Dow Jones – Triangle Break-Out?

by WaveTrack International| March 29, 2019 | No Comments

Dow Jones – Triangle Break-Out?

There was bearish divergence between the major U.S. indices during the last month. The Dow Jones (DJIA) peaked on February 25th at 26238 (futures) remaining below since whilst the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 stretched to higher-highs on March 22nd.

The S&P and Nasdaq have since declined as intra-hourly five wave impulse patterns into their March 25th lows of 2789.50 and 7290.00 respectively. This, of course, significantly increases the probability they’ve ended December’s larger five-wave uptrend.

Dow Jones – Range-Trading

But the Dow’s range-traded over the last month. At no time has it declined into an obvious five wave pattern to corroborate a larger corrective downswing has begun. In actual fact, the range-trading is consistent with a contracting/symmetrical-triangle pattern – see fig #1.

Dow Jones 30 Index Forecast – 120 mins. by WaveTrack International

It’s not quite finished yet though. The triangle is generally composed of five main price-swings, in this case, labelled [a]-[b]-[c]-[d]-[e] where wave [d] is currently pushing higher – fib-price-ratio measurements project wave [d] towards 25994+/-. Wave [e] would then decline towards 25520+/-, derived where wave [e] unfolds by a fib. 61.8% ratio of wave [c].

If price activity confirms to these next two price-swings, it would almost certainly result in ending the triangle as a 4th wave within December’s five-wave uptrend, followed by a 5th wave break-out to the upside.

A break to the upside wouldn’t necessarily mean a break to higher-highs for the S&P and Nasdaq. Don’t forget, they’ve traded down into five wave patterns already. This indicates they will remain below their existing highs should the Dow break higher. And if the Dow breaks higher and the others don’t. Then a different kind of bearish divergence will occur – swapping roles this time!

More in tonight’s report!

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WaveTrack International is a financial price forecasting company dedicated to the Elliott Wave principle and work of the R.N. Elliott. Clients include Investment Banks, Pension Funds, Total/Absolute-Return/Hedge Funds, Sovereign Wealth Funds, Corporate and Market-Making/Trading institutions and informed individuals -- & just about anyone who is affected by directional price change.

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Dow Jones – Triangle Break-Out?