 2015, commodities! The main theme under discussion is the approach of upside targets for U.S. stock indices initially forecast over 4-years ago – and its relationship to the upcoming 2nd phase of the ‘inflation-pop’  for commodities – also, how do these asset classes fit together and what trends will dominate during the next few years? In the meantime, you are welcome to review some extracts from the previous video update:

 

Category: Agnico Eagle Mines, Australia ASX 200, Copper, Crude oil, Dow Jones 30, Emerging Markets, Euro / US$, GDX, Gold, Nasdaq 100, Nasdaq Composite, Nikkei 225, Russell 2000, Russia RTS, S&P 500, Silver, Uncategorized, US$ Index
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About WTI

WaveTrack International is a financial price forecasting company dedicated to the Elliott Wave principle and work of the R.N. Elliott. Clients include Investment Banks, Pension Funds, Total/Absolute-Return/Hedge Funds, Sovereign Wealth Funds, Corporate and Market-Making/Trading institutions and informed individuals -- & just about anyone who is affected by directional price change.

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