1 Common Factor you need to know! EURUSD – USD Index (DXY)

by WaveTrack International| November 27, 2017 | No Comments

EURUSD and US Dollar Index

1 Common Factor = 1 Elliott Wave Pattern

The recent EURUSD revival from the early-November low of 1.1554 seems like it’s resumed the larger uptrend that has been unfolding all year. But a closer look at the pattern structure within its counter-trend zig zag decline from September’s high of 1.2092 tells us otherwise.

The initial five wave decline to 1.1669 seems obvious enough to end wave [a], but what about the next decline from 1.1881 to 1.1554? Has that also subdivided into a satisfactory five wave pattern as wave [c]? See fig #1 (left).

EURUSD and US Dollar Index (DXY) – 360 mins – Financial Forecast by WaveTrack International

At the time of the low at 1.1554, we labelled the decline from 1.1881 as completing only a THREE WAVE SEQUENCE, not a five. Besides, the overall decline was too short to complete wave [c] within September’s zig zag pattern – it’s much shorter than wave [a]. Yes, short ‘c’ waves can sometimes occur, about 15% per cent of the time. Yet, that doesn’t explain why wave [c] only unfolded into a three wave sequence.

Expanding Flats

One viable explanation is that minor wave b. within September’s zig zag decline is unfolding into an EXPANDING FLAT, subdividing 3-3-5. That would explain why the decline between 1.1881 to 1.1554 unfolded into only a THREE WAVE SEQUENCE, not a five! Because it ended minute wave b, the second sequence of the expanding flat.

If correct, then the EURUSD’s upswing from 1.1554 as minute wave c of the expanding flat must be coming towards completion right now, at 1.1963+/-. It must also subdivide into a five wave pattern. That is actually possible! In this case it would commonly end above minute wave a’s origin by a fib. 38.2% extension ratio. This is now right into the current level at 1.1957.

All that is needed is a qualifiable ‘reversal-signature’ to take place over the next trading session. A strong push below the previous high at 1.1861 would be enough. In this case this would be the third wave peak within minute wave c ’s impulse advance.

The equivalent expanding flat pattern for the US$ Dollar index can be seen in fig #1, right. It is just testing completion in today’s low at 92.58+/-.

Failure to respond to these targets would negate this forecast, instead confirming 1.1554 and 95.15 ended September’s zig zags, albeit with deficiencies in both pattern and measurement.

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