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Elliott Wave Financial Price Forecasting

Commodities 2020 Mid-Year Video Series

by WaveTrack International| July 15, 2020 | No Comments

Commodities Video by WaveTrack International - ‘Inflation-Pop’ Lift-Off – Commodities Hit Major Lows – Next 2-3 Year Uptrends Underway

Commodities Hit Major Lows –‘Inflation-Pop’ Lift-Off – Next 2-3 Year Uptrends Underway

We’re pleased to announce today’s release is PART II, COMMODITIES – Part I was released last month and Part III will be published in late-July

PART I – STOCK INDICES – out now!
• PART II – COMMODITIES – out now!

• PART III – CURRENCIES & INTEREST RATES – coming soon!

Elliott Wave Forecasts – Mid-Year 2020 – Summary

  • The Commodity Super-Cycle began from the Great Depression lows of year-1932. Typically unfolding over the next 76-year period into an Elliott Wave impulse pattern ending in year-2008. Since then, a two-decade long corrective downswing has begun a new deflationary era but with pockets of rising inflationary pressures
  • One of those pockets of rising inflationary pressures resumed in early 2016, took a pause in 2018-2020 and is now set to surge higher through 2023/24. This is the final phase of the ‘Inflation-Pop’ cycle
  • Commodities have undergone extreme sell-offs during the COVID-19 panic that lasted through the first-quarter of 2020. Last January’s report cited a ‘Q1 Sell-Off’ prior to a major recovery – and that’s exactly what’s happened! All commodity sectors were hit hard, Base Metals, Precious Metals & Energy but especially Crude/Brent oil – since then, major recoveries have begun and these are seen lasting into the next cycle peaks due in 2023/24
  • BASE METALS – Most of the base metals ended their commodity super-cycle peaks in 2006/07. Since then, a dominant deflationary cycle began with the financial-crisis sell-off but the subsequent advances from the 2008/09 lows triggered a mid-term ‘inflation-pop’ cycle induced by central bank’s liquidity programmes. This continues to this day, despite secondary declines during this year’s COVID-19 collapse. Important lows formed last March with prices now ready to trend significantly higher over the next 2-3 year period, many to new record highs led by Copper but also for Aluminium, Lead and Zinc
  • PRECIOUS METALS – Precious metals are trading into two sub-categories, safe-havens and industrials. Gold holds its safe-haven status although central banks’ new liquidity programmes triggered from the COVID-19 pandemic is the main contributor to gold’s inherent strength. Silver, platinum and palladium are all trading as industrial metals, are cyclical and mostly in sync with the rhythm of the stock market. However, gold is continuing its five wave bull market uptrend from the end-Dec.’15 low of 1046.45 but approaching a terminal 3rd wave around 1840.00-65.00+/-. This would allow a 4th wave corrective downswing to begin soon, lasting for the remainder of this year, and into next. Silver collapsed in March to 11.64 with this low ending the second sequence of a multi-year A-B-C expanding flat pattern – wave C is now engaged to the upside but its 1st wave approaching targets at 19.20-60+/-. Platinum hit downside targets last March at 580.10 ending A-B-C zig zag declines from all-time-highs – a new multi-year upside recovery has begun. Palladium’s outlook is uncertain having reached long-term upside objectives last February at 2880.87
  • ENERGY – March’s collapse in Crude/Brent oil triggered alternate count #2 downside targets into lows of 6.50 and 15.98 respectively, both ending A-B-C-X-A-B-C double zig zag corrective patterns that began from the all-time-highs of July ’08. Subsequent advances are labelled as the next sequence of a long-term triangle pattern where next upside targets for Crude oil are towards 81.75+/-, maybe higher and for Brent oil, towards minimum 97.60+/- into the ‘inflation-pop’ peak due in 2023/24. Shorter-term, Crude oil is testing upside resistance at 41.00+/-, opening the way for a multi-month corrective downswing targeting 20.50+/-, max. 16.25+/- and Brent oil towards 45.80+/- with corrective downside targets towards min. 30.65+/-, max. 27.00+/-. The XOP Oil & Gas index (ETF) formed an important low last March at 29.48 and is now engaged in a multi-year rally towards 118.00+/-
  • EW-Forecast Review – H1 2020

    The Annual 2020 report published last January (2020) highlighted first-quarter Q1 ’20 downside risk across the commodities sector – ‘…This specifically applies to base metals like Copper, Aluminium and Lead’…’Commodities like Crude/Brent oil are still some way from ending corrective X wave declines that began from the Oct.’18 highs. So far, downside targets are still -32% per cent below current levels…’. It continued…’ The probability of a Q1 dip in prices is evident across other asset classes – the US10yr treasury yield downtrend that began from the Oct.’18 peak of 3.262% remains incomplete, requiring another but final decline to lower-lows, below last September’s low of 1.429%. Also, U.S. stock markets are set to end last October’s uptrend – those gains of +16% per cent must be corrected to the downside…Various Base Metal Mining stocks are set to trade lower over the next few months too. The US$ dollar could flip higher for a few months, indicating the same risk-off event…’.

    Commodities and Coronavirus Aftermath

    These forecasts were realised as the coronavirus pandemic spread from China, across continental Europe and later to the United States. There was no contemplation at the time that the COVID-19 pandemic would be the catalyst for the expected declines across commodity markets. However, Elliott Wave patterns were already warning of a significant sell-off.

    Fig #1 - Track Record - CRB Cash Index - 2nd January 2020 by WaveTrack International

    Fig #1 – Track Record – CRB Cash Index – 2nd January 2020 by WaveTrack International

    COMMODITIES VIDEO - Fig #2 - Result! - CRB Cash Index - 2nd January 2020 by WaveTrack International

    Fig #2 – Result! – CRB Cash Index – 2nd January 2020 by WaveTrack International

    Price declines were even more severe that these bearish forecasts. Copper declined by -30% per cent. Crude/Brent oil collapsed by an unprecedented -90% per cent whilst industrial precious metal fell by -40% per cent. Even gold wobbled! And traded down -15% per cent into March’s low. Stock markets declined by -35% per cent whilst the US10yr yield traded down to historical lows of 0.378% per cent.

    Fig #3 – Track Record – MSCI EM and Copper Correlation Study – 4th January 2020 by WaveTrack International

    Fig #3 – Track Record – MSCI EM and Copper Correlation Study – 4th January 2020 by WaveTrack International

    Fig #4 – Result! – MSCI EM and Copper Correlation Study by WaveTrack International

    Fig #4 – Result! – MSCI EM and Copper Correlation Study by WaveTrack International

    Commodities and V-Shaped Recovery

    Commodities have certainly undergone a V-shaped recovery since forming important lows last March. Despite warnings of a second-wave of coronavirus infections spreading across the U.S. and South America, this is unlikely to lead to prices trending below last March’s lows. Base metals ended major corrective lows as did industrial precious metals together with Crude/Brent oil.

    Commodities Fig #5 – Track Record – GDX - Gold Miners Index – 9th January 2020 by WaveTrack International

    Fig #5 – Track Record – GDX – Gold Miners Index – 9th January 2020 by WaveTrack International

    Fig #6 – Track Record – Crude Oil - Count #2  – 9th January 2020 by WaveTrack International

    Fig #6 – Track Record – Crude Oil – Count #2 – 9th January 2020 by WaveTrack International

    Aftermath of Coronavirus Sell-Off

    V-shaped recoveries have begun from March’s lows and these are sustainable uptrends that are forecast unfolding over the next 2-3 years. But commodity trends don’t head higher in straight lines but are instead punctuated by intervals of corrective declines. Price advances are reaching interim upside targets right now.

    New Commodities Mid-Year 2020 Video – PART II/III

    We’ve amassed over 75 commodity charts from our EW-Forecast database in this mid-year 2020 video. Each one provides a telling story into the way Elliott Wave price trends are developing in this next INFLATION-POP’ phase of cycle development. We’re taking a look at some very specific patterns that span the entire SUPER-CYCLE, explaining why the super-cycle began from the GREAT DEPRESSION lows of 1932 and not from the lows of 1999 and how this ended in 2006-2008 and why the multi-decennial corrective downswing that began soon afterwards has taken the form of a very specific, but identifiable Elliott Wave pattern into the COVID-19 lows.

    We invite you to take this next step in our financial journey with us. Video subscription details are below. Just follow the links and we’ll see you soon!

    Most sincerely,

    Peter Goodburn
    Founder and Chief Elliott Wave Analyst
    WaveTrack International

    Commodities Video Part II

    Contents: 78 charts
    Time: 2 hours 10 mins.

    • CRB-Cash index
    • US Dollar index + Cycles
    • Copper + Cycles
    • Aluminium
    • Lead
    • Zinc
    • Nickel
    • Tin
    • XME Metals & Mining Index
    • BHP-Billiton
    • Freeport McMoran
    • Antofagasta
    • Anglo American
    • Kazakhmys Copper
    • Glencore
    • Rio Tinto
    • Teck Resources
    • Vale
    • Gold + Cycles
    • GDX Gold Miners Index
    • Newmont Mining
    • Amer Barrick Gold
    • Agnico Eagle Mines
    • AngloGold Ashanti
    • Silver + Cycles
    • XAU Gold/Silver Index
    • Platinum
    • Palladium
    • Crude Oil + Cycles
    • Brent Oil
    • XOP Oil and Gas Index

    How to Subscribe

    CONTACT US NOW VIA EMAIL – SELECT YOUR PACKAGE

    Single Video – *$48.00 – PART II COMMODITIES Video Outlook 2020 (January 2020)
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  • Each video runs for at least 1 hour 20 minutes and it’s packed with SPECIFIC Elliott Wave price-forecasts. The Stock Index Video is already nearly 2 hours long!.
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  • BONUS! The Commodities Video Mid-Year 2020 contains 78 charts and runs for 2 hours 10 mins. illustrated in the VIDEOS will be created into a .pdf document/report and sent to you so that you can always keep these to refer to!
  • PART III will be available in a few weeks’ time – we’re working on it!

    HOW CAN YOU RECEIVE THE VIDEO FORECAST?

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    About WTI

    WaveTrack International is a financial price forecasting company dedicated to the Elliott Wave principle and work of the R.N. Elliott. Clients include Investment Banks, Pension Funds, Total/Absolute-Return/Hedge Funds, Sovereign Wealth Funds, Corporate and Market-Making/Trading institutions and informed individuals -- & just about anyone who is affected by directional price change.

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