by Peter for WaveTrack International| August 19, 2014 | No Comments
The gold and silver decline that began from the April/Sep. ’11 highs is now more than 3 years in progress. The same can be said about gold miners including our benchmark GDX (ETF) index and some of its major equity components such as Newmont Mining, Goldcorp and Barrick Res. Like the GDX, these too have experienced sharp price declines during the last few years. There’s no doubt that our ‘inflation-pop’ scenario that forecasts new record highs during the next few years remains on track although the beginning of the next upsurge is still some months away as downside targets for the GDX, XAU and their components are still some way off. That’s not the case for Agnico-Eagle Mines though!
Basis Elliott Wave analysis, the decline that began from the March ’08 high of 83.45 has taken the form of a running flat pattern, labelled a-b-c in minor degree. Note the 3-3-5 subdivision in the pattern. This is atypical of the same (running/expanding) flat patterns unfolding over the same time period for the GDX and the other mining stocks quoted earlier. The final price-swing of this pattern as minor wave c. has unfolded into an ending expanding-diagonal pattern completing into the October ’13 low of 23.77. So whilst the GDX and the other mining stock flat patterns remain incomplete, Agnico Eagle Mines has already ended its entire counter-trend movement.
The following advance has since began intermediate wave (5) that ultimately will break into new record highs. Shorter-term, the price action from the 23.77 low is shown unfolding in a step like series of 1-2-1-2 sequences – another corrective decline is expected at some stage during the next few months, synchronising with final declines for the GDX etc. One more corrective pullback will offer the last chance to step in prior to an accelerative 3rd-of-3rd wave advance!