WaveTrack International

Elliott Wave Financial Price Forecasting

Apple Inc. Set To Complete Medium-Term Uptrend With Ending/Diagonal Pattern

by WaveTrack International| July 23, 2018 | 5 Comments

Apple Inc. Set To Complete Medium-Term Uptrend With Ending/Diagonal Pattern
Nasdaq 100

The Nasdaq 100 index tracking over the last several months identified February’s advance approaching the completion of a zig zag pattern. That’s a huge danger signal warning that January’s initial corrective decline remains incomplete. In Elliott Wave terms, January/February’s decline is simply the first sequence within a developing three wave expanding flat pattern. February/July’s zig zag advance is ending the second sequence now, with a third declining sequence about to begin with downside targets -19% per cent below the July high.

But there is always an updside to a downside! The good news is that after the expanding flat pattern has ended, as a 4th wave correction, a 5th wave will then develop the next stage of the larger uptrend, targeting higher-highs.

These price sequences have a direct but positive correlation to Apple Inc.’s price development. Interestingly, even though its Elliott Wave pattern is entirely different.

Apple Inc.

Apple Inc. has a component weighting in the Nasdaq 100 of 11.306% per cent. It is indeed a key indicator of the general trend. Just over 2-years ago, on May 24th 2016, we issued a new buy-signal for Apple Inc. as it was just ending an intermediate degree 4th wave retracement at 96.43 having touched a low at 89.47. Since then, the stock has traded up to 194.20, a gain of 101% per cent – see fig #1 – inset, right. But what next?

Apple Inc. - APPL - Elliott Wave Financial Price Forecast by WaveTrack International

Apple Inc. – Elliott Wave Forecast 2018

Intermediate wave (5)’s advance from 89.47 has unfolded into a five wave expanding-impulse pattern, i-ii-iii-iv-v. But interestingly, the final advance as minor wave v. five has been identified as unfolding into a five wave diagonal-impulse pattern. Specifically, an ending/contracting-diagonal – see fig #1 – foreground, left.

Apple Inc. and the Elliott Wave Ending Diagonal Pattern

The diagonal has its characteristic wedge-shaped form. It is contracting as it moves towards completion, labelled in minute degree, 1-2-3-4-5. An ‘ending’ type diagonal like this one, where it is ending the larger uptrend as a fifth wave means its impulse waves, 1-3-5 have a tendency to subdivide into zig zags (or multiples). For example [a]-[b]-[c] which is very evident in Apple Inc.’s advances that began the diagonal from the June ’17 low. It is this characteristic that specifically endorses the diagonal, setting itself apart from just about any other pattern in Elliott’s compendium.

This analysis identifies a 3rd wave high as minute wave 3 ending into the June ’18 high of 194.20. However, the 4th wave, minute wave 4 remains incomplete to the downside. The late-June decline to 180.73 was not enough to complete the entirety of wave 4 – more downside is necessary. This 4th wave is labelled as unfolding into a zig zag where the final sequence pulls prices lower from around current levels, targeting 175.80+/-.

Apple Inc. and Fibonacci Price Ratios

This is derived by extending the 180.73 decline by a fib. 38.2% ratio. It tallies with the fib. 38.2% retracement of wave 3 three’s advance. Thus forming a fib-price-ratio convergence-matrix of support at this area. A fib. 61.8% ratio would otherwise extend this 4th wave towards 170.80+/- but a lower downside attempt like this is time-dependent. It will need to decline fairly rapidly so as to maintain the correct angle of the lower boundary-line of the diagonal.

This 4th wave decline correlates to the Nasdaq 100’s expected decline of -19% per cent referred to earlier. The percentages don’t exactly match. Apple Inc. would drop by only -9.4% per cent to 175.80+/- or -12.0% per cent to 170.80+/-, but that simply means it will outperform its peers.

Looking Ahead

Once the 4th waves for the Nasdaq 100 and Apple Inc. are out of the way, a 5th wave advance can begin for both. Apple Inc.’s upside target as minute wave 5 within the diagonal result in gains of +14-18% per cent – impressive!. Definitely, one to keep watching!

Are you trading the SP500, EuroStoxx, Nasdaq100, Russell 2000, Dow Jones 30, Dax, FTSE100, Shanghai Composite, Hang Seng or ASX200? Don’t miss WaveTrack’s regular updates in our bi-weekly EW-Compass Report! Ensure you’re tracking our Forex forecasts – subscribe online for the EW-COMPASS REPORT.

Visit us @ www.wavetrack.com and subsribe to our latest EW-COMPASS report!

Comments

  • Jay Sanderson

    Has the move up to new highs in AAPL invalidated this count? If still valid then their earnings next week would need to be pretty bad for a move below 180.

    • Hello Jay Sanderson, Not great that AAPL kicked to higher-high. Especially following what looked like a 5 down in June. But this is not enough to invalidate the current diagonal pattern. Most probably, the 4th wave is unfolding into an expanding flat which would explain why this latest
      upswing has punched to a higher-high. Final sequence should still attempt 175.80+/-. Let’s see!

  • Greg Beglaryan

    What about today’s movement to 196$ higher-high for App,and now i hear the most analysts wait 200$ +.will be your count cancelled too?

  • Can

    Hello Mr. Goodburn thank you for update 🙂
    Now that AAPL touched the level of 201.76 which is even higher than your forecasted level 201.24. After this upside move can we say that temporary decline attempt to 175 for AAPL is about to begin?

    • Hello, We believe that today’s strong push higher does require a different juggling of the diagonal. There is an element of ‘overlap’ when the price declined from 194.20 to 180.73 in June so at first glance. This would prevent counting this as a 4th wave retracement within an impulse upswing from 150.24…but as a line chart, this filters out the overlap which means the 150.24 upswing could be a five wave impulse, a 3rd wave within an ‘expanding-impulse’ pattern. Not a ‘diagonal-impulse’ as previously thought…that would still mean a 4th wave downswing is due to begin anytime…watch to see if some upside momentum loss occurs just above current levels, then turning lower. Very best wishes!

About WTI

WaveTrack International is a financial price forecasting company dedicated to the Elliott Wave principle and work of the R.N. Elliott. Clients include Investment Banks, Pension Funds, Total/Absolute-Return/Hedge Funds, Sovereign Wealth Funds, Corporate and Market-Making/Trading institutions and informed individuals -- & just about anyone who is affected by directional price change.

Subscribe to our feed

WTI Links

Search