The Silver Wheaton Difference!
by WaveTrack International| September 22, 2016 | 1 Comment
Silver Wheaton – Metals & Mining Update
[THE FOLLOWING IS AN EXTRACT FROM WAVETRACK’S INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY SERVICES]
Many of the silver miners formed simultaneous lows last January (2016) which have since triggered new intermediate & medium-term uptrends. For some, the January lows ended counter-trend zig zag/double zig zag patterns dating back to pre-financial-crisis highs of Nov.’07/April 2008 i.e. Silver Standard Resources, Pan-American Silver Corp. whilst Silver Wheaton Corp. simply ended a smaller counter-trend phase of declines that began from the April ’11 highs. The big difference was that Silver Wheaton Corp. did not break below its financial-crisis low of 2.51 whilst the others did in order to complete their own corrective patterns. This means that Silver Wheaton Corp. is outperforming relative to its 2011 high.
There is scant historical data for these equities which makes intermediate/medium-term forecasting difficult, in terms of precise wave counting but especially true for amplitude measurements. All we do know is that if medium-term Fibonacci-Price-ratios are used for Silver Standard Resources & Pan-American Silver Corp., measuring their initial advances from major lows of August ’98 and April ’01 respectively into those pre-financial-crisis highs, adding these fib. 100% ratios for an equality measurement from the Jan.’16 lows, then upside targets are towards 279.00+/- and 98.50+/-. That’s gains of 7,543% and 1,730%. For Silver Wheaton Corp. a similar fib. 100% equality ratio is used measuring the post-financial-crisis upswing then adding this to the Jan.’16 low of 10.04 to yield targets towards 190.40+/- reflecting potential gains of 1,800% per cent. As historical data is even shorter for Silver Wheaton Corp., such targets could be erroneous. For the time being, we rely on the internal structure of January’s developing five wave impulse advance to determine that a minimum upside target towards 71.00+/- is viable during the next couple of years.
Elliott Wave Case Study
There is still doubt in many quarters of the commodity markets that industrial metals, like silver have begun new uptrends. It was earlier this year when commodity prices extended lower in January/February that mainstream analysts were marking prices heavily down alongside forecasts of incremental U.S. interest rate rises. Neither were realised. Even though some impressive gains have since taken place, sceptics continue to argue the bearish case that rallies are simply counter-trend – that major secular-bear downtrends are in progress. The purpose of examining price declines of Silver Wheaton Corp. during the year-2011/2016 period is an attempt to ‘proof’ this was just a counter-trend sequence within a prevailing uptrend.
Silver Wheaton Corp. – Weekly – Forecast
An important high formed in April ’11 at 47.60 – see fig #1. As historical data is limited (begins July ’05), this high represented a new record high which for the purposes of examination, ended primary wave 3 although we can’t be certain. But what is very tangible is the way the subsequent declines have unfolded as primary wave 4 – into a precise Elliott Wave corrective pattern, a seven price-swing double zig zag labelled in intermediate degree, (A)-(B)-(C)-(X)-(A)-(B)-(C).
There are some interesting aspects of this pattern. For example, it began with a leading-expanding-diagonal as wave (A), completing into the May ’12 low at 22.94. This is quite an unusual start for a multi-year decline, but perfectly acceptable. Wave (B) rallies followed, complying with one of R.N. Elliott’s guidelines where retracements head back towards ‘fourth wave preceding degree’, as it did ending at 41.30. Wave (C) declines then got underway, unfolding into a more common five wave ‘expanding-impulse’ pattern defined where its 3rd wave undergoes ‘price-expansion’, eventually ending at 17.75. This is an extension to ‘alternation’ as we know it – so this guideline adopts the concept that if wave (A) unfolds into a ‘diagonal-impulse’ then wave (C) has a tendency to unfold into a more simplistic ‘expanding-impulse’ (and vice-versa).
Now it’s worth noting Fibonacci-Price-Ratio analysis because extending wave (A) by a fib. 38.2% ratio projects the terminal low for wave (C) towards 17.36+/-. The actual low ended just a fraction higher at 17.75 – good enough to verify!
TIP: Why use a fib. 38.2% ratio and not 61.8%? One of the fib-price-ratio guidelines that we’ve documented is this – when wave (B) retraces wave (A) by a fib. 50% ratio or more, then extend wave (A) by a fib. 38.2% ratio to determine the terminal completion of wave (C). If on the other hand, wave (B) ends shorter than a fib. 50%, use 61.8%.
The next observation was something unusual. Intermediate wave (X) unfolded into a three wave triangle, not a conventional five wave sequence. Each of these three price-swings subdivide into 3’s three’s, but the completion at 27.66 leaves behind only a three wave triangle. We’ve documented these in the past and have archived them for reference, but the fact that they can occur is enough to validate one trading guideline that we use daily – never await the completion of a five price-swing triangle to take a trade – always attempt to initiate the trade at the end of the third sequence. Unless this is an expanding triangle, trading wave ‘c’s completion won’t stop you out as wave ‘e’ will normally complete within wave ‘c’s range.
The secondary zig zag pattern began from 27.66 with wave (A) ending at 16.57 – nothing unusual about this except that it ended up being quite a bit shorter than wave (C). Now, to determine a terminal low for the secondary zig zag, the first between 47.60-17.75 must be extended by two ratios – fib. 38.2% and 61.8% projecting downside targets to either 12.18+/- or 9.65+/-. Then, cutting the secondary zig zag from 27.66 by a fib. 61.8% ratio to both downside levels, an interim target for the secondary (A) wave is derived, to either 16.70+/- or 14.40+/-. When wave (A) ended at 16.57, close to the 16.70+/- level it originally heightened the probability of wave (C) eventually ending at 12.18+/-.
When wave (C) did get underway, the internal structure of the pattern did not compete a five wave subdivision into the 12.18+/- level, so this was the first indication that it would eventually extend to the next ‘golden-section’ 0.618 number towards 9.65+/-. The actual low formed at 10.04 but justifying that golden-section ratio with a reversal-signature afterwards. It’s also a good idea to compare Silver Wheaton Corps. pattern with its peers – this often assists in determining a more exact, terminal low.
The rest is history – a new multi-year uptrend has since begun.
For information on WaveTrack’s INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY SERVICES, please contact the HELP-DESK located at the top of our home page www.wavetrack.com or visit WaveTrack’s On-Deman Services page.
Nikkei-Biotech
by WaveTrack International| August 5, 2016 | 4 Comments
NBI Biotechnology | Nikkei 225 – Daily
Unlikely Partners – late-June lows trade just a few pips below February low – major Elliott Wave significance.
This positive-correlation chart ties together the most unlikely partners. What connection is there between the NBI Biotechnology index and the Nikkei 225 index? Probably little, but the correlation is very distinct.
What is most impressive is the way that each index declined just a few points below the Feb.’16 lows during the late-June, post-Brexit sell-off. When this occurred for the Nikkei, it effectively negated the concept of ending primary wave 4’s counter-trend decline from last years’ high earlier, into the Feb.’16 low. It means that a zig zag into the Feb.’16 low is currently being balanced by a corrective pattern prior to beginning another, secondary zig zag to even lower levels.
The NBI index has outperformed relative to its April high, but as it also declined marginally lower last June, this is simply an expanding flat correction prior to the commencement of another, severe decline to lower lows.
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Tags: Biotech
TRADERS WORLD MAGAZINE – Elliott Wave
by WaveTrack International| July 14, 2016 | No Comments
Read WaveTrack’s latest Case Study on Fibonacci and United Technology on page 81
WaveTrack’s head analyst Peter Goodburn published his latest indepth Elliott Wave article in this edition on page 81 ‘Elliott Wave Analysis Case Study + Fibonacci of United Technologies’. Check it out! Traders World #63
Larry Jacobs the Editor in Chief of the Traders Word Magazine created this specific edition to address common trading mistakes, e.g. have you ever watched a stock go down and down until it loses most of its value? Or have you gotten out way too soon and sold a stock that went up and up and left big profits on the table? If you have experiences this then this new Traders World edition has insightful articles and investing strategies that can save you from catastrophic hits to your account in even the most turbulent market conditions.
Larry Jacobs knows that even the most seasoned money managers have problems when it comes to the impact of outside events on their stocks. He believes that the development of risk management strategies are essential for sustained success. There are a variety of techniques that you can use by reading Traders World magazine. Download the latest edition here: Traders World #63
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Tags: United Technology
FOREX and INTEREST RATES – Post-Brexit Video Update!
by WaveTrack International| June 27, 2016 | No Comments
Forex and Interest Rates Video Update! Post-Brexit – Order resides in Chao
POST-BREXIT – Order resides in Chaos!
This mid-year video update is the third and final installment in the three-part series of Elliott Wave Forecasts. Part III takes a look at the developing trends of CURRENCIES & INTEREST RATES and comes just a couple of days following the U.K.’s referendum ‘Brexit’ vote.
We take a look at the aftermath of the Brexit and attempt to answer whether there’s been any material change in the larger trends of global currency pairs and crosses that were already in motion beforehand. We’ll be covering over 48 charts and examining the Elliott Wave pattern development of the following:
• US$ index
• Euro/US$
• Stlg/US$
• US$/Yen
• US$/CHF
• AUD/US$
• US$/CAD
• Euro/Stlg
• Euro/Yen
• Asian ADXY
• US$/ZAR
• US$/BRL
• US$/CNY
Major cycles are also updated along with a cursory look at the US$ dollar versus the Korean Won, Singapore Dollar, Indian Rupee, Taiwan Dollar, Thai Baht, Malaysian Ringgit, Indonesia Rupiah and the Philippine Peso.
Sterling/British Pound has obviously seen the largest movements following the Brexit announcement, but you might be surprised to see how it looks within the long-term trend against the US$ dollar. We also find some confirmatory pattern development for Sterling/British Pound against the Euro.
In terms of interest rate analysis, we add the U.K.’s UK10yr yield analysis for the first time into the video series. We take a look at its long-term yield decline from the inflationary heights of the early 1980’s and what impact last week’s decline had when it traded down to new 35-year lows. We also clarify the ongoing trends for the US10yr treasury yield with updated target levels for year-end – plus the very latest effects of the ECB’s recent attempts to stem deflation in the Eurozone and the Bund Yield’s safe-haven effects following Brexit.
• US 30yr Yields
• US 10yr Yields
• US 10yr Yields Cycle
• Germany 10yr Yields
• UK 10yr Yields
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This is the most insightful and precise Elliott Wave financial forecast available.
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Visit us @ www.wavetrack.com or read more about our STOCK INDICIES VIDEO UPDATE here
Visit us @ www.wavetrack.com or read more about our COMMODITIES VIDEO UPDATE here
BREXIT and Elliott Wave
by WaveTrack International| June 14, 2016 | No Comments
EuroStoxxBanks | US10yr Yields – Daily
Elliott Wave Triangle – Eurostoxx Banks index + US10yr Treasury Yield Forewarns Decline Ahead of Brexit Poll Change. Elliott Wave can be a powerful tool for financial forecasting – independent insights which can predict when newsflow is failing to give a clear answer.
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Tags: Brexit
COMMODITIES Resurgence! Semi-Annual Video Update!
by WaveTrack International| June 10, 2016 | No Comments
Commodity – Resurgence! New Elliott Wave Video Forecast
We’re pleased to announce the publication of WaveTrack’s mid-year video update of medium-term forecasts for COMMODITIES!
Back in January this year, WaveTrack International’s annual 2016 Elliott Wave Commodity forecasts forewarned of an imminent and major low being approached for all of the main sectors, Base Metals, Precious Metals and Energy/Crude Oil contracts. It didn’t take long for this to be realised! Led slightly earlier by Precious Metals, Gold and Silver bottomed the previous month, in December, closely followed by double-bottom activity in Crude and Brent Oil – Base Metals also responded in major reversals although less enthusiastic in their subsequent advances. Gold has since traded higher by +24% per cent, silver by +32% per cent, Crude Oil by a massive 92% per cent and copper so far lagging but higher by +18% per cent. Some of the commodity equities we identified as big buying opportunities, especially those for precious metals came good with Newmont Mining up by a massive +194% per cent!
Precious and Base metals have since given back some of those initial gains but the BIG MESSAGE derived from these initial movements is this – we can expect even higher levels during the next several years.
In this mid-year update, we’ll be updating all of the contracts shown last January, plus a few new correlations that we hope will distil and clarify some of the ongoing trends –
The COMMODITIES list includes medium/long-term Elliott Wave analysis for the following:
In this video Peter discusses the various intricacies revealed by his correlation studies to forecast yet another supporting strong evidence of a Commodity Resurgence.
We’ll send you a personal link so that you can watch the video, anytime at your convenience.
COMMODITY TRACK RECORD SAMPLE:
Commodities – Newmont Mining – Weekly
Since then, Newmont Mining has traded higher by an amazing +108% per cent!
And if you followed the CURRENCY video in combination with the Emerging Market and Commodity outlooks, you would have been fully prepared for a big change in the US$ dollar, and related EM/Commodity Currencies, like the Canadian Dollar:
Currencies – USD vs. CAD – Weekly
CONTACT US NOW VIA EMAIL – SELECT YOUR PACKAGE
Single Video – $48.00 – PART II COMMODITIES
Triple Package offer – $96.00 (saving 33%)! – PART I – PART II – PART III
PART III will be available in a few weeks’ time – we’re working on it!
HOW CAN YOU RECEIVE THE VIDEO FORECAST?
To receive your VIDEO UPDATE please click here to contact us.
– Please state if you wish to purchase the SINGLE VIDEO for COMMODITIES for USD 48.00?
– Or opt for the TRIPLE PACKAGE for USD 96.00 in total?
– Next we will send you a PayPal payment request and provide you with the video link & PDF report once confirmed.
This is the most insightful and precise Elliott Wave financial forecast available.
Most sincerely,
WaveTrack’s Elliott Wave Team
Visit us @ www.wavetrack.com or read more about our STOCK INDICIES VIDEO UPDATE here
GOLD – Just for the record
by WaveTrack International| May 31, 2016 | No Comments
Gold (LME) – 420 mins. – Track Record
Just for the record! This forecast has been published by WaveTrack’s Elliott Wave team on the 29th March 2016! If you follow Gold – the result is pretty impressive. Or it perhaps not if you understand Elliott Wave and can forecast an Expanding Flat correction for GOLD?
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XME Index (ETF) – Elliott Wave Symmetry
by WaveTrack International| May 30, 2016 | No Comments
XME – Metals & Mining Index (ETF) – (AMEX) – 120 mins.
The XME index (ETF) is a composite index of the major mining companies, totaling 38. Their interests span across many different commodities including the major metals miners such as Freeport McMoran Copper, Noranda Aluminium but also Arch Coal, Newmont Mining Gold and United States Steel, to name a few.
This year’s annual 2016 Elliott Wave forecasts announced an imminent low was forming, ending declines that began from the April ’11 highs. The XME was no exception – important lows were also being approached by the entire commodity asset-class.
Since January’s low, a near-perfect five wave impulse pattern has unfolded higher, assigned to minor degree, i-ii-iii-iv-v. Its 3rd wave underwent ‘price-expansion’ which is consistent with approximately 80-85% per cent of ‘expanding’ impulse patterns where third waves are normally the longest of the three sequences. The 5th wave is slightly shorter than the 1st but that’s quite okay with a visible five wave subdivision in the pattern to its terminal high at 25.13.
From a geometric, ratio/proportion perspective, there is also a visible adherence to the Fibonacci sequence. Extending the 1st wave to 15.53 by a fib. 161.8% ratio projects a terminal high for the 5th wave to 25.68 – with the actual high finishing the pattern at 25.13, this is accurate especially when taking into account the slight price-spike that ended the 1st wave high.
A counter-trend pattern is now in full swing to the downside. The activity so far suggests this is taking the form of a double zig zag pattern although a single zig zag count is also possible. Extending the initial downswing to 20.01 by a fib. 61.8% ratio projects a terminal low towards 17.38+/-. This measurement is valid for both the single or double zig zag pattern. Remember, should prices test the 17.38+/- level, be aware that the pattern could still mutate into a triple zig zag by searching for even deeper retracement levels.
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Tags: XME Index
STOCK INDEX VIDEO – Code Word “Re-Synchronisation”
by WaveTrack International| May 26, 2016 | 2 Comments
ANNOUNCEMENT | 24th May 2016
MID-YEAR ELLIOTT WAVE VIDEO SERIES – PART I/III – STOCK INDICES
Elliott Wave Price Forecasts & Cycle Projections for 2016/17
Re-Synchronisation of Developed vs. Emerging Markets!
We’re pleased to announce the publication of WaveTrack’s mid-year video update of medium-term forecasts for STOCK INDICES!
Since the inaugural edition of the EW-Compass report was published, you’ve asked for accompanying medium/long-term analysis in gaining a broader perceptive of Elliott Wave pattern development for many of the world’s major indices. So we’ve taken many charts from our institutional Elliott Wave Forecast database and compiled them into a video series, publishing each December/January, exactly for this purpose in preparation for the coming year.
As the demand for more indices grew, so did our task in maintaining them to a sufficient standard – no problem! So now, we’ve set aside sufficient resources to ensure the medium/long-term outlooks are sent to you – not just once but TWICE a year!
There are over 120 charts being maintained round the clock so it’s necessary to split the videos into THREE parts – Part I STOCK INDICES, PART II COMMODITIES & PART III CURRENCIES & INTEREST RATES.
PART I Stock Indices VIDEO is available NOW!
This latest update of U.S., European and Global/Emerging market indices covers 40 newly illustrated Elliott Wave forecasts of the medium and long-term time-series. Our Chief Elliott Wave analyst and Founder of WaveTrack International, Peter Goodburn is again your host. Once again, he talks us through all of the main themes and up-coming changes that are apparent within the pattern development of the major markets. He also illustrates some of the major cycles for the benchmark S&P 500 index, expounding his articulate knowledge of cyclicity obtained from his 25-year study of luminaries such as Edward Dewey and W.D. Gann.
The stock index list includes medium/long-term Elliott Wave analysis for the following:
• Recap of S&P forecasts of last several years
– Performance – Secular-Bear vs. Secular-Bull
• Comparative Charts of Developed Markets vs. Emerging Markets:
– highlighting Re-Synchronisation
• Affirmation of last year’s S&P forecasts
– extended 3rd or 5th wave development
• Weekly S&P composite cycle and its trend for the next 12-18 month period
• S&P Elliott Wave counts for the next several months incl. specific target levels
• Another look at the 18yr and 43.5yr cycles
• S&P from the Great Depression lows and ultimate targets
• Dow Jones & Fibonacci perfection!
• Nasdaq 100 – positive correlation and 6-12 month price objectives
• Russell 2000 – small-cap outlook
• Sectors – KBW Banking Index
• Sectors – Nasdaq (NBI) Biotechnology
• Europe – Eurostoxx 50
• Europe – Xetra Dax
• MSCI Emerging Market Index – RE-SYNCHRONISATION
• MSCI BRIC (Brazil-Russia-India-China)
• Brazil – Bovespa Index
• Russia – RTS Index
• India – Sensex Index
• China – MSCI China Index
• Shanghai Composite
• China Enterprises
• MSCI Hong Kong
• Hang Seng
• Singapore Straits Times
• Australia – All-Ordinaries
• Japan – Nikkei 225 Index
Peter’s work is absolutely unique – you’ll be taking a look at Elliott Wave counts never seen anywhere else – GUARENTEED!
His 25-years of ground-breaking research into the seamless adherence of pattern development unfolding within specific geometric, Fibonacci dimensions provides the foundation for all the Elliott Wave forecasts shown in this video. This has enabled Peter to identify major directional changes ahead of time over the last sixteen years – for example:
In last December’s Stock Index update, Peter described how major indices were trending lower but with the S&P’s cycle analysis signalling a major low in late-January/February – see this cycle analysis below…
S&P 500 – Weekly -Composite Cycle
…and how the KBW Banking Index was finalising a major low before resuming its medium-term uptrend…
WaveTrack’s KBW Banking Index Forecast – Weekly
These were just two hints that markets were going to get off to a shaky start, but then turn around to resume larger uptrends!
Get Up-to-date on the next 6-month outlook – & beyond!
As an Elliott Wave Compass subscriber, we’ve ensured you have access to this Institutional–grade analysis at very modest expense.
PART I Stock Indices VIDEO is available now, at only $48.00!
We’ll send you a personal link so that you can watch the video, anytime at your convenience.
And if you’d like to subscribe to the up-coming COMMODITIES & CURRENCIES videos in PART II & PART III, you can receive ALL THREE for $96.00! – that’s a saving of 33% per cent!
• Single Video – $48.00
• Triple Package offer – $96.00 (saving 33%)!
If you saw the EW forecasts for the COMMODITIES Video published in January’s PART II update, you’d find that downside targets were successfully achieved!…here’s an extract:
Commodities – Newmont Mining – Weekly
Since then, Newmont Mining has traded higher by an amazing +108% per cent!
And if you followed the CURRENCY video in combination with the Emerging Market and Commodity outlooks, you would have been fully prepared for a big change in the US$ dollar, and related EM/Commodity Currencies, like the Canadian Dollar:
Currencies – USD vs. CAD – Weekly
CONTACT US NOW VIA EMAIL – SELECT YOUR PACKAGE
Single Video – $48.00 – PART I STOCK INDICES
Triple Package offer – $96.00 (saving 33%)! – PART I – PART II – PART III
PARTS II & III will be available in a few weeks’ time – we’re working on it!
HOW CAN YOU RECEIVE THE VIDEO FORECAST?
To receive your VIDEO UPDATE please click here to contact us.
– Please state if you wish to purchase the SINGLE VIDEO for STOCK INDICES for USD 48.00?
– Or opt for the TRIPLE PACKAGE for USD 96.00 in total?
– Next we will send you a PayPal payment request and provide you with the video link & PDF report once confirmed.
We’re sure you’ll reap the benefits – don’t forget to contact us with any Elliott Wave questions – Peter is always keen to hear you views, queries and comments.
Most sincerely,
WaveTrack’s Elliott Wave Team
Visit us @ www.wavetrack.com
DJ Transportation Average – The Beginning of a Major Advance
by WaveTrack International| April 22, 2016 | No Comments
The price declines that began unfolding for the DJ Transportation Average from the November ’14 all-time-high of 9310.20 ended a typical counter-trend zig zag pattern last January at 6403.30. This is labelled as a 4th wave retracement within the upward progress of intermediate wave (3) that began its uptrend from the Oct.’11 low. A 5th wave advance is now engaged to the upside with ultimate targets towards 10876.20+/- derived where it unfolds by a fib. 61.8% ratio of the net advance of the 1st-3rd waves.
It may take another year or so before the 10876.20+/- number is reached with the condition that it subdivides into a five wave expanding-impulse pattern, labelled in minute degree, 1-2-3-4-5.
DJ Transportation Average – 60 mins. – WaveTrack International
Minute wave 1 began this uptrend last January from 6403.20 – see fig #1. It too must subdivide into a smaller five wave expanding-impulse pattern (the term ‘expanding-impulse’ is given to five wave patterns that contain ‘price-expansion’ in one of the impulse waves, i.e. 1-3-5 – in other words, one of the waves ‘extends’ so that it measures larger than the other two, commonly occurring in the 3rd wave position – this differentiates it from a ‘diagonal-impulse’ that does not contain the quality of ‘price-expansion’ – a diagonal contains ‘overlap’ because its 3rd wave has not expanded the price action).
The DJ Transportation Average’s upside progress began hesitantly, building into a series of gradual upside movements in a step-like progression associated with a sequence of 1-2-1-2-1-2’s. These are a function of ‘fractalisation’ where a 3rd wave subdivides into smaller degrees of trend prior to ‘price-expansion’. This is evident in the DJTA upswing until a 3rd-of-3rd-of-3rd wave advance began mid-February. The conclusion of price-expansion as this third wave ended on the 17th February at 7383.10. The series of 1-2’s, three of them in total must ultimately be followed by an equal amount of 4-5’s, i.e. 4-5-4-5-4-5. Two 4-5’s have so far completed, a third 4th wave as minuette wave [iv] into the early-April low at 7623.80. This leaves just one final 5th wave advance, as minuette wave [v] to develop higher.
A final upside target is measured towards the 8462.60+/- to 8491.70+/- levels. These are derived from two ‘golden-section’ measurements of the entire impulse pattern from the Jan. ’16 low. The point where price-expansion began at 7129.40 is extended from the Jan.’16 low by a fib. 161.8% ratio that projects to 8462.60+/-. Also, extending minuette waves [i]-[iv] by a fib. 61.8% ratio projects to 8491.70+/-.
So these become the main target levels for the completion of this impulse pattern. Naturally, a counter-trend decline will then begin a larger 2nd wave pullback. It will be interesting to see how deep that one evolves!
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