US Dollar in Peril? – FXStreet Interview

by WaveTrack International| November 12, 2015 | No Comments

In this exciting interview with Dale Pinkert – a Former Member of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange whose market forecasts have been aired on Financial Television and Radio station including CNBC Peter Goodburn elaborates his views on Elliott Wave, muses with Dale on the cyclicity behind historical market events and the US Dollar. Listen to this amazingly insightful interview here:

Thank you FXStreet and Dale Pinkert!

Don’t forget – our bi-weekly Elliott Wave Compass report features many short-term updates of various asset classes.
Successful trading with WaveTrack International
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How Fibonacci Price Ratios (FPR’s) Evolved

by WaveTrack International| November 10, 2015 | No Comments

Trader’s World magazine has just published another of Peter Goodburn’s Elliott Wave articles in its latest #61st edition and you can see it absolutely FREE in cooperation between WaveTrack International and Trader’s World editor Larry Jacobs.

We’ve interacted with many of you, our members and subscribers over the last few months on the subject of overlaying Fibonacci-price-ratios to the Elliott Wave counts we publish. As Peter commented in this latest article ‘ I rather think of ratio and proportion and pattern and form as the two sides of the same coin – one cannot exist without the other – neither is dependent, independent but co-exist in interdependency. Together they increase the probability of correct forecasting exponentially. Some do degrade and seemingly run short, but this is by far a minority, something a good strategy can take care of’.

The article is an extract from a larger, as yet, unpublished work that Peter wrote back in 2012 as part of the up-coming WaveSearch Tutorials. It begins with some interesting history about R.N.Elliott’s introduction to the Natural Laws of science & metaphysics by Charles J. Collins who sponsored his publications of ‘The Wave Principle’ in a series of articles for the Financial World magazine in 1939.

Later, it follows one of Peter’s several successful ‘long-range’ forecasts – this one, for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), published in early 2004 and how his specific methodology and application of FPR’s captured the Dow’s upsurge into the October 2007 highs, and the subsequent collapse during the Lehman crisis that formed lows in 2009.

For those of you fascinated by the geometric symmetry found hiding within the evolving nature of price activity, this is a must read! You can view it immediately by visiting: www.tradersworld.com

Just turn to page 49 to view!

Sincerely,
WaveTrack’s Support Team

EURO vs. USD – Success Pattern of the Month

by WaveTrack International| October 30, 2015 | No Comments

A very impressive pattern sequence that we identified this month is shown for the Euro/US$ (published in WaveTrack’s Elliott Wave Compass report). By mid-October, the Euro had already advanced more than three cents from its late-September low and was threatening the mid-September high of 1.1461. Conventional technical analysis at this point might have implied the possibility of upside acceleration once the 1.1461 high would be broken. But our Elliott Wave analysis, based on proprietary fib-price-ratio measurements, helped to almost pinpoint the achieved high and forewarn of an accelerative decline.

The reasoning behind it was based on a thorough examination of the price action of the last eight weeks and, equally important, of the last several months. When looking back to the May ’15 high, we were able to identify a three price-swing decline into the July low followed by a three price-swing advance into the August high. Basis the preceding (larger) five wave advance into the May high, it was clear (for an Elliottician) that this 3-3 sequence would have to be followed by a downswing. Moreover, as the correction following the impulse to 1.1468 was in a 2nd wave position, it was also clear the downswing would have to take the shape of an impulse decline (because a 3-3-3 can only occur as part of a 3-3-3-3-3 triangle – and this can happen only in a 4th wave).

Thus, we were ready to pull the trigger by mid-October when the Euro was attacking the 1.1461 high. Measured targets defined the 1.1450-1.1517 zone as a highly probable reversal area. Look how the Euro reacted to the predetermined fib-price resistance levels! It reversed from the 1.1496 high and almost instantly took up so much downside momentum that after a couple of days it was clear something big had occurred! Under Elliott Wave theory, it was clear that the Euro had now entered the 3rd wave within the five wave decline from 1.1712; and this five wave decline was the finalising leg of the previously described 3-3 sequence. What to expect next is shown on the chart – enjoy the ride into lower lows!

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Final decline for the CRB-Cash Index (Fibonacci-Price-Ratio [FPR] Tutorial)

by m.tamosauskas| October 25, 2015 | No Comments

Despite some great percentage gains in commodities since prices formed lows last August, the subsequent advances have mostly traded higher into Elliott Wave counter-trend patterns. This is especially evident in the CRB-Cash index. This is a proxy for many of its components including base metals and energy contracts like crude oil, and whilst we expect an imminent completion of the entire declines that began from the year-2011 highs, one additional but final sell-off now seems inevitable.

The examination of this final stage of declines for the CRB-Cash index has also revealed some archetypal Elliott Wave patterning and adherence to Fibonacci-Price-Ratios – it therefore makes an excellent ‘real-time’ study of price development according to two of the Elliott Wave Principle’s (EWP’s) most important aspects, that of ‘structure’ and ‘dimension’.

The CRB-Cash index staged a counter-trend upswing from the March ’15 low of 407.21 ending into the May high at 439.00. Its structural composition has unfolded into a typical three price-swing sequence, the definition of an EW zig zag pattern. Furthermore, dimension is evident applying Fib-Price-Ratio studies – extending wave a (ending at the f phi symbol) by a fib. 61.8% ratio projects the high for wave c of the pattern to within a single point of its actual conclusion at 439.00.

The following decline extends the overall five wave impulse decline in progress from the April ’14 high of 569.70. This is labelled a 5^th wave, designated minor wave v. five and it must develop with a five wave component labelled 1–2–3–4–5 and assigned in minute degree. Its downward progress has adhered to several typical characteristics of a developing five wave expanding-impulse pattern. First, the ‘rule of alternation’ where waves 2 and 4 differ in their overall structure – wave 2 unfolds into a complex ‘expanding flat’ whilst wave 4 unfolds into a simple ‘zig zag’. Wave 3 visibly ‘expands’ the price action and is much larger than wave 1 – it adheres to Elliott’s concept that third waves are commonly the largest but never the shortest in the pattern. Wave 3 subdivides into a perfectly formed five wave structure ending into the August low at 382.09.

• Wave 4 unfolds into a symmetrically formed three wave zig zag pattern. Extending wave [a] by a fib. 61.8% ratio projects a terminal high for wave [c] to within a point-and-a-half of the actual level traded at 409.48.
• Dimensionally, wave 2 is a fib. 76.4% retracement of wave 1 – wave 4 is a fib. 50% retracement of waves 1–3.

The projection for a final fifth wave decline, labelled minute wave 5 that began from 409.48 is the element where EW Rules & Guidelines are practiced in the real world, real-time. To determine the amplitude of wave 5, two common fib-price-ratios are used. These are selected over-and-above others because of the depth of the fourth wave to 409.48.

• The first is where a Fibonacci ‘extension’ ratio is used measuring waves 1–4 and extending this by fib. 161.8% to project the low for wave 5 to 365.86+/-.
• Second, a Fibonacci ‘correlative’ ratio taking waves 1–3 (= 100%) and multiplying this by a fib. 61.8% ratio for the measurement of wave 5 to 375.80+/-.

And so we can see that from a combination of structure/form and dimension/symmetry, a viable determination of ‘trend’ and ‘amplitude’ can be made. Hope this was helpful, if you enjoined – you can find more EW tutorials in our website.

More expensive sugar in the months ahead?

by m.tamosauskas| October 19, 2015 | No Comments

Sugar is getting more and more expensive! The decline that began from the Feb.’11 high of 36.08 has unfolded in to a five wave expanding-impulse pattern with completion into the recent low of 10.13, where the net decline of wave 1 to 3 and wave 5 contains a fib. 100%/61.8% correlation ratio. The following counter-trend advance has staged a plus +40% rally to the upside and basis our Elliott Wave analysis it does look incomplete. More expensive sugar in the months ahead?

Lonmin PLC confirms a reversal signature

by m.tamosauskas| October 18, 2015 | No Comments

Over a month ago, Lonmin PLC has started to surprise most of market participants with a sharp advance from the 14.50 low (see the previous forecast here). This upswing has extended up to 46.50 level, producing a stunning +220% price increase in a very short period of time. Moreover, this advance unfolded into a five wave expanding-impulse pattern, labelled i.-ii.-iii.-iv.-v. in minor degree with almost a perfect fib-price-ratio measurement – extending the net advance of waves i. to iv. by a fib. 61.8% ratio to project upside objectives for wave v. This confirms our reversal signature to the upside, suggesting much more will come in the months/years ahead!

Peter Goodburn on Elliott Wave, Diagonal Patterns & a Killer Stock Pick (52Traders)

by m.tamosauskas| October 8, 2015 | No Comments

Peter Goodburn, the founding partner of WaveTrack International, and his trading experience spans back to the late 1970’s working then in the commodities business for exchange members and their clients. In those earlier years of his career, he created the first OTC (over-the-counter) copper option product based upon the comex (New York) contract around the mid-eighties, and in the same period, devised Opval, an option-evaluation software program that is currently used in many of the major market-making institutions of today. Recently, Peter was invited to join a ‘52Traders’ podcast to share his experience with wider audience. Read or listen the entire interview here: http://52traders.com/peter-goodburn/ . Find out why Elliott Wave analysis is used by many institutional managers nowadays. What are the most important aspects beginning using the EW for trading and investing? Killer stock pick and much more!

Lonmin PLC like a phoenix arising from the ashes

by m.tamosauskas| October 5, 2015 | No Comments

The devastating decline that began from the July ’07 high of 4400 has reached as low as 14.50 in Sep.’15. In our latest update of this equity we were looking for a minimum downside target below the March ’15 low of 105.70 but it has extended much lower. Despite this however, the recent price development shows a sign of life – Lonmin PLC has advanced from the 14.50 low to above 23.00.  Basis revised Elliott Wave analysis, the decline from the 4400 high into the 14.50 low is best described as a five wave expanding-impulse pattern, suggesting the following advance will unfold into a corrective sequence. It has a potential to advance much higher, but we stay conservative here with a call of a fib. 38.2% retracement level of the preceding decline targeting 128.00+/- in the years ahead. The mining sector becomes more and more interesting by each day, join us to find out more http://goo.gl/hQNwOu

Shemitah & the Federal Reserve

by m.tamosauskas| September 15, 2015 | No Comments

The 29^th day of Elul that marks the conclusion of the Shemitah occurred last Sunday, on the 13^th September – the first day of trading, Monday 14^th got underway without incident – phew! Although our latest ‘The Week Ahead’ video expected it to be a non-event on the day, it may yet have repercussions as our attention now draws ever closer to Thursday’s interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve in its latest FOMC meeting. The rate decision will be announced at 14:00 ET, that’s 11:00 on the West coast, 15:00 S. America, 19:00 London, 20:00 Europe, 22:00 Middle East, 02:00 am (Friday) in Shanghai and 03:00 am Tokyo.

Eurodollar 3mth Futures

We thought to take a look at the US Eurodollar 3mth futures contract to gauge whether the Federal Reserve would surprise and leave rates on hold, or hike by +0.25% as consensus seems to be heading.

This first chart depicts the June ’16 futures contract engaged in a three price-swing (wave) zig zag upswing from the Sep.’13 low of 97.47 – see fig #1. Each of the two advancing sequences measure equally to 99.39 – this is a common geometric recurrence for the zig zag pattern that increases the probability of correct identification. Note that the two upswings look different – this is because the first to 98.73 has unfolded into a five wave ‘expanding-impulse’ pattern whereas the second from 98.12 has taken the form of a five wave ‘diagonal-impulse’ pattern. This is known as ‘pattern alternation’ and is a typical function of the zig zag.

Another interesting fib-price-ratio exists – extending the preceding decline (May-September ’13) from 99.03-97.47 by a fib. 23.6% ratio projects the zig zag upswing ending to 99.40+/-.

The current August high at 99.34 has come so close to these to calculations that it’s enough to draw some conclusions – that the upside is limited – but also this – THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK THAT PRICES JERK SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER.

The larger picture is even more inspiring, but we have to leave something special for our subscribers. The bigger picture and its implications are now available to all our EW-Compass subscribers.

SPECIALEW-COMPASS REPORT OFFER by
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Where can I download the Shemitah Report? Login/Subscribe to the EW-Compass report. A new window with the report will open – here click on any of the charts or ‘View online report’ and on the right side click on the tab ‘Specials’! Here are various long-term reports ready for download.

 

Investment and Timing – Shemitah – The 7-Year Cycle

by WaveTrack International| September 8, 2015 | No Comments

Something important awaits you at the bottom of this message – but first, read on…

As many of you are aware, WaveTrack International’s application of the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) is typically ‘purist’ in the way we use R.N. Elliott’s original guidelines as outlined in his two monographs, ‘The Wave Principle’ (1938) and ‘Nature’s Law’ (1946). Within the basic precepts of action/re-action processes are two branches of thinking and belief that form the basis of its workings – that price action is derived from swings in mass-psychology and the other, taking the form of Nature’s Law, governed by universal principles of number, ratio and proportion with the recognition that stock market price development is part of a much broader sequential growth/decay pattern that touches further into mankind’s awareness of his very existence.

Now, that last bit is quite a revelation because not all of us are at the point where we can accept the possibility that price development, whether this is in the stock market, bonds, currencies or commodity markets, is pre-determined – that certain ‘Laws’ are in operation which dictate the progress of anything, let alone the markets! Personally, I have absolutely no doubts because I’ve seen and witnessed real-life examples of the ‘Principles’ at work and have successfully tested them to my own satisfaction over the last 25 years. The US$ dollar index provides a good example.

Our historical data begins from the year 1660, but the period from the end of the America Civil War (1865) when the ‘Greenback’ was first accepted as the country’s dominant dollar began a perfectly formed five wave impulse pattern that ended into a final high in the year 1985, together with perfect Fibonacci measurements (120 year cycle – 2 x 60 years, W.D. Gann). I often use this example when I meet sceptics because the period encompasses fundamental and historical events that would seemingly ‘interrupt’ or ‘destroy’ the evolving pattern – such events as the second phase of the Industrial Revolution, the destruction of the European Monarchies, WWI, the Great Depression, WWII and so on.

Another example is the multi-year forecast published of the Dow Jones Index in year 2004. The chart drew an evolving ‘expanding flat’ pattern, forecasting a peak in Oct.’07 to within 29 points of the actual high and the following crash to within 59 points – this is not possible unless there are some defining ‘natural laws’ at work – a ‘deterministic’ process!

If we’re prepared to come a little closer to the underlying principles of the EWP, then it’s not such a quantum leap to also explore the timing of major directional changes. I’ve investigated many aspects of cycle theory over the last 20-years, following in the footsteps of many others studying the works of Benner, Kondratiev, Kitchen, Juglar, Kuznets and the more well-known discoveries of W.D. Gann and Dewey’s double-triangular table – even astronomy/astrology and the mystic forecasts of such men, long forgotten, like Sepharial. Now I’d like to share with you something connected to cycles that I recently came across concerning a 7-year periodicity – the Shemitah.

The Shemitah 7-year cycle has gained awareness in recent months through different media outlets but prominently from Jonathan Cahn’s book ‘The Harbinger’ and subsequently exploited by Jeff Berwick. It states that the end of the current Shemitah cycle is on the 13th September 2015, in several days’ time. On two previous occasions, this cycle has triggered a significant stock market sell-off – in September 2008, during the ‘financial-crisis’ when the Dow Jones collapsed by -29% and when the World Trade Center was destroyed in September 2001 with the Dow falling by -16% per cent. But this time, the current Shemitah cycle also begins a 50th year ‘Jubilee’, something that W.D. Gann was aware of from his cycle work.

So I began taking a good hard look at this, starting my own research into the Shemitah and scrutinising the exact dates of its beginning, its end. Not only that, I plotted how its effect on the Dow Jones Index occurred over the last 100 years. Well, that research was published in last month’s institutional Elliott Wave Navigator report, and I believe it to be so important, that I’d like to share it with you too!

The Shemitah 7-year cycle is just part of the EW-Navigator, but for the moment, just concentrate on this. The report includes tables of how the Dow Jones Index performed during the seventh year of the Shemitah and also what effect it had on the markets in the 3-months that followed its completion. So there you have it!…don’t miss out on this exciting time to follow how the end of the current Shemitah cycle will pan out – the exact date is the 13th September!

You can download the EW-Navigator report and the Shemitah 7-year cycle section from the ‘Specials’ section of the EW-Compass software – ABSOLUTELY FREE. Don’t delay, ensure your subscription is up-to-date.

Sincerely,

Peter Goodburn

SPECIALEW-COMPASS REPORT OFFER by
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Where can I download the Shemitah Report? Login/Subscribe to the EW-Compass report. A new window with the report will open – here click on any of the charts or ‘View online report’ and on the right side click on the tab ‘Specials’! Here are various long-term reports ready for download.

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