Gold – Silver Ratio (Elliott Wave Update)

by WaveTrack International| June 23, 2015 | No Comments

The advance that began from the mid-May ’15 low of 69.09 is taking the form of a five wave expanding-impulse pattern, labelled [i]-[ii]-[iii]-[iv]-[v] in minuette degree. The ratio might be already completed its advance into the recent high of 74.52, although a higher high is still possible. Despite this however, the pattern development looks very mature and soon we do expect a balancing phase to begin with downside objectives measured towards 71.75-71.15+/-. This means that the gold – silver relationship will change – silver is expected to outperform relative to gold for the next few weeks.

It’s not over until it’s over (S&P 500 Elliott Wave update)

by m.tamosauskas| June 10, 2015 | No Comments

The decline during the last weeks extended to a low of 2072.14 on Tuesday, but there is a high probability for the S&P to begin another round of advances from current levels and Wednesday’s price action so far has confirmed this idea. The reasoning behind it is twofold – first, critical support at 2067.93 has been approached but not broken. This is typical for a 2nd wave (in a contracting diagonal, too) as price action scares out many investors before the larger 3rd wave begins. Second, European benchmark indices like the Eurostoxx 50 and Xetra Dax have traded into their idealised support target areas. This points to a possible conclusion for these indices and therefore reinforces the near-term bullishness for the S&P. Note that the 2067.93 level also serves as an important cut-off point to differentiate between two types of pattern – a break below there would significantly increase the likelihood that minuette wave [b] has not ended yet but is unfolding into an expanding flat sequence.

Interested in longer-term Elliott Wave forecasts? Simply subscribe to the EW-Compass report to get even more – we just released our mid-year STOCK INDICES VIDEO!

The Twilight Zone for Stock Indices (Secular-Bear vs. Secular-Bull)

by m.tamosauskas| June 5, 2015 | 2 Comments

MID-YEAR (2015) ELLIOTT WAVE VIDEO UPDATE of GLOBAL MARKETS

Dear Elliott Wave Enthusiast!

• how the original forecasts were constructed and what they mean for today’s levels
• why the current period forms a ‘Price & Time’ continuum – the ‘TWILIGHT ZONE’
• how to differentiate between a SECULAR-BEAR and a SECULAR-BULL

Aussie $ / New Zealand $ (Elliott Wave Update)

by m.tamosauskas| June 2, 2015 | No Comments

Back in October ’14 we advocated that Aussie$ / New Zealand$ is about to begin the final sell-off within a larger decline that began from the March ’11 high of 1.3800. This downswing was expected to unfold into a five wave expanding-impulse pattern, labelled 1-2-3-4-5 in primary degree with ultimate downside objectives measured towards 1.0247-0162:

The downside targets were measured by using a fib. 61.8% correlation ratio between the net decline of waves 1 to 3 and wave 5. This is our common Elliott Wave fib-price-ratio for expanding-impulse patterns. Without it, it would be difficult to measure such an accurate support level, which after some months, turns out to be the exact outcome:

Prices responded precisely with a recorded low at 1.0020 in April ’15 and the following price rejection to the upside suggests a multi-year decline has completed into this low!

Elliott Wave pattern of the month (US$ Index)

by m.tamosauskas| May 22, 2015 | No Comments

US-Dollar Index

This month, we monitored a rare pattern that was described by R. N. Elliott himself in 1946. It is a variation of the standard flat sequence that is characterised by a 3-3-5 subdivision of its three price swings. The important difference to a ‘standard’ horizontal flat is that the ‘b’ wave of the pattern falls short of the beginning of the ‘a’ wave but the ‘c’ wave exceeds the beginning of wave ‘b’. This produces a ‘slanting’ appearance.

We spotted this pattern in the US$ index as it declined from its March high of 100.39 into a low of 96.17 in a three wave manner. This was followed by a three price swing advance to 99.99. For an Elliott Wave practitioner, this would have implied a double zig zag decline from 100.39 but the accelerative decline from 99.99 clearly showed the characteristics of a five wave impulse sequence. Therefore, the ‘slanting flat’ was adopted in our 6^th of May issue that showed an idealised completion level to 93.65 based off a fib. 61.8% extension of the initial three price-swing decline to 96.17.

During the last several trading days, this target was approached and the US$ began a multi-day reversal. Although it dipped slightly lower, this was still in line with the larger outlook – the entire downswing from 100.39 pinpointed the area of ‘4^th preceding’ at 9325+/-, an important retracement level for impulse waves. Now, the US$ index has verified the reversal and is poised for continued upside in the weeks ahead.

Would you sell it here? (Toyota Motor Corp. Elliott Wave analysis)

by m.tamosauskas| May 14, 2015 | No Comments

Last year we were asking “Would you buy it here?”: http://blog.wavetrack.com/toyota-motor-corp-elliott-wave-analysis/. Soon enough, Toyota Motor Corp. staged an upside reversal signature and the following advance unfolded into a five wave expanding-impulse pattern with completion into the Oct.’14 high of 6559. Remember the triple fib-price-ratio resistance level near 6550? This was almost the exact level there prices stopped advancing and began the 2^nd wave balancing process:

The second wave ended near the fib. 61.8% retracement level setting up the stage for an accelerative wave 3 to begin. The gapping-up price development confirmed this forecast. Today the entire five wave sequence in minor degree is shown has completed into the recent high of 8783:

Again, it was easy to forecast basis two converging fib-price-ratio measurements that provided a strong resistance. Now we asking another question: “Would you sell it here?”.  Our Elliott Wave analysis suggests the risk is huge for a larger decline beginning very soon.

Lonmin PLC begins its final stage of a multi-year bear market

by m.tamosauskas| May 10, 2015 | 1 Comment

Lonmin, the third-largest platinum miner by output, is struggling with its business since precious metals remain in their bear markets. Platinum is at its lowest price in almost six years. Investments cuts, workface layoffs and strikes become a new normal in this sector. However, one should keep in mind that precious metals are in their final bear-market phase and looking further ahead, our ‘inflation-pop’ scenario should dramatically change the situation in a mining sector. The Lonmin is expected to stage a final sell-off during the next few months prior to beginning the new bull market. Basis Elliott Wave analysis, the advance that began from the March ’15 low of 105.70 unfolded into a single zig zag pattern, labelled a.-b.-c. in minor degree with a completion into the recent high of 157.50. Note a fib. 61.8%/38.2% ratio within a single zig zag pattern. The recent spike and an immediate reversal to the downside suggest the final sell-off has already begun from the 157.50 high:

S&P 500 – Join the ‘Being There’ moment in Financial History!

by WaveTrack International| May 4, 2015 | No Comments

S&P 500 – Join the ‘Being There’ moment in Financial History!

Have you wondered what direction the S&P is unfolding into lately? Since the late-March low formed at 2045.50, the index has traded to new record highs but it’s not been a straightforward advance – quite the contrary in fact! ‘Volatility’ seems to be a more accurate description of its upward progress as each advance is followed by vicious pullbacks – these are so sharp and deep that you wonder whether a new downtrend is about to kick-in?

If you’ve been trading the short side of the market during this time, you’ve most likely jumped in and out several times to the point of exhaustion, exasperation%#! But wait!…in these seemingly chaotic price moves lies perfect geometric symmetry. Using a combination of Elliott Wave pattern identification and Fibonacci-Price-Ratio matrices we’ve unravelled the intricacies of each wave sequence since the advance began and moulded them into a clear and concise forecast of ongoing price development! No more guessing – this forecast is a ‘must-see’.

It’s a ‘must-see’ because it probably comes at one of the most important junctures in financial history. Witnessing this next sequence of the stock market is akin to ‘being there’ when it happened, and you’ll be telling the story to your friends for a long time to come.

These recent movements of the S&P are not only completing the final Elliott Wave patterns from the March lows, not even the five wave impulse sequences from the Oct.’14 lows, but larger, three wave patterns from the March ’09 lows. That makes it special.

If you want to see how each of these ‘three’ time-series are threaded together, then log-in immediately to your EW-Compass subscription and view our latest ‘Week Ahead’ video. In there, you’ll be able to watch Peter Goodburn’s latest take of the S&P’s recent activity, how it is likely to progress over the next two/three week period and how it integrates into the larger patterns forming from the Oct.’14 and March ’09 lows.

A major turning point is coming up and you really must be prepared. The three time-series of the S&P are supplemented with an updated look at last year’s 91 month (7.58 year) cycle – also, there are updates and commentary for the Dow Jones (DJIA), Nasdaq 100, Eurostoxx 50, Xetra Dax, Shanghai Composite, Nifty 50, Nikkei, ASX 200, US$ index, Euro/US$, Stlg/US$, US$/Yen, US10yr yield, De10yr yield, Gold, Silver, Crude oil and Brent oil.

Make sure your subscription is up-to-date – or click here to renew!

All the very best,

WaveTrack’s Elliott Wave Team

P.S. the video streams for 25-minutes – enjoy!

Betroleo Brasileiro price doubles within a month!

by m.tamosauskas| April 28, 2015 | No Comments

Two months ago we published Petroleo Brasileiro forecast calling for a major bottom to develop during the next few weeks. Two downside targets were measured basis our fib-price-ratio analysis and as it stands out the bottom was found near the lower range of it with a recorded low at 4.90. The following rejection to the upside and an immediate price-doubling are suggesting the completion of a 7-year counter-trend decline into this low. Step by step the ‘inflation-pop’ scenario is starting its course and commodity related assets, just like Petroleo Brasileiro, are expected to benefit the most:

Short-term, the advance that began from the 4.90 low is taking a form of a five wave pattern, labelled as intermediate wave (1). A test towards 12.88+/- is expected during the next several weeks prior to beginning the balancing phase of the preceding advance (4.90-12.88+/-):

Keep in touch, we have much more to show! Or better – subscribe to the EW-Compass report to see how the ‘inflation-pop’ scenario is expected to develop in other asset classes.

AUDUSD – testing an important support level!

by m.tamosauskas| April 22, 2015 | No Comments

In the last weeks, we witnessed a spectacular bottoming formation on the AUD/US$. The currency pair staged a nice expanding flat before pinpointing its long-term downside objective that was measured by our fib-price-ratio measurements. The following strong price rejection once again has proved the validity of these measurements. There is now a high probability that the AUD/US$ could have completed a multi-year decline:

About WTI

WaveTrack International is a financial price forecasting company dedicated to the Elliott Wave principle and work of the R.N. Elliott. Clients include Investment Banks, Pension Funds, Total/Absolute-Return/Hedge Funds, Sovereign Wealth Funds, Corporate and Market-Making/Trading institutions and informed individuals -- & just about anyone who is affected by directional price change.

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