WaveTrack International

Elliott Wave Financial Price Forecasting

Hungarian Forint Elliott Wave analysis

by m.tamosauskas| August 4, 2014 | No Comments

Questions from our Elliott Wave Compass subscribers form an important part of our relationship at WaveTrack International, and this is especially true when we’re asked for a ‘helping-hand’ in analysing a contract that is not so often featuring in mainstream news. In this update, we are challenged into applying the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) to the Euro/Hungarian Forint currency pair. We hope this has a great benefit to our friends in Hungary and to those other traders in far-flung countries in other locations around the world – Peter Goodburn

Elliott Wave Analysis

The first approach in analysing anything for the first time is to identify correlations with similar contracts, especially those that are more familiar. This study began by taking a comparative look at the US$/Forint and the Euro/Rouble.

The US$/Hungarian Forint currency pair has trended higher since forming an important low in July ’08 at 143.37. The overall upswing that followed took the form of a zig zag, labelled (A)-(B)-(C) ending in March ’09 at 252.77. It is no coincidence that this effect coincided with the financial-crisis sell-off – see fig #1.

US$_Hungary Forint_140803

The subsequent decline could have resumed a new multi-year downtrend but it instead unfolded into a three price-swing sideways pattern that is interpreted as a horizontal flat, ending at 176.83 in May ’11 as wave (X). This suggests the initial zig zag upswing is transforming into a double zig zag. Extending the first zig zag by a fib. 38.2% ratio projects the second to 313.67.

The secondary zig zag sequence has since begun from 176.83 and corroborated by the fact that a five wave subdivision is identified in the advance to 252.00, ending wave (A). Extending this by a fib. 61.8% ratio projects wave (C) to 313.91 – note the convergence!

Notwithstanding shorter-term permutations during the next few months, what this intermediate-term wave count tells us is that the dominant direction is upwards for the next year or two.

The analysis of the Euro/ Hungarian Forint currency pair is more complex since January ’12 and especially from the Aug.’12 low of 274.44. Several short-term permutations are possible, so please do not consider this intermediate-term analysis suitable for shorter-term trading. Nonetheless, its basic structure from the July ’08 low of 228.01 is the same – see fig #2.

EURO_Hungary Forint_140804

If the same double zig zag pattern is unfolding higher, strengthening the Euro and weakening the Forint, then more upside potential seems likely during the equivalent 1-2 year period.

Interestingly, if the first zig zag, (A)-(B)-(C) to 317.13 is extended by a fib. 38.2% ratio, an upside target for the completion of the second projects upside targets to 359.73. Basis the equivalent upside targets for the US$/Forint, this equates to a Euro/US$ level at 1.1468+/-. As our subscribers know, this is one of our intermediate-term downside targets that is derived from the Euro/US$ analysis.

Extending the first zig zag by a larger fib. 61.8% ratio, upside projections measure to 388.85 – this is equivalent to 1.2396+/- for the Euro/US$, and again, independently, this number closely approximates to current analysis.

Closing Remarks

The overall structure of these double zig zag patterns in upside progress from the July ’08 lows appears sound. They certainly corroborate our more detailed analysis for the Euro/US$ that is updated twice-weekly in the EW-Compass reports. If you’re trading currencies and would like to join us as one of our subscribers, we’ve no doubt that we can assist in achieving your goals! If you’d like to see our currency track-record, please send us a request using the ‘Help-desk’, located at www.wavetrack.com

WaveTrack International Risk Disclaimer

WaveTrack International and its related publications apply R.N.Elliott’s ‘The Wave Principle’ to historical market price activity which categorises and interprets the progress of future price patterns according to this methodology. Whilst it may be reasonable to deduce a course of action regarding investments as a result of such application, at no time or on any occasion will specific securities, futures, options or commodities of any kind be recommended for purchase or sale. Publications containing forecasts are therefore intended for information purposes only. Any opinion contained in these reports is only a statement of our views and are based on information we believe to be reliable but no guarantee is given as to its accuracy or completeness. Markets are volatile and therefore subject to rapid an unexpected price changes. Any person relying on information contained in these reports does so at their own risk entirely and no liability is accepted by WaveTrack International in respect thereof.


About WTI

WaveTrack International is a financial price forecasting company dedicated to the Elliott Wave principle and work of the R.N. Elliott. Clients include Investment Banks, Pension Funds, Total/Absolute-Return/Hedge Funds, Sovereign Wealth Funds, Corporate and Market-Making/Trading institutions and informed individuals -- & just about anyone who is affected by directional price change.

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